Post by: methowman on June 10, 2010, 11:13:33 AM
I have 8. Its been a long wait....... :o
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 11:18:26 AM
If so, I have I have 2. I drew Grayback in 2008.
Post by: methowman on June 10, 2010, 11:19:44 AM
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 11:24:49 AM
A person has to vote in order to see the results.
Post by: BLUEBULLS on June 10, 2010, 11:25:03 AM
I'm screwed for a while :bash:
Post by: benhuntin on June 10, 2010, 11:25:37 AM
Post by: carpsniperg2 on June 10, 2010, 11:27:23 AM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on June 10, 2010, 11:28:06 AM
Post by: methowman on June 10, 2010, 11:36:07 AM
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 11:38:39 AM
Post by: NRA4LIFE on June 10, 2010, 11:46:23 AM
Post by: goosewhacker on June 10, 2010, 11:48:23 AM
21 for elk.
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 11:48:30 AM
Sorry Bobcat, but you suck.
:chuckle: Don't worry, they screwed me over this year when they gave free points to everybody. I only got one "free" point in the deer categories and two "free" points in the elk categories.
Post by: CP on June 10, 2010, 11:48:53 AM
Post by: 180-GRAIN on June 10, 2010, 11:50:41 AM
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 11:51:51 AM
I have zero. That wasn't one of the options.
I didn't put zero as an option because if you applied this year, you have 1 point. Did you not apply for deer?
Post by: CP on June 10, 2010, 11:52:22 AM
Post by: buckhorn2 on June 10, 2010, 11:53:21 AM
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 11:54:18 AM
No, still have zero. I probably always will.
OK, well if you're not a "player" then we don't care about you. ;)
Post by: kirkl on June 10, 2010, 11:54:26 AM
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 11:58:20 AM
Adding in the point for this years draw i have 14.
Hopefully everyone is "adding" in this year's point, because you get the point when your application is submitted. That's why zero is not an option in the poll.
Post by: carpsniperg2 on June 10, 2010, 12:02:45 PM
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 12:12:07 PM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on June 10, 2010, 12:13:17 PM
Post by: benhuntin on June 10, 2010, 12:41:18 PM
Post by: Fish4Fun on June 10, 2010, 12:54:25 PM
Post by: Curly on June 10, 2010, 12:56:56 PM
I have 1 as I do most years, I have drawn an antlerless tag 7 out of the last 9 years on modern rifle :IBCOOL:
You'll likely have a hard time drawing a doe tag now with the new system.
Post by: Fish4Fun on June 10, 2010, 01:55:56 PM
Post by: Curly on June 10, 2010, 02:38:25 PM
Post by: highcountry on June 10, 2010, 03:38:11 PM
Post by: NRA4LIFE on June 10, 2010, 03:43:05 PM
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 03:44:47 PM
8 points, probally have 9 next year :(
If you had 8, and applied this year, you already have 9.
Post by: SuperDave on June 10, 2010, 05:58:02 PM
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 09:14:21 PM
Post by: winston2789 on June 10, 2010, 09:28:49 PM
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 09:31:14 PM
Post by: Bob33 on June 10, 2010, 09:33:56 PM
Hey Bobcat how do you know that everyone has been drawn and everyone has been putting in since '96? Not sure if I understand what your saying?I believe Bobcat is referring to those who have answered the poll question. There is no one with 15 points. To get 15 points would mean you've been applying since the beginning and never were drawn.
Post by: winston2789 on June 10, 2010, 09:34:38 PM
Post by: Curly on June 10, 2010, 09:37:04 PM
Post by: Wea300mag on June 10, 2010, 09:38:37 PM
Post by: buckhorn2 on June 10, 2010, 09:38:49 PM
Post by: bobcat on June 10, 2010, 09:41:46 PM
Post by: Bob33 on June 10, 2010, 09:43:51 PM
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
Post by: PacificNWhunter on June 10, 2010, 09:51:20 PM
Post by: Antlershed on June 10, 2010, 10:05:56 PM
Post by: huntergreg on June 10, 2010, 10:57:58 PM
Post by: buckreaper on June 10, 2010, 11:36:34 PM
Post by: methowman on June 11, 2010, 06:39:00 AM
Post by: bobcat on June 11, 2010, 06:41:50 AM
Post by: Bob33 on June 11, 2010, 06:48:39 AM
It seems strange that no one has 10 points on the poll. Ok heres some simple math that I did based on the poll. if there are 1000 aplications for a hunt area & the average is lets say 5 years or 5 points that would be 25000 names in the pot. Right 5 x 5 =25 x 1000 & if I have 8 points or a total of 8 x 8 =64 entries my chances of being drawn are 1/390.... still not that good.You math is exactly correct. In fact, the overall average points for deer is closer to 2.8 so your odds would be around 1 in 120 in your example.
Unfortunately there are a large number of hunters who believe that everyone with lots of points should draw. That's simply not true: there are far more applicants than permits for the desirable hunts.
Post by: boneaddict on June 11, 2010, 06:50:10 AM
Post by: Pathfinder101 on June 11, 2010, 07:31:03 AM
Post by: MtnMuley on June 11, 2010, 07:44:59 AM
As for the OILs, I think the point system is the only way to go. Reward those who have spent numerous years applying with a better chance of being drawn. I would rather see a preference point system than a bonus point system though. :twocents:
Post by: bobcat on June 11, 2010, 07:49:43 AM
As for the OILs, I think the point system is the only way to go. Reward those who have spent numerous years applying with a better chance of being drawn. I would rather see a preference point system than a bonus point system though. :twocents:
But, how would preference points work with permits that have odds of 1 in 200, or 1 in 500? I don't think it would work very well. Certainly no better than our bonus point system. I think with the OIL species we'd be better off without points, and simply make it more expensive to apply, AND also they could only allow a person to apply for one species (moose, goat, or sheep.) Or, they could do like Idaho does, and if you apply for deer or elk permits, you cannot apply for OIL species.
Post by: Pathfinder101 on June 11, 2010, 07:54:39 AM
Someone who knows better can chime in, maybe I misunderstand the concept... :dunno:
Post by: MtnMuley on June 11, 2010, 07:57:59 AM
I totally agree with you on the 1 OIL per year deal. Also, having it so you could only submit 1 OIL app per year for points also.
Post by: boneaddict on June 11, 2010, 08:00:36 AM
Post by: MtnMuley on June 11, 2010, 08:00:54 AM
Unless I am confused (which wouldn't be the first time BTW), "preference points" means that a percentage of the tags go to the applicants in the pool with the "most points" (like what I was talking about in WY). It only works in states where there are enough tags to "clean out" the max points pool every year (or at least nearly clean it out).
Someone who knows better can chime in, maybe I misunderstand the concept... :dunno:
Yes, but I don't agree with the part where in ONLY works in states where there are enough tags to "clean out" the max points pool every year (or at least nearly clean it out).
Post by: boneaddict on June 11, 2010, 08:01:37 AM
Post by: MtnMuley on June 11, 2010, 08:04:01 AM
Thats their only real fix. The 25% isjust a scam though when you are on the NR side of it, as a resident it might work better. Like Wyoming gave out a whoopping 3 moose tags for NR this year in the random draw.
You're absolutely right about the NR deal. I wasn't taking that into consideration. Guess they would fit in where they do now. Same as everyone else, and had better hope they'd been putting for the last 15 years. ;)
Post by: Pathfinder101 on June 11, 2010, 08:05:03 AM
Unless I am confused (which wouldn't be the first time BTW), "preference points" means that a percentage of the tags go to the applicants in the pool with the "most points" (like what I was talking about in WY). It only works in states where there are enough tags to "clean out" the max points pool every year (or at least nearly clean it out).
Someone who knows better can chime in, maybe I misunderstand the concept... :dunno:
Yes, but I don't agree with the part where in ONLY works in states where there are enough tags to "clean out" the max points pool every year (or at least nearly clean it out).
I wasn't talking about OIL Tags (I thought we were talking about deer tags). What I meant by "works", is that you can "know" what year you are going to be drawn (or pretty close).
Post by: bobcat on June 11, 2010, 08:11:54 AM
I wasn't talking about OIL Tags (I thought we were talking about deer tags). What I meant by "works", is that you can "know" what year you are going to be drawn (or pretty close).
Yes but what good would it be to know that you would draw in 87 years, knowing that you will be dead by then? :dunno:
I think if we were to have a preference point system, we would have to eliminate general seasons in order to increase permits by a large amount so that a preference point system could work. Otherwise, the number of applicants is just too high for the number of permits available.
Post by: Bob33 on June 11, 2010, 08:23:32 AM
Here's how it works, using Oregon as an example. Six years ago it took six points to draw a Snake River elk tag. Let's assume there were 20 tags, and 20 applicants with six points: all would draw.
That means if you started applying six years ago you could plan to draw in 2010, right? It didn't work that way. More and more applicants have decided to apply for that area, and many of them already had points from applying. So now you have 30 applicants with maximum points, so not all will draw. The 10 that don't will get bumped into 2011 when they'll have seven points, making odds of drawing next year harder as well. Furthermore, the word gets out that the Snake River unit is "hot", so even more jump into the pool.
This is happening in Colorado and other states.
Going to a preference point system for OIL tags, and even some of the most desirable deer and elk tags essentially means that unless you are already at or within a point of two of maximum, you will never draw in your lifetime. Look at the Desert deer permits: 15 for 4500 applicants. If they give away 15 to the applicants with the most points, it might work for a year or two but in a few years you will have the 10 point group (over 300) coming through fighting for 15 permits. Then what happens?
Post by: Romulus on June 11, 2010, 08:37:47 AM
Post by: benhuntin on June 11, 2010, 08:56:58 AM
The only way to get better in a state like Washington is to make people give up something to get something. Change the fee structure for special permits and make you pick one species. Since we have points for multiple species when a guy picks his species all his points go to that species draw so no one can complain they lost points they have been accruing for years. Tweek the fees so the state has virtually no reduction in revenue and include anterless etc. Make the application fees something like $125 for sheep, goat, moose $100 for trophy elk, $75 for trophy deer $5 for antlerless deer/elk. Also charge a premium for the tag once you draw. Have this separate from general seasons. If you want to put in for special permits you give up some of the general seasons like they used to for elk. If we did all that we could get decent draw odds guys who truly are willing to sacrifice would draw more permits and guys would also have less competition in the general seasons. It could be win win for everyone. People just like to pretend they have a chance and many like the cheap $6 app that dilutes the odds. It might take a year or two to figure out where the fees need to be based on demand but it would not be that hard. And dont tell me guys can't afford $100 for a chance. Every coffee stand still has a line every day for $4 cups of coffee. If you really want it everyone can afford it. Most just want it all without sacrifice.Your theory, of a guy should be able to aford $100 is B.S. You say it in your own statement "the odds would be better" how would they be better if you are not excluding people. Those who can afford to do it always say, anyone can aford it, but there are guys that simply CAN'T. I think washington has the best system for being fair for everyone. If you want to spend more money to get better odds buy raffle tickets or go out of state if you think that will help you. Hell if you are that big of a baller go on a fully guided hunt and you can hunt whatever you want. :twocents:
Post by: Romulus on June 11, 2010, 09:55:58 AM
Post by: benhuntin on June 11, 2010, 10:09:17 AM
Post by: Romulus on June 11, 2010, 10:32:15 AM
Post by: bobcat on June 11, 2010, 10:39:00 AM
Post by: H2Ofuzz on June 11, 2010, 10:53:58 AM
It will only be you! I did not even waste the $6 to put in for moose or goats even though I have 14 pts for each because I feel it is a waste of money. If you had to pick only one species to put in for and all of your points went towards it and it cost a little more to do it what would you pick? It would be a hard choice but you might get a couple good tags in your life instead of one if you are lucky! Good luck in the draw!
You have 14pts and did not put in this year??? WOW that is all i can say. :dunno:
Post by: 270Shooter on June 11, 2010, 11:07:05 AM
Post by: Bob33 on June 11, 2010, 11:15:37 AM
You have 14pts and did not put in this year??? WOW that is all i can say. :dunno:Why wow? Look at the odds of drawing a mountain goat permit, even with 14 points.
[smg id=9475]
Post by: benhuntin on June 11, 2010, 11:33:36 AM
Post by: bobcat on June 11, 2010, 11:40:17 AM
So we have:
14 points = 1 in 150
13 points = 1 in 66
10 points = 1 in 411
???
Post by: benhuntin on June 11, 2010, 11:42:17 AM
Post by: H2Ofuzz on June 11, 2010, 11:55:04 AM
Post by: Bob33 on June 11, 2010, 12:07:21 PM
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
Note that odds increase as points increase. However, bonus points are (supposed to be) squared, so someone with 10 points has 100 names in the hat, versus 1 name in the hat with 1 point...
[smg id=9478]
Post by: winston2789 on June 11, 2010, 12:12:06 PM
Post by: NRA4LIFE on June 11, 2010, 12:21:14 PM
Post by: Bob33 on June 11, 2010, 12:24:03 PM
Post by: methowman on June 11, 2010, 01:31:04 PM
success rate of being drawn based on 830 applicants & 100 applicant winners & a guy with 1 point has a 5.65% success rate based on 14844 applicants & 2627 applicant winners. So basically I only gained less than 3% points higher after waiting 8 years ! :'(
Post by: bobcat on June 11, 2010, 01:42:28 PM
Post by: Romulus on June 11, 2010, 02:20:17 PM
Post by: Atroxus on June 11, 2010, 02:30:16 PM
Post by: bobcat on June 11, 2010, 02:32:39 PM
Post by: NRA4LIFE on June 11, 2010, 03:22:46 PM
Romulus does make a good point. If I had been putting in for 14 years, I would sure like my odds to be a wee bit better than 1 in 29. I have some opinions on how to make it more equitable, but so does everybody I'm sure.
Post by: Chesapeake on June 11, 2010, 03:41:40 PM
Post by: videoman on June 11, 2010, 03:49:08 PM
Post by: Atroxus on June 11, 2010, 04:01:27 PM
I think that at least 50% of the tags should go to max point holder and the other 50% to random draw.
That actually sounds like an idea I could get behind. Although being a new hunter I would be pretty much boned on draw odds for for quite awhile.
Post by: Bob33 on June 11, 2010, 04:12:15 PM
Post by: jackelope on June 11, 2010, 04:14:17 PM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on June 11, 2010, 04:31:01 PM
Post by: Bob33 on June 11, 2010, 05:05:32 PM
Post by: Romulus on June 11, 2010, 08:52:03 PM
Post by: Pathfinder101 on June 12, 2010, 09:09:22 AM
That graph sucks. It shows me having actually 0.00% odds of drawing a tag where I'm at.
That's just because of "tag draw history". Historically no one with your amount of points has drawn that tag. You are not figuring lady luck into the equation... Just be an optimist, and it won't bother you... ;)
Post by: Bob33 on June 12, 2010, 09:23:25 AM
NRA for life is that the odds moose including cows? I am curious if you could that for the specific bull units to see how they compare. I think to get better numbers you need to calculate for specific hunts not specific species. The odds for the better units in each category are much worse than the odds for the species as a whole with antlerless included.
Here are the draw results for 2009 moose hunt 49 Degrees North. There were 22 permits given out.
[smg id=9480]
[smg id=9479]
Post by: Pathfinder101 on June 12, 2010, 09:29:51 AM
Post by: Bob33 on June 12, 2010, 09:39:37 AM
This is just a snapshot, and AGAIN, no one is figuring luck into the equation. So, what this says is that if I have 8 points, I have a decent chance of drawing a tag, but if I have 9 points then I have absolutely NO chance of drawing it. Like I said, it's a snapshot. Overall, it says what we all already knew. If you have 14 or 15 points you have the best chance of being drawn. It's a lottery guys!It's just that some believe that everyone with maximum or close to maximum points should draw. More points means better odds, but nowhere near 100%. The best you can do with the OIL tags is probably up to around 5% odds in any year. Of course anyone can draw, even with 1 point. It's just much rarer. For this hunt in 2009 there were 2399 applicants with 1 point, and none drew. It could happen, but it rarely does. Of the 600 some applicants with 13 or more points, only 6 drew.
Post by: WDFW Hates ME!!! on June 12, 2010, 10:36:04 AM
To really figure out your odds of drawing you have to take the amount of total points for everyone and then divide that by your total points and then you would know your true odds. But those odds change with the first person pulled. Say they had 10 points and they get drawn first, now there are 100 less names in the hat. So in effect your odds just increased.
Post by: B.G.hunter on June 13, 2010, 03:22:45 PM
NRA for life is that the odds moose including cows? I am curious if you could that for the specific bull units to see how they compare. I think to get better numbers you need to calculate for specific hunts not specific species. The odds for the better units in each category are much worse than the odds for the species as a whole with antlerless included.
Here are the draw results for 2009 moose hunt 49 Degrees North. There were 22 permits given out.
[smg id=9480]
[smg id=9479]
here how worked the odds on this drawing
1 point = 1 in 594367
2 points = 1 in 148591
3 points = 1 in 66040
4 points = 1 in 37147
5 points = 1 in 23774
6 points = 1 in 16510
7 points = 1 in 12129
8 points = 1 in 9286
9 points = 1 in 7337
10 points = 1 in 5943
11 points = 1 in 4912
12 points = 1 in 4127
13 points = 1 in 3516
14 points = 1 in 3032
15 points = 1 in 2641
16 points = 1 in 2321
I took the total number of tickets in the drawing (594367) and divided it by the number of tickets each applicant would have in there. :twocents:
Post by: WDFW-SUX on June 13, 2010, 03:40:55 PM
Post by: WDFW-SUX on June 13, 2010, 03:45:15 PM
I think that at least 50% of the tags should go to max point holder and the other 50% to random draw.
Thats stupid.
Post by: jackelope on June 13, 2010, 03:57:54 PM
Post by: B.G.hunter on June 13, 2010, 05:29:53 PM
Post by: WDFW Hates ME!!! on June 13, 2010, 05:30:25 PM
Post by: Dirty Mike on June 13, 2010, 07:41:53 PM
Post by: videoman on June 14, 2010, 05:31:36 PM