Hunting Washington Forum

Big Game Hunting => Other Big Game => Topic started by: idahohuntr on February 25, 2014, 08:12:30 AM

Title: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: idahohuntr on February 25, 2014, 08:12:30 AM: 2013 any sheep and moose draw odds by point total...these are really depressing :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: Ridgerunner on February 25, 2014, 12:05:41 PM: Those are depressing, glad I've drawn both, I wonder what the odds will look like in another ten years, scary.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: bradslam on February 25, 2014, 12:12:21 PM: That reaffirms how lucky I feel to have drawn a moose tag last year. Now I just have to pull off what Ridge did and draw a sheep tag in short order.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: Ridgerunner on February 25, 2014, 12:25:08 PM: And them you'll have little excitement in the wa draws the rest of your life, it's a tough place to be I tell you.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: 6x6in6 on February 25, 2014, 12:26:12 PM: Hey, it's cheap entertainment at $13.70 a year each for the hail mary of draws. :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: GurrCentral on February 25, 2014, 12:36:08 PM: Quote from: GurrCentral on February 25, 2014, 12:34:47 PM
Quote from: Ridgerunner on February 25, 2014, 12:25:08 PM
And them you'll have little excitement in the wa draws the rest of your life, it's a tough place to be I tell you.

I hear ya there! But hopefully I can relive my hunts and experiences when/if buddies get drawn for sheep and moose! And I wouldn't change anything about either of my oil hunts!
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: hardrichard on February 25, 2014, 02:00:23 PM: Am told I should buy lotto tickets, because I drew the moose in 2006 (hangman A) and the sheep tag 2013(antonym) and back in 1982 mountain goat back then I know it wasn't a oil tag but just the same I drew and got all 3. moose and sheep both with 9Pt's. am 47 and I still have to work on getting the pictures posted. :chuckle: I love this site just not technology. :bash:
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: hardrichard on February 25, 2014, 02:05:03 PM: sorry folks like I said technology the sheep area was umtanum. spell check right :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: huntindoc on February 25, 2014, 02:56:56 PM: Is that 32% draw odds or 0.32% draw odds with 20 points?
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: idahohuntr on February 25, 2014, 02:58:38 PM: 0.32%...as in 1/3 of 1%.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: shanevg on February 25, 2014, 03:26:24 PM: It's a broken system that needs to be fixed.

Where are the goat odds?
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: idahohuntr on February 25, 2014, 03:44:31 PM: All the goat hunts are pretty similar. With 20 points you might have about a 1/3 of 1% chance or roughly 1 in 312. With 1 point your looking at about 1 in 11,000 :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: GurrCentral on February 25, 2014, 03:49:31 PM: Ya, a guy probly shouldn't even bother with putting in for goat.....
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: Ridgerunner on February 25, 2014, 03:51:14 PM: At least there's some new goat units this year to apply in
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: shanevg on February 25, 2014, 09:19:10 PM: What have I missed? What new goat units are being added?
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: Ridgerunner on February 25, 2014, 09:24:20 PM: Some on the peninsula. You probably missed my baker being added to the high buck hunt to.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: soccerguy on February 25, 2014, 09:43:51 PM: Yikes...drew a Selah Butte ram tag in 2012 with 14 points and guessed my odds were 450/1...looks like I was pretty close. The ridiculous thing that year was that I had better odds of drawing the same tag in Oregon with zero points as a nonresident!!!! I'd love to have someone at WDFW justify that to me!
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: bobcat on February 26, 2014, 12:00:16 AM: How would WDFW "justify" the low odds of drawing a sheep tag? They can't control the number of people that apply for those tags, and they certainly can't increase the number of tags available to be drawn. :dunno:
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: idahohuntr on February 26, 2014, 08:34:50 AM: Quote from: bobcat on February 26, 2014, 12:00:16 AM
How would WDFW "justify" the low odds of drawing a sheep tag? They can't control the number of people that apply for those tags, and they certainly can't increase the number of tags available to be drawn. :dunno:
Yep...there are two ways you change overall draw odds:

1. Increase the number of tags - this is more of a biological issue, so generally in draw odd issues its best to just not discuss this option...assume the population is being managed correctly to acheive desired objectves.

2. Decrease Applicants - This can be done a lot of ways (limit choices, increase application fees, etc.). Almost everybody will agree that we should "increase draw odds"...but when you start talking about the options to get you there the wheels fall off :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: lhrbull on February 26, 2014, 10:59:55 AM: one way to reduse applicants is to charge the tag fee up front or just buy points and not be active in the draw
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: Ridgerunner on February 26, 2014, 04:07:29 PM: Unfortunately this issue will never go away, it's supply and demand. Any changes made will not significantly impact odds, apply and hope to get lucky is the best strategy I know of.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: lhrbull on February 26, 2014, 07:59:22 PM: that would be a combination Wyoming and idaho
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: benhuntin on February 26, 2014, 08:05:33 PM: Only allow one unit on the application. Problem solved

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Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: bobcat on February 26, 2014, 08:10:56 PM: Quote from: benhuntin on February 26, 2014, 08:05:33 PM
Only allow one unit on the application. Problem solved

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That wouldn't make any difference in odds. Odds for a particular unit might change slightly, for better or worse, but overall I think odds would remain exactly the same.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: benhuntin on February 26, 2014, 08:15:15 PM: Quote from: bobcat on February 26, 2014, 08:10:56 PM
Quote from: benhuntin on February 26, 2014, 08:05:33 PM
Only allow one unit on the application. Problem solved

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That wouldn't make any difference in odds. Odds for a particular unit might change slightly, for better or worse, but overall I think odds would remain exactly the same.
i think the same 10000 people put in for several units. How would breaking that up not help?

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Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: bobcat on February 26, 2014, 08:33:46 PM: Quote from: benhuntin on February 26, 2014, 08:15:15 PM

Quote from: bobcat on February 26, 2014, 08:10:56 PM
Quote from: benhuntin on February 26, 2014, 08:05:33 PM
Only allow one unit on the application. Problem solved

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That wouldn't make any difference in odds. Odds for a particular unit might change slightly, for better or worse, but overall I think odds would remain exactly the same.
i think the same 10000 people put in for several units. How would breaking that up not help?

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Because there would still be the same number of people applying for the same number of permits.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: shanevg on February 26, 2014, 10:56:22 PM: Quote from: bobcat on February 26, 2014, 08:33:46 PM
Quote from: benhuntin on February 26, 2014, 08:15:15 PM

Quote from: bobcat on February 26, 2014, 08:10:56 PM
Quote from: benhuntin on February 26, 2014, 08:05:33 PM
Only allow one unit on the application. Problem solved

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That wouldn't make any difference in odds. Odds for a particular unit might change slightly, for better or worse, but overall I think odds would remain exactly the same.
i think the same 10000 people put in for several units. How would breaking that up not help?

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Because there would still be the same number of people applying for the same number of permits.

Unfortunately, bobcat is right. It would increase odds for individual hunts by about 4x but assuming every hunter uses all 4 choices, it would not increase your odds of getting drawn as your name would no longer be in 4 separate pots. I'm still in favor of only one choice though.

The best things to do to increase draw odds is only allow hunters to apply for elk/deer or sheep or goat or moose in a given year. Fronting tag fees wouldn't hurt either.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: huntnnw on February 27, 2014, 12:44:44 AM: Something needs to be done! the odds here are horrendous. There needs to be pick 1 unit only in OIL tags or do like ID and you either apply for bucks and bulls or OIL tags not both. If your drawn for a quality bull or buck tag you have to sit out the following year.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: fair-chase on February 27, 2014, 04:03:01 AM: Pre pay, allowing only a single choice, and not allowing a quality deer or elk in the same year are all good suggestions. They would all work to temporarily increase odds, especially if done simultaneously. But they still fail to address the issue of points creep. I fail to see any way around the issue of points creep without scrapping the bonus point system all together. Go ahead and hate on me as much as you like, I understand that many of you have a vested interest in points. But having a bonus points system does a severe disservice to future generations of hunters. And even though I'm not personally invested in the OIL tags catagories, I would gladly give up my deer and elk preference points in order to go to a true random draw. I just don't see any other way to ensure opportunity for future hunters.

I say rip the bandaid off now. I will only hurt worse the longer you drag it out. Flame away. :chuckle:
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: bobcat on February 27, 2014, 06:09:20 AM: I agree points shouldn't be used in the goat, sheep, and moose draw. But for deer and elk I think it's fine. There are enough permits that are relatively easy to draw, if someone doesn't want to wait 20 years for a special permit, then apply for the easier ones. I've drawn four quality deer permits since the point system started. So the point system does work.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: Slow-1 on February 27, 2014, 10:52:05 AM: I for one like the one special permit choice period whether it be deer elk or OIL. Also you have to front the money. That way you apply for just what you really want, not just well its only $... That would eliminate the “ does any know were XYZ animals are located this is my first year to apply and I’m having a hard time finding the unit on the map.” Sorry I’m just a little bitter I’ve been apply for 31 years for a OIL to draw nothing. I used to mow lawns to mail in the money. Then you have to listen to I’ve only drawn two of the three, but we should make it totally random that way someone can draw them their first try !! Like it will make any difference with this "random" system we use.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: bobcat on February 27, 2014, 10:59:40 AM: I'd be fine with only allowing one choice on ALL special permit applications. However, I don't feel it would increase odds.

Requiring that the tag fee be paid up front WOULD help to increase odds, and I would agree with that change, but most people would not. Therefore it will never happen.

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Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: Slow-1 on February 27, 2014, 11:11:26 AM: I reread my post and maybe I wasn't clear. I think you should get an application form with one blank spot for a single special hunt number period. Deer, Elk, Bear Cougar, Moose, MT. Goat, Sheep, what ever you have to choose. What do I really want to hunt.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: Todd_ID on February 27, 2014, 11:22:28 AM: Quote from: Slow-1 on February 27, 2014, 11:11:26 AM
I reread my post and maybe I wasn't clear. I think you should get an application form with one blank spot for a single special hunt number period. Deer, Elk, Bear Cougar, Moose, MT. Goat, Sheep, what ever you have to choose. What do I really want to hunt.

Unless you and the rest of the state are willing to allow an application fee increase equal to what the average hunter spends on all applications total, then the state would be losing money on the applications; that's simply not going to happen. The fee would likely be about $75 for that one application. Personally, I'd pay that for 2 species choices with 2 area choices each, but not for 1 species and 1 area. :twocents:
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: CAMPMEAT on February 27, 2014, 11:30:05 AM: Where are the disabled draw odds for moose ?
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: idahohuntr on February 27, 2014, 01:08:06 PM: Quote from: CAMPMEAT on February 27, 2014, 11:30:05 AM
Where are the disabled draw odds for moose ?
I didn't calculate those or any of the antlerless categories like youth, senior, etc...I focused on quality and antlered hunts since they garner the most interest.
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: bobcat on February 27, 2014, 01:11:48 PM: Quote from: idahohuntr on February 27, 2014, 01:08:06 PM
Quote from: CAMPMEAT on February 27, 2014, 11:30:05 AM
Where are the disabled draw odds for moose ?
I didn't calculate those or any of the antlerless categories like youth, senior, etc...I focused on quality and antlered hunts since they garner the most interest.

Just at a glance I'd say odds for the disabled hunter permits are just as bad, if not worse, than the bull moose permits.

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Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: RB on February 27, 2014, 01:18:55 PM: Quote from: idahohuntr on February 25, 2014, 08:12:30 AM
2013 any sheep and moose draw odds by point total...these are really depressing :chuckle:

So your saying I got a chance?? :chuckle:
(Jim Carey impression from dumb and dumber)
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: Slow-1 on February 27, 2014, 01:38:13 PM: $75 heck even $150 to go from the odds say not in my life (yes that’s correct the odds are a person will never draw any of the OIL tags in their life time)
To any decent chance I'm in. I do relies this will never happen because of money, but it makes me feel a little better to vent :P
Title: Re: 2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds
Post by: beardown on June 01, 2014, 08:03:53 AM: Our system is fine. If you don't have points built up, sucks to be you. I have drawn tags in this state with less than .05% odds, so it CAN be done and it is done on a regular basis. No offense but the idea of picking 1 species is absolutely retarded! The highlight of the year is going down the list and seeing if you are selected for ANY of the several options we have in this state. If you don't like the odds, don't apply. I apply in several states and at least in Wa you have a chance with 1 point. There are other States that are a waste of time to put in for because you have NO chance of drawing unless you have MAX points.