Post by: Stein on January 28, 2021, 08:15:47 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/general-motors-plans-to-exclusively-offer-electric-vehicles-by-2035.html
Quote
General Motors wants to end production of all diesel- and gasoline-powered cars, trucks and SUVs by 2035 and shift its entire new fleet to electric vehicles as part of a broader plan to become carbon neutral by 2040, the company said Thursday.
Post by: highside74 on January 28, 2021, 08:22:36 AM
Maybe they are just trying to look like they are working on it so the Dems dont just force it on them like California.
Post by: JimmyHoffa on January 28, 2021, 08:32:13 AM
Post by: fishngamereaper on January 28, 2021, 08:38:42 AM
Post by: Stein on January 28, 2021, 08:40:38 AM
Post by: Hilltop123 on January 28, 2021, 08:42:34 AM
Post by: Special T on January 28, 2021, 08:46:40 AM
Must have some real confidence in a battery that will be able to deliver being available by then.The same guy that invented the lithium ion battery has a new silicate one he is working on. He is old as dirt so i hope he figures ut out before he kicks the bucket.
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Post by: Stein on January 28, 2021, 08:52:36 AM
How much hay, will a Chevy Volt haul?
Tesla Model S has 537 hp and 487 pounds of torque, that's 1/2 the torque of the largest F-350 at zero rpm on a passenger car. I don't think ICE engines want to pick a fight with electric on torque. Fuel capacity, yes, but not torque.
Trains, space shuttle crawler, all electric motors when you need raw towing power, the torque from zero can't be beat. Of course they are powered by diesel generators, but the mover is electric.
It does seem like we need another generational development in electricity storage though to break through what might be a plateau of sorts in who can benefit from electric vehicles.
Post by: Magnum_Willys on January 28, 2021, 08:55:02 AM
Once affordable trucks like these hit the showrooms 30% of the people will switch so gas will get no new model improvements and electrics will get better every year - demand for highend gas will disappear.
Post by: hughjorgan on January 28, 2021, 09:17:33 AM
Post by: JimmyHoffa on January 28, 2021, 09:21:45 AM
Post by: Special T on January 28, 2021, 09:26:37 AM
As far as the Grid not handling it... Im guessing that lots of chargers would be doing the charging during no peak load times like the middle of the night.
Post by: Magnum_Willys on January 28, 2021, 09:42:04 AM
If i had a micro hydro plant, steam powered generator or some other way to charge it up I could be completely independent.
Hmmmm - anyone suggest a good wood-fired generator? Maybe on a trailer to pull to elk camp. Love this whole new clean energy thing !
Post by: Dan-o on January 28, 2021, 09:43:03 AM
They will end before then - look at the new electric Hummer specs - 1000 hp, 0-60 3 secs, 10 min charge per 100 miles, 400 mile range. 10 times torque of Cummins.
Once affordable trucks like these hit the showrooms 30% of the people will switch so gas will get no new model improvements and electrics will get better every year - demand for highend gas will disappear.
I think you're right.
The thought of an electric truck just isn't appealing to most of us...... yet.
When you're towing your 5th wheel up Snoqualmie and the E-trucks are whizzing past you on the left with their 5th wheels, I think some of us old die hards will change our minds. Plus, E-vehicle technology is improving rapidly.
Post by: baker5150 on January 28, 2021, 09:46:40 AM
Making only electric vehicles will never happen. The power grid can’t handle it. Not to mention you’ll still need fossil fuels to generate the power so you can charge these vehicles. The left is stupid as they come.
This is the issue no one wants to include in their "Net Zero" plan. Power is simply being taken for granted.
Power companies have been issuing rebates for energy efficiency for decades. Why? The grid doesn't have the ability to handle the load.
It's cheaper for them to give you a $500 check for buying an energy efficient appliance, than it is to invest in a grid that can handle the load of less efficient appliances.
Heck, PSE will give you a fridge FOR FREE if your current fridge is old enough, they even deliver, install, and haul off the old one.
They have screwed themselves by not investing in upgrading their own systems. They see it now, but it might be too late.
We will soon see load shedding devices in all our homes. We will be forced to install battery banks that can charge in off-peak hours and distribute during on-peak hours. That is, until the grid can't keep up, and off-peak becomes non existant. Which WILL happen, since all these cars and battery banks will be forced to charge at night.
The City of Seattle is trying to enact code to require all new domestic water heating to be electric only. No more natural gas, oil, or propane. H/P or resistive only.
Meanwhile.... Bonneville, PSE and SCL, and freaking out, knowing fully that they can't handle or keep up with that kind of load. But they aren't listening.
So again, what will happen? Load shedding. You will no longer have control of your own power consumption.
Load shedding is already happening in the San Juans. Better start looking into Tesla Powerwalls and Solar panels.
Post by: vandeman17 on January 28, 2021, 09:53:08 AM
Post by: highside74 on January 28, 2021, 10:16:02 AM
From solar panels no less
Post by: JimmyHoffa on January 28, 2021, 10:30:32 AM
Post by: vandeman17 on January 28, 2021, 10:32:35 AM
And most solar panels (photovoltaics) are from China, so far from any carbon offset. Usually they are produced with gases that are thousands of times worse than CO2 and remain in the atmosphere many times longer. Just a bunch more greeny virtue signaling--like the home energy codes requiring higher R values that are only deliverable by using foams that are produced with gases much worse than the CO2 they claim to be preventing.
Like Kerry flying around the globe on his private jet? That kind of virtue signaling? :o
Post by: kselkhunter on January 28, 2021, 10:45:39 AM
There are autonomous EV taxis in service in America right now in multiple cities....first design test happened in 2009. There are autonomous EV delivery vehicles and autonomous EV passenger vehicles in field trials in America right now. Autonomous semi trucks are in field testing in China now in diesel models, and EV versions are in development. 50,000 autonomous trucks per year will be deployed in China starting in 2023 with EV versions planned for shortly after that. US autonomous diesel and EV semi trucking test requests are already going through the rigorous US approvals process....which takes many years due to US government regulations (hence why China testing happens first).
Current semi truck EV batteries in development are initially to deliver 500 miles range, with 800+ miles (theoretical depending on load) are right behind that in the development cycle.
In terms of nationwide energy grid, there is a reason why Tesla and now the independent charging companies are offering solar package bundles with the home based charging stations. And many new public charging stations have their own solar powered charging stations with them. And there is a huge push on improving charging efficiency and reducing costs now that volumes are ramping.
But yes, the US utility companies are also going to be having to ramp up their electricity capacity over the next decade and they know it. That is a problem needing solving, regardless of whether car companies go EV only.
2035 is 14 years away......
Post by: kselkhunter on January 28, 2021, 10:47:32 AM
And most solar panels (photovoltaics) are from China, so far from any carbon offset. Usually they are produced with gases that are thousands of times worse than CO2 and remain in the atmosphere many times longer. Just a bunch more greeny virtue signaling--like the home energy codes requiring higher R values that are only deliverable by using foams that are produced with gases much worse than the CO2 they claim to be preventing.
You can specify a US or Canadian solar panel when you buy them. If you buy from China for your solar panel, that is your individual decision.......
Post by: Stein on January 28, 2021, 10:48:53 AM
Look no further than California that already has brown outs. Now you want every single car to be electric and getting charged daily? :bdid:
Most of CA's problems (not including the Enron thing) are from planned outages due to fire danger.
Generation isn't an issue in the US, distributed generation does create some timing challenges, but the utilities will gladly sell you as much electricity as you can take.
That's CA which is a challenging regulatory environment. In Texas, there are nodes with negative pricing - the utility will pay you to take electricity at certain times of the day because there is so much excess generation on the grid. Loose regulatory = tons of wind and other types of generation everywhere. At our facility, we're lucky to get paid 2 cents per kWhr. Most of the time it's closer to $0.001 wholesale.
Post by: Special T on January 28, 2021, 10:49:04 AM
And at the same time off grid building is discouraged, and people that have been promised the power companies would buy back surpluses have been lied to.Making only electric vehicles will never happen. The power grid can’t handle it. Not to mention you’ll still need fossil fuels to generate the power so you can charge these vehicles. The left is stupid as they come.
This is the issue no one wants to include in their "Net Zero" plan. Power is simply being taken for granted.
Power companies have been issuing rebates for energy efficiency for decades. Why? The grid doesn't have the ability to handle the load.
It's cheaper for them to give you a $500 check for buying an energy efficient appliance, than it is to invest in a grid that can handle the load of less efficient appliances.
Heck, PSE will give you a fridge FOR FREE if your current fridge is old enough, they even deliver, install, and haul off the old one.
They have screwed themselves by not investing in upgrading their own systems. They see it now, but it might be too late.
We will soon see load shedding devices in all our homes. We will be forced to install battery banks that can charge in off-peak hours and distribute during on-peak hours. That is, until the grid can't keep up, and off-peak becomes non existant. Which WILL happen, since all these cars and battery banks will be forced to charge at night.
The City of Seattle is trying to enact code to require all new domestic water heating to be electric only. No more natural gas, oil, or propane. H/P or resistive only.
Meanwhile.... Bonneville, PSE and SCL, and freaking out, knowing fully that they can't handle or keep up with that kind of load. But they aren't listening.
So again, what will happen? Load shedding. You will no longer have control of your own power consumption.
Load shedding is already happening in the San Juans. Better start looking into Tesla Powerwalls and Solar panels.
It will be a long time before i get rid of my Cummins truck.
The power that bee want to push this whole Green Schtick, and if i could figure out how it makes me more free and independent id probably sign on.
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Post by: Stein on January 28, 2021, 10:56:00 AM
There is virtually an unlimited amount of power available and can be scaled up as fast as we want or need it.
There are issues on the distribution side, particularly on loading of residential transformers, but in the short term it can be addressed through timing and load management. Over time, the utility will upgrade for anyone wanting to buy the power once there is a demonstrated need. Regulators will be much more open to cost recovery when it is directly linked to ev charging needs.
Battery technology is the choke point for sure.
Post by: WSU on January 28, 2021, 11:03:17 AM
Many times so since they want to get rid of hydro.
Economics may get rid of hydro on the Columbia. BPA's rates are not competitive with rates on the open market, and their contracts are up for renewal (or not) in 2028. An article I read recently had BPA's rates at something like $36 per mega watt hour and the open market at $21-23.
Post by: Jingles on January 28, 2021, 11:08:37 AM
Many times so since they want to get rid of hydro.E
What they need to do for all these people that want to breach the dams and close the coal fired generators is just shut off all E production except for solar and wind for 30 days. See how long that would last before folks changed their minds and started bytching about no power.
Post by: Stein on January 28, 2021, 11:12:19 AM
Many times so since they want to get rid of hydro.E
What they need to do for all these people that want to breach the dams and close the coal fired generators is just shut off all E production except for solar and wind for 30 days. See how long that would last before folks changed their minds and started bytching about no power.
Agreed. The false argument is whether we should have hydro or not. The honest argument is whether we should have hydro or ????. If you remove a dam, you need to replace it with something. Pick your poison knowing that as great as wind is, it's not base generation or spinning reserves so you would need wind + coal, gas or nuclear.
Post by: Hilltop123 on January 28, 2021, 11:37:53 AM
Magical Unicorn farts, yup a most excellent substitute.Many times so since they want to get rid of hydro.E
What they need to do for all these people that want to breach the dams and close the coal fired generators is just shut off all E production except for solar and wind for 30 days. See how long that would last before folks changed their minds and started bytching about no power.
Agreed. The false argument is whether we should have hydro or not. The honest argument is whether we should have hydro or ????. If you remove a dam, you need to replace it with something. Pick your poison knowing that as great as wind is, it's not base generation or spinning reserves so you would need wind + coal, gas or nuclear.
Post by: KFhunter on January 28, 2021, 11:52:08 AM
Used cars will be a fortune and gas will be unafordable if they all decide to go that route.Ya, lip service
Maybe they are just trying to look like they are working on it so the Dems dont just force it on them like California.
Hedging the Biden admin will be single term
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Post by: JimmyHoffa on January 28, 2021, 11:54:34 AM
:yeah: Tough sometimes to try to explain away the real carbon costs in many new technologies if you trace it back through demand (like extra mining and refining of certain elements) to get a more accurate comparison of the trade offs with existing tech where much of the cost is sunk.Many times so since they want to get rid of hydro.E
What they need to do for all these people that want to breach the dams and close the coal fired generators is just shut off all E production except for solar and wind for 30 days. See how long that would last before folks changed their minds and started bytching about no power.
Agreed. The false argument is whether we should have hydro or not. The honest argument is whether we should have hydro or ????. If you remove a dam, you need to replace it with something. Pick your poison knowing that as great as wind is, it's not base generation or spinning reserves so you would need wind + coal, gas or nuclear.
Post by: baker5150 on January 28, 2021, 12:18:24 PM
Look no further than California that already has brown outs. Now you want every single car to be electric and getting charged daily? :bdid:
Most of CA's problems (not including the Enron thing) are from planned outages due to fire danger.
Generation isn't an issue in the US, distributed generation does create some timing challenges, but the utilities will gladly sell you as much electricity as you can take.
That's CA which is a challenging regulatory environment. In Texas, there are nodes with negative pricing - the utility will pay you to take electricity at certain times of the day because there is so much excess generation on the grid. Loose regulatory = tons of wind and other types of generation everywhere. At our facility, we're lucky to get paid 2 cents per kWhr. Most of the time it's closer to $0.001 wholesale.
Generation will become a MAJOR issue very soon. It's only a matter of time before the new admin attacks fossil fuel generation the same way Obama did.
Coal and NG make up roughly half of the power generated in the US.
With regulations scaling back both, and an end game of none, that is a lot of generation that needs to be made up, especially as demand increases.
Damns are being removed, not installed.
Wind and Solar aren't the answer on the larger scale.
The only real answer I see is Nuclear, which we all know is the big scary elephant in the room, that no one wants to talk about.
Post by: Stein on January 28, 2021, 12:44:59 PM
With wind, you don't need as much nat gas generation and it's coming online at remarkable rates although slowing. Offshore will almost certainly get back on track in the next 4 years.
I'm not familiar with coal, but with nat gas, it isn't or won't be banned, but will have more or less regulation which will impact the cost of the electricity but not whether they can build them or not.
Just like what we see with oil extraction, if the cost of electricity jumps, capacity will follow.
How well the feds manage transmission remains to be seen. You need capacity, transmission and distribution all together. Right now, transmission is the 800 pound elephant in the room. Capacity is relatively easy.
Post by: dontgetcrabs on January 28, 2021, 12:46:10 PM
:chuckle: :chuckle: :chuckle:
Post by: huntnphool on January 28, 2021, 01:51:53 PM
Look no further than California that already has brown outs. Now you want every single car to be electric and getting charged daily? :bdid:
+1
Post by: ballpark on January 28, 2021, 02:07:26 PM
The one good thing about eletric is that the "Fuel" is no longer locked into gas/diesel/propane. If i had a micro hydro plant, steam powered generator or some other way to charge it up I could be completely independent.
As far as the Grid not handling it... Im guessing that lots of chargers would be doing the charging during no peak load times like the middle of the night.
How will you generate your steam?
Post by: Stein on January 28, 2021, 02:15:30 PM
The one good thing about eletric is that the "Fuel" is no longer locked into gas/diesel/propane. If i had a micro hydro plant, steam powered generator or some other way to charge it up I could be completely independent.
As far as the Grid not handling it... Im guessing that lots of chargers would be doing the charging during no peak load times like the middle of the night.
How will you generate your steam?
Run a pipe to DC? :chuckle:
It would allow many people to install more PV as they could utilize the electricity to offset the retail price vs selling it to the utility at offset prices or not at all.
If TOU pricing at the retail level gains traction, you could charge off the grid at very low rates.
Fairly soon you will be able to use your EV as part of your backup power system, using the EV battery to power part of the home for some period or to compliment PV, standby generators and dedicated battery storage.
There is also a bunch of fuel cell technology working through the development process, might see more there in a year or two.
Post by: Special T on January 28, 2021, 02:16:41 PM
First off this isnt a "Green" thing for me so the fuel source or how much carbon it produces is zero care to me. Coal? Firewood? Some combo with geothermal?The one good thing about eletric is that the "Fuel" is no longer locked into gas/diesel/propane. If i had a micro hydro plant, steam powered generator or some other way to charge it up I could be completely independent.
As far as the Grid not handling it... Im guessing that lots of chargers would be doing the charging during no peak load times like the middle of the night.
How will you generate your steam?
I love the fact that in the US we are now oil exporters. Ive always hated the fact that tin pot dictators and religious wackjobs could dictate certain things to us. Oil is and will continue to be important, but once energy storage makes another leap... like the difference between nicad and lithium... eletric transportation will mean ALL forms of energy production can work.
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Post by: Fl0und3rz on January 28, 2021, 02:16:54 PM
:chuckle:
Post by: follow maggie on January 28, 2021, 02:19:43 PM
They will end before then - look at the new electric Hummer specs - 1000 hp, 0-60 3 secs, 10 min charge per 100 miles, 400 mile range. 10 times torque of Cummins.
Once affordable trucks like these hit the showrooms 30% of the people will switch so gas will get no new model improvements and electrics will get better every year - demand for highend gas will disappear.
I think what you’re not taking into consideration is that under high torque applications- like towing- the range drops drastically. They have a really long ways to go on that. TFL did a towing test with their Tesla and the range was horrible.
If they crack that nut and make it affordable, I’ll buy one.
Post by: CP on January 28, 2021, 02:23:23 PM
Post by: Bunny Thumper on January 28, 2021, 06:43:08 PM
Post by: Special T on January 28, 2021, 06:43:54 PM
Just curious, what’s the plan for running our military on windmills?Mini nuclear reactors!
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Post by: Norman89 on February 01, 2021, 08:44:54 PM
If i had a micro hydro plant, steam powered generator or some other way to charge it up I could be completely independent.
Hmmmm - anyone suggest a good wood-fired generator? Maybe on a trailer to pull to elk camp. Love this whole new clean energy thing !
If your really interest, come on over to the dow forum. Information abounds there. I'm already powering my shed and carport off solar and have been for 2 years. Current project is wk gassifier to fuel my toyota for commuting. With fab skills and willingness to sacrifice a little hp, I'll be driving a 70+mpg toyota by years end when running in hybrid mode burning wood and dino, and pure woodgas at cruising speeds. Gassifiers are scarce as hens teeth in Washington state, but I'm just not interested in paying dimslees gas taxes if I can do things my own way. Eventually will be running generator powering the house in the same fashion, ie kiss my *** pse power company. Off grid as can be for cost savings while remaining tied to the grid per washington's no off grid livid bs
Post by: Stein on February 01, 2021, 08:50:11 PM
Just curious, what’s the plan for running our military on windmills?Mini nuclear reactors!
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The military are some of the most interested. I read a paper about the casualties in Iraq and the percentage that were due to fuel convoys being ambushed was pretty eye opening. Solar, wind, fuel cell, min-reactor, whatever doesn't need a convoy every few days to keep it running.
Many land bases are going towards microgrids so they control their power and aren't reliant on the local grid.
I don't think GM will be 100% electric in 2035, but it's a bold statement that will either be the best or worst idea they have had since 2008.
Post by: Mudman on February 01, 2021, 09:17:44 PM
Post by: Stein on February 01, 2021, 09:27:25 PM
I'm actually a big proponent of a mixed fuel system at least for my generation and probably the next. One administration rewards A and punishes B. The next administration rewards B and punishes A. We move forward a tiny few shuffle steps waiting for the hammer to be dropped on our head. Just get the heck out of the way. 100% coal isn't the answer, neither is 100% wind (or pv, fuel cell, or any platform).