Post by: bobcat on September 01, 2010, 02:13:04 PM
Post by: bobcat on September 01, 2010, 02:21:44 PM
:bdid:
Post by: WABONEHNTR on September 01, 2010, 02:25:01 PM
Post by: bobcat on September 01, 2010, 02:28:31 PM
I sure hope they change the way tags are drawn. Max points should draw the OIL tags. No reason why 6pts should draw a sheep tag over my 15pts. Sure hope that changes.
Not sure I agree with that. It sounds good, but what about the new hunters just starting to build points? They would never be able to draw in a lifetime of applying, if that were the case. What would be the inventive for them to even apply?
Post by: kramman on September 01, 2010, 02:29:46 PM
Post by: WABONEHNTR on September 01, 2010, 02:30:44 PM
Post by: Bob33 on September 01, 2010, 02:33:26 PM
I would stop applying but Im already into for 8yrs.I've heard that a local company is offering a 12 step program for breaking the permit habit. Some have gone cold turkey, but most need assistance. The first step is admitting that you're addicted to the applications.
Post by: Bearhunter on September 01, 2010, 02:35:47 PM
Post by: bobcat on September 01, 2010, 02:38:15 PM
The cow elk hunts I applied for: #1 1122 2193
#2 1771 3846
#3 267 444
Post by: ramslam on September 01, 2010, 02:47:39 PM
Unfortunately, it would take 10+ years to cycle through those with max points for sheep including those that have actually have "more than max".
Post by: bobcat on September 01, 2010, 02:53:06 PM
Where did the 2009 drawing results summery go to or am I overlooking it?
They got rid of it quite a while ago. I wish I would have saved a copy of it. You can still get numbers of 2009 applicants from the 2010 regulation pamphlet.
Post by: bobcat on September 01, 2010, 02:56:16 PM
Margaret 1:197 1:170
Toutle 1:24 1:20
Post by: ramslam on September 01, 2010, 03:01:44 PM
Post by: WABONEHNTR on September 01, 2010, 03:02:53 PM
Where did the 2009 drawing results summery go to or am I overlooking it?
Unfortunately, it would take 10+ years to cycle through those with max points for sheep including those that have actually have "more than max".
I understand the time frame but at least I would have a better chance to draw a tag. I will never draw as long as the people with less than max pts keep getting the tags.
Post by: bobcat on September 01, 2010, 03:07:12 PM
I understand the time frame but at least I would have a better chance to draw a tag. I will never draw as long as the people with less than max pts keep getting the tags.
MOST people will never draw a sheep tag in Washington. Look at the odds... it was 1 in 400 this year. So you should expect to draw a sheep tag one time in 400 years of applying.
The only way to improve odds is to either raise the cost of applying substantially, or do something like if a person applies for deer or elk permit, they cannot apply for moose, sheep, or goat.
Post by: MuleySniper on September 01, 2010, 03:08:32 PM
Post by: ramslam on September 01, 2010, 03:12:19 PM
Post by: mkcj on September 01, 2010, 03:15:05 PM
Post by: ramslam on September 01, 2010, 03:16:25 PM
Here is sheep:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/sheep_hunt_name.php (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/sheep_hunt_name.php)
Here is elk:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/elk_hunt_name.php (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/elk_hunt_name.php)
I guess its time to compare to really see what the changes in the application process did to draw odds.
Post by: bobcat on September 01, 2010, 03:18:36 PM
CHEWUCH and PEARRYGIN didn't go up at all seems like everyone Else's area tripled but not these 2
Most of the Quality hunts I have looked at the number of applicants decreased by about half.
This makes sense as the Quality applications went from having 4 choices to only 2 choices.
Post by: MuleySniper on September 01, 2010, 03:19:53 PM
Post by: bobcat on September 01, 2010, 03:20:56 PM
And I found the 2009 drawing summaries.
Here is sheep:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/sheep_hunt_name.php (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/sheep_hunt_name.php)
Here is elk:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/elk_hunt_name.php (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/elk_hunt_name.php)
I guess its time to compare to really see what the changes in the application process did to draw odds.
Those are the Harvest Reports, not the Draw Result Summaries. :dunno:
Post by: billythekidrock on September 01, 2010, 03:23:01 PM
CHEWUCH and PEARRYGIN didn't go up at all seems like everyone Else's area tripled but not these 2
Most of the Quality hunts I have looked at the number of applicants decreased by about half.
This makes sense as the Quality applications went from having 4 choices to only 2 choices.
I noticed that the 3 local "Quality" buck permit applicants dropped by nearly 1/3. Not at much as I thought but still a significant drop.
Post by: ramslam on September 01, 2010, 03:53:59 PM
Here is sheep. Its the detailed breakdown and not the summary.
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/2009permit_summary_sheep.pdf (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/2009permit_summary_sheep.pdf)
Post by: jackelope on September 01, 2010, 03:56:06 PM
8)
Post by: Ridgerunner on September 01, 2010, 04:00:59 PM
Post by: Ridgerunner on September 01, 2010, 04:02:33 PM
Post by: bobcat on September 01, 2010, 04:07:19 PM
Post by: jackelope on September 01, 2010, 04:09:03 PM
You can figure out the average number of points it takes, but not the odds.
:twocents:
Post by: Ridgerunner on September 01, 2010, 04:10:00 PM
Post by: Lowedog on September 01, 2010, 04:14:20 PM
Wow! Only six points to draw the Swakane sheep tag? Funny how a local ended up with that "one" :rolleyes:
So your saying it was fixed? I wonder what I need to do to be the "one" to draw an OIL tag? Ridgerunner, fill me in!
Post by: MuleySniper on September 01, 2010, 04:18:59 PM
Wow! Only six points to draw the Swakane sheep tag? Funny how a local ended up with that "one" :rolleyes:
So your saying it was fixed? I wonder what I need to do to be the "one" to draw an OIL tag? Ridgerunner, fill me in!
You said it. Not me.
I'm glad local got it otherwise we'd all have to hear some of you Wenatchee guys whine if a coasty ended up with it.
Post by: Lowedog on September 01, 2010, 04:31:47 PM
Post by: MuleySniper on September 01, 2010, 04:44:04 PM
MS
Post by: Bob33 on September 02, 2010, 08:27:49 AM
Here is the detailed 2009 sheep draw summary: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/2009permit_summary_sheep.pdf (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/2009permit_summary_sheep.pdf)And I found the 2009 drawing summaries.
Here is sheep:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/sheep_hunt_name.php (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/sheep_hunt_name.php)
Here is elk:
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/elk_hunt_name.php (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/reports/elk_hunt_name.php)
I guess its time to compare to really see what the changes in the application process did to draw odds.
Those are the Harvest Reports, not the Draw Result Summaries. :dunno:
Post by: SkookumHntr on September 03, 2010, 11:03:32 AM
Post by: uplandhunter870 on September 03, 2010, 11:22:14 AM
increase draw odds my ---, its more like increased revenue with less payout to the supporters
Post by: NRA4LIFE on September 03, 2010, 11:36:29 AM
Post by: hunter-4-life on September 03, 2010, 02:04:13 PM
Post by: Lowedog on September 03, 2010, 03:39:48 PM
You also have to take in to consideration that alot of people had been saving points for years and only been putting in for the premier tags. And now that this year everyone all of a sudden got their points transferred between several categories and it don't hurt you to put in for other hunts besides the premier tags because you will only lose in the category/categories you drew for. so my prediction was that alot of people took their high number of points and applied for several hunts knowing that there would be a chance of drawing multiple permits. There for that would increase the number of applicants with high number points to put in for the permits that usually have a low average of points to draw the permit. So for example I saw that most cow elk hunts the average went up alot due to all the people that have been holding out for a bull tag. My prediction was right that this year we were going to see the averages go up and next year they should go down because alot of people wasted points by putting in for more than one permit knowing that they had great odds of drawing. Like putting in for a cow hunt with 10 points. Well anyway those are my thoughts on all this.:yeah:
Post by: Romulus on September 03, 2010, 04:08:59 PM
Post by: NRA4LIFE on September 03, 2010, 04:15:37 PM
Post by: billythekidrock on September 03, 2010, 04:31:48 PM
I posted this elsewhere a few months back, but what has happened is exactly what I predicted for cow tags in Eastern WA. The days of drawing a cow tag every other or every third year are over. What used to take 2 or 3 points is now 6 or 7 or more. Look at the number of applications submitted for Little Naches, Umtanum ans Manastash. Almost 11000 for those 3 units alone.
Yes, many of us predicted this. But ask D. Ware and he will tell you that the system is great. :bash:
Post by: Lowedog on September 03, 2010, 04:38:17 PM
I think what the last 2 posters don't realize is the vast majority do know what their chance of drawing one of these tags is. It's like playing the lotto though, someone has got to win and if you don't play the game it won't be you!
I'm all for a way to weed out the guys throwing their name in the hat just cause its cheap. Try convincing the WDFW of that though...
Post by: PA BEN on September 04, 2010, 06:08:16 AM
You nailed it Romulus. That was exactly my point in another thread. Even the guys with max points right now still have crappy odds. And what people don't realize is that the vast majotiry of us well NEVER get an OIL tag or a quality bull tag. NEVERI like the way the draw is now, I lost all my points 6 years ago to a 4th choice cow hunt. But they still need to work on getting the people w/more points to get drawn. Less people put in for the tag I drew this year, 131 last year and 100 this year, avg. points was 6, I went w/6 points. I can see a low number last year, first year of this tag, but the number should have gone up. :dunno:
Post by: Bob33 on September 05, 2010, 12:05:45 AM
You nailed it Romulus. That was exactly my point in another thread. Even the guys with max points right now still have crappy odds. And what people don't realize is that the vast majotiry of us well NEVER get an OIL tag or a quality bull tag. NEVEROIL is a misnomer. NIL is better: "Never In a Lifetime" for 99% of the hunters.
Special permits have become just another lottery. People that play the game have a chance, just like buying a lottery ticket.
Post by: InsideWDFW on October 19, 2010, 11:25:11 PM
http://www.mediafire.com/?e4cdo3y5timmdg5 (http://www.mediafire.com/?e4cdo3y5timmdg5) and http://www.mediafire.com/?996rvsv9la9cgnj (http://www.mediafire.com/?996rvsv9la9cgnj)
The first file is where all the raw data from the WILD system is pasted into, and the second is the cleaned up version that gets posted at http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/ (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/).