Post by: jaredwitman on April 28, 2015, 07:47:15 AM
The reason I ask is on this years game laws I see a goat unit that had its average of points at 10 for 2014 yet I know the only two people who drew the tag and one drew with max points, the other one below that. I believe that would have been 19 pts and 18pts which is a much greater average. Basically I am just curious.
Post by: Bob33 on April 28, 2015, 08:39:47 AM
Post by: Dhoey07 on April 28, 2015, 09:12:29 AM
Post by: kentrek on April 28, 2015, 09:47:38 AM
Post by: jaredwitman on April 28, 2015, 04:51:30 PM
Post by: bobcat on April 28, 2015, 05:03:46 PM
Post by: Falcon on April 28, 2015, 05:12:58 PM
It's actually somewhat useful information and certainly it shouldn't be "deceiving." It could only be deceiving if you don't understand how the draw works in this state. Look at the number of applicants for that hunt. If there are 4,000 applicants and 25 permits, that's odds of 1 in 160. Or another way of looking at it- on average you can expect to draw that hunt once every 160 years. It makes no difference if the average points are 11 and you have 11 points. Your odds are still terrible!
Except when you draw a sheep permit :drool:
Post by: KNOPHISH on April 29, 2015, 10:40:41 AM
Post by: trophyhunt on April 29, 2015, 11:08:09 AM
but those 4000 applicants have multiple numbers in the bucket making the odds way worse.exactly, each app is exponential. So add up all those real names in the hat and possibly have 100,000.00 names in the hat.
Post by: trophyhunt on April 29, 2015, 11:08:31 AM
:chuckle:It's actually somewhat useful information and certainly it shouldn't be "deceiving." It could only be deceiving if you don't understand how the draw works in this state. Look at the number of applicants for that hunt. If there are 4,000 applicants and 25 permits, that's odds of 1 in 160. Or another way of looking at it- on average you can expect to draw that hunt once every 160 years. It makes no difference if the average points are 11 and you have 11 points. Your odds are still terrible!
Except when you draw a sheep permit :drool:
Post by: Falcon on April 29, 2015, 12:27:44 PM
It just comes down to too many hunters for a small population of oil tags
I along with over 400 people have max points which is 20 for sheep and 18 for moose.I drew goat in 99 and for that I am thankful. I hope to draw sheep or moose but realize it's a stretch especially for sheep. I'm 52 so I don't have time on my side. The next best thing to drawing a tag is going along with a friend who has the golden key. I know from having gone on a couple sheep hunts how rewarding that can be. At the end of day
I am happy to just be in the mtns in the state I love.
Best of luck to all this year in the almighty OIL draws👍
Post by: GurrCentral on April 29, 2015, 12:48:19 PM
The next best thing to drawing a tag is going along with a friend who has the golden key. I know from having gone on a couple sheep hunts how rewarding that can be. At the end of day
I am happy to just be in the mtns in the state I love.
Best of luck to all this year in the almighty OIL draws👍
I like your outlook on this.. many people become jaded on the system when they don't draw. I think karma goes along ways with these situations...atleast it has helped with my oil draws. Good luck!
Post by: fishngamereaper on April 29, 2015, 01:11:39 PM
What's interesting is that very rarely do max points guys draw. Seems the happy place is 15-18 points..
Post by: trophyhunt on April 29, 2015, 08:14:51 PM
If you want a real downer look at each tag and see how many points it was drawn with. Its on the WDFW website. I cry when I see a few guys with 7 and 8 points draw sheep and goat.... :'(:yeah: It's pretty damn depressing if you have between 15 or more points. I just did some calculating on 3 permits I'm considering, it's crazy numbers, all bad. One permit is a rifle rut hunt, I won't be specific just to keep focus off the hunts but here are the numbers. All these hunts have 3 or less tags given out, first the rifle elk rut hunt has a total of 10,664 names in the hat. that's with less than 300 people applying, I have 20 points. So I have 400 names in the hat with 10,664 other names, not good odds. the two other hunts are muzzy elk hunts, one with 12,896 names in the hat, the other with 6,583 names. Again, I have 400 names in those. The bottom line is, I'm not counting on drawing anytime soon, unless I apply for the little natches rifle bull tag. The guys with high points on that tag draw. Go to the wdfw site and look at the points per category drawn with special permits, it will show how bad your odds are. You just have to get damn lucky!
What's interesting is that very rarely do max points guys draw. Seems the happy place is 15-18 points..