Post by: kselkhunter on June 02, 2022, 12:59:47 PM
Here are the Seed Numbers:
Goat 6104290
Sheep 9881595
Elk 9252880
Buck 8879923
Antlerless Deer 5421431
Antelope 4529338
Premium Elk 0275018
Premium Buck 3255580
Premium Antelope 0815904
Post by: D-Rock425 on June 02, 2022, 01:13:29 PM
Post by: High Climber on June 02, 2022, 01:16:04 PM
Post by: kselkhunter on June 02, 2022, 01:28:13 PM
Oregon assigns a random number to your application for a controlled hunt at the time you apply, although the number can change if you change during the "change period" after submission. Which is why the app number wasn't visible in our accounts until this morning (you had until yesterday to make changes to your application). Oregon then does a live feed drawing on YouTube where members of the public are invited to pull the ping pong balls from the ping pong mixer. So it's a double random number situation, one for your app # and one for the seed number. Oregon's software then starts at the seed number and indexes tags handed out above that seed number based on the closest application to the seed number. And keeps going until all tags are handed out. 75% of the tags go to the highest point holders. 25% of the tags are lottery draw, but start with the same seed number as the 75% pool did. For OIL and Premium tags, it's just the same process as the 25% pool....lottery as there are not preference points for OIL or Premium draws.
So it's really those of us hoping to pull in the 25% pool, or hoping to pull an OIL, that are really paying attention to the seed/app number release today. Because if you have the number of points to pull the tag in the 75% pool, you don't really care about app number vs. seed number.
Example:
Sheep seed # is 9881595. If your application number is 9881596, you're guaranteed drawing a sheep tag. If you're application number is 9881594, you're guaranteed not drawing that tag (because there will always be more people applying for sheep tags than number of tags available). And in between becomes a calculation assuming an equal distribution as an estimate. If you applied as a non-resident for John Day #2, and there was a similar number of non-resident applications as last year at 1,730 applicants going after 2 tags. So each application would be spread roughly every 5780 numbers. So if you're sitting on an application number say 5,000 above the seed number and there are two tags available, you'll be watching very closely for results to post in your account on June 20th. But it's not an equal distribution, and I've seen people pull a sheep tag being 30K above the seed number and even one guy was 102K above the seed number one year. However, if you're millions of numbers away from the sheep seed number, then you know you are not drawing that tag....
Post by: kselkhunter on June 02, 2022, 01:32:32 PM
Post by: vandeman17 on June 02, 2022, 01:44:09 PM
@vandeman17 your inbox is full (tried replying to your PM on this topic)
cleared space
Post by: mp.hunter on June 02, 2022, 02:35:22 PM
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Post by: kselkhunter on June 02, 2022, 03:07:13 PM
Well I’m off 18k for premium elk, I may have a chance
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Depends on which unit and how many people applied, but yeah I'd be watching my ODFW account on June 20th closely if I were only 18K over.....
My closest application is 1.3M over. The rest are all in the 3.2M to 8.6M over range. Bad year of app numbers for me....
Post by: mp.hunter on June 02, 2022, 03:31:23 PM
It had 315 apps last yearWell I’m off 18k for premium elk, I may have a chance
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Depends on which unit and how many people applied, but yeah I'd be watching my ODFW account on June 20th closely if I were only 18K over.....
My closest application is 1.3M over. The rest are all in the 3.2M to 8.6M over range. Bad year of app numbers for me....
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Post by: haftard on June 02, 2022, 03:33:14 PM
Post by: kselkhunter on June 02, 2022, 04:21:53 PM
It had 315 apps last yearWell I’m off 18k for premium elk, I may have a chance
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Depends on which unit and how many people applied, but yeah I'd be watching my ODFW account on June 20th closely if I were only 18K over.....
My closest application is 1.3M over. The rest are all in the 3.2M to 8.6M over range. Bad year of app numbers for me....
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Based on 315 apps, that is an average distribution of application numbers every 31,746. If you're only 18K over.....you have a decent chance. Of course the distribution won't be an average distribution for those 315 apps so somebody could end up in front of you...but you have a great application number. Good luck. Hope you get it. My best friend drew a Premium elk tag the first year they were offered, and it's great having such a long season and any weapon choice.
Post by: robescc on June 06, 2022, 12:34:15 AM
Post by: ShaneTyTrey on June 09, 2022, 03:21:15 PM
Post by: Ricochet on June 10, 2022, 01:15:06 PM
Post by: MeepDog on June 10, 2022, 02:28:34 PM
Post by: kselkhunter on June 10, 2022, 02:40:33 PM
I don't understand the difference between the resident applications and the non resident. Are they different pools? Diff odds at all?
Non-residents get allocated a percentage of the tags available in Oregon. Antelope is 3% limit, elk/deer/bear is 5% limit, and sheep/goat is no less than 5% and no more than 10%. And every other year the outfitters get access to half of the non-resident tags (whatever tags the outfitters don't purchase by April 15 goes back into the controlled drawing for non-residents).
So your odds vary based on how many non-residents apply for the specific tag you applied for, compared to how many non-resident tags are available for that hunt.
Post by: Ricochet on June 10, 2022, 05:00:41 PM
Post by: HAGEMANIAC on June 13, 2022, 06:46:44 PM
Post by: ShaneTyTrey on June 13, 2022, 07:03:18 PM
My Elk # is 8002372, so I'm assuming that is awful?
Yes, that is awful.
Post by: Browndawg on June 13, 2022, 07:29:48 PM
My Elk # is 8002372, so I'm assuming that is awful?
Yes, that is awful.
Your number is closer than mine. Disappointing for sure.
Post by: ShaneTyTrey on June 13, 2022, 08:40:10 PM
Post by: HAGEMANIAC on June 13, 2022, 09:31:16 PM
My Elk # is 8002372, so I'm assuming that is awful?
Yes, that is awful.
Your number is closer than mine. Disappointing for sure.
The disappointing part for me is the unit I'd normally hunt went to draw, so that $50 dollar tag now costs me $588 and I would have to burn my points to get it unless I get lucky enough to draw it as a second choice.
Post by: vandeman17 on June 14, 2022, 09:03:32 AM
My Elk # is 8002372, so I'm assuming that is awful?Ours is bad too
Post by: vandeman17 on June 15, 2022, 07:53:04 PM
Post by: finnman on June 15, 2022, 08:55:30 PM
Post by: Crunchy on June 15, 2022, 09:28:26 PM
Post by: kselkhunter on June 15, 2022, 10:53:51 PM
Post by: vandeman17 on June 16, 2022, 08:20:07 AM
ODFW only releases official results on June 20th now. No more early releases.
Well shoot. That is a bummer but I will say that knowing this going forward, I will be happy. Tell me ahead of time when the draw date is and I am good with it
Post by: rtspring on June 16, 2022, 08:43:05 AM
ODFW only releases official results on June 20th now. No more early releases.
Not true! The hunting book says “by june 20th”. Also june 20th is a holiday!
Post by: rtspring on June 16, 2022, 08:45:05 AM
Post by: vandeman17 on June 16, 2022, 08:49:13 AM
Read
This is what I thought as well but who the heck knows anymore. I just keep waiting to see an Oregon draw results thread to pop up then I was going to go check
Post by: mp.hunter on June 16, 2022, 09:10:22 AM
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Post by: ShaneTyTrey on June 16, 2022, 08:21:32 PM
Post by: Bone collector 13 on June 19, 2022, 06:53:07 PM
Post by: rtspring on June 19, 2022, 07:07:52 PM
Anyone know what time tomorrow?
No one really knows!!! Im guessing early am