Post by: oldschool on December 06, 2018, 08:50:27 AM
Post by: X-Force on December 06, 2018, 09:00:59 AM
Post by: Stein on December 06, 2018, 09:13:57 AM
That said, it’s very low and the vast majority will never draw in their lifetime regardless of how many points one has.
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Post by: Buckjunkie on December 06, 2018, 09:23:38 AM
Thanks!
Post by: bobcat on December 06, 2018, 09:26:08 AM
Post by: X-Force on December 06, 2018, 09:31:50 AM
The maximum points a person could have is 23. The first year of the point system was 1996.
And there are no OIL points for turning in poachers.
Post by: boneaddict on December 06, 2018, 09:32:31 AM
Post by: X-Force on December 06, 2018, 10:42:18 AM
however,
Last year there were 1,666,684 points in the any ram category, for 20 permits.
If you average points across permits there are 83,334 points per permit. A max point holder had 529 points. 529/83,334= 0.635%
Last year there were 12,530 applicants in the any ram category, for 20 permits.
If you average the applicants across permits there are 627 applicants per permit. Any applicant without a point system would have 1 application. 1/627= 0.159%
Max point holders have 4x better odds then if there were no points.
Last year anyone below 12 points had worse odds than if there were no points. And anyone below 10 points had less than 1/1000 odds. Putting in for the first time had 1/100,000 odds.
Post by: D-Rock425 on December 06, 2018, 10:49:34 AM
Draw odds in this state are impossible to get exact.so you're telling me there's a chance?
however,
Last year there were 1,666,684 points in the any ram category, for 20 permits.
If you average points across permits there are 83,334 points per permit. A max point holder had 529 points. 529/83,334= 0.635%
Last year there were 12,530 applicants in the any ram category, for 20 permits.
If you average the applicants across permits there are 627 applicants per permit. Any applicant without a point system would have 1 application. 1/627= 0.159%
Max point holders have 4x better odds then if there were no points.
Last year anyone below 12 points had worse odds than if there were no points. And anyone below 10 points had less than 1/1000 odds. Putting in for the first time had 1/100,000 odds.
Post by: X-Force on December 06, 2018, 10:55:23 AM
Post by: WSU on December 06, 2018, 12:20:53 PM
Draw odds in this state are impossible to get exact.so you're telling me there's a chance?
however,
Last year there were 1,666,684 points in the any ram category, for 20 permits.
If you average points across permits there are 83,334 points per permit. A max point holder had 529 points. 529/83,334= 0.635%
Last year there were 12,530 applicants in the any ram category, for 20 permits.
If you average the applicants across permits there are 627 applicants per permit. Any applicant without a point system would have 1 application. 1/627= 0.159%
Max point holders have 4x better odds then if there were no points.
Last year anyone below 12 points had worse odds than if there were no points. And anyone below 10 points had less than 1/1000 odds. Putting in for the first time had 1/100,000 odds.
Not really?
Post by: boneaddict on December 06, 2018, 12:28:53 PM
Now if you really want to fix the odds, go like Idaho. You can apply for one controlled oil hunt and if you do, no deer or elk. You gots to make choices. But I tell you what. It very much helps with drawing tags.
Post by: Rainier10 on December 06, 2018, 03:21:38 PM
There you have it. I’m trusting your math was good. I refuse to try. Seems pretty reasonable.Yep, I put in my $2,200 in advance and still didn't draw an Idaho sheep tag. I was $2,200 lighter in the wallet for a few months but I had a much better chance. :chuckle:
Now if you really want to fix the odds, go like Idaho. You can apply for one controlled oil hunt and if you do, no deer or elk. You gots to make choices. But I tell you what. It very much helps with drawing tags.
Post by: idaho guy on December 06, 2018, 04:00:35 PM
There you have it. I’m trusting your math was good. I refuse to try. Seems pretty reasonable.
Now if you really want to fix the odds, go like Idaho. You can apply for one controlled oil hunt and if you do, no deer or elk. You gots to make choices. But I tell you what. It very much helps with drawing tags.
I used too hate the way Idaho did it till I saw the odds in other states. Now that I have been educated I love it! It sucks that it took 20 years for my moose and I have not drawn much else but at least least I have a reasonable chance every year. I had 20% odds on an "unpopular" goat hunt last year. Still didn't draw! but nice having not only a chance but a really good one. Those Washington sheep odds are depressing but I will never put in anyways.
Post by: oldschool on December 06, 2018, 04:19:34 PM
Post by: PAW66 on December 06, 2018, 07:15:16 PM
Post by: Mtnwalker on December 06, 2018, 07:52:12 PM
8)
Post by: trophyhunt on December 06, 2018, 08:00:34 PM
Is there a way to find out if you had been drawn, but you choices had been filled? would your application be returned to the potyour always drawn, problem is the tags are usually filled by then. Out of all your points, only the one with the lowest random number is drawn.
Post by: coonhound on December 06, 2018, 08:01:26 PM
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Post by: Rainier10 on December 07, 2018, 08:33:47 AM
Now matter how you look at it the odds of drawing a sheep tag are Baaa-aa-dI see what you did there. :chuckle:
8)
Post by: jstone on December 07, 2018, 09:07:19 AM
Post by: sjhgraysage on December 07, 2018, 01:16:12 PM
Yes, a poor chance but a chance..... :sry:
Post by: addicted1 on December 07, 2018, 01:54:47 PM
Post by: jager on December 07, 2018, 02:43:05 PM
Best odds are buying a load of raffle tickets. If you go by odds alone that's you best bet. If it were my choice, I would go with idaho system. But, it doesn't bring in the revenue like the point system...I think
Your best odds, yes.
Just know these raffle tags are "purchased" by folks with deep pockets :twocents:
Post by: PAW66 on December 07, 2018, 03:32:08 PM
How do you find out what your numbers are?Is there a way to find out if you had been drawn, but you choices had been filled? would your application be returned to the potyour always drawn, problem is the tags are usually filled by then. Out of all your points, only the one with the lowest random number is drawn.
Post by: Falcon on December 07, 2018, 06:56:21 PM
The maximum points a person could have is 23. The first year of the point system was 1996.
:yeah:
I’m at max. The odds go down slightly each year even though the max point holders numbers drop each year. Moose is a lot easier to draw than sheep and goat. I’ve been lucky drawing the other 2.
The sheep tag would be the ultimate hat trick :drool:
Post by: jdw12885 on December 10, 2018, 01:42:13 PM
Post by: X-Force on December 10, 2018, 03:12:02 PM
Wonder how many out of state hunters have the same chance of drawing as we do :rolleyes:
I could be wrong but Ive only seen 1 out of state oil tag holder in the last couple years. I dont think we get many.
Out of state people probably buy more raffle tickets than applying for special permits.