Post by: Doublelunger on May 28, 2024, 04:15:17 PM
Post by: youngbuckslayer on May 28, 2024, 04:45:27 PM
Post by: Doublelunger on May 28, 2024, 05:32:32 PM
Always been confused on that how exactly do you figure it out
Look at your application #. The closer to the seed number the better. You can look at how many applicants there were last year and figure out roughly what the distribution is then multiply that by the number of tags. If you app number is within that range you have a good shot. Example: say you apply for a tag that had 700 applicants last year and they give away 50 tags then I'd do this. 10,000,000 possible app numbers divided by 700 applicants equals a distribution of 14,285 between applicants. Multiply that by the 50 tags given out and it equals 714,285. So if the seed number for that series was 3,000,000 then your app # would need to be between 3,000,000 and 3,714,285. This assumes a perfectly even distribution which never happens.It gets even more confusing if you don't have max points. There's an awesome website that breaks it down by points.
https://oregontags.com/?fbclid=IwAR0aRnoqHWgptgJyhCD4eyerG61Vr_PzFK_E2wbsHdxsrCdLNE-e99y9iqU
Another example. I applied for E Whitehorse buck with 0 points. According to this resource zero points has a 32% chance of drawing. My app # is 6,639,530. The seed # is 3,633,092. That's a difference of 3,006,438. So..3,006,438/10,000,000= %30. So basically my app number puts me in the top 30% so if the top 32% draw line predicted then I should get it.
I suck at explaining. Are you thoroughly confused?
Post by: trophyhunt on May 28, 2024, 05:41:42 PM
Post by: Doublelunger on May 28, 2024, 06:03:26 PM
Post by: mp.hunter on May 28, 2024, 06:58:51 PM
I can’t remember
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Post by: Doublelunger on May 28, 2024, 07:09:43 PM
Do you want your app # to be below the seed #?
I can’t remember
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You want your app # to be above the seed#. The closer the better.
Post by: mp.hunter on May 28, 2024, 07:10:16 PM
ThanksDo you want your app # to be below the seed #?
I can’t remember
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You want your app # to be above the seed#. The closer the better.
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Post by: Crunchy on May 28, 2024, 07:19:46 PM
Post by: trophyhunt on May 28, 2024, 07:30:10 PM
Post by: ShaneTyTrey on May 28, 2024, 07:33:27 PM
Post by: trophyhunt on May 28, 2024, 07:41:33 PM
Post by: pickardjw on May 28, 2024, 08:11:29 PM
2023 First Choice Applicants = 629
9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898
15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230
Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092
3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322
My App # = 5,666,941
So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.
Post by: Crunchy on May 28, 2024, 08:37:58 PM
Post by: Doublelunger on May 28, 2024, 09:10:07 PM
mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk. IM SCREWED
Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?
Post by: Crunchy on May 28, 2024, 09:14:23 PM
mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk. IM SCREWED
Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?
Does it matter if only 5% of tags go to non-res for all 200 series
Post by: millerwheeler on May 28, 2024, 09:21:18 PM
Post by: Doublelunger on May 28, 2024, 09:32:40 PM
Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.
2023 First Choice Applicants = 629
9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898
15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230
Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092
3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322
My App # = 5,666,941
So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.
Well it looks like chesnimus gives 22 tags to non residents. Last year there were 30 non res applicants. You have to search for the points summary reports to get that number. Its not in the regs.
https://myodfw.com/articles/point-summary-reports
But 'd go: 10,000,000÷30=333,333×22=7,333,333, add that to the seed number(3,633,092) and roll it over and you get 0,926,425. So ya if your app number is between 3,633,092 and 0,926,425 then you should be good to go.
Post by: Doublelunger on May 28, 2024, 09:38:58 PM
mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk. IM SCREWED
Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?
Does it matter if only 5% of tags go to non-res for all 200 series
Depends on what you put in for. Still some 200 series hunts that are 100% for non res.
Post by: Ricochet on May 28, 2024, 09:55:36 PM
Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973. So you’re saying I have a chance!!! 🤣🤣
I let Ron Wold do the math at https://oregontags.com/ If he says you have, for example, a 10% chance of drawing at your point level then you need to be 10% or less above the seed number, which is less than 1,000,000 over the number. In your case, Trophyhunt you are 17.4% over the seed number. Check and see what Ron says your chances are. It's worked for me every time and no calculator needed. Probably less accurate for non-residents because it doesn't take much of a swing in application numbers to skew the results but as a resident, it's been spot on for me.
Post by: trophyhunt on May 28, 2024, 10:20:08 PM
thanks, still confusing as heck though.Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973. So you’re saying I have a chance!!! 🤣🤣
I let Ron Wold do the math at https://oregontags.com/ If he says you have, for example, a 10% chance of drawing at your point level then you need to be 10% or less above the seed number, which is less than 1,000,000 over the number. In your case, Trophyhunt you are 17.4% over the seed number. Check and see what Ron says your chances are. It's worked for me every time and no calculator needed. Probably less accurate for non-residents because it doesn't take much of a swing in application numbers to skew the results but as a resident, it's been spot on for me.
Post by: pickardjw on May 29, 2024, 05:53:43 AM
Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.
2023 First Choice Applicants = 629
9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898
15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230
Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092
3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322
My App # = 5,666,941
So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.
Well it looks like chesnimus gives 22 tags to non residents. Last year there were 30 non res applicants. You have to search for the points summary reports to get that number. Its not in the regs.
https://myodfw.com/articles/point-summary-reports
But 'd go: 10,000,000÷30=333,333×22=7,333,333, add that to the seed number(3,633,092) and roll it over and you get 0,926,425. So ya if your app number is between 3,633,092 and 0,926,425 then you should be good to go.
Ahh, that’s how you do non-res. Gotcha.
Post by: trophyhunt on May 29, 2024, 08:37:04 AM
Post by: bigfish51 on May 29, 2024, 09:45:33 AM
Post by: Ricochet on May 29, 2024, 11:03:47 AM
Post by: Elkfever on May 29, 2024, 10:35:38 PM
Post by: mp.hunter on May 30, 2024, 06:55:45 AM
18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek. Do I have a chance?I hope you get it, I was in the same boat 2 years ago only 18,000 and change and I did not get I was very confused
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Post by: Elkfever on May 30, 2024, 07:35:33 AM
Post by: Doublelunger on May 31, 2024, 06:53:20 AM
18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek. Do I have a chance? 😬
300 people put in for pine creek premium last year. Assuming an even distribution that's 33,333 between applicants. So if you were to also assume the same number of applicants this year that would mean you have a very realistic chance.
Post by: CNELK on May 31, 2024, 07:44:40 AM
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Post by: Browndawg on June 03, 2024, 04:57:30 PM
Post by: redi on June 06, 2024, 01:26:39 PM
Post by: go4steelhd on June 06, 2024, 02:17:59 PM
When will the results post?
Most Likely the 12th