Post by: CP on April 14, 2009, 01:46:33 PM
I’m trying to guess at my odds for being drawn, they are slim, just wondering how slim.
Post by: huntnphool on April 14, 2009, 01:48:23 PM
Post by: CP on April 14, 2009, 02:09:55 PM
Post by: Pathfinder101 on April 14, 2009, 02:11:26 PM
The far right column in the hunt choice table lists the number of 2008 Apps. Does anyone know if this is the total number of applicants for that hunt or the total number of applicant’s points for that unit?
I’m trying to guess at my odds for being drawn, they are slim, just wondering how slim.
But on the bright side CPHunter, since you are only 1 year old :chuckle:, if you start putting in this year, by the time you pass hunter's safety you will probably get drawn for a quality deer tag, and branched antler bull before you graduate high school. :tup: You will still never get drawn for a sheep tag though.... sorry.
Post by: huntnphool on April 14, 2009, 02:17:28 PM
Post by: videoman on April 14, 2009, 03:46:24 PM
Post by: NRA4LIFE on April 14, 2009, 03:52:28 PM
Post by: jackelope on April 14, 2009, 03:58:42 PM
there's a link floating around here somewhere that gives the average #of points people had to draw each tag. thats a good thing to look at. i'll see if i can find it.
Post by: HuntingFanatic on April 14, 2009, 04:05:25 PM
with so many variables, is it really possible to predict odds accurately for wa. state?
there's a link floating around here somewhere that gives the average #of points people had to draw each tag. thats a good thing to look at. i'll see if i can find it.
You find it yet? :chuckle:
Post by: jackelope on April 14, 2009, 04:06:18 PM
i'm still looking.
Post by: Pathfinder101 on April 14, 2009, 04:59:39 PM
Actually PF there is no min age requirement to take the test, you must simply be able to pass the test on your own, so since he can read and write at 1 he can still take it. :chuckle:
You are right Phool, we would let him in to take the written portion, but I am not optimistic about his chances on the field handling section. I have a 1 year old, he can barely clear the chamber and can only demonstate 2 of the carrying positions... :chuckle:
Post by: huntnphool on April 14, 2009, 05:04:52 PM
Post by: Pathfinder101 on April 14, 2009, 05:18:44 PM
You gonna take that crap CP? :chuckle:
c'mon Phool... He's 1 year old. What's he gonna do...?
Post by: CP on April 14, 2009, 08:17:49 PM
I should take one of those hunter's safety classes though some day, when I grow up.
Post by: bobcat on April 14, 2009, 09:37:30 PM
no. if bobcat comes on here, he has it.
i'm still looking.
Oh, just saw this...must be why "Jerome" PM'd me and asked for a link. All you have to do is go to the WDFW site and it's right there, but here you go:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/wlm/game/hunter/specperm/
And, there is no way to predict odds of drawing. Not when everybody has the option of putting down 4 choices and there's no way of knowing how many points each applicant has. All you can do is what I do and divide the number of applicants by the number of permits and write it all down. This number won't be the actual odds but is a way to compare.
Post by: snag_point on April 14, 2009, 09:59:39 PM
New to this site, but not to WA state hunting. You think that it is hard to draw, What you don't realize is that many of the tags that are drawn are the result of extra points rewarded to hunters that got them by turning in another hunter on a violation. When I got my cougar sealed this March a bio told me that in one on the trophy bull elk units in the Blues, only one hunter had gotten the draw the old fashion way. All the other tags drawn where from awarded Pts. Award hunters with $$$$ but not pts. Your chances of getting that wonderful once in maybe 10 or so years, has gotten a heck of a lot harder. If you know how the game is played you can beat the system and get drawn for trophy hunts. And that fellow hunters is WRONG.
Snag point
Post by: jason4429 on April 15, 2009, 07:22:15 PM
Post by: Crunchy on April 15, 2009, 07:29:05 PM
I have heard that the anti-pukes also apply for tags .
Now that would suck. Just imagine how bad they could make it.
Post by: Pathfinder101 on April 16, 2009, 01:23:29 AM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on April 16, 2009, 05:57:06 AM
Post by: 7mag. on April 16, 2009, 01:28:07 PM
I have heard that the anti-pukes also apply for tags .
Anybody that would go through that much trouble just to screw us is a sick individual with mental problems. Must be the same retards that follow armed hunters into the woods, banging pots and pans to scare the wildlife.
Post by: GoldTip on April 16, 2009, 01:35:20 PM
Don't worry, most of them don't really have jobs and can't afford to apply...
Hell, they can beg for 10 minutes on a street corner for the cost a special app in this state, it's ridiculous. Raise the application fee and lower the number of units you can apply in and people will start drawing some tags.
Post by: Elkaholic daWg on April 21, 2009, 11:14:03 AM
The far right column in the hunt choice table lists the number of 2008 Apps. Does anyone know if this is the total number of applicants for that hunt or the total number of applicant’s points for that unit?
I’m trying to guess at my odds for being drawn, they are slim, just wondering how slim.
I bet WDFW gets a ton of applicants (and money) for those few 3 pt or better Whitetail tags just from those who would love to get an extra weekend in the NE late hunt.
Post by: MIKEXRAY on April 26, 2009, 01:16:14 AM
Post by: bobcat on April 26, 2009, 09:13:28 AM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on April 26, 2009, 09:28:49 AM
WFDW was running the draw and didnt know how many applicants were in it as of three years ago...........so it was impossible to tell if it was done correctly :yike:
Post by: B.G.hunter on April 28, 2009, 09:47:19 PM
Post by: tony04 on April 28, 2009, 10:24:01 PM
Post by: Ray on April 28, 2009, 10:50:22 PM
Post by: tony04 on April 28, 2009, 10:59:46 PM
Post by: B.G.hunter on April 29, 2009, 08:58:05 AM
Post by: tony04 on April 29, 2009, 09:46:21 PM
Post by: Bob33 on April 30, 2009, 09:58:03 PM
If someone applies for four hunt choices, he will appear as an applicant for each of the four hunts. However, if he is drawn on my first choice, he is obviously out of the running for the second through fourth choices. If you read the reports you can see the number of applicants "drawn for another hunt".
As noted Washington squares the number of points, which gives applicants with more points exponentially greater chances of being drawn. An applicant with four points has 4x6 (16) names in the hat. An applicant with 10 points has 100 names in the hat.
You can draw the first year with 1 point. You just typically have a lower chance than someone with more points, depending on the hunt. There are some hunts with fewer applicants than permits, so you have a 100% chance regardless of points.
The number that is missing is the average number of points for all applicants for a particular hunt.
Post by: buckhorn2 on May 01, 2009, 10:08:59 AM
Post by: bobcat on May 01, 2009, 10:23:01 AM
Post by: Red Dawg on May 01, 2009, 11:07:09 AM
Post by: B.G.hunter on May 01, 2009, 08:38:52 PM
Post by: Slider on May 01, 2009, 09:07:46 PM
An applicant with four points has 4x6 (16) names in the hat. An applicant with 10 points has 100 names in the hat.
It should be 4x4 is 16 chances.
Post by: bobcat on May 01, 2009, 09:11:11 PM
I noticed that too, but he still got the right answer.
Post by: 7mag. on May 01, 2009, 09:41:40 PM
Slider,
I noticed that too, but he still got the right answer.
I hated showing my work in school. As long as I got the right answer, who cares how I got there? :chuckle:
Post by: Up a Creek on May 02, 2009, 01:11:26 PM