Post by: time2hunt on May 26, 2023, 03:47:02 PM
Deer- 8112061
Elk- 6807130
Antelope- 5277380
Sheep- 3718206
Goat- 8886905
Prem Deer- 7453495
Prem Elk- 3669613
Prem Antelope- 4158251
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Post by: andrew_in_idaho on May 26, 2023, 04:04:57 PM
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Post by: Sneaky Squirrel on May 26, 2023, 04:21:42 PM
Post by: trophyhunt on May 26, 2023, 05:22:27 PM
Post by: Farmer72 on May 26, 2023, 05:42:56 PM
Post by: Ricochet on May 26, 2023, 05:47:46 PM
It took forever to figure out how to find my number for spring bear, will they just send me an email if I drew?
No, you're on your own to find out.
Post by: Crunchy on May 26, 2023, 05:49:57 PM
Post by: time2hunt on May 26, 2023, 05:54:11 PM
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Post by: Deadeyety on May 26, 2023, 06:05:54 PM
Post by: kselkhunter on May 26, 2023, 06:54:49 PM
Please explain how to find such a number. I see my app number but no seed number. might be looking in the wrong spot.
The seed numbers are in the first post of this thread
Post by: kselkhunter on May 26, 2023, 06:55:24 PM
Post by: andrew_in_idaho on May 26, 2023, 07:00:00 PM
You want to be higher than the seed # but with the limited NR Tags, you have to be fairly close to the #.I managed to get below the seed # in every single category
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Post by: andrew_in_idaho on May 26, 2023, 07:01:10 PM
And you want your app number and seed number to be close togetherPlease explain how to find such a number. I see my app number but no seed number. might be looking in the wrong spot.
The seed numbers are in the first post of this thread
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Post by: Farmer72 on May 26, 2023, 07:04:44 PM
And you want your app number and seed number to be close togetherPlease explain how to find such a number. I see my app number but no seed number. might be looking in the wrong spot.
The seed numbers are in the first post of this thread
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But not below the seed#
Post by: trophyhunt on May 26, 2023, 09:13:38 PM
Post by: Crunchy on May 26, 2023, 09:15:04 PM
And you want your app number and seed number to be close togetherPlease explain how to find such a number. I see my app number but no seed number. might be looking in the wrong spot.
The seed numbers are in the first post of this thread
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802XXXX for me so maybe I will get lucky this year.
Post by: trophyhunt on May 26, 2023, 09:20:58 PM
Post by: mp.hunter on May 26, 2023, 09:25:10 PM
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Post by: Ricochet on May 26, 2023, 09:38:55 PM
For those who are close, I was 18,000 above the seed number for premium elk last year and did NOT get a tag
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The premium tags are such a crap shoot. Some units will have a couple hundred applications, some several thousand. I missed premium deer by 9784286, I'm probably the very last name on the list. :bash:
Post by: Bone collector 13 on May 27, 2023, 10:45:35 AM
The results aren’t even out till mid June? WthJune 12th
Post by: ShaneTyTrey on June 03, 2023, 05:59:27 PM
Post by: robescc on June 06, 2023, 10:40:01 PM
Post by: stew pidasso on June 07, 2023, 09:11:30 AM
Post by: Sneaky Squirrel on June 07, 2023, 09:29:14 AM
Post by: stew pidasso on June 07, 2023, 09:58:48 AM
If you are certain you are 100%, app #'s don't mean much. Your # could be the furthers away and you would still get a tag if you have enough points.Hope you are right. I seem to recall the same thing last year with deer and still drew.
Post by: Ricochet on June 07, 2023, 10:46:16 AM
Being "below the seed number" isn't always a bad thing, it depends on where the seed number is. When they determine who draws, they start at the seed number and go up, using the pool at the highest point level. If they get to 9,999,999 and still have tags available, they drop down to 0,000,000 and start up again. Use this years buck deer seed number for the example, 8112061. If your application number is 0112061, you are, in effect, 2,000,000 over the seed number. Being "under" doesn't automatically disqualify you from have a good number. In this example, you are 20% over, so if you go to http://oregontags.com/ and Ron estimates your chance of successfully drawing, at your point level, at 30%, it's looking good. There's no guarantee since tag numbers or application numbers can vary widely from year to year but using that site I've been able to accurately predict drawing two tags I only had a 3% chance at.
Post by: time2hunt on June 07, 2023, 11:24:33 AM
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Post by: trophyhunt on June 07, 2023, 12:15:11 PM
Your making my head spin just been easier if they would post results lol:yeah: agree, these seed numbers are just stupid. I'll wait for the email or true results.
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Post by: Ricochet on June 07, 2023, 12:40:29 PM
Your making my head spin just been easier if they would post results lol:yeah: agree, these seed numbers are just stupid. I'll wait for the email or true results.
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It's just a game we impatient ones play. I like knowing ASAP, then I can move on to being disappointed by something else. :chuckle: But I know some people don't realize how it works, just thought an explanation might help.
Post by: MtnMuley on June 07, 2023, 10:07:41 PM
Post by: Ricochet on June 12, 2023, 12:52:11 PM
Seed numbers are only for the random tags where points aren't involved. The only ones I pay attention to are the premiums, sheep, and goat. I will draw elk this year off of my points and my seed number isn't within 700,000. I know of a premium tag drawn at 68,000. I was under 10,000 2 years ago on a premium deer tag and struck out.It's also fairly accurate to determine your chances if you are at a point level where some but not all applicants are in the 75% pool. If Ron Wold (http://oregontags.com/)says you have a 50% chance then you'd better be within 5,000,000 over the seed. I've drawn a couple tags where, at my point level, (25% pool), I had a 3% chance. My application numbers were less than 300,000 over the seed, so I drew. When you're talking about a single tag, like the premium tags, knowing the numbers doesn't tell you much because you could miss the seed by two and get beat by someone who hit it exactly or was one over. Pure outhouse luck, paraphrasing my Dad. :chuckle:
Post by: MtnMuley on June 12, 2023, 08:33:35 PM
Seed numbers are only for the random tags where points aren't involved. The only ones I pay attention to are the premiums, sheep, and goat. I will draw elk this year off of my points and my seed number isn't within 700,000. I know of a premium tag drawn at 68,000. I was under 10,000 2 years ago on a premium deer tag and struck out.It's also fairly accurate to determine your chances if you are at a point level where some but not all applicants are in the 75% pool. If Ron Wold (http://oregontags.com/)says you have a 50% chance then you'd better be within 5,000,000 over the seed. I've drawn a couple tags where, at my point level, (25% pool), I had a 3% chance. My application numbers were less than 300,000 over the seed, so I drew. When you're talking about a single tag, like the premium tags, knowing the numbers doesn't tell you much because you could miss the seed by two and get beat by someone who hit it exactly or was one over. Pure outhouse luck, paraphrasing my Dad. :chuckle:
Ha, that's true. If you're a resident you can can determine a little.from the seed numbers on deer, elk and lope outside of the 25%, but with a nonresident having no 25%, it just doesn't work the way I see it.
Post by: Ricochet on June 12, 2023, 08:53:11 PM
Seed numbers are only for the random tags where points aren't involved. The only ones I pay attention to are the premiums, sheep, and goat. I will draw elk this year off of my points and my seed number isn't within 700,000. I know of a premium tag drawn at 68,000. I was under 10,000 2 years ago on a premium deer tag and struck out.It's also fairly accurate to determine your chances if you are at a point level where some but not all applicants are in the 75% pool. If Ron Wold (http://oregontags.com/)says you have a 50% chance then you'd better be within 5,000,000 over the seed. I've drawn a couple tags where, at my point level, (25% pool), I had a 3% chance. My application numbers were less than 300,000 over the seed, so I drew. When you're talking about a single tag, like the premium tags, knowing the numbers doesn't tell you much because you could miss the seed by two and get beat by someone who hit it exactly or was one over. Pure outhouse luck, paraphrasing my Dad. :chuckle:
Ha, that's true. If you're a resident you can can determine a little.from the seed numbers on deer, elk and lope outside of the 25%, but with a nonresident having no 25%, it just doesn't work the way I see it.
Right. Bumping into the non-resident tag limit ends every non-resident's chances at that point. So knowing the seed numbers doesn't do you a lot of good unless you're at the top of the point race. As a resident, I can compare my app number to the seed number and get a pretty accurate idea if I drew. As a non-resident you are engaged in a total crap-shoot.