Post by: Mr Mykiss on April 30, 2018, 10:29:13 AM
For those of you curious...
-The regs state that the "average" points for someone who draw was 10 for 2017
-Some people say "I have 12 points, it only takes 10 to draw, I'm gonna draw"
-Nope
-The average points of the people who drew last year was 10
-That's because the VAST MAJORITY of the names in the hat come from people who have 10 or fewer names in the hat, therefore...
-It's six times more likely that someone from the 8 point pool (289 people, 18496 names in the hat) will draw than the 18 point pool (9 people, 2916 names in the hat)
-Bueno?
-Since there used to be 110 tags and now there's 61 you could basically assume these states used to be doubled
Here's draw odds for individuals with certain point totals...you get the idea.
Have a nice day :hello: :hello:
Points Odds
20 12.1%
15 7.0%
10 3.2%
5 0.8%
PS: If you do the math and extrapolate (not recommended) you will find that if the number of hunts/hunters/tags stay relatively the same that a 20 year old who starts "building points" in the famous Washington BULL ELK category this year would have odds of drawing progressively get better going from 0.03% to probably around 8-10% (if that>>>point creep) in 40 years...giving you...wait for it...about a 50/50 chance of drawing a Peaches tag in your next 40 years of hunting. Just sayin.
Post by: X-Force on April 30, 2018, 10:39:49 AM
Im glad i have all these points it really improves my odds. :chuckle:
Post by: Karl Blanchard on April 30, 2018, 10:49:29 AM
Post by: Duckhunter14 on April 30, 2018, 10:53:52 AM
Post by: Bob33 on April 30, 2018, 10:54:28 AM
If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.
Post by: vandeman17 on April 30, 2018, 11:08:39 AM
“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.
If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.
:yeah: That whole "average points" is very misleading. The way I look at the whole draw/point system is to apply for the hunt you WANT and forget about the one you think you SHOULD BE ABLE to draw. Majority have such low odds that the difference is minuscule :twocents:
Post by: Mr Mykiss on April 30, 2018, 11:39:11 AM
Copy that. To do a totally precise estimation you’d have to add one, estimate the number of people jumping in with zero (aka one) point, account for those that did draw and take them out and I guess I coulda given the percentage down to the thousandth but when we get into all that stuff it’s really splitting hairs and would likely only move numbers a tenth of a percent or thereabouts.
PS: Yeah happy Monday...but it’s da truth :/
Post by: trophyhunt on April 30, 2018, 11:48:10 AM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on April 30, 2018, 12:00:18 PM
“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.I believe odds are even less - run the names in hat with two applicants with 2 pts ea and two with 20 points ea and you see its more names then the average squared time # of applicants. Like you say - Not that it matters ! :tup:
If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.
Post by: coachcw on April 30, 2018, 12:04:15 PM
Post by: Bob33 on April 30, 2018, 12:08:31 PM
If there are two applications with two points each, and two with 20 points each I would compute there are 808 names in the hat and average points per application would be 14.2. 14.2 squared times 4 is 808.“Average points” of successful applications is indeed meaningless, other than being used to mislead hunters about actual odds of being drawn.I believe odds are even less - run the names in hat with two applicants with 2 pts ea and two with 20 points ea and you see its more names then the average squared time # of applicants. Like you say - Not that it matters ! :tup:
If you’re referring to this year’s hunt 2094 (2017 hunt # 2090): Peaches Ridge Muzzleloader, the average points for all applicants is what is needed to do a correct estimation of odds. In 2017 the average applicant had 7.36 points. There were 669 applications, and thus the total number of “names in the hat” was 36,229 (7.36 squared times 669). You can assume that this year’s average point total will be slightly higher – perhaps around 8 points. With the same number of applicants there would be 669 x 8 x 8 = 42,800 “names in the hat” this year.
Post by: knighttime25 on April 30, 2018, 12:08:55 PM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on April 30, 2018, 12:47:16 PM
Post by: LongBomb on April 30, 2018, 02:30:09 PM
My advice to young hunters, don’t live by the draw/points system! Buy the tag you want and go hunt, buy your points if you want, ghost point until you draw the multi season elk tag. Then put in for the special hunt you want, I’m talking about elk hunting here. Don’t wait year after year for that one special permit, you’ll just get old!! Go hunt!!:yeah:
Post by: vandeman17 on April 30, 2018, 02:34:12 PM
My advice to young hunters, don’t live by the draw/points system! Buy the tag you want and go hunt, buy your points if you want, ghost point until you draw the multi season elk tag. Then put in for the special hunt you want, I’m talking about elk hunting here. Don’t wait year after year for that one special permit, you’ll just get old!! Go hunt!!
Spot on. This is why I pinch pennies during the year and travel out of state to hunt. Never know when we are off to meet our maker and I want to make the most of the time we have.
Post by: BULLBLASTER on April 30, 2018, 02:55:12 PM
Always put your name in for an actual permit. :twocents:
Post by: Bob33 on April 30, 2018, 02:59:59 PM
Here’s some data. This chart shows the odds of drawing a permit with three different odds over four different time periods. For example, if you apply for a permit with 1 in 10 odds for ten straight years, you still only have a 65% chance of drawing sometime during that ten year period. Even after 20 years you have an 88% chance of drawing in that time period. Apply for a permit with 1 in 50 odds for 50 years, and you only have a 64% chance of drawing.
Post by: trophyhunt on April 30, 2018, 03:31:23 PM
Why would you ghost point until drawing multiseason?my example of why to only apply when you draw multi is this. Let’s say your mostly interested in killing bulls, mostly 3 point or better. If you apply for the eastside and don’t draw, your stuck hunting spikes or w archery, spikes and cows. So, I have 23 points, 23 years waiting for an any bull tag. If I only applied for special permits when I drew a multi season elk, I’d have been hunting 3 point or better all these years on the west side. Keeping my hunting camp tradition alive, instead of just getting old waiting. Now, I do go to Idaho to get my fix for any bull hunts, thank God for Idaho! I completely understand your thoughts, if your not in the draw, you’ll never draw. But I think you understand where I’m coming from as well? I’ll be done w the points game when I finally draw out, it’s just not worth your youth passing you by, and now that I’ve waited all these years, the elk population in the blues is tanking! Sweet!
Always put your name in for an actual permit. :twocents:
Post by: Mr Mykiss on April 30, 2018, 03:57:36 PM
the elk population in the blues is tanking!The elk population in the blues is tanking and they cut the peaches tags in half but it's still all good right?
Post by: Duckhunter14 on April 30, 2018, 04:08:32 PM
the elk population in the blues is tanking!The elk population in the blues is tanking and they cut the peaches tags in half but it's still all good right?
Are you going to stop applying? Yeah me neither....
Post by: TikkaT3-270Shortmag on April 30, 2018, 04:41:33 PM
Post by: hunt4life on April 30, 2018, 04:46:45 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on April 30, 2018, 05:18:28 PM
Wait until I bust out the draw odds on the quality hunts!!!
Post by: trophyhunt on April 30, 2018, 05:27:51 PM
You guys have got it all wrong. I’m not gonna stop applying...I just want you all to stop applying!!!:yeah: :chuckle:
Wait until I bust out the draw odds on the quality hunts!!!
Post by: kevinlisa06 on April 30, 2018, 07:08:24 PM
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Post by: Magnum_Willys on April 30, 2018, 07:10:47 PM
I’m putting in for an Any Bull tag finally again. I drew an any bull tag back in 2000 and my dad has yet to draw. The only reason I’m putting in again is to hopefully better his odds. With my 8 points I’m hoping to help him draw the tag finally. Can’t remember the year this stupid draw started but he has that many points.
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Uh.... they average your points so you will drop his chances if you go in as a group ????? or does he only have less than 8 points ?
Post by: Bob33 on April 30, 2018, 07:19:12 PM
I’m putting in for an Any Bull tag finally again. I drew an any bull tag back in 2000 and my dad has yet to draw. The only reason I’m putting in again is to hopefully better his odds. With my 8 points I’m hoping to help him draw the tag finally. Can’t remember the year this stupid draw started but he has that many points.The draw system started in 1996. If he has acquired a point every year since 1996, he has more than 8 points and should have around 23.. Putting in as a group with you hurts his chances because a group with members that have 23 and 8 points would go into the draw with 16 points.
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Post by: Dan-o on April 30, 2018, 07:35:29 PM
He's better off putting in by himself.
You can always help if he draws..... But you hurt his chances.
Post by: Karl Blanchard on April 30, 2018, 08:43:34 PM
Post by: vandeman17 on May 01, 2018, 08:12:29 AM
Regardless of points, most of the time, applying as a group does not help odds. Especially if there are a low number of permits for that particular hunt
:yeah: Even if the applicants both have same amount of points, by applying as a pair you are basically taking away one possible tag, as a trio you take away two etc.
Post by: ctwiggs1 on May 01, 2018, 08:14:35 AM
Regardless of points, most of the time, applying as a group does not help odds. Especially if there are a low number of permits for that particular hunt
:yeah:
My hunting partner and I just decided that if one of us gets drawn, we'll both go and split the meat. It's a win-win. One guy gets some antlers and the other guy doesn't have to haul as much gear :chuckle:
Post by: Magnum_Willys on May 01, 2018, 09:42:25 AM
Post by: kevinlisa06 on May 02, 2018, 06:37:12 PM
I’m putting in for an Any Bull tag finally again. I drew an any bull tag back in 2000 and my dad has yet to draw. The only reason I’m putting in again is to hopefully better his odds. With my 8 points I’m hoping to help him draw the tag finally. Can’t remember the year this stupid draw started but he has that many points.The draw system started in 1996. If he has acquired a point every year since 1996, he has more than 8 points and should have around 23.. Putting in as a group with you hurts his chances because a group with members that have 23 and 8 points would go into the draw with 16 points.
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To be honest with you in my opinion the draw system is broken has been broken and a lot of you agree with that.
Yes I have 8 points, he has been putting in since 1996 and has not drawn. I get the thinking that I will hurt his odds. But everyone says it’s the luck of the draw right. I could give 2 *censored*s if I draw a any bull tag. You have lots of people saying that oh you have to many points you’ll never draw. Then you have people with just a few points that draw the tags, so what gives is it broken?
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Post by: Bob33 on May 02, 2018, 07:01:19 PM
It depends on your definition of "broken". The more points one has, the greater chance he has of drawing.I’m putting in for an Any Bull tag finally again. I drew an any bull tag back in 2000 and my dad has yet to draw. The only reason I’m putting in again is to hopefully better his odds. With my 8 points I’m hoping to help him draw the tag finally. Can’t remember the year this stupid draw started but he has that many points.The draw system started in 1996. If he has acquired a point every year since 1996, he has more than 8 points and should have around 23.. Putting in as a group with you hurts his chances because a group with members that have 23 and 8 points would go into the draw with 16 points.
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To be honest with you in my opinion the draw system is broken has been broken and a lot of you agree with that.
Yes I have 8 points, he has been putting in since 1996 and has not drawn. I get the thinking that I will hurt his odds. But everyone says it’s the luck of the draw right. I could give 2 *censored*s if I draw a any bull tag. You have lots of people saying that oh you have to many points you’ll never draw. Then you have people with just a few points that draw the tags, so what gives is it broken?
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You stated that you hoped to better your father's odds by applying with him; it has been pointed out that it would hurt his odds. How you choose to deal with that is up to you.
Good luck to you and your dad.
Post by: mossback636 on May 02, 2018, 08:26:13 PM
It’s all luck I know a guy who drew teanway bull tag 2 years ago with 2 points!! It’s all luck!!drew the desert tag rifle rut hunt with 6, throw your name in the hat
Post by: Roperfive88 on May 02, 2018, 09:55:32 PM
I’m putting in for an Any Bull tag finally again. I drew an any bull tag back in 2000 and my dad has yet to draw. The only reason I’m putting in again is to hopefully better his odds. With my 8 points I’m hoping to help him draw the tag finally. Can’t remember the year this stupid draw started but he has that many points.The draw system started in 1996. If he has acquired a point every year since 1996, he has more than 8 points and should have around 23.. Putting in as a group with you hurts his chances because a group with members that have 23 and 8 points would go into the draw with 16 points.
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To be honest with you in my opinion the draw system is broken has been broken and a lot of you agree with that.
Yes I have 8 points, he has been putting in since 1996 and has not drawn. I get the thinking that I will hurt his odds. But everyone says it’s the luck of the draw right. I could give 2 *censored*s if I draw a any bull tag. You have lots of people saying that oh you have to many points you’ll never draw. Then you have people with just a few points that draw the tags, so what gives is it broken?
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There are not enough tags for everyone to draw how does that make the system broken. Its a lottery and no one is owed a tag no matter how many points. He may never draw like alot of people :sry:. More people will never draw a quality bull tag then will draw. Life is not fair :twocents:.
Also, its not thinking you will hurt his odds. Its a fact. Putting in as partners you are viewed as one applicant where they average your points. So all you would do is cost him 7pts and would have one less tag he could draw because if your app comes up and only one tag is avalible you dont draw.
Post by: bobcat on May 02, 2018, 11:19:12 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 03, 2018, 05:35:30 AM
Post by: ctwiggs1 on May 03, 2018, 08:08:18 AM
Post by: Bob33 on May 03, 2018, 08:47:49 AM
It seems like your odds should get better and better. Not only do you gain more preference points, but hunter participation is on a decline right now so you should have less competition every year.For the first time since 2010, that occurred last year for some species.
Here's a graph for Quality Elk permits. The graph shows the "number of names in the hat", and also the number of applications for Quality Elk permits. You can see that the number of names in the hat steadily increased from 2010 to 2016, even though the number of applications was relatively flat. That occurred as applicants in the lower point levels moved up: going from one year to two years bumps up then number of names in the hat from one to four.
The drop in applications in 2017 was significant enough to result in a decrease in total names in the hat, so odds did improve overall.
Post by: ctwiggs1 on May 03, 2018, 08:55:09 AM
I guess that's the silver lining.
Post by: coachcw on May 03, 2018, 09:23:42 AM
Post by: jackknife on May 06, 2018, 08:09:23 AM
Post by: Big6bull on May 06, 2018, 10:04:50 AM
Post by: Branden on May 06, 2018, 11:50:41 AM
I like the idea of just have one choice per catigory. It would keep the premium hunts still very difficult to draw ( some even more so) but the hunts that are more in the middle would have less applicants. Still be able to put in for cow bull and quality. Maybe square your points once you have 10 or more?
They square your points already.
Its simply supply and demand. To many hunters not enough tags. Either eliminate general season and go to all draw, or the odds will continue to suck unless hunters keep dropping out. And make sure your name is in the hat. You never know when you will get lucky. I drew when there was 1 tag and 347 applicants. My brother drew one also with the same odds. We also drew as partners with even worse odds. So it can be done.
Good luck in the draws this year.
Post by: Stein on May 06, 2018, 02:09:50 PM
Plug it in, run the draw a couple million times and you approach true odds.
Or, buy the lottery ticket and hop Lady Luck is on your side.
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Post by: Biggerhammer on May 20, 2018, 12:36:55 PM
Point is, you never know. The world record California Sheep out of the Swakane Unit was drawn with 6 points.
Throw the dice!
Post by: wheels on May 20, 2018, 12:58:59 PM
Post by: Duckhunter14 on May 22, 2018, 12:51:40 PM
I drew Observatory Modern Bull with 4 points and Peaches Ridge Modern Bull with 5 Points.
Point is, you never know. The world record California Sheep out of the Swakane Unit was drawn with 6 points.
Throw the dice!
Let's see some pics Bighammer!
Post by: Biggerhammer on May 22, 2018, 08:25:44 PM
I just have this tingling feeling I’m due for a Colockum Quality Bull permit. 😈
Post by: D-Rock425 on May 30, 2018, 08:07:35 AM
The odds are actually a bit worse as you apply for more than one choice. Gohunt is the best but they don’t run WA. For states like ours, you need to run simulations to get the true odds.how are odds worse if you apply for more than one hunt?
Plug it in, run the draw a couple million times and you approach true odds.
Or, buy the lottery ticket and hop Lady Luck is on your side.
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Post by: Stein on May 30, 2018, 10:11:27 AM
The odds are actually a bit worse as you apply for more than one choice. Gohunt is the best but they don’t run WA. For states like ours, you need to run simulations to get the true odds.how are odds worse if you apply for more than one hunt?
Plug it in, run the draw a couple million times and you approach true odds.
Or, buy the lottery ticket and hop Lady Luck is on your side.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The guy that has a number lower than you can have it as his first, second or third choice and pull the tag before they get to your number. Unless I am wrong, in WA, they look at all your choices before going on to the next guy. Some states only look at your first before going on, then all the seconds, then all the thirds.
Post by: NRA4LIFE on May 30, 2018, 11:48:43 AM
Post by: Reidus on May 30, 2018, 12:45:26 PM
That is correct. If you're name comes up, they look at all 4 from your first to last. If there are any tags left for one of your choices, then you get that tag.
That's what they say they do anyway.
Post by: D-Rock425 on May 30, 2018, 01:09:21 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on May 30, 2018, 09:07:41 PM
.
.
.
Dreams shattered!!!!
Post by: Duckhunter14 on May 30, 2018, 09:19:41 PM
I put in for hunts and maintain a negative attitude for as long as possible throughout the draw process...at some point I cave and start daydreaming about drawing hunts, then
.
.
.
Dreams shattered!!!!
You an me both! Im staying strong with the negative attitude this year though. Im convinced Im not drawing anything and I wont let the draws play with my heart again! :bash:
Post by: D-Rock425 on May 31, 2018, 07:19:55 AM
Post by: jagermiester on May 31, 2018, 07:59:49 AM
It's all irrelevant. I drew a quality with 5 pts. Dont care what my odds are it's just *censored* ass luck.
Hilarious I think you censored the wrong word :chuckle:
Cmon fellas some lucky dog has to win it. Someday it may be you!
I think its gonna be me this year though I got like 5 points. Sorry
Post by: notsosneaky on June 02, 2018, 01:29:24 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on June 02, 2018, 08:48:55 PM
Post by: Mallardmasher on June 03, 2018, 07:13:46 AM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on June 03, 2018, 07:32:53 AM
I have 19 quality bull points and finally drew a multi season elk With 9 points, I am hoping. Have max points for sheep, goat and antlered moose. So hoping I don't get them all😎. Might have to retire for the fall. Think positive, only took a goost point for Bull this year. Let's get the draw going.19 pts and multi-season why would you take a ghost point? This was chance to do east and west draws. Your odds of getting multiple tags are less than 1:100 :dunno:
Post by: coachcw on June 03, 2018, 07:49:47 AM
Post by: fishngamereaper on June 03, 2018, 08:05:09 AM
I would never ghost point . shoot for the moon with a rut tag .
:yeah:
Post by: bobcat on June 03, 2018, 08:08:14 AM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on June 03, 2018, 08:29:33 AM
There's not much worth applying for in the bull category. I'd say good decision on only applying for the point, since he has the multi season tag this year.Yep, no animals there. :chuckle:
Post by: coachcw on June 03, 2018, 04:25:32 PM
There's not much worth applying for in the bull category. I'd say good decision on only applying for the point, since he has the multi season tag this year.what with a multiseason tag there are plenty of good bull choices
Yep, no animals there. :chuckle:
Post by: Mallardmasher on June 03, 2018, 05:32:26 PM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on June 03, 2018, 06:23:28 PM
Applied for all user group rut tags for quality bullSorry whats that mean? Always learning. Im guessing a muzzy, bow, and rifle hunt # for certain area?
Post by: Mallardmasher on June 03, 2018, 10:15:59 PM
Post by: X-Force on June 03, 2018, 10:25:31 PM
Yes, muzzy and rifle rut tags in area with no early seasons and archery in same area
Man good luck.
Drawing a MS then getting the dream tag would be sweet.
Post by: LHaub on June 04, 2018, 05:53:10 AM
Post by: TriggerMike on June 04, 2018, 09:22:51 AM
When is wdfw going to get this drawing going its all random on a computer. Choices had to be submitted 2 weeks ago, lets hurry up and get this ball rolling.Probably another 10 days at a minimum.
Post by: Karl Blanchard on June 04, 2018, 09:29:40 AM
Post by: BULLBLASTER on June 04, 2018, 11:32:50 AM
I'll point out once again that WA conducts the fastest draws in the West. There is endless things to rag on WA for but putting out draw results is not one of them :tup:You get outta here with your logic and knowledge of how fast it is.
It still isn’t fast enough!
Post by: Karl Blanchard on June 04, 2018, 11:50:27 AM
oh I agree! I think I should be able to hit the submit application button and then immediately get a draw results email :chuckle:I'll point out once again that WA conducts the fastest draws in the West. There is endless things to rag on WA for but putting out draw results is not one of them :tup:You get outta here with your logic and knowledge of how fast it is.
It still isn’t fast enough!
Post by: Mr Mykiss on June 04, 2018, 12:39:32 PM
I'll point out once again that WA conducts the fastest draws in the West. There is endless things to rag on WA for but putting out draw results is not one of them :tup:Unfriend
Post by: eyesinfront on June 10, 2018, 02:22:37 PM
Post by: Boss .300 winmag on June 10, 2018, 03:45:28 PM
Post by: Jpmiller on June 10, 2018, 05:29:54 PM
Post by: Magnum_Willys on June 10, 2018, 05:45:39 PM
I switched it up this year and decided to stay closer to home and went westside. I won't be in for peaches this year you are all welcome. I'll expect a packet of steaks from whichever one of you draws my tag though :chuckle:Well I would but I went for Goose..... :tung:
Post by: idaho guy on June 21, 2018, 07:19:50 PM
Well this is awkward...
:chuckle: that's funny
Post by: Boss .300 winmag on June 21, 2018, 07:21:06 PM
Well this is awkward...
:chuckle: that's funny
🤔
Post by: Jpmiller on June 21, 2018, 07:45:01 PM