Post by: KDB on March 22, 2025, 09:43:56 AM
Post by: jackelope on March 22, 2025, 09:50:34 AM
Post by: Wingin it on March 22, 2025, 11:28:18 AM
Post by: Dan-o on March 22, 2025, 11:40:51 AM
I don’t believe there is a max on points in Washington. When they changed the draw system however many points you had at the time were awarded across all categories. So if you had 5 points when they switched you were given 5 points for each new drawing category. Hard to say how many points some folks may have had at that time.
I'm pretty sure Jackelope is right, and everyone started at 0 in 1996.
The only wrinkle I know of is that you can get awarded points for certain actions like turning in a poacher, so in that case you'd have more than what we'd commonly think of as Max Points.
Post by: jackelope on March 22, 2025, 11:58:46 AM
Post by: OltHunter on March 22, 2025, 12:14:03 PM
WDFW also hasn't posted any worth while draw odds/statistics in years, which seems strange to me, so technically we can't even see what max points is anymore.
With no data for so long, the validity of their draw is very questionable especially after last years debacle.
Post by: Dan-o on March 22, 2025, 12:41:44 PM
What I’m saying is the highest number of points anyone could have with the potential for poacher points and any other rewarded points excluded would be 28 at this point. Once you put in this year will put it at 29 if you’ve put in every year and haven’t drawn anything in that category.
:yeah:
There was a time 2o+ years ago when you felt good about drawing a nice buck or bull tag with 7-8 points.
Now.................... :'(
Post by: Stein on March 22, 2025, 01:44:05 PM
Max points also don't mean much in WA. Too many points overall, too many applicants, and not enough tags.
WDFW also hasn't posted any worth while draw odds/statistics in years, which seems strange to me, so technically we can't even see what max points is anymore.
With no data for so long, the validity of their draw is very questionable especially after last years debacle.
They don't post odds because people would stop applying if they find out with max points they have a 3% chance of drawing. They would also get angry customers if they found out some people have much more than max. Ignorance is bliss and blissful people keep buying.
It's not just WA, no state is going to go out of their way to point out how low the odd are.
Post by: CarbonHunter on March 22, 2025, 02:47:06 PM
What I’m saying is the highest number of points anyone could have with the potential for poacher points and any other rewarded points excluded would be 28 at this point. Once you put in this year will put it at 29 if you’ve put in every year and haven’t drawn anything in that category.
:yeah:
There was a time 2o+ years ago when you felt good about drawing a nice buck or bull tag with 7-8 points.
Now.................... :'(
Those were the good old days when there was 10x as many permits given out and about 1/3-1/2 the number of people applying for the permit. If they went back to one category per species and limited you to 2 choices the odds would get better as well.
Post by: trophyhunt on March 22, 2025, 05:31:27 PM
Post by: jackelope on March 22, 2025, 05:43:38 PM
I have 29 points as of now, no poacher points, bull and quality elk. Put in every yearI guess that would be right, because you have to count 1996 as 1, not 0. So you’ll apply this year with 30 then, right?
(It’s hard to say that out loud and not get frustrated for you)
Post by: Dan-o on March 22, 2025, 05:58:20 PM
I have 29 points as of now, no poacher points, bull and quality elk. Put in every year
Yep, that sucks.
I made the decision to go for lesser quality "Quality" tags for deer and elk just so I can hunt once in a great while.
Post by: Ridgerunner on March 22, 2025, 06:24:11 PM
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Post by: trophyhunt on March 22, 2025, 07:35:21 PM
exactly and yes, it’s frustrating. But I’m getting used to it now, used to put me in a pretty good depression after the results. Now, the past 4-5 years, I just expect not to draw. You’d think the “bull” catagory would be a givenI have 29 points as of now, no poacher points, bull and quality elk. Put in every yearI guess that would be right, because you have to count 1996 as 1, not 0. So you’ll apply this year with 30 then, right?
(It’s hard to say that out loud and not get frustrated for you)
Post by: hughjorgan on March 22, 2025, 07:58:13 PM
We have the same system as Nevada and at least they explain how it works compared to WDFW.
https://www.ndow.org/blog/bonus-point-program/
Bonus points are squared by species category to determine how many random numbers from 1 to 99 million will be drawn from the random number generator. The lowest of the random numbers for each species category will be assigned as the “draw” number for that species category application. For example, if an applicant has 10 bonus points for antlered elk, you square 10 to get 100 and add 1 (applicant with zero bonus points is assigned 1 random number) for a total of 101 random numbers with the lowest being the draw number assigned to the antlered elk application
Odds aren’t good when the random numbers generated is from a scale of 1 to 99 million.
Post by: Threewolves on March 22, 2025, 08:58:32 PM
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Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 22, 2025, 09:11:44 PM
Post by: trophyhunt on March 23, 2025, 07:33:58 AM
Too many people don’t understand how points work in our system resulting in unrealistic expectations of drawing a tag because they have ’X’ amount of points.Ive been a witness a couple times and my biggest complaint was the amount of random numbers they draw from. The people that run the draw don’t think it matters, but in my pea brain it does. 1-to infinity compared to 1- to the total amount of names in the hat, makes more sense to me.
We have the same system as Nevada and at least they explain how it works compared to WDFW.
https://www.ndow.org/blog/bonus-point-program/
Bonus points are squared by species category to determine how many random numbers from 1 to 99 million will be drawn from the random number generator. The lowest of the random numbers for each species category will be assigned as the “draw” number for that species category application. For example, if an applicant has 10 bonus points for antlered elk, you square 10 to get 100 and add 1 (applicant with zero bonus points is assigned 1 random number) for a total of 101 random numbers with the lowest being the draw number assigned to the antlered elk application
Odds aren’t good when the random numbers generated is from a scale of 1 to 99 million.
Post by: CarbonHunter on March 23, 2025, 08:12:53 AM
Too many people don’t understand how points work in our system resulting in unrealistic expectations of drawing a tag because they have ’X’ amount of points.Ive been a witness a couple times and my biggest complaint was the amount of random numbers they draw from. The people that run the draw don’t think it matters, but in my pea brain it does. 1-to infinity compared to 1- to the total amount of names in the hat, makes more sense to me.
We have the same system as Nevada and at least they explain how it works compared to WDFW.
https://www.ndow.org/blog/bonus-point-program/
Bonus points are squared by species category to determine how many random numbers from 1 to 99 million will be drawn from the random number generator. The lowest of the random numbers for each species category will be assigned as the “draw” number for that species category application. For example, if an applicant has 10 bonus points for antlered elk, you square 10 to get 100 and add 1 (applicant with zero bonus points is assigned 1 random number) for a total of 101 random numbers with the lowest being the draw number assigned to the antlered elk application
Odds aren’t good when the random numbers generated is from a scale of 1 to 99 million.
I never really understood the need for the random number assignment. Essentially you can be drawn first and receive a random number of 10 million as I understand it. Why do t they just assign sequential numbers and remove the duplicates after all the people in the draw get a number?
Post by: link on March 23, 2025, 08:16:02 AM
Post by: trophyhunt on March 23, 2025, 09:29:49 AM
I didn't realize that was the number they used. 1-99M. That dilutes someones points, even squared points, astronomically. That's the difference between a preference point and a near worthless bonus point I guess.exactly, it totally waters down the numbers! I never heard about the 1-99million, I was always told 1 to infinity. I’d love to see a program that could do the numbers and see if odds approve if they didn’t do 1 to infinity.
Post by: huntnnw on March 23, 2025, 10:22:30 PM
exactly and yes, it’s frustrating. But I’m getting used to it now, used to put me in a pretty good depression after the results. Now, the past 4-5 years, I just expect not to draw. You’d think the “bull” catagory would be a givenI have 29 points as of now, no poacher points, bull and quality elk. Put in every yearI guess that would be right, because you have to count 1996 as 1, not 0. So you’ll apply this year with 30 then, right?
(It’s hard to say that out loud and not get frustrated for you)
the grande ronde "bull tag" is harder to draw then a quality tag.. good ole wdfw. There should be no " bull" and "quality" categories . It should be 1 category for bull elk nobody is forcing people to apply for the units they choose
Post by: trophyhunt on March 24, 2025, 05:50:02 AM
I agree that there should only be ONE category for bull elk, I haven't put in for the blues in years. Would have loved to drawn in the good ole days though.exactly and yes, it’s frustrating. But I’m getting used to it now, used to put me in a pretty good depression after the results. Now, the past 4-5 years, I just expect not to draw. You’d think the “bull” catagory would be a givenI have 29 points as of now, no poacher points, bull and quality elk. Put in every yearI guess that would be right, because you have to count 1996 as 1, not 0. So you’ll apply this year with 30 then, right?
(It’s hard to say that out loud and not get frustrated for you)
the grande ronde "bull tag" is harder to draw then a quality tag.. good ole wdfw. There should be no " bull" and "quality" categories . It should be 1 category for bull elk nobody is forcing people to apply for the units they choose
Post by: MeepDog on March 24, 2025, 07:59:46 AM
Personally as a humble peon with under 10 points, I think if you want to draw just put in for a worse tag while you're still young. Thats what these max pointers should have been doing for the past 20 years. :twocents: lower expectations to the floor and you're more likely to achieve your goals.
Post by: trophyhunt on March 24, 2025, 08:59:31 AM
Post by: Dan-o on March 24, 2025, 09:02:31 AM
I didn’t put in for the easier draws because I wasn’t wanting to hunt 240” 6 points with hoof rot, and when you start getting points built up, it’s a trap to thinking you will draw the next year! Lol.
It really is a trap.
You feel invested like you're making progress, when points creep can make you go backwards.
Post by: CarbonHunter on March 24, 2025, 11:12:59 AM
I agree that there should only be ONE category for bull elk, I haven't put in for the blues in years. Would have loved to drawn in the good ole days though.exactly and yes, it’s frustrating. But I’m getting used to it now, used to put me in a pretty good depression after the results. Now, the past 4-5 years, I just expect not to draw. You’d think the “bull” catagory would be a givenI have 29 points as of now, no poacher points, bull and quality elk. Put in every yearI guess that would be right, because you have to count 1996 as 1, not 0. So you’ll apply this year with 30 then, right?
(It’s hard to say that out loud and not get frustrated for you)
the grande ronde "bull tag" is harder to draw then a quality tag.. good ole wdfw. There should be no " bull" and "quality" categories . It should be 1 category for bull elk nobody is forcing people to apply for the units they choose
There should be one category for ELK. That’s how you will really see tags get issued. Ya there will still be some hunts that are hard to draw but if you are good with a cow tag it should be much easier to draw.
Post by: kentrek on March 24, 2025, 12:43:42 PM
As your odds get skewed even a weighted point system ressembles a random draw.. its simply a bell curve of years in the system and the shape of that curve...the only system that improves over all odds is one that restricts the number of applicants like idaho with there pick either sheep or deer
Ps....pretty sure this is my year for a sheep tag :chuckle:
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 24, 2025, 01:18:06 PM
I think with more education people would stop blaming points, treat washington sytem as a random draw and you will live a much happier life....getting upset over not drawing a tag with 1 in 100 year odds is pretty dumb:yeah: spot on.
As your odds get skewed even a weighted point system ressembles a random draw.. its simply a bell curve of years in the system and the shape of that curve...the only system that improves over all odds is one that restricts the number of applicants like idaho with there pick either sheep or deer
Ps....pretty sure this is my year for a sheep tag :chuckle:
Post by: Ridgerunner on March 24, 2025, 01:25:32 PM
If they ever went Mule deer to a draw only and were giving out 600 or 800 tags per unit, you would see that those with higher points would typically be the ones drawing the tags which is what they sold us on when it was implemented.
Post by: andersonjk4 on March 24, 2025, 01:47:18 PM
Also, I am not a statistician, but I don't think the range of numbers assigned (0-99 million) makes a difference in odds. For example if there were only two applications and each were assigned a number between 0 and 99,000,000 the odds of having the lower number would be 50/50, of the range was 0-100.... odds = 50/50, of the range is 0-10... odds = 50/50... you get where I'm going.
Post by: vandeman17 on March 24, 2025, 01:48:58 PM
Post by: kentrek on March 24, 2025, 03:27:44 PM
There's only one reason that it essentially becomes a random draw, that's because the number of permits offered is so low that it doesn't allow the squaring of the points to really have the effect they sold us. Back when the state used to provide draw data, if you looked at the palouse buck tag and who was drawing that tag it was operating as it was intended. Only problem was that tag had like 600 permits. It was the only tag in the state with really enough points to allow those with higher point totals better odds. Since so many of our hunts have such few permits it really does turn into a random draw scenario.
If they ever went Mule deer to a draw only and were giving out 600 or 800 tags per unit, you would see that those with higher points would typically be the ones drawing the tags which is what they sold us on when it was implemented.
:yeah: tag #s are huge...WHEN washington goes to a draw only for generals the current system will be more usefull
Post by: Stein on March 24, 2025, 05:34:42 PM
Let a guy dump all his deer points into one catergory for one species. Its still only one tag given out but would clear out a ton of points. Not a quick fix but could help slow point creep, at least I think... maybe... :o
That is my wish, limit the entries to one per species for elk and deer and one entry total for moose, sheep, goat combined. WDFW would have to jack up the prices to keep it revenue neutral.
The other drawback is you don't get the rush of being able to apply for everything under the sun which is attractive to more people than required to keep the system the way it is. Many people like clicking all those buttons and dreaming of all the hunts they may draw.
I don't see WDFW making any substantial changes in the draw system other than more things will go to draw which generates more money.
Post by: Alan K on March 24, 2025, 06:45:32 PM
One easy thing to do though would be to NOT give people their points back if they draw multiple categories. That's the dice you roll. Now there is no reason to not apply for everything, further reducing everyone's odds.
Post by: The scout on March 24, 2025, 07:07:19 PM
Post by: trophyhunt on March 25, 2025, 06:57:25 AM
Post by: Ghost Hunter on March 25, 2025, 07:51:13 AM
Post by: CarbonHunter on March 25, 2025, 08:00:10 AM
And odds for anything reasonably good would change from 0.2% to 0.7%... No thanks, I'll take my lottery chance in every category.
One easy thing to do though would be to NOT give people their points back if they draw multiple categories. That's the dice you roll. Now there is no reason to not apply for everything, further reducing everyone's odds.
I do not think there was many people who were selective of what they applied for given the odds were so low for all categories. Giving the points back just means there is a handful of tags that get passed to the next person in line so tags don’t go to waste.
Post by: Romulus on March 27, 2025, 07:27:57 AM
Good luck!!! :dunno:
Post by: OutHouse on March 28, 2025, 02:16:06 PM
Can anyone enlighten me a little on this as to my area over here? Thanks! :hello:
Post by: Karl Blanchard on March 28, 2025, 02:29:55 PM
Sorry for my ignorance on this, but I want to start putting in for an archery bull tag during the rut in the units west of Yakima. Should I even bother? Sounds like it will never happen. But I can't win if I don't play. Like the lottery I guess!shot you a pm
Can anyone enlighten me a little on this as to my area over here? Thanks! :hello:
Post by: trophyhunt on March 28, 2025, 02:31:00 PM
Post by: Falcon on March 28, 2025, 04:54:24 PM
Guys draw with little points all the time.
If TH does not draw his elk tag this year, He’s gonna need a new therapist :chuckle:
Post by: CarbonHunter on March 28, 2025, 05:12:45 PM
Guys draw with little points all the time.
That’s because a majority of the applications are from people with few points. At the end of the day that majority of people end up with a lot of applications in the pool so it’s just a numbers game that some of them get drawn.
Two things would change the game without doing away with points: one application per species and everyone gets their first choice before they look at second choices. That is the way a lot of states do it. If you have a hard to draw hunt as your first choice you’re going to wait a while. If you have a doe or cow tag as choice 1 you will not wait very long to get drawn.
Post by: MADMAX on March 28, 2025, 05:38:51 PM
There’s always somebody that wants to play the system
Post by: CarbonHunter on March 28, 2025, 05:52:25 PM
I don’t know if it’s still happening but years ago, I heard some would put in their wife and kids as well to draw the best tags if possible whether or not the wife or kids hunted
There’s always somebody that wants to play the system
I heard stories of this as well. I have also heard those who do this typically shoot animals for their families every year as well. It’s just rumors to me as I don’t know anyone who personally does it but it does come from people who I know that engage with people who are less than respectable members of society.
Post by: jstone on April 01, 2025, 08:10:14 PM
Help me baby Jesus
Post by: trophyhunt on April 02, 2025, 06:16:19 AM
I think I'm broken, might take a team of therapist to fix me Bryan!!Guys draw with little points all the time.
If TH does not draw his elk tag this year, He’s gonna need a new therapist :chuckle:
Post by: ballpark on April 02, 2025, 06:27:11 AM
Does putting in as a Group increase your odds? Seems everytime we get drawn, its when we have put in as a group. :dunno:
Post by: trophyhunt on April 02, 2025, 06:59:21 AM
It depends I guess, the number of tags given out might effect that. But if you put in as a group and it lowers your points down enough to put you in the area where more people are drawn, maybe. A person that does the drawing told me to lower my points for a better chance, but I just don't see that.
Does putting in as a Group increase your odds? Seems everytime we get drawn, its when we have put in as a group. :dunno:
Post by: vandeman17 on April 02, 2025, 08:56:11 AM
Does putting in as a Group increase your odds? Seems everytime we get drawn, its when we have put in as a group. :dunno:
No it lowers your odds. If you put in for a group and your number is drawn but the number of tags left is less than your group number, you are tossed out. The way I see it is if I am applying with a group of 4 and there are 12 tags, I am realistically applying for a tag with 9 tags because the last 3 I have 0 chance of drawing.
Post by: Stein on April 02, 2025, 09:29:49 AM
It depends I guess, the number of tags given out might effect that. But if you put in as a group and it lowers your points down enough to put you in the area where more people are drawn, maybe. A person that does the drawing told me to lower my points for a better chance, but I just don't see that.
Does putting in as a Group increase your odds? Seems everytime we get drawn, its when we have put in as a group. :dunno:
I'm going out on a limb and guessing the person that told you that wasn't a math major.
Post by: trophyhunt on April 02, 2025, 09:48:04 AM
I know what they were seeing, more people in the lower points draw than people with a lot of points. But yeah, it doesn’t add up.It depends I guess, the number of tags given out might effect that. But if you put in as a group and it lowers your points down enough to put you in the area where more people are drawn, maybe. A person that does the drawing told me to lower my points for a better chance, but I just don't see that.
Does putting in as a Group increase your odds? Seems everytime we get drawn, its when we have put in as a group. :dunno:
I'm going out on a limb and guessing the person that told you that wasn't a math major.
Post by: Stein on April 02, 2025, 09:53:54 AM
It's like saying that more working class people win the lottery than millionaires so a millionaire should give away a bunch of loot to get better odds of winning.
Post by: Bob33 on April 02, 2025, 10:27:50 AM
Applying as a group averages the points of the applicants. If one applicant has one point and the other has three, the party is entered as one application with two points. I guess you could say it increases the odds of the applicant with one point, and decreases the odds of the applicant with three points.
Does putting in as a Group increase your odds? Seems everytime we get drawn, its when we have put in as a group. :dunno:
Be aware that a party application can only be awarded if there are enough remaining permits to fulfill the party. If a party application with two applicants is drawn and only one permit remains, the application is skipped. To be it another way, a party application for a hunt with one permit could never be awarded.
Post by: BEARHUNTER1 on April 08, 2025, 09:45:34 PM
God bless everyone and stay safe.
Put some meat on the ground!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Post by: CarbonHunter on April 08, 2025, 10:24:28 PM
30 quality bull points and 66 years old with my health going down hill I think I’m done. I’m the last of my camp and everyone else gave up. No drive or patience in the woods. I have killed a few elk between muzzle loading and archery.
God bless everyone and stay safe.
Put some meat on the ground!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I have seen a lot of camps age out of the game. It’s a sad fact of hunting and I have known multiple hunters die with many points in the pool.
Bearhunter1 I wish you the best in points chase retirement and I am sorry to hear that you never were able to get that golden ticket we all strive for.
Post by: BEARHUNTER1 on April 08, 2025, 10:26:03 PM
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Post by: Alan K on April 09, 2025, 05:12:43 AM
A person that does the drawing told me to lower my points for a better chance, but I just don't see that.
Probably the same person that thought putting average points drawn in the pamphlet was worthwhile! Unless they've been lying to us about how the math/process is done (after last year, maybe it's the case?) then that person clearly has no idea what they're talking about. Frankly, with so many people mathematically illiterate these days it wouldn't suprise me though.
Post by: trophyhunt on April 09, 2025, 07:38:11 AM
Loss of open units to permit only and most timber companies requiring a pass has also killed the traditional camps. I never knew how awesome our yearly elk camp truly was till we lost it. Bearhunter , I feel your pain, 30 points myself and only a few years old behind you!30 quality bull points and 66 years old with my health going down hill I think I’m done. I’m the last of my camp and everyone else gave up. No drive or patience in the woods. I have killed a few elk between muzzle loading and archery.
God bless everyone and stay safe.
Put some meat on the ground!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I have seen a lot of camps age out of the game. It’s a sad fact of hunting and I have known multiple hunters die with many points in the pool.
Bearhunter1 I wish you the best in points chase retirement and I am sorry to hear that you never were able to get that golden ticket we all strive for.