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Big Game Hunting => Out Of State Hunting => Topic started by: bearpaw on April 01, 2023, 09:05:43 PM


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Title: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: bearpaw on April 01, 2023, 09:05:43 PM
I was researching something else and stumbled onto this interesting story:

Quote
If you have zero points you have a .004% chance of drawing a tag. If you have max points (16) you have a 2% chance at drawing. Yikes! 16 years worth of buying points all for 1.5% better odds than someone with zero points.

full story: https://blog.eastmans.com/the-most-coveted-deer-permit-in-montana-that-you-will-never-draw/

Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: kentrek on April 01, 2023, 10:02:56 PM
The premiums..where points go to die

I think one could argue in states that don't have a preference for longterm applicants to go short term on the draw strategy
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: huntnphool on April 01, 2023, 11:17:53 PM
 There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: Dan-o on April 01, 2023, 11:23:20 PM
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

Where?

Feel fee to PM me.   :chuckle:
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: huntnphool on April 01, 2023, 11:26:03 PM
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

Where?

Feel fee to PM me.   :chuckle:

 :chuckle:
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: bearpaw on April 01, 2023, 11:35:09 PM
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

That's true, but not as many of them as in draw areas.
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: huntnphool on April 01, 2023, 11:38:37 PM
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

That's true, but not as many of them as in draw areas.

 Agreed, but if your odds are .004% to draw the permit, does it really matter? :chuckle:
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: bearpaw on April 02, 2023, 07:09:42 AM
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

That's true, but not as many of them as in draw areas.

 Agreed, but if your odds are .004% to draw the permit, does it really matter? :chuckle:

Certainly not regarding that unit and many others where the trophy potential isn't really all that much greater.
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: Fidelk on April 02, 2023, 08:33:46 AM
Same as a lottery. Hope that you win, just don't expect it.
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: Magnum_Willys on April 02, 2023, 08:40:40 AM
Technically its 37,500% better odds but still 1 out of 50 chance.
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: bearpaw on April 02, 2023, 09:16:04 AM
If you can afford to buy 160 acres in that unit you can qualify for one of the landowner tags, small price to pay....
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: actionshooter on April 02, 2023, 09:24:11 AM
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

That's true, but not as many of them as in draw areas.

 Agreed, but if your odds are .004% to draw the permit, does it really matter? :chuckle:

It does if you are putting in Washington... LOL  :chuckle:
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: huntnphool on April 02, 2023, 05:14:06 PM
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

That's true, but not as many of them as in draw areas.

 Agreed, but if your odds are .004% to draw the permit, does it really matter? :chuckle:

It does if you are putting in Washington... LOL  :chuckle:

 :chuckle:
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: 444Marlin on April 02, 2023, 08:35:48 PM
I'm too old and late to the party get in the points game for a lot of hunts.  And laws are changing each year where non-residents allocations are getting worse.  It's probably best to enjoy those general season hunts while I can, and save up for outfitted hunt with the money I'd put towards building points.
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: Onewhohikes on April 02, 2023, 09:18:20 PM
I must admit I have applied for that tag on several occasions
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: HUNTINCOUPLE on April 02, 2023, 09:52:05 PM
Can't beat em join em. 160 acres and your set...........
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: Dan-o on April 02, 2023, 10:05:37 PM
So what does 160 acres in this area cost?
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: 300rum on April 03, 2023, 06:29:09 AM
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: Dan-o on April 03, 2023, 06:49:49 AM
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?

I'll bite. 

What show?
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: boneaddict on April 03, 2023, 07:51:53 AM
I didn’t click the link, but I’m going to guess 270.   I’ve thought about going there to photograph.
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: nwmein199 on April 03, 2023, 08:04:26 AM
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?

I'll bite. 

What show?

Yellowstone
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: nwmein199 on April 03, 2023, 08:05:31 AM
I didn’t click the link, but I’m going to guess 270.   I’ve thought about going there to photograph.

I was elk hunting there in September and saw several B&C bucks it was incredible. Sheep, bears, moose, elk, deer it was a fun area
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: Dan-o on April 03, 2023, 08:31:03 AM
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?

I'll bite. 

What show?

Yellowstone

Thanks.
I should have known.
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on April 03, 2023, 08:45:52 AM
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?

I'll bite. 

What show?

Yellowstone
It’s not even close to where Yellowstone is set


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: nwmein199 on April 03, 2023, 09:03:24 AM
Before or after the television show?

So what does 160 acres in this area cost?

I'll bite. 

What show?

Yellowstone
It’s not even close to where Yellowstone is set


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The ranch they shoot at for the show is just south of Darby called Chief Joseph Ranch. They film all over that area. Half of Darby is in unit 270, other half if unit 240. That is why there is a police car in front of the ranch. So many people stop to take pictures at the "Yellowstone Ranch" that it causes traffic issues
https://www.google.com/maps/@46.0018984,-114.1666212,3a,72.2y,283.74h,82.11t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sjI3d3LYxToM6CFr_SHDbMQ!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DjI3d3LYxToM6CFr_SHDbMQ%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D193.86969%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: bearpaw on April 03, 2023, 09:27:56 AM
Its amazing how busy that highway in the valley is anymore!
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: M_ray on April 03, 2023, 01:28:20 PM
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

200”ers too I hear  ;)
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: snake on April 03, 2023, 04:21:40 PM
about the same odds or better than most Washington quality deer and elk hunts, and im not being sarcastic.
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: vandeman17 on April 03, 2023, 04:28:27 PM
about the same odds or better than most Washington quality deer and elk hunts, and im not being sarcastic.

 :yeah:  .004% doesn't sound too bad
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: CarbonHunter on April 03, 2023, 05:31:38 PM
The best part about this permit is that everyone who applies for it as first choice has officially blown all chances of drawing another permit. Meaning if you simply choose another permit as your first choice you have much better chances of drawing than any quality tag in Washington.

Montana only uses the point system on first choices.
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: huntnphool on April 03, 2023, 10:38:30 PM
There are 180 bucks in general hunt areas! :twocents:

200”ers too I hear  ;)

Shhhhh :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: idaho guy on April 04, 2023, 05:34:46 AM
about the same odds or better than most Washington quality deer and elk hunts, and im not being sarcastic.

 :yeah:  .004% doesn't sound too bad



  So you’re telling me there’s a chance? I have put in for this unit a couple times. In Montana there is not a lot of good limited deer units besides this one. so I normally just pass on the le units for deer and just apply for elk limited entry
Title: Re: Permit in Montana that You Will Never Draw .004% chance
Post by: Stein on April 04, 2023, 08:51:20 AM
I quit applying for special draws in MT several years ago.  The draw odds are horrible and if you draw the general you have already drawn both a Quality and Multi-Season using WA lingo.
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