Post by: BOWHUNTER45 on January 12, 2014, 11:52:31 AM
Post by: Ballance1 on January 12, 2014, 12:11:28 PM
Post by: Wea300mag on January 12, 2014, 12:13:47 PM
http://www.goskagit.com/sports/ (http://www.goskagit.com/sports/)
None are employed by the WDFW
Post by: starbailey on January 12, 2014, 12:14:55 PM
Post by: 50CalJim on January 12, 2014, 12:19:51 PM
I wonder how many years in between each tag?They usually get a Tag about every 4yrs. P.S Jeff called me this morning saying he's gonna try & get a Moose Dynasty show. :chuckle:
Post by: tonymiller7 on January 14, 2014, 12:08:43 PM
Post by: jackmaster on January 14, 2014, 12:14:54 PM
Post by: SkookumHntr on January 14, 2014, 12:23:35 PM
Post by: jackmaster on January 14, 2014, 12:27:16 PM
Post by: Atroxus on January 14, 2014, 02:54:56 PM
Post by: bobcat on January 14, 2014, 03:57:50 PM
Post by: Whitpirate on January 14, 2014, 08:33:27 PM
Post by: KNOPHISH on January 16, 2014, 07:27:10 AM
Post by: boneaddict on January 16, 2014, 07:37:04 AM
Quote
your odds improve overtime at least as you continue to put in.I think this is the biggest lie that they try to sell you with points.
YES, your points go up, but so do the other 10,000 (arbitruary number) that don't draw.
YES, your points are squared, but so are the other 10,000.
Then think about our youth, our kids coming into the system with nothing. Mathematically are their odds really tat much less than yours. There is some interesting Math involved.
Post by: The scout on January 16, 2014, 08:12:41 AM
Post by: NWWA Hunter on January 16, 2014, 08:18:48 AM
Post by: bobcat on January 16, 2014, 08:21:34 AM
Post by: Solohunter84 on January 16, 2014, 08:23:42 AM
Post by: Bob33 on January 16, 2014, 08:24:42 AM
There were 12,380 applications from 13,068 applicants.
The total number of “names in the hat” was 890,434.
There were 21 permits. Odds of drawing one of the 21 permits with the following number of points is shown below:
Points Odds "1 in…"
19 0.85% 118
18 0.76% 131
17 0.68% 147
16 0.60% 166
15 0.53% 189
14 0.46% 217
13 0.40% 251
12 0.34% 295
11 0.28% 351
10 0.24% 424
9 0.19% 524
8 0.15% 663
7 0.12% 866
6 0.08% 1178
5 0.06% 1697
4 0.04% 2651
3 0.02% 4712
2 0.01% 10601
1 0.00% 42402
Post by: The scout on January 16, 2014, 08:27:23 AM
Post by: Curly on January 16, 2014, 10:32:51 AM
Post by: RB on January 16, 2014, 10:41:14 AM
so your telling me there's a chance:chuckle:
:yeah:
Post by: Halo on January 16, 2014, 11:45:50 AM
Post by: boneaddict on January 16, 2014, 11:58:21 AM
Post by: Bob33 on January 16, 2014, 12:18:26 PM
Here are the actual odds for 49 Degrees North Any Moose, based on points in the 2012 draw.Here's a little more cheerful news. If everyone that applied in this example applied the next year, and no new applicants entering the draw, the odds would get worse for everyone with more than ten points. Applicants with 19 points would have 20 points the next year, and so forth. Because there are so many applicants with not many points, they tip the odds towards the lower end: the 1100 applicants with 1 point would have a total of 1100 names in the hat in the first year, but the second year they would have 4400. The applicant with a maximum 19 points would have a 1 in 118 chance the first year, but only a 1 in 130 chance the next.
There were 12,380 applications from 13,068 applicants.
The total number of “names in the hat” was 890,434.
There were 21 permits. Odds of drawing one of the 21 permits with the following number of points is shown below:
Points Odds "1 in…"
19 0.85% 118
18 0.76% 131
17 0.68% 147
16 0.60% 166
15 0.53% 189
14 0.46% 217
13 0.40% 251
12 0.34% 295
11 0.28% 351
10 0.24% 424
9 0.19% 524
8 0.15% 663
7 0.12% 866
6 0.08% 1178
5 0.06% 1697
4 0.04% 2651
3 0.02% 4712
2 0.01% 10601
1 0.00% 42402
Points "1 In" odds Points "1 In" odds
19 118 20 130
18 131 19 144
17 147 18 160
16 166 17 179
15 189 16 203
14 217 15 230
13 251 14 264
12 295 13 307
11 351 12 360
10 424 11 428
9 524 10 518
8 663 9 639
7 866 8 809
6 1,178 7 1,056
5 1,697 6 1,437
4 2,651 5 2,069
3 4,712 4 3,233
2 10,601 3 5,747
1 42,402 2 12,931
Post by: boneaddict on January 16, 2014, 02:24:03 PM
Post by: bobcat on January 16, 2014, 03:26:59 PM
Post by: Curly on January 16, 2014, 03:47:24 PM
Post by: Bob33 on January 16, 2014, 03:48:47 PM
Hope springs eternal, and everyone knows someone who "drew with just one point", or they look at "average points" and conclude they'll draw in the near future. Unfortunately, it just isn't so.
WDFW loves stories like the family that drew three moose permits. :tup:
Post by: boneaddict on January 16, 2014, 04:04:02 PM
Front the cash
One choice
One species
Choose OIL or elk and deer special permits
No points.
The latter not being possible really at this point without a civil war.
You have a better chance of drawing a moose tag right now in Washington, than a chance of them fixing their system. They have their hands in your pockets and those hands aren't coming out. Even all the incentive tags and multiple raffle tags and auction tags are ways to get more money out of your pockets.
Post by: Hoythunter on January 16, 2014, 07:17:48 PM
Post by: buckhorn2 on January 16, 2014, 07:41:25 PM
Post by: Hoythunter on January 17, 2014, 09:41:32 AM
Post by: PolarBear on January 17, 2014, 09:52:17 AM
Post by: Falcon on January 17, 2014, 06:35:46 PM
I have a few buddies that have drawn moose and sheep tags.
It's gonna happen.
Maybe not this year but it's gonna happen!
Post by: steeleywhopper on January 17, 2014, 06:51:12 PM
Post by: deaner on January 17, 2014, 07:11:40 PM
Post by: Halo on January 18, 2014, 07:06:25 AM
Post by: boneaddict on January 18, 2014, 07:21:17 AM
i might start going for the idaho tag at some point, after ive had plenty of time to learn the country there. guess theres no hurry since its not a point based system. all the time in the world to scout before trying to get that tag. my thing is, i want to hunt moose HERE in my own stomping grounds where i know the lay of the land and where the moose are apt to be. i want to hunt moose right here where i hunt deer and bear and everything else. so im kind of screwed. may never happen.
I drew first year, then applied for Idabooner and he drew first year. If you want to hunt moose, its the state to apply
Post by: Falcon on January 18, 2014, 04:27:23 PM
I've applied for the OIL tags for 30+ years and have drawn goat, but I know odds are that even with max points I will likely never get sheep or moose. I think any system they use to distribute tags it all boils down to there are very few tags and a lot of us who would dearly love to get a tag. I just feel fortunate to have gotten one.
:yeah:
I also drew a goat tag back in the day. With luck and my max points I will draw a sheep or goat before I am in a wheel chair. The old quote lightning got to strike somewhere is always in my mind.
Post by: Bob33 on January 18, 2014, 04:39:05 PM
"Back in the day" there were a few more goat tags.I've applied for the OIL tags for 30+ years and have drawn goat, but I know odds are that even with max points I will likely never get sheep or moose. I think any system they use to distribute tags it all boils down to there are very few tags and a lot of us who would dearly love to get a tag. I just feel fortunate to have gotten one.
:yeah:
I also drew a goat tag back in the day. With luck and my max points I will draw a sheep or goat before I am in a wheel chair. The old quote lightning got to strike somewhere is always in my mind.
[smg id=9377]
Post by: PolarBear on January 18, 2014, 04:41:52 PM
Post by: Bob33 on January 18, 2014, 04:53:14 PM
I wish that I could transfer my points over to my daughter. She might be able to draw by the time she is my age.That would be nice but it won't happen.
You can certainly be buying points for her, however.
Post by: jason stevens on January 18, 2014, 04:54:03 PM
Post by: fair-chase on January 18, 2014, 05:04:08 PM
Post by: Bob33 on January 18, 2014, 05:04:21 PM
Just a thought. Would it be cheaper to go to canada or alaska for moose then give money every year to are state .No, but at least you will get a to hunt moose. The vast majority of applicants in Washington will spend $15/year to apply for 20 to 30 years and not draw.
Post by: jason stevens on January 18, 2014, 05:25:20 PM
don't worry I won't put in for tags that's the last animal on my bucket listJust a thought. Would it be cheaper to go to canada or alaska for moose then give money every year to are state .No, but at least you will get a to hunt moose. The vast majority of applicants in Washington will spend $15/year to apply for 20 to 30 years and not draw.
Post by: BOWHUNTER45 on January 18, 2014, 05:26:55 PM
Post by: JPhelps on January 18, 2014, 05:30:36 PM
Post by: huntnnw on January 21, 2014, 10:30:37 PM
Post by: Whitpirate on January 21, 2014, 10:41:52 PM
Post by: JPhelps on January 22, 2014, 05:23:04 AM
Post by: huntnnw on January 22, 2014, 05:44:53 AM
Post by: PA BEN on January 22, 2014, 10:44:41 AM
The link to story didnt work. Im wonderin their names? Or where they are from? Think i may know them hahahttp://www.goskagit.com/all_access/sedro-woolley-family-bonds-over-moose-hunting/article_ab06c882-2cc6-5242-a4ad-f49e06ff327e.html (http://www.goskagit.com/all_access/sedro-woolley-family-bonds-over-moose-hunting/article_ab06c882-2cc6-5242-a4ad-f49e06ff327e.html)
:tup:
Post by: bear hunter on January 22, 2014, 10:51:04 AM
Post by: Maverick on January 22, 2014, 11:05:46 AM
Post by: boneaddict on January 22, 2014, 11:24:45 AM
Post by: HUNTINCOUPLE on January 22, 2014, 07:51:14 PM
A wolf just ate your moose. Now its just a steaming pile of hair
That's funny!
:chuckle:
Post by: Slow-1 on January 23, 2014, 09:39:41 AM
Post by: boneaddict on January 23, 2014, 09:55:47 AM
Post by: Maverick on January 23, 2014, 10:49:47 AM
One of the states I put in for if you draw a tag, whether it be deer or whatever, you cannot draw anything else. Might make you consider what deer permit you put in for if your name is in the OIL buckets. Might be Utah. I cant remember at this second. I still contend Idaho has the best system.
One and done huh? Wyoming doesnt seem to have too bad of a system. I don't think you should only be able to fill one of the oil tags. The goal is to be the lucky sob that gets drawn and fills them all. I only have one main goal this year. And that is to fill a bear tag. I've had no luck with those dang things. I'll deer hunt hard and look for a trophy but if I don't get my buck and get a bear id be thrilled.
I personally have no urge to get a goat. Id like to get a big horn but the main oil tag i really want to get is a bull moose.
Post by: GurrCentral on January 23, 2014, 03:04:12 PM
Here’s a thought if you draw any OIL tag you can’t put in for the other two. Yes I know in the grand scheme of thing it is not going to change the odds any real amount, But it would make me feel better knowing I don’t to listen to another I have drawn all three story. Also it would be a little more fair. While I’m on the subject I think any tag with more the 100:1 odds be it elk, deer or whatever should be OIL also just my :twocents:
Do you put in for other states? That would increase your chances of getting drawn for an OIL tag...
Post by: hardrichard on January 23, 2014, 04:59:23 PM
Post by: Whitpirate on January 23, 2014, 05:04:15 PM
That being said anyone want to PM some ideas for Unit 1 or 2 in Idaho? Been a million years since I did anything over there but huckleberry and fish for pike.
Post by: BOWHUNTER45 on January 26, 2014, 06:54:49 AM
Post by: HUNT on February 07, 2014, 08:10:12 PM
Post by: Falcon on February 09, 2014, 08:59:28 PM
I am feeling lucky!
Post by: GEARHEAD on February 11, 2014, 11:29:37 PM
Post by: GurrCentral on February 12, 2014, 08:12:55 PM
Think of it this way, you will wait, most likely twice as long to draw a moose tag, as the average murderer in this state will serve in actuall time. (thats about seven years for the Bad guy)
Yep, that's why ya'll might as well not even put in...... :chuckle:
Post by: wa.hunter on February 16, 2014, 12:37:41 PM