Post by: ASienkiewich on June 16, 2022, 12:00:48 AM
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Post by: huntnphool on June 16, 2022, 12:14:26 AM
I’ve drawn three HIGH quality deer tags in the last 20 years, four since they started it in 95! :twocents:
Post by: huntnnw on June 16, 2022, 01:23:55 AM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on June 16, 2022, 05:35:00 AM
If you apply for units with the lowest number of permits, you must be ready to be disappointed!HIGH :chuckle:
I’ve drawn three HIGH quality deer tags in the last 20 years, four since they started it in 95! :twocents:
Post by: D-Rock425 on June 16, 2022, 06:09:03 AM
Post by: Buzzsaw461 on June 16, 2022, 06:18:44 AM
Post by: bobcat on June 16, 2022, 06:29:20 AM
Post by: JWBINX on June 16, 2022, 06:40:05 AM
More applicants and less tags.
It sucks when you have 24 years of points for sheep and a 17 year old draws a tag.
Just saying?
Post by: trophyhunt on June 16, 2022, 07:01:20 AM
Post by: phildobaggins on June 16, 2022, 08:10:23 AM
I think its all luck!
More applicants and less tags.
It sucks when you have 24 years of points for sheep and a 17 year old draws a tag.
Just saying?
:yeah: Happy for them, but it does sting a little. Didn't someone's 12 year old son draw a Swakane ram tag last year? Maybe Chelan Butte, but either way, feel ya.
Post by: trophyhunt on June 16, 2022, 08:13:52 AM
Post by: kentrek on June 16, 2022, 08:26:10 AM
Post by: vandeman17 on June 16, 2022, 08:44:50 AM
Post by: kentrek on June 16, 2022, 09:06:55 AM
Here's an example for someone with 20 points
5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23
Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!
Post by: vandeman17 on June 16, 2022, 09:10:35 AM
The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better
Here's an example for someone with 20 points
5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23
Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!
Agreed. I was talking about the "higher" end tags like Entiat rifle where even with 18 points, you have less than a 1% chance of drawing and then you add in point creep so that the next year your odds go up slightly but the amount isn't statistically significant. Going from something like .763% odds with 18 points to the next year having .842% odds with 19% isn't really better odds. :twocents:
Post by: kentrek on June 16, 2022, 09:22:25 AM
The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better
Here's an example for someone with 20 points
5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23
Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!
Agreed. I was talking about the "higher" end tags like Entiat rifle where even with 18 points, you have less than a 1% chance of drawing and then you add in point creep so that the next year your odds go up slightly but the amount isn't statistically significant. Going from something like .763% odds with 18 points to the next year having .842% odds with 19% isn't really better odds. :twocents:
For sure, double the odds of nothing and you still don't have much...id highly recommend not putting in for those tags with out being 99.9% ready to not draw
A ton of tags are overrated when compared to other opportunities when considering the 20+ year investment
Post by: vandeman17 on June 16, 2022, 09:27:28 AM
The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better
Here's an example for someone with 20 points
5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23
Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!
Agreed. I was talking about the "higher" end tags like Entiat rifle where even with 18 points, you have less than a 1% chance of drawing and then you add in point creep so that the next year your odds go up slightly but the amount isn't statistically significant. Going from something like .763% odds with 18 points to the next year having .842% odds with 19% isn't really better odds. :twocents:
For sure, double the odds of nothing and you still don't have much...id highly recommend not putting in for those tags with out being 99.9% ready to not draw
A ton of tags are overrated when compared to other opportunities when considering the 20+ year investment
Exactly and its why when I apply for them, I am not disappointed that I didn't draw because I went in knowing my odds were garbage.
Post by: ASienkiewich on June 16, 2022, 09:43:18 AM
My family doesn’t put in for eniat or desert, so I feel like the tags are just avoiding us
I’ve had great luck with elk tags and hunted moose twice before 30 years old, so I guess there’s that!
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Post by: TD3939 on June 17, 2022, 08:06:22 AM
Post by: builtfordtough on June 17, 2022, 09:23:20 AM
Post by: Stein on June 17, 2022, 10:46:18 AM
The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better
Here's an example for someone with 20 points
5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23
Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!
The math is actually worse than that due to two things:
1) number of tags may (has been) going down in many areas, thus the odds plummet.
2) More points in the pool each year mean your odds often (usually, almost always?) go down every year. This is the one I don't think many people wrap their head around. The system is designed and sold to reward people who have more points (which it does), but your odds are likely going down every year even as your points increase. The factors driving it down outweigh the additional point you get every year. More people enter and few are cleared out, so your percentage of the total often goes down one year to the next.
Even with something like GoHunt, remember it looks backwards which may or may not reflect what is going on moving forward.
If I had to guess, I would bet the average hunter with more than 10 points is estimating their odds about 10x what they really are. This is evidenced by people that are surprised when they DIDN'T draw a tag with actual 7-8% draw odds.
Post by: Gentrys on June 17, 2022, 11:55:15 AM
18 Quality Deer
17 Quality Elk
Did draw a cow tag this year with 7 points
Post by: MLBowhunting on June 17, 2022, 12:08:55 PM
Post by: jackelope on June 17, 2022, 12:20:03 PM
Post by: jackelope on June 17, 2022, 12:23:20 PM
The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better
Here's an example for someone with 20 points
5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23
Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!
Are these numbers really accurate when you use all the numbers to calculate? I mean if there's 1 permit and 100 people apply, you have a 1% chance of drawing, but that's thrown out the window when one of these people has 18 points and another has 3 and another has 10 and so on. Are you using everyone's points and number of times they're in the pool and all the things? Because I don't think there is really a truly accurate way of calculating draw odds when all the variables are accurately portrayed.
Post by: baker5150 on June 17, 2022, 12:33:44 PM
The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better
Here's an example for someone with 20 points
5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23
Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!
Are these numbers really accurate when you use all the numbers to calculate? I mean if there's 1 permit and 100 people apply, you have a 1% chance of drawing, but that's thrown out the window when one of these people has 18 points and another has 3 and another has 10 and so on. Are you using everyone's points and number of times they're in the pool and all the things? Because I don't think there is really a truly accurate way of calculating draw odds when all the variables are accurately portrayed.
There is no way to accurately determine odds. Not when you consider the group aspect.
There is no way to determine how many groups will submit, and what their point totals will be when they do. You could only base it off of the prior years submissions.
You can only determine odds in respect to an individual submitting, and even then, it will be based on if everyone who can submit, will submit.
Post by: bobcat on June 17, 2022, 12:58:32 PM
If you have 1 point or 25 points your still only entered into the draw 1 time... they square your points and then random generate numbers for each point. Then your lowest number is entered into the draw. More years of points only helps you trying to get the lowest possible number for the draw.
Yes but that's the same as having 25 chances in the draw, because only the lowest number would matter anyway. I don't understand why people always say this.
A person with 5 points has 25 times more chance of drawing than a person with 1 point.
Post by: bobcat on June 17, 2022, 01:03:07 PM
Post by: X-Force on June 17, 2022, 01:06:51 PM
2022 points 29 unknown draw odds.
2021 points 28 .33% odds
2020 points 27 .38%
2019 points 26 .42%
2018 points 25 points only
2017 points 24 .48%
Couple things we can learn. 1) this permit is beyond oil, like a lot of our big 3 (moose, sheep, goat). 2) with max points your odds are still going down every year. 3) when you take points your not gaining anything, odds are so bad you should submit and figure it out if you get lucky enough to draw.
Post by: jackelope on June 17, 2022, 01:08:04 PM
I think a good prospective is Colockum September quality rifle permit
2022 points 29 unknown draw odds.
2021 points 28 .33% odds
2020 points 27 .38%
2019 points 26 .42%
2018 points 25 points only
2017 points 24 .48%
Couple things we can learn. 1) this permit is beyond oil, like a lot of our big 3 (moose, sheep, goat). 2) with max points your odds are still going down every year. 3) when you take points your not gaining anything, odds are so bad you should submit and figure it out if you get lucky enough to draw.
How do you know your odds?
Is it possible to know after the fact how many points everyone had that applied for a given unit?
Post by: D-Rock425 on June 17, 2022, 01:13:59 PM
he could be using a page like hunt that lists odds.I think a good prospective is Colockum September quality rifle permit
2022 points 29 unknown draw odds.
2021 points 28 .33% odds
2020 points 27 .38%
2019 points 26 .42%
2018 points 25 points only
2017 points 24 .48%
Couple things we can learn. 1) this permit is beyond oil, like a lot of our big 3 (moose, sheep, goat). 2) with max points your odds are still going down every year. 3) when you take points your not gaining anything, odds are so bad you should submit and figure it out if you get lucky enough to draw.
How do you know your odds?
Is it possible to know after the fact how many points everyone had that applied for a given unit?
Post by: X-Force on June 17, 2022, 01:15:26 PM
Post by: X-Force on June 17, 2022, 01:26:18 PM
Lincoln Peak
15 points in 2022 unknown odds
2021 14 points .19%
2020 13 points .20%
2019 12 points .18%
2018 11 points .20%
2017 10 points .17%
From 2017 with 100 points to 2022 with 225 points your odds are virtually the same.
Post by: kentrek on June 17, 2022, 02:08:59 PM
The odds of someone with 18 points, of drawing a tag over the next few years will be much greater then someone with 1 point over the same amount of years...when looking at indual year odds it's hard to see much of a difference but when you stretch those odds out over lets say 5 years things look alil better
Here's an example for someone with 20 points
5% odds with 20
6% odds with 21
7% odds with 22
8% odds with 23
Over that 4 year stretch that point holder could reasonably expect a 26% chance of drawing....thats still 73% chance of not drawing !!
Are these numbers really accurate when you use all the numbers to calculate? I mean if there's 1 permit and 100 people apply, you have a 1% chance of drawing, but that's thrown out the window when one of these people has 18 points and another has 3 and another has 10 and so on. Are you using everyone's points and number of times they're in the pool and all the things? Because I don't think there is really a truly accurate way of calculating draw odds when all the variables are accurately portrayed.
Sorry there was a few questions
There is no concrete way of prediction but you can have projected odds...just like in the stock market, but obviously alot of people project wrong there too...
Back when I was geeked on Washington I'd attempt to graph the trends in each unit...served zero purpose in the end but highlighted how the demand of each unit can rise and fall
Post by: X-Force on June 17, 2022, 02:20:07 PM
I drew with 9 points 3rd option.
2022 9 points unknown odds
2021 8 points 18%
2020 7 points 20%
2019 6 points 21%
2018 5 points 22%
2017 4 points 27%
Looks like a substantial decrease in odds from 2017-2021… I think they dropped the number of permits this year too.
Post by: jackelope on June 17, 2022, 02:52:20 PM
Second Deer Chilliwist
I drew with 9 points 3rd option.
2022 9 points unknown odds
2021 8 points 18%
2020 7 points 20%
2019 6 points 21%
2018 5 points 22%
2017 4 points 27%
Looks like a substantial decrease in odds from 2017-2021… I think they dropped the number of permits this year too.
I get that you're putting these numbers out there. My question is how you're coming up with them.
I'm pretty sure GoHunt or the like don't publish draw odds on 2nd doe tags here.
Post by: Pathfinder101 on June 17, 2022, 02:57:09 PM
... maybe next year.... :dunno:
Post by: jackelope on June 17, 2022, 04:57:01 PM
Second Deer Chilliwist
I drew with 9 points 3rd option.
2022 9 points unknown odds
2021 8 points 18%
2020 7 points 20%
2019 6 points 21%
2018 5 points 22%
2017 4 points 27%
Looks like a substantial decrease in odds from 2017-2021… I think they dropped the number of permits this year too.
I get that you're putting these numbers out there. My question is how you're coming up with them.
I'm pretty sure GoHunt or the like don't publish draw odds on 2nd doe tags here.
I'm wrong. They do publish those numbers. Wow. Who knew...
Post by: D-Rock425 on June 17, 2022, 05:39:43 PM
D-Rock
Lincoln Peak
15 points in 2022 unknown odds
2021 14 points .19%
2020 13 points .20%
2019 12 points .18%
2018 11 points .20%
2017 10 points .17%
From 2017 with 100 points to 2022 with 225 points your odds are virtually the same.
Post by: Stein on June 17, 2022, 07:58:54 PM
Post by: Romulus on June 18, 2022, 08:45:04 AM
Post by: dilleytech on June 18, 2022, 11:17:59 AM
Seems like we have this discussion every year but many people still dont get it.........Wouldnt matter what point system we had there are not enough tags for all the interested people to draw when everyone can be in for everything and no one sacrifices the opportunity to draw. Saw this coming a long time ago when all the cow hunters were bitching they did not get to hunt big bulls. At that time it was pretty easy for the meat hunters to draw tags as the guys who wanted to hunt bulls or have a chance at a trophy did not put in for cow tags.......What happened? now guys are bitching they dont draw their cow tag and why cant they draw a bull tag with 15 points? Because they are all in the draw and most are picking the better units....and now since they are already paying most of the fees guys who would not have considered hunting cows are in those draws....So now the state made a million categories and makes some small revenue off each app for each category but now the points are mostly worthless.........Kind of like your dollar today after flooding the economy with free money.....If the state gave you the chance to take all of your points and put them into one category would you do it? That would change things drastically for a few years but people who truly valued a certain tag would have a much better chance...Not likely to get better any time soon unless people would be willing to sacrifice opportunity to hunt each year for better quality hunts........Otherwise roll the dice and look at the average point total taken to draw the tag and think you are due........but your not because the point total used for that is just based on the 5 people who drew....not the 400 who did not.
I would take that even a little further. Not only can you not put in for cow AND bull tags but one species, one unit. You can put in for bull moose huckleberry or quality elk little naches or cow elk And that’s it but just one tag. How would that work? Personally having a higher chance at one good tag a year sounds a lot better then a 1% chance on a dozen tags every year. And that one draw can cost 50$ or whatever the state wants to still make some money.
Sounds good to me. Pick what interested you the most and put in.