Post by: Johnny Doe on September 28, 2018, 11:42:49 AM
Figured I would get the ball rolling on this one even though the season is far from over!!! I know there are a few other guys on here that enjoy toying with the stats. What say you?
Post by: Mr Mykiss on September 28, 2018, 12:17:01 PM
Post by: X-Force on September 28, 2018, 12:22:48 PM
I think 31,000 is roughly the number of applications that Mountain View will have next year...
I know that’s what I’m applying for... me and my whole family. Coastie caravan!
Post by: bobcat on September 28, 2018, 12:24:22 PM
Post by: bobcat on September 28, 2018, 12:26:43 PM
Post by: BULLBLASTER on September 28, 2018, 12:35:37 PM
I think 31,000 is roughly the number of applications that Mountain View will have next year...That’s a train I won’t be jumping on. :chuckle:
That place chewed me up and spit me out a few years ago and I don’t need a repeat. :tung:
Post by: OltHunter on September 28, 2018, 12:56:22 PM
2018 Point only 6,503. 31,587 - 6,503 = 25,084.
https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2018.php - Quality Elk applicants - 25,084
https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2017.php - Quality Elk applicants - 25,376
https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016.php - Quality Elk applicants - 32,652
So there was actually a drop in overall applicants applying for Quality elk tags and 23% drop overall from 2016.
Consistent with the 2016 winter kill, 50% reduction for Yakima herd, I'm sure more and more are doing points options, while others drop off and head out of state.
I did pull the PDF details into excel and there was still a large increase in the points pool compared to 2017...point creep is a killer! Yakima's were up around 50%. Blues were up around 100%. With the cut in tags, the Blue's probably were more favorable a few percentage points so i'm sure a few Yakima hunters on the edge put their odds with the Blues tags.
Post by: Johnny Doe on September 28, 2018, 01:04:05 PM
So here's the deal - the 2018 31,587 is including points only applications. The 2017 link does not include them.
2018 Point only 6,503. 31,587 - 6,503 = 25,084.
https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2018.php - Quality Elk applicants - 25,084
https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2017.php - Quality Elk applicants - 25,376
https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2016.php - Quality Elk applicants - 32,652
So there was actually a drop in overall applicants applying for Quality elk tags and 23% drop overall from 2016.
Consistent with the 2016 winter kill, 50% reduction for Yakima herd, I'm sure more and more are doing points options, while others drop off and head out of state.
I did pull the PDF details into excel and there was still a large increase in the points pool compared to 2017...point creep is a killer! Yakima's were up around 50%. Blues were up around 100%. With the cut in tags, the Blue's probably were more favorable a few percentage points so i'm sure a few Yakima hunters on the edge put their odds with the Blues tags.
That's what I was looking for! Thank's OltHunter!!
What I still find crazy is the number of applicants on a few choice Blue's hunts went up exponentially!
Example: 2017 Wenaha W. Rifle had 435 Applicants
2018 Wenaha W. Rifle had 1548 Applicants :yike:
This was the same in several other units that I looked at??
Post by: Reidus on September 28, 2018, 01:40:29 PM
Post by: X-Force on September 28, 2018, 02:33:35 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on September 28, 2018, 03:01:19 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on September 28, 2018, 03:02:36 PM
Post by: B4noon on September 28, 2018, 03:15:24 PM
Post by: Shawn Ryan on September 28, 2018, 03:38:22 PM
I think 31,000 is roughly the number of applications that Mountain View will have next year...
Can I claim any part of a kickback from the State for contributing to any increase in app fees? I need to fund my San Carlos Apache Res hunt.
Post by: Reidus on September 28, 2018, 03:55:06 PM
I think 31,000 is roughly the number of applications that Mountain View will have next year...
Can I claim any part of a kickback from the State for contributing to any increase in app fees? I need to fund my San Carlos Apache Res hunt.
Isn't the wait list for that like 1k people long?
Post by: W_Ellison2011 on September 28, 2018, 04:13:16 PM
Post by: BuckSnort18 on September 28, 2018, 08:11:39 PM
Post by: MonstroMuley on September 28, 2018, 11:27:30 PM
Took me 22 years to get my quality elk archery permit this year. Paid off. ... Met two other permit holders. One had 12 points, the other 3. Not right getting quality with 3 points. 7 permits given out.
That's "Randomness" for Ya ... 12 point holders have more tickets in the lottery [higher opportunity for selection] and 3 point holders (obviously) fewer lottery tickets) [lower selection opportunity] ... long shot for the 3 point holders, but occasionally, even long shots win ... they still gotta chance ... random roll of the dice.
How does the special permit drawing work?
https://wdfw.wa.gov/help/questions/214/How+does+the+special+permit+drawing+work%3F+I+heard+you+square+points.+Does+that+improve+my+drawing+odds%3F
Post by: BuckSnort18 on September 29, 2018, 05:34:41 PM
Post by: jstone on September 29, 2018, 05:40:41 PM
Post by: bobcat on September 29, 2018, 05:48:28 PM
I fully understand how the permit point system works. Thankful I was drawn at all. There are a few hunters still out there with 30+ points. Feeling for them when other hunters may be drawn 3 times before they get a chance for the experience, if at all. There could be some changes.
If someone has 30 points it's not because they've been waiting 30 years. It's because they got points for turning in a poacher.
Post by: BuckSnort18 on September 29, 2018, 06:12:00 PM
Post by: kentrek on September 29, 2018, 06:53:33 PM
But seriously :dunno:
Post by: 270Flat on September 29, 2018, 08:15:00 PM
I think 31,000 is roughly the number of applications that Mountain View will have next year...That’s a train I won’t be jumping on. :chuckle:
That place chewed me up and spit me out a few years ago and I don’t need a repeat. :tung:
Post by: OltHunter on October 01, 2018, 07:42:40 AM
That’s the deal...if applications are increasing everywhere, shouldn’t they be decreasing somewhere else?
Yes, but I'm starting to question the data now from WDFW for 2018.
It looks like total applications were 42,459 in 2017 and 84,468 in 2018. Since people can put in for 2 hunts, i would expect to see around 50,000 total applications, with i'm sure people putting in for only 1 unit, would make it seem like 2017 is accurate and 2018 is close to doubled somehow.
I wonder if it will get revised at all.
Here's are some of the biggest jumps I see:
Couse (2063): 1,277 - 35
Teanaway (2020): 3,437 - 618
Ten Ten (2006): 1,388 - 107
Do we really believe Teanaway had the second highest overall applications in Quality Elk in 2018???
https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/results.php?Species=ELK
Post by: Johnny Doe on October 01, 2018, 08:03:59 AM
That’s the deal...if applications are increasing everywhere, shouldn’t they be decreasing somewhere else?
Yes, but I'm starting to question the data now from WDFW for 2018.
It looks like total applications were 42,459 in 2017 and 84,468 in 2018. Since people can put in for 2 hunts, i would expect to see around 50,000 total applications, with i'm sure people putting in for only 1 unit, would make it seem like 2017 is accurate and 2018 is close to doubled somehow.
I wonder if it will get revised at all.
Here's are some of the biggest jumps I see:
Couse (2063): 1,277 - 35
Teanaway (2020): 3,437 - 618
Ten Ten (2006): 1,388 - 107
Do we really believe Teanaway had the second highest overall applications in Quality Elk in 2018???
https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/results.php?Species=ELK
:yeah: :dunno: Whats the deal WDFW?
Post by: Johnny Doe on October 01, 2018, 08:09:16 AM
Interesting thing the top point guy in the Quality Elk category went from 34 to 45pts and I believe is the same guy (he put in for the same hunts both year)...Dude caught another hunter in 2017 to go from 34 to 45pts!!! WTH I want to go poacher hunting with that guy! :IBCOOL:
Post by: Euro mount on October 01, 2018, 02:07:35 PM
Post by: throwingsticks on October 01, 2018, 09:58:57 PM
I think 31,000 is roughly the number of applications that Mountain View will have next year...Because of meat eater?
Post by: Johnny Doe on December 18, 2018, 10:01:54 AM
Hi there,
I have recently been looking at individual hunts on the 2018 Special Permit Drawing Results and in comparison to past years it seems that the number of applications/applicants greatly increased for nearly every individual hunt that I have looked at?? Is there some simple math error going on? Database issue??
https://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/
Special Hunt Permit Drawing Results | Washington ...
Examples: Quality Elk Hunt Choice 2055 -Ten Ten - 47 applicants in 2017 vs 408 applicants in 2018
Antlered Moose Choice 8000- Kettle Range - 4,305 applicants in 2017 vs 8,919 applicants in 2018
Any explanation would be great!
Thank you!
Post by: Johnny Doe on December 18, 2018, 10:04:23 AM
Thank you for contacting the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.
This certainly appears to be an error. While we don’t have the solution quite yet, our IT department is looking into what may have caused the issue during the data pull process. Once we have updated data, we will update the page with accurate numbers.
Thank you very much for your message pointing out the mistake.
Sincerely,
Wildlife Program Customer Service
360-902-2515
mt
It still has yet to be corrected...I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, but come on guys at least remove it from the website. Oh and BTW this applies to all species and all hunts, not just Quality Elk.
Post by: Mr Mykiss on December 18, 2018, 10:14:35 AM
Their response over two weeks later was:
Thank you for contacting the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.
This certainly appears to be an error. While we don’t have the solution quite yet, our IT department is looking into what may have caused the issue during the data pull process. Once we have updated data, we will update the page with accurate numbers.
Thank you very much for your message pointing out the mistake.
Sincerely,
Wildlife Program Customer Service
360-902-2515
mt
It still has yet to be corrected...I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, but come on guys at least remove it from the website. Oh and BTW this applies to all species and all hunts, not just Quality Elk.
For those of us with $100 riding on whether or not the Mountain View applications increase in 2019 this is of the utmost importance!!
Post by: Ellensburg on December 18, 2018, 10:19:38 AM
Post by: ljsommer on December 18, 2018, 10:27:24 AM
Post by: Pathfinder101 on December 18, 2018, 10:56:49 AM
This thread is so depressing. Why, oh why, didn't anyone get me into this sport when I was a kid. I should've been building points for the last 20 years so that in another 10 I could draw something.
That's the problem with figuring the "odds".
If it helps any, apparently a math major at WSU did an experiment with a database mirroring WDFW's draw algorithm. His results showed that higher (newer) sequence numbers were more likely to be drawn in a random draw than lower (older) sequence numbers (apparently, algorithms like "some numbers better than others" :dunno: ). That means that those of us who have been in the system longer have less of a chance of being drawn than those WildID#s that have been entered in the system recently. So us old guys who have been in the system for the longest have a mathematically lower chance of drawing our desired tag, even though our name is in the hat way more times. (even if your name is in the hat lots of times, the computer still has to pick your number and the algorithm doesn't seem to "like" those lower sequence numbers).
I am sure almost all of us who hunt a lot know a kid that drew a quality tag with only a couple of points. This explains why (IMHO).
Post by: vandeman17 on December 18, 2018, 11:02:45 AM
This thread is so depressing. Why, oh why, didn't anyone get me into this sport when I was a kid. I should've been building points for the last 20 years so that in another 10 I could draw something.
two words... Point....Creep... *crickets*
Post by: WSU on December 18, 2018, 11:09:08 AM
Post by: Stein on December 18, 2018, 11:18:56 AM
It seems to me that there is little correlation between points and getting drawn. I've drawn a bull tag 3 times and all were fairly long odds. I've never drawn a quality elk or quality deer tag. My dad has drawn a quality deer tag 3 times in hard to draw muley units. Random luck and points make no appreciable difference.
Same as Powerball. Your odds double with two tickets, but they don’t really change -it’s all how you look at it.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: bobcat on December 18, 2018, 11:25:07 AM
Their response over two weeks later was:
Thank you for contacting the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.
This certainly appears to be an error. While we don’t have the solution quite yet, our IT department is looking into what may have caused the issue during the data pull process. Once we have updated data, we will update the page with accurate numbers.
Thank you very much for your message pointing out the mistake.
Sincerely,
Wildlife Program Customer Service
360-902-2515
mt
It still has yet to be corrected...I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, but come on guys at least remove it from the website. Oh and BTW this applies to all species and all hunts, not just Quality Elk.
Thanks for the update. I've been wondering when the numbers would be corrected. Hopefully they are also aware that the deer application numbers are way off as well. Most deer permits that I've looked at show in the range of 1.5 to 4.75 times more applications than last year. This is in every category- buck, quality, antlerless, youth, etc. It's also funny to me that their link to the 2018 Special Hunt Permit Drawing Result Summaries is still titled "2017 Special Hunt Permit Drawing Result Summaries."
It was nice they got the numbers put up a lot sooner than they ever have before. But it would be much better if the numbers were even somewhat close to being accurate. :rolleyes:
Post by: Mossyoak on December 28, 2018, 10:52:28 PM
Post by: huntnphool on December 28, 2018, 11:34:49 PM
Post by: Ridgerunner on January 11, 2019, 02:33:03 PM
@Johnny Doe
Post by: Johnny Doe on January 18, 2019, 08:48:51 AM
Stay tuned...
Post by: bobcat on January 18, 2019, 09:15:34 AM
Post by: jstone on January 18, 2019, 11:04:59 AM
Post by: idahohuntr on January 18, 2019, 11:20:13 AM
Your all out of your minds if you expect a government agency to give correct information.!!! :chuckle:Nearly every other western state F&G agency can put out draw odds in an accurate and timely manner. They obviously recognize that such information needs/desires by the public are growing every year...and yet here we have WDFW...the class clowns.
Post by: Stein on January 18, 2019, 11:52:06 AM
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: vandeman17 on January 18, 2019, 11:52:51 AM
They just don’t care. Another example of how they have little regard for the people paying their salaries.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
sad but true
Post by: huntnphool on January 18, 2019, 01:03:52 PM
Your all out of your minds if you expect a government agency to give correct information.!!! :chuckle:Nearly every other western state F&G agency can put out draw odds in an accurate and timely manner. They obviously recognize that such information needs/desires by the public are growing every year...and yet here we have WDFW...the class clowns.
+1
Post by: bobcat on January 18, 2019, 01:08:41 PM
Post by: Stein on January 18, 2019, 01:55:47 PM
Wyoming posts their draw reports the same time they post draw results. I don't understand why Washington can't do the same. Makes you wonder if the drawing was even done correctly this year when here it is 7 months after the drawing and the numbers in the draw result summary are so far off.
They could. They could also fix the problem that allows double or triple booking of their reservation sites. They could fight to open more fish hatcheries.
In order to do this, one of their staff has to go to their supervisor and say - Hey, we should do XYZ and here is what it will cost in time and money. With a limited amount of time and money, they are going to focus on what is important and if the answer to "why do this project" is that it will help the hunters or fishermen without a good story about the environment, Orcas, or special interests that have the ear of the governor or Olympia, there simply isn't any priority placed. Hunters and fishermen are simply not high on the priority list of the department and you could argue that is a problem with the department, a problem with the state government, or a combination.
Post by: HoofsandWings on January 21, 2019, 02:37:25 PM
Calculate the odds for each special hunt app and choose those most favorable to you.
Post by: dvolmer on January 21, 2019, 03:31:13 PM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 22, 2019, 09:41:18 AM
WDFW doesn't want you to know the true drawing odds. If you did you would give up and go out of state like anyone in their right mind should be doing now.The way they have it now it makes the odds worse...the true drawing odds would be "better".
Post by: Stein on January 22, 2019, 10:46:47 AM
Post by: Johnny Doe on January 22, 2019, 11:05:33 AM
They are still working with IT to resolve the issue... :bash:
They did correct the 2018 spring bear portion of the drawing statistics and were hopeful that now IT could apply that to the rest of the categories.
Post by: bobcat on January 22, 2019, 03:59:16 PM
Post by: Ridgerunner on January 22, 2019, 04:04:40 PM
Post by: Johnny Doe on January 23, 2019, 12:38:29 PM
I don't understand why they don't take it down. All the numbers are WAY off. Why leave bad data up on their website? It makes no sense.
:yeah: You would think someone would proof read it before it even went up...
Post by: cougforester on January 23, 2019, 12:44:25 PM
I don't understand why they don't take it down. All the numbers are WAY off. Why leave bad data up on their website? It makes no sense.
Because they don't think anyone will actually check it. Better to have some data up and have it be wrong than show no data and actually raise questions about why they aren't doing a simple task.
Post by: Stein on January 23, 2019, 01:44:12 PM
Post by: dvolmer on January 23, 2019, 03:30:16 PM
Again, they don't care. They have to wrestle with the state bureaucracy on IT issues and in the end, we don't matter much. Nobody wants to be the guy that is fighting for hunters or fisherman in current political climate of this state.Man you hit the nail on the head with that!!! We are the necessary evil that they have to deal with to get the revenue we generate for their general fund that has a hunger and appetite for money like nothing you can imagine!!!
Post by: brow7634 on January 26, 2019, 10:36:00 AM
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 26, 2019, 12:33:44 PM
You would think if it's so screwed up they would offer to reimburse us all who put in for draws last year or we could apply for free this year. It seems they messed it up they should fix it.The draw wasn’t screwed.
The numbers representing the draw are screwed.
Post by: Ridgerunner on January 29, 2019, 07:25:47 PM
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: bobcat on January 29, 2019, 10:27:49 PM
Looks updated now, at least all the numbers look reasonable and in line with prior years. Quite a few hunts had lower number of applicants this year.
It does look to be correct now. But if you go to the next link down, titled "2018 Hunter Points Used by Permit Category," those numbers still appear to be way off. Maybe they plan to fix that one next. I hope.
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 30, 2019, 06:22:57 AM
Post by: Johnny Doe on January 30, 2019, 09:41:44 AM
Looks updated now, at least all the numbers look reasonable and in line with prior years. Quite a few hunts had lower number of applicants this year.
It does look to be correct now. But if you go to the next link down, titled "2018 Hunter Points Used by Permit Category," those numbers still appear to be way off. Maybe they plan to fix that one next. I hope.
Bobcat is right, still off in the "points by permit category" which is what you need to do any calculations of draw odds.
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 30, 2019, 10:38:42 AM
Johnny Doe...our man on the inside!!!I take it back.
.
.
.
Johnny Doe do your job!!
Post by: Stein on January 30, 2019, 10:46:45 AM
Looks updated now, at least all the numbers look reasonable and in line with prior years. Quite a few hunts had lower number of applicants this year.
It does look to be correct now. But if you go to the next link down, titled "2018 Hunter Points Used by Permit Category," those numbers still appear to be way off. Maybe they plan to fix that one next. I hope.
Bobcat is right, still off in the "points by permit category" which is what you need to do any calculations of draw odds.
Maybe they don't want you to know your odds. Then again, it doesn't stop people from buying Powerball tickets. Anyone confirm a rumor that GoHunt was going to add WA this year?
Post by: X-Force on January 30, 2019, 03:36:58 PM
Looks updated now, at least all the numbers look reasonable and in line with prior years. Quite a few hunts had lower number of applicants this year.
It does look to be correct now. But if you go to the next link down, titled "2018 Hunter Points Used by Permit Category," those numbers still appear to be way off. Maybe they plan to fix that one next. I hope.
Bobcat is right, still off in the "points by permit category" which is what you need to do any calculations of draw odds.
Maybe they don't want you to know your odds. Then again, it doesn't stop people from buying Powerball tickets. Anyone confirm a rumor that GoHunt was going to add WA this year?
If GoHunt adds Washington they will have to find data on their own. I emailed WDFW today to request a link or files for points used on special permits for the past 10 or 15 years... In short their response is "exact data you are requesting is unavailable."
Post by: Stein on January 30, 2019, 04:00:27 PM
Looks updated now, at least all the numbers look reasonable and in line with prior years. Quite a few hunts had lower number of applicants this year.
It does look to be correct now. But if you go to the next link down, titled "2018 Hunter Points Used by Permit Category," those numbers still appear to be way off. Maybe they plan to fix that one next. I hope.
Bobcat is right, still off in the "points by permit category" which is what you need to do any calculations of draw odds.
Maybe they don't want you to know your odds. Then again, it doesn't stop people from buying Powerball tickets. Anyone confirm a rumor that GoHunt was going to add WA this year?
If GoHunt adds Washington they will have to find data on their own. I emailed WDFW today to request a link or files for points used on special permits for the past 10 or 15 years... In short their response is "exact data you are requesting is unavailable."
Try a freedom of information act request, they just don't want to be bothered looking for it. The data is there.
Post by: Johnny Doe on February 12, 2019, 01:16:57 PM
Apparently the "Snowmaggedon" was good for something...it appears to be fixed!! :IBCOOL:
Post by: Mr Mykiss on February 19, 2019, 07:52:23 PM
Good work JD.
Post by: bobcat on March 11, 2019, 12:37:22 PM
UPDATE:
Apparently the "Snowmaggedon" was good for something...it appears to be fixed!! :IBCOOL:
Just noticed today that the antlerless deer is still wrong. The permit I was looking at showed 3.3 times more applicants than the actual number of applicants. So they did fix some, but not all.
Post by: Mr Mykiss on March 11, 2019, 09:49:12 PM
Post by: Stein on March 11, 2019, 09:53:39 PM