Hunting Washington Forum
Big Game Hunting => Deer Hunting => Topic started by: iflyils on March 15, 2016, 05:38:56 PM
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When the drawing for multi season?
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Applications are open through mar 31st, drawing is in april
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Ok thanks
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Not to thread jack but when "applying" you just check the boxes on the purchase selection page for multi season deer and elk than, you put in your wild ID , and than pay correct ? nothing else required ? I have never applied before .
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Not to thread jack but when "applying" you just check the boxes on the purchase selection page for multi season deer and elk than, you put in your wild ID , and than pay correct ? nothing else required ? I have never applied before .
That's correct. It will be submitted automatically.
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Not to thread jack but when "applying" you just check the boxes on the purchase selection page for multi season deer and elk than, you put in your wild ID , and than pay correct ? nothing else required ? I have never applied before .
Since you havent built up points yet id suggest you dont put in for elk.
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Well it says now i can apply online ? Do I want the 1888 multi season deer application or the points selection ? im assuming the deer option ?
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Not to thread jack but when "applying" you just check the boxes on the purchase selection page for multi season deer and elk than, you put in your wild ID , and than pay correct ? nothing else required ? I have never applied before .
Since you havent built up points yet id suggest you dont put in for elk.
Why not? If he wants a permit he should apply.
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Not to thread jack but when "applying" you just check the boxes on the purchase selection page for multi season deer and elk than, you put in your wild ID , and than pay correct ? nothing else required ? I have never applied before .
Since you havent built up points yet id suggest you dont put in for elk.
Why not? If he wants a permit he should apply.
Because i like to discourage people from putting in for things that i put in for
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Not to thread jack but when "applying" you just check the boxes on the purchase selection page for multi season deer and elk than, you put in your wild ID , and than pay correct ? nothing else required ? I have never applied before .
Since you havent built up points yet id suggest you dont put in for elk.
Why not? If he wants a permit he should apply.
Because i like to discourage people from putting in for things that i put in for
;)
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Seriously though, when i finally draw multi elk ill be done applying for either multi tag. I went back to zero quality deer pts last year so im done with that, and im just going to eat all my points in other categories. I used to put in for everything, but the only stuff im putting in for any more is spring bear, multis, and any moose. Once i draw multi elk ill only be applying for spring bear and any moose. Sick of giving this state so much money when all they do is constantly take things away from us and prevent sensible predator management. Id rather take all that money and use it for idaho tags.
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Seriously though, when i finally draw multi elk ill be done applying for either multi tag. I went back to zero quality deer pts last year so im done with that, and im just going to eat all my points in other categories. I used to put in for everything, but the only stuff im putting in for any more is spring bear, multis, and any moose. Once i draw multi elk ill only be applying for spring bear and any moose. Sick of giving this state so much money when all they do is constantly take things away from us and prevent sensible predator management. Id rather take all that money and use it for idaho tags.
Amen to that!!!!!! And by the looks of the survey they just sent to me, they want to jack the prices again!!! I now hunt in Wyoming and Montana. Way better way to spend your money and 10 times the quality!!!!
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Seriously though, when i finally draw multi elk ill be done applying for either multi tag. I went back to zero quality deer pts last year so im done with that, and im just going to eat all my points in other categories. I used to put in for everything, but the only stuff im putting in for any more is spring bear, multis, and any moose. Once i draw multi elk ill only be applying for spring bear and any moose. Sick of giving this state so much money when all they do is constantly take things away from us and prevent sensible predator management. Id rather take all that money and use it for idaho tags.
Amen to that!!!!!! And by the looks of the survey they just sent to me, they want to jack the prices again!!! I now hunt in Wyoming and Montana. Way better way to spend your money and 10 times the quality!!!!
Exactly. I've hunted out of state the last two seasons and have no desire to hunt here. Once I draw a late season permit I will not buy tags in this state.
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Ouch! More unhappy hunters.
One week left to put in applications for the the multi-season tag drawings.
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!!Public Service Announcement - Multi-Season Applications Flooded!!
No need for anyone else to apply for these multi-season tags. Wife and I already stacked the deck with our two apps. You probably won't have a chance to reach 85% or even 60% if you buy in now! So don't even bother.
:chuckle: :chuckle:
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My hunting buddy and me always put in for group. That way I have a packer!
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!!Public Service Announcement - Multi-Season Applications Flooded!!
No need for anyone else to apply for these multi-season tags. Wife and I already stacked the deck with our two apps. You probably won't have a chance to reach 85% or even 60% if you buy in now! So don't even bother.
:chuckle: :chuckle:
Dang, I was feeling good with my one tag. Now you have to go and buy 2, decreased my odds by 60+% :bash:
Guess I will have to get my dog and kids registered so I can overcome this deck stacking :chuckle:
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I really think its a good idea for guys to just go hunt other states , that way I will keep drawing tags here .
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!!Public Service Announcement - Multi-Season Applications Flooded!!
No need for anyone else to apply for these multi-season tags. Wife and I already stacked the deck with our two apps. You probably won't have a chance to reach 85% or even 60% if you buy in now! So don't even bother.
:chuckle: :chuckle:
you really expect to draw multi season deer two years in a row? Last I checked wdfw still hated you.
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Missed the deadline.
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How can someone miss the deadline, they have been for sale since I think January 1st. Thats 3 months.
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I've only just started hunting in WA (I hunt MT mostly). I understand that the multi season tag will allow a hunter to hunt any season (archery, muzzle loader, and modern).
Does the multi season tag allow for hunting multiple GENERAL seasons, or just special permit seasons? There are some posts about not applying for the multi season tag unless you draw a special permit. Why not get it for general season?
Perhaps I'm in too deep over my head with this states confusing, convoluted, expensive hunting options.
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I've only just started hunting in WA (I hunt MT mostly). I understand that the multi season tag will allow a hunter to hunt any season (archery, muzzle loader, and modern).
Does the multi season tag allow for hunting multiple GENERAL seasons, or just special permit seasons? There are some posts about not applying for the multi season tag unless you draw a special permit. Why not get it for general season?
Perhaps I'm in too deep over my head with this states confusing, convoluted, expensive hunting options.
The MS tag allows you to hunt all general seasons for each weapon category. If bought prior to the special permit process you can apply for permits in any weapon category but you still get the same amount of choices, 2 for quality, 4 for buck/bull.
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Thanks for the explanation! I'll stick to Montana, I believe. Maybe I can sneak out for a few days for modern blacktails.
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With my luck, I'm pretty much buying the opportunity to stand in line to buy a leftover MS tag
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They gotta be doing the drawing any day now!
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Its hard to pay out that kind of money for the multi season after forking out so much for licences, and applications. Dang, I need more OT.
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Are we there yet?
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....
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Where did you pull that pic from? It looks like there is about 10 pixels in it :yike:
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Where did you pull that pic from? It looks like there is about 10 pixels in it :yike:
from that ABC logo I'm thinkin an old tv......? :chuckle:
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Where did you pull that pic from? It looks like there is about 10 pixels in it :yike:
Lol my friend sent it to me a while ago. I thought it was funny and I'm in a meme mood
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They gotta be doing the drawing any day now!
Not necessarily.... They screwed up with the applications... I called them about my applications not showing up and also incorrect. They have"several people working on it" is what I was told. Mine shows points only for deer and doesn't show anything for elk. And yes, I've checked daily since about 1am on the1st.... :chuckle: :dunno:
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They gotta be doing the drawing any day now!
Not necessarily.... They screwed up with the applications... I called them about my applications not showing up and also incorrect. They have"several people working on it" is what I was told. Mine shows points only for deer and doesn't show anything for elk. And yes, I've checked daily since about 1am on the1st.... :chuckle: :dunno:
My applications say the same as yours. My elk isn't listed and deer says points option.
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DNRY
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Redraw
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They gotta be doing the drawing any day now!
Not necessarily.... They screwed up with the applications... I called them about my applications not showing up and also incorrect. They have"several people working on it" is what I was told. Mine shows points only for deer and doesn't show anything for elk. And yes, I've checked daily since about 1am on the1st.... :chuckle: :dunno:
My applications say the same as yours. My elk isn't listed and deer says points option.
Yeah, mine doesn't show the elk permit app, and it shows my deer permit being not run yet.
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Results up. Not selected x2 :bash:
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DNRY
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Results up. Not selected x2 :bash:
Mine says draw not run yet
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Results up. Not selected x2 :bash:
you suck
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DNRY
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Just talked to fish and game. They said 2 more weeks before drawings will take place.
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Just talked to fish and game. They said 2 more weeks before drawings will take place.
I called someone and they said deer is run results up Monday. Elk running today and verified Monday with results Wednesday :tup:
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Just talked to fish and game. They said 2 more weeks before drawings will take place.
Lmao
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Just talked to fish and game. They said 2 more weeks before drawings will take place.
I talked to them to and they said for every person that calls they are going to postpone it another day. So might be done by the time hunting seasons roll around :chuckle:
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Results are in. Drew deer!
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Got drawn for deer... Now have 4 points in the multi-season elk
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Did WDFW reduce the M.S. Deer? I didn't get selected for the 1st time ever... either that or 8501 people bought tickets and I'm 8501...
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No go for me either.
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Wife and daughter's drew MS deer, nothing for me. I guess that means that 8503 put in for the MS deer.
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Where do we find the information that shows how many people applied for both deer and elk this year?
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Where do we find the information that shows how many people applied for both deer and elk this year?
It's nowhere to be found, that I know of. They haven't even put up the numbers for the 2015 special permit drawings yet.
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Sadly no multi deer for me....feel like crying lol
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I got multi deer again!!! Not selected for elk though :(
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Not drawn on both... 8 points for MS elk
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Drawn for deer, no points. Same situation as last year. Remember for deer, if you don't get drawn, chances are you'll be able to buy a multi-season tag after many of the draw winners decide not to purchase.
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How did I not draw multi season deer? Is my luck really that bad?
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Did not draw x2, but it only takes 1 day if your lucky!
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I drew deer and finally elk with 8pts
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How did it work to buy the surplus tags? Could you do it online after the purchase deadline or did you have to go to a dealer?
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How did it work to buy the surplus tags? Could you do it online after the purchase deadline or did you have to go to a dealer?
Last year I believe it was about the second week of August you could buy the surplus tags as long as you put in for a multi season permit. If you didn't put in for the permit and weren't selected, then you couldn't buy one.
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How did it work to buy the surplus tags? Could you do it online after the purchase deadline or did you have to go to a dealer?
Last year I believe it was about the second week of August you could buy the surplus tags as long as you put in for a multi season permit. If you didn't put in for the permit and weren't selected, then you couldn't buy one.
:yeah:
If you are just trying to get a deer MS let one of the guys behind you in line try to get the elk MS and then get your deer MS.
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My buddy wasn't drawn for either so the guy behind will just have to wait his turn.
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How did it work to buy the surplus tags? Could you do it online after the purchase deadline or did you have to go to a dealer?
Last year I believe it was about the second week of August you could buy the surplus tags as long as you put in for a multi season permit. If you didn't put in for the permit and weren't selected, then you couldn't buy one.
:yeah:
If you are just trying to get a deer MS let one of the guys behind you in line try to get the elk MS and then get your deer MS.
If they want it they should be there first!
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Another one of my buddies didn't get drawn for the multi season deer... Sure are a lot of people not getting drawn for deer.
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I was drawn for Elk and not Deer. First time ever not drawn for Deer
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I wasnt drawn for deer or elk, first time also not for deer. Figures since this year I actually wanted it. Guess I will have to wait till later and buy a left over.
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I hope they put the leftover multi season elk tags up for sale before the deadline to apply for special permits. That way you could actually apply for quality elk and bull permits on the East Side instead of having to hunt spike only at a cost of $140 for the multi season permit. At least that's the case for me being a West Side hunter.
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Did not draw MS Elk with 3 points. Last time I drew it I had 4 points so hopefully next year. Although, I am amazed to see some guys had a crazy number of points and still didn't draw. I seem to remember the average being around 4 points to draw MS Elk when I looked it up last which was a couple of years ago. Tags just get harder and harder to draw every year.
Drew MS Deer with 2 points after not drawing it last year.
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If you look at the data, it's obvious how difficult it is to draw a multi-season elk permit.
The most current year for which data is available is 2014. There were 9,707 applications for 1,000 permits. The average application had 2.9 points. Add maybe 1.5 more for the two years since, and this year's application average was probably close to 4.5 points. In 2014 the odds of drawing a permit with the maximum 9 points was 57%. With 7 points odds were 50/50; this year it would probably take 9 points to get to 50/50.
There were approximately 80,000 "names in the hat": points squared times then number of applications for each level.
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2014.php
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Multi-season deer for me.
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I hope they put the leftover multi season elk tags up for sale before the deadline to apply for special permits. That way you could actually apply for quality elk and bull permits on the East Side instead of having to hunt spike only at a cost of $140 for the multi season permit. At least that's the case for me being a West Side hunter.
Left over won't be on sale until August , and all said and done elk is closer to $220.
Deer is the $140
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I got drawn for deer, not elk. Hubby didn't get drawn for either
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Elk is $182, deer is $139.
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Elk is $182, deer is $139.
True, I'm just adding on that you also have to buy the 40 some odd dollar elk license as well.
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10 pts. next year for multi elk and I'm still not ready to apply. :chuckle: From the 30 guys I've talked to, it seems like about 1/3 weren't drawn for deer.
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10 pts. next year for multi elk and I'm still not ready to apply. :chuckle: From the 30 guys I've talked to, it seems like about 1/3 weren't drawn for deer.
Wow that's a big change. A couple years back the deer draw was 100%. The elk permit has always been tough to draw.
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I believe the multiseason deer permit quota is 7500. I am not aware of any year they ever sold all 7500 permits. A couple years back they hit a record of around 6900 applicants. I hopped on hear for the reason being I know of 2 people out of 19 that got drawn this year and wanted to see what others were saying about their success. 2016 is the first year I have never been drawn simply because they had more permits than applications. To read MtMuleys post that 10 out of 30 people he knows drew the tag (at the end of a thread where most are posting they did not get drawn) is confirmation that something changed and needs to be addressed, OR, they sold 25000+ applications. Will be on the phone with wdfw tomorrow and post what they had to say.
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I believe the multiseason deer permit quota is 7500. I am not aware of any year they ever sold all 7500 permits. A couple years back they hit a record of around 6900 applicants. I hopped on hear for the reason being I know of 2 people out of 19 that got drawn this year and wanted to see what others were saying about their success. 2016 is the first year I have never been drawn simply because they had more permits than applications. To read MtMuleys post that 10 out of 30 people he knows drew the tag (at the end of a thread where most are posting they did not get drawn) is confirmation that something changed and needs to be addressed, OR, they sold 25000+ applications. Will be on the phone with wdfw tomorrow and post what they had to say.
Actually I believe its 8500 deer multi-season. And if I remember correctly this will be the third year in a row more people apply than total number of permits
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I believe you are correct. A couple years ago when they first had more applicants I think they had 8500 permits and there was 8501 applicants.............at least he was the only guy claiming to not be drawn. We all remember who that one unlucky guy was. :chuckle:
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I believe you are correct. A couple years ago when they first had more applicants I think they had 8500 permits and there was 8501 applicants.............at least he was the only guy claiming to not be drawn. We all remember who that one unlucky guy was. :chuckle:
I do think that one unlucky guy has drawn the last two years... "so, he has that going for him". (Bill Murray voice)
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Hey, I wasn't the only one! I know two others who were not drawn that same year. I could not find out how many applicants there were that year. But apparently there were more than 8501. My luck is bad, but sounds like there are a few with luck just as bad. Always comforting to know others share your grief! :rolleyes:
Being drawn two years in a row does make it better. If you live long enough good is bound to happen at some point. Now if I could just get that goat tag before I'm dead! When I started in '86 or '87 I didn't know any archer that applied for more than three years without getting drawn. I applied ten years before the point system and never got drawn. After the point system I missed a few years while living in Oregon, but I've been in most of them. Was runner up on the raffle twice! If I were playing horse shoes or hand grenades I'd be a winner! :chuckle:
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In 2014, 8,593 applicants for 8,500 permits.
(https://hunting-washington.com/smf/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fuploads.tapatalk-cdn.com%2F20160413%2Fdcd743021816f77bc6892ec7550b92b6.jpg&hash=be9e3481307faf9abae4b845d72a35eb1d65afac)
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I got drawn for deer
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You are correct emac. 8500 permits it is. Talked to wdfw today and they acknowledged there was a problem with the deer draw. Everyone that purchased their multi season deer that did not get drawn is automatically receiving an extra bonus point for the year to compensate for the problem. Total applications this year exceeded 8700, so, there should only be 2.29 % that did not get drawn, not 2.29 that did.
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I know this might not be the right place to ask, but how does the multi-season deer tag work? What steps are there between applying and actually getting out into the woods during multiple seasons?
I understand that there is a drawing, but what does this mean: "purchase a multi season deer that did not get drawn"? I though one had to get drawn and when they did, they ave the multi season tag. And in getting drawn, it only gives you the right to purchase the license, but you don't have to? And the "bonus points", are they specific to multi season tags, or are they the same "points" for the other drawings??? Do these points help your chances of getting drawn? If you do get drawn and don't buy the license, do you lose your points?
This state is just impossible.
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If you are drawn, you then have the option of purchasing the multi-season tag, which is $139, in addition to the cost of your regular deer license.
And yes, if you are drawn you lose your points.
(https://hunting-washington.com/smf/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fuploads.tapatalk-cdn.com%2F20160413%2F72d67d324619a10d46a4cc0aaf1aad9d.jpg&hash=89ec210e7a2a6762142941f7e628680c80ef9da3)
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I know this might not be the right place to ask, but how does the multi-season deer tag work? What steps are there between applying and actually getting out into the woods during multiple seasons?
I understand that there is a drawing, but what does this mean: "purchase a multi season deer that did not get drawn"? I though one had to get drawn and when they did, they ave the multi season tag. And in getting drawn, it only gives you the right to purchase the license, but you don't have to? And the "bonus points", are they specific to multi season tags, or are they the same "points" for the other drawings??? Do these points help your chances of getting drawn? If you do get drawn and don't buy the license, do you lose your points?
This state is just impossible.
if you get drawn, you have the option of buying before they go on sale to the people that applied but didn't get drawn. Even if you don't buy, once drawn you lose your points.
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You are correct emac. 8500 permits it is. Talked to wdfw today and they acknowledged there was a problem with the deer draw. Everyone that purchased their multi season deer that did not get drawn is automatically receiving an extra bonus point for the year to compensate for the problem. Total applications this year exceeded 8700, so, there should only be 2.29 % that did not get drawn, not 2.29 that did.
If this is true then I'm going to be really mad. What complete BS. If there was a problem they should have squared it away before posting results. What good is an extra point in a draw that should almost be a 100% draw?
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I DEMAND A REDRAW (just for elk though)
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You are correct emac. 8500 permits it is. Talked to wdfw today and they acknowledged there was a problem with the deer draw. Everyone that purchased their multi season deer that did not get drawn is automatically receiving an extra bonus point for the year to compensate for the problem. Total applications this year exceeded 8700, so, there should only be 2.29 % that did not get drawn, not 2.29 that did.
If this is true then I'm going to be really mad. What complete BS. If there was a problem they should have squared it away before posting results. What good is an extra point in a draw that should almost be a 100% draw?
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An extra point for next year? Instead of selling a $139 permit this year? That's not the WDFW I know.
I don't know where you got your "2.29% that did" draw numbers whilstlers, maybe just an exaggeration. :dunno: But I find it very hard to believe they're going to send roughly 95% of the applicants packing without lightening their wallets by $139, one way or another.
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If you are drawn, you then have the option of purchasing the multi-season tag, which is $139, in addition to the cost of your regular deer license.
And yes, if you are drawn you lose your points.
(https://hunting-washington.com/smf/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fuploads.tapatalk-cdn.com%2F20160413%2F72d67d324619a10d46a4cc0aaf1aad9d.jpg&hash=89ec210e7a2a6762142941f7e628680c80ef9da3)
I've hunted my whole life, but have just started hunting in WA a few years ago after being in WA for a few years. I didn't start hunting in WA immediate because this state is so screwed up with all the regulations, drawings, points, multiple seasons, rules for each individual game unit, and a myriad of ways the state extracts money from you.
From what I now understand, based on Jimmy Hoffa says below, people get drawn (I'm assuming they pay to be in the drawing) and can choose to spend $139 for the right to hunt the General Season. If they decide NOT to purchase the license, others who applied for the license but did NOT get drawn can buy the license (what about people that did not enter the drawing in the first place?). Not only that, but if you are drawn, you lose your points even if you decide not to buy the multi season permit.
Why do people NOT buy when they get drawn?
I'll stick to hunting in Montana.
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Why do people NOT buy when they get drawn?
I'll stick to hunting in Montana.
They like to wait until after the big draw. They might draw a quality bull/buck permit and just decide to put all the effort to that. But if they don't get the other permits, have the multi tag to boost their odds.
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I thought that if they drew the multi season tag, they had no points left over for the quality hunt permits.
I need to hire a consultant to figure this out.
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You just burn the multi points. You get points in each category--quality/bull/antlerless/buck/65+/moose/goat/spring bear/etc. You can buy applications for lots of categories.
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Feeling lucky. Drew spring bear now both deer and elk multi season 3 for 3. Batting better than the Ms!
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Thanks for your patience and explanations JimmyHoffa!
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I drew for deer, my first time applying for this permit only hunted Washington for one year last year. Excited to have more hunting time this year with a muzzle loader and try something different.
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I thought that if they drew the multi season tag, they had no points left over for the quality hunt permits.
I need to hire a consultant to figure this out.
Points for multi-season permits (not tags) are a separate point category. There are an additional eight deer permit categories: Quality, Buck, Antlerless, Second Deer, Youth, Deer Hunter 65 and Over, Deer Hunter with Disabilities, and Master Hunter. Each of the eight categories is a separate pool of points. You may apply in all of them in which you are eligible. If you are drawn, your points in that category reset to zero but have no effect on other point categories.
You do not need to have a special permit to hunt. You can hunt general seasons with an over-the-counter license and tag. If you do not have a multi-season PERMIT you must specify your choice of weapon: Archery, Modern, and Muzzleloader. You may only hunt the seasons that match the weapon choice of your tag, unless you have a multi-season permit.
The drawing for the eight categories of special permits occurs in the April-May timeframe each year. The application deadline this year is May 18. In order to apply, you must purchase a hunting license and specify a weapon choice for your tag.
If you were drawn for a multi-season permit, you have until August 1 to purchase it. If you purchase it prior to May 18 you may apply for special permits applicable to all three weapon choices: archery, modern, and muzzleloader.
If you were drawn for the multi-season permit, you do not need to purchase it. If you purchase it prior to August 1 you can hunt the general seasons for all three weapon choices. If you do not purchase it, you may only hunt the general seasons that match your tag's weapon designation and any season(s) associated with a special permit(s) from the eight categories that you may have drawn.
Since there have recently been more applications for multi-season permits than permits available, and some who draw do not purchase them, the unpurchased permits go on sale on a first-come, first-serve basis later in the summer.
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Thank you Bob33! That makes it a bit clearer in my mind.
I do understand the "permit vs. tag" issue, I tend to mix the two words up.
I am amazed at how specific the point system is for the special permits. Just crazy. When all is said and done, I expect that the price to hunt here in WA with a special permit or a multi season (or both) is approaching that of the non-resident deer tag in many other states.
Best of luck to everyone in their respective drawings!
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You are correct emac. 8500 permits it is. Talked to wdfw today and they acknowledged there was a problem with the deer draw. Everyone that purchased their multi season deer that did not get drawn is automatically receiving an extra bonus point for the year to compensate for the problem. Total applications this year exceeded 8700, so, there should only be 2.29 % that did not get drawn, not 2.29 that did.
If this is true then I'm going to be really mad. What complete BS. If there was a problem they should have squared it away before posting results. What good is an extra point in a draw that should almost be a 100% draw?
An extra point for next year? Instead of selling a $139 permit this year? That's not the WDFW I know.
I don't know where you got your "2.29% that did" draw numbers whilstlers, maybe just an exaggeration. :dunno: But I find it very hard to believe they're going to send roughly 95% of the applicants packing without lightening their wallets by $139, one way or another.
This conversation torqued me off when I first read it. I don't want the second point, I just want the MS tag. Once it settled into my squash a bit, me thinks that WDFW might have considered this better than I gave them credit for:
- If the number of applicants was close to or just above that of the number of tags available, then those who really want them will still buy them when they become available later in the summer and WDFW doesn't loose any more money than usual to unsold tags. Those who apply for MS just as a backup plan for not drawing in other special hunts will proceed as they would normally do anyway, and will have no effect on sales proceeds of hunters who just want the MS tag.
- granting a second point for "inconvenience" due to the bad draw for the MS tag does absolutely nothing for hunters in next year's drawing, as the success rate for the MS tag is almost 100% anyways, and (as demonstrated in this thread earlier) a second point has almost no effect in increasing the chances of drawing.