Post by: Halo on March 15, 2011, 07:31:05 PM
Post by: billythekidrock on March 15, 2011, 07:33:32 PM
Post by: Halo on March 15, 2011, 07:54:13 PM
Post by: throttlejocky20 on March 15, 2011, 07:58:01 PM
Post by: shedcrazy on March 15, 2011, 07:59:08 PM
Post by: hoyt2002 on March 15, 2011, 08:04:09 PM
Post by: Bigtine96 on March 15, 2011, 08:05:29 PM
Post by: 50CalJim on March 15, 2011, 08:08:17 PM
Post by: dawei on March 15, 2011, 08:09:44 PM
Post by: jackelope on March 15, 2011, 08:09:54 PM
Blue mnts and thats it.
I would do the Blues too assuming you know some of that country. If you don't I would still do it assuming you could get some time in to scout or hire a guide. That is some serious country and if you don't know what you're getting into, you will get your ass handed to you. Even if you think you know, go scout some more. Take my word for it. No way in creation would I be burning 23 points on a westside permit.
Post by: rtspring on March 15, 2011, 08:12:50 PM
You have a great chance at taking a bull of a life time. I say go for the East side.........
and good luck...........
Post by: Rhinoron247 on March 15, 2011, 08:15:48 PM
Post by: huntandjeep on March 15, 2011, 08:16:54 PM
Post by: Halo on March 15, 2011, 08:28:38 PM
Post by: demontang on March 15, 2011, 08:29:23 PM
Post by: Halo on March 15, 2011, 08:37:21 PM
Post by: yelp on March 15, 2011, 08:38:29 PM
Post by: jackelope on March 15, 2011, 08:39:26 PM
Post by: demontang on March 15, 2011, 08:43:25 PM
Post by: Halo on March 15, 2011, 08:46:42 PM
Post by: rtspring on March 15, 2011, 08:48:00 PM
We havea guy in our camp that draws a cow tag, almost every other year.........luck SOB
Post by: mebco09 on March 15, 2011, 08:51:55 PM
Post by: rtspring on March 15, 2011, 08:53:17 PM
Post by: yelp on March 15, 2011, 08:53:44 PM
How do you calculate odds in a bonus point system without knowing how many points each of the applicants has when they select a particular unit. I used to be a math geek and I've not been able to figure it out.
I don't think you will ever know how many will put in for any given permit until after the drawing. I would assume that your odds maybe better on the lower number of applicant permits. For example. The sept. bull rifle tags. :twocents: I would also take advantage of putting in for cow tags also.
Post by: bobcat on March 15, 2011, 08:54:11 PM
Post by: jackelope on March 15, 2011, 08:54:28 PM
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/results.php?Species=ELK (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/results.php?Species=ELK)
Are you putting in for rifle permits?
The highest average points for a Peaches quality bull tag was 7.24. I dont know what hunt that was but if anyone has the regs handy it was hunt #2087.
Post by: grundy53 on March 15, 2011, 08:55:20 PM
Post by: teanawayslayer on March 15, 2011, 08:56:08 PM
What would you put in for with 23 Washington elk points? And what do you think the odds of draw would be? I have the odds figured on Excel for all quality rifle elk tags, even with that many points odds are not very good. If you normaly hunt West side rifle would you put in West side & go for a nice Rosevelt or put in East & hope to draw giving up the backup plan of Westside general elk? Or maybe hope to draw multiseason to put in East & not give up West as plan B?eastside. quality teanaway. They give out one tag. don't know what the odds are but I would be putting in for it for sure if I had 23 points.
Post by: 400out on March 15, 2011, 08:59:33 PM
I as asuming you have 23 points, I have to ask what area have you been putting in for to get that amount and not drawn :dunno:
Post by: Bearhunter on March 15, 2011, 09:02:37 PM
Post by: Bob33 on March 15, 2011, 09:05:15 PM
I would like to see this odds Formula my self. Please post it......Here is how I would compute the odds.
We havea guy in our camp that draws a cow tag, almost every other year.........luck SOB
Use Dayton hunt #2006 as an example. The regulations indicate there were 30 permits and 1677 applicants. (The reality is that some of the 1677 applicants may have been drawn for other hunts, so there were not 1677 applicants competing for the Dayton tag. )
Assume there were in fact 1677 applicants. Each of the 1677 applicants has 7.5 points. That means each of the 1677 applicants has about 56 (7.5x7.5) names in the "hat". That means there are a total of 56x1677 = 93,912 names in the hat.
Mr. Halo has 23 points, so he has 23*23 = 529 names in the hat. His odds of getting the first tag drawn are about 529 / 93912, or about 1 in 177.
On the second name being drawn, his odds are a bit better because the person drawn first is no longer eligible. That means there are 56 fewer eligible names in the hat. On the second draw, Mr. Halo’s odds are now 529 / 93856.
This process continues until Mr. Halo is drawn, or until the 30 tags are given out.
Assuming that each draw provides Mr. Halo with a 1 in 177 odds of being drawn, his odds of not being drawn for any of the 30 permits is (176/177)^30 which equals .84. That means he has an 84% chance of not being drawn, which means he has about a 16% chance of being drawn.
Real simple!
Post by: Halo on March 15, 2011, 09:10:55 PM
Post by: Alan K on March 15, 2011, 09:13:25 PM
If you couldn't tell, I'm not much of an east side guy. :chuckle:
Post by: BoomWhop on March 15, 2011, 09:14:13 PM
Post by: bobcat on March 15, 2011, 09:16:05 PM
Post by: Halo on March 15, 2011, 09:18:13 PM
Post by: STIKNSTRINGBOW on March 15, 2011, 09:18:26 PM
Post by: Bearhunter on March 15, 2011, 09:19:18 PM
Post by: Ridgerunner on March 15, 2011, 09:19:47 PM
Post by: grundy53 on March 15, 2011, 09:21:27 PM
I could be wrong, or ruining your guys secret, but as far as I know Quinalt is going from 1 permit to 5, where did you hear it was gone ??
Billythekidrock...... :P :chuckle: :bash:
Post by: STIKNSTRINGBOW on March 15, 2011, 09:21:49 PM
Post by: Alan K on March 15, 2011, 09:23:27 PM
Nooksack bulls are not a true Rosey, you need to go to the coast to get a true pure strain Rosey....
Maybe for the record books, but most people consider elk anywhere on the west side as Roosevelt. Whether their coastal roosie or cascade roosie it doesn't make a huge difference to 'em. :dunno:
I'm not much for scoring/record books either. :chuckle:
Post by: Bob33 on March 15, 2011, 09:25:57 PM
If he has 23 points now he will have 24 in the drawing this year, so 24x24 = 576 names in the hat.True. But then wouldn't the 7.5 pointers have 8.5 points?
Computing the odds precisely is simply not possible, because you can't know how many points the other applicants have.
Post by: Alan K on March 15, 2011, 09:27:57 PM
Post by: bucklucky on March 15, 2011, 09:31:16 PM
Post by: Bob33 on March 15, 2011, 09:36:55 PM
Where are you guys getting the 7.5? Is that just a made up thing or is that the average points for someone drawing the tag?The OP stated "I am estimating the average number of points of the applicants at 7.5"
The key word is "estimating"...
Each year that you are not drawn, you gain a point. When you are looking at a pool of 1677 applicants, there is no way to know the number of points that each applicant has.
I believe that 7.5 is high and that that it is closer to 4.3 average points per elk applicant. That would increase the odds of someone with 23 or 24 points being drawn.
Post by: time2hunt on March 15, 2011, 09:40:46 PM
Post by: funkster on March 15, 2011, 09:43:27 PM
If I had 23 points I would not apply for anything on the westside but cow permits :twocents: You could also apply for antlerless permits one year,bull elk next year and then quality elk.You would retain your points in each category you didn't get pulled for. You could pull "good" tags for the next 3 years and make your points work for you :twocents:
Post by: Bob33 on March 15, 2011, 09:53:59 PM
Dungeness might not be too bad either, have you been through sequim lately...?Lots of big bulls, but there are two issues to consider: (1) access. Virtually all of the land is private; (2) shotguns only north of 101. That can be addressed, but land access is a tough one. The vast majority of the landowners are tree huggers and do not allow any hunting.
Post by: Annette on March 15, 2011, 09:58:49 PM
Halo, Put in for a Coastal Rosevelt area...Like was said, all the other states have big rockys every where. :chuckle:
go for a rut hunt even if you have to leard to shoot a bow!!
The record books call everything east of I 5...Yellowstone elk, except for that cascade elk thing ;)..
and if you did get some points for turning in poachers, thank you....
Post by: Turkeyman on March 15, 2011, 10:15:34 PM
Post by: huntnnw on March 15, 2011, 10:17:08 PM
Post by: deerslyr on March 15, 2011, 10:22:31 PM
Post by: billythekidrock on March 16, 2011, 05:09:12 AM
Say it aint so, no Quinault? and with 23 points the odds would be all the way up to 4%
Well if you want at trophy roosie then try the nooksack,Margaret, toutle, or the like. Quinault would be my first choice but apparently they are taking it away. :dunno:
I could be wrong, or ruining your guys secret, but as far as I know Quinalt is going from 1 permit to 5, where did you hear it was gone ??
There is still the single September permit for Quinault, but they took away the 5 October permits last year. If you want a rosie than it is the one for you, but with only one permit it is still a long shot with 23 points. If it goes up to 5 then you are golden, but until it does it will still be a tough draw.
Post by: billythekidrock on March 16, 2011, 05:33:27 AM
Since you have a decent amount of points in oregon i would try and get a roosie tag down if thats what you wanted. Washingtons been pumpin out alot of nice bulls from the eastside so my pick would be the teanaway rut tag or any blues tag.
:yeah:
Post by: dreamingbig on March 16, 2011, 05:54:31 AM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 16, 2011, 06:32:38 AM
Post by: bobcat on March 16, 2011, 06:41:32 AM
There is still the single September permit for Quinault, but they took away the 5 October permits last year. If you want a rosie than it is the one for you, but with only one permit it is still a long shot with 23 points. If it goes up to 5 then you are golden, but until it does it will still be a tough draw.
It is going up to five, at least that is what it shows in the proposals. That is a rifle permit in late September.
Post by: jackmaster on March 16, 2011, 06:47:04 AM
Post by: Curly on March 16, 2011, 07:11:00 AM
Post by: jackelope on March 16, 2011, 07:26:33 AM
Where are you guys getting the 7.5? Is that just a made up thing or is that the average points for someone drawing the tag?
Exactly....ding ding ding....you could pull any # out of your arse and use it. Simply put, you've got waaaaayyyyy better odds with 23 points than anyone else. Thats about as accurate as it gets.
Post by: Curly on March 16, 2011, 08:06:16 AM
Post by: teanawayslayer on March 16, 2011, 08:21:07 AM
Post by: MtnMuley on March 16, 2011, 08:26:33 AM
Post by: MIKEXRAY on March 16, 2011, 08:54:49 AM
Post by: yelp on March 16, 2011, 11:33:19 AM
How do you calculate odds in a bonus point system without knowing how many points each of the applicants has when they select a particular unit. I used to be a math geek and I've not been able to figure it out.
I don't think you will ever know how many will put in for any given permit until after the drawing. I would assume that your odds maybe better on the lower number of applicant permits. For example. The sept. bull rifle tags. :twocents: I would also take advantage of putting in for cow tags also.
hello? lol
Post by: Ridgerunner on March 16, 2011, 11:42:27 AM
Post by: WSU on March 16, 2011, 11:55:18 AM
I would like to see this odds Formula my self. Please post it......Here is how I would compute the odds.
We havea guy in our camp that draws a cow tag, almost every other year.........luck SOB
Use Dayton hunt #2006 as an example. The regulations indicate there were 30 permits and 1677 applicants. (The reality is that some of the 1677 applicants may have been drawn for other hunts, so there were not 1677 applicants competing for the Dayton tag. )
Assume there were in fact 1677 applicants. Each of the 1677 applicants has 7.5 points. That means each of the 1677 applicants has about 56 (7.5x7.5) names in the "hat". That means there are a total of 56x1677 = 93,912 names in the hat.
Mr. Halo has 23 points, so he has 23*23 = 529 names in the hat. His odds of getting the first tag drawn are about 529 / 93912, or about 1 in 177.
On the second name being drawn, his odds are a bit better because the person drawn first is no longer eligible. That means there are 56 fewer eligible names in the hat. On the second draw, Mr. Halo’s odds are now 529 / 93856.
This process continues until Mr. Halo is drawn, or until the 30 tags are given out.
Assuming that each draw provides Mr. Halo with a 1 in 177 odds of being drawn, his odds of not being drawn for any of the 30 permits is (176/177)^30 which equals .84. That means he has an 84% chance of not being drawn, which means he has about a 16% chance of being drawn.
Real simple!
I usually don't jump in on these posts, but i'm pretty sure this is incorrect. Its been a while since I took statistics, but having 30 chances doesn't change your odds proportionately. The odds are still 1 in 177 for each drawing (except, as you point out, are reduced by the names in the hat that were removed by the individual getting drawn for the preceeding permit).
Post by: greenhead_killer on March 16, 2011, 12:00:54 PM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 16, 2011, 12:01:39 PM
If he really wants to get drawn he'll put in as a partnership with me, combine our points and we'd still have 14 or 15. Throw in my luck in pulling great tags and he'd be going elk hunting in the blues this year. LOL.Or maybe 2075 is more like it. :chuckle:
Post by: jackmaster on March 16, 2011, 12:18:20 PM
i only got to page two on this one but didnt they bust a guy in the fish and game dept last year that had been rigging the system for the last 5-10years? i had a good source tell me that. some guys were getting great tags every year or every other year.dude i dont want to jack the thread but i would really like to know more about this *censored* that was helpn people draw tags at the wdfw
Post by: Ridgerunner on March 16, 2011, 12:40:19 PM
Post by: yelp on March 16, 2011, 01:49:36 PM
i only got to page two on this one but didnt they bust a guy in the fish and game dept last year that had been rigging the system for the last 5-10years? i had a good source tell me that. some guys were getting great tags every year or every other year.dude i dont want to jack the thread but i would really like to know more about this *censored* that was helpn people draw tags at the wdfw
Really..gotta hear more about this!
Post by: Curly on March 16, 2011, 01:54:49 PM
Post by: 400out on March 16, 2011, 02:06:55 PM
:yeah:I'm all eyesi only got to page two on this one but didnt they bust a guy in the fish and game dept last year that had been rigging the system for the last 5-10years? i had a good source tell me that. some guys were getting great tags every year or every other year.dude i dont want to jack the thread but i would really like to know more about this *censored* that was helpn people draw tags at the wdfw
Really..gotta hear more about this!
Post by: pianoman9701 on March 16, 2011, 02:15:31 PM
Post by: halflife65 on March 16, 2011, 02:44:12 PM
They square your points, so 23 points is 529 entries as opposed to a guy with 8 points that has 64 entries.
At any rate, you have a much better chance than most (maybe everyone) to draw.
BLUES.
Q: I heard that the points have multipliers on them. What is that for?
A: Some permit drawing systems are designed so that one random number is issued for each point built up for the species by the applicant. It is the same as having one card in the barrel for each point (one point - one card, two points - two cards, etc.).
Washington's system places a multiplier on the points. The number of points is squared and it is this number of random numbers that are issued to the application (or number of cards in the barrel). If a person applies for an elk permit for the first time, they have one card in the barrel. If a person has built up two points, they have four cards in the barrel. If a person has three points built up, nine cards are in the barrel and so on.
Placing a multiplier on the points more noticeably increases the chances of being selected over someone who is a new applicant or was recently awarded a permit.
Post by: jackmaster on March 16, 2011, 02:53:37 PM
Post by: NRA4LIFE on March 16, 2011, 03:36:49 PM
Post by: Bob33 on March 16, 2011, 03:42:52 PM
I usually don't jump in on these posts, but i'm pretty sure this is incorrect. Its been a while since I took statistics, but having 30 chances doesn't change your odds proportionately. The odds are still 1 in 177 for each drawing (except, as you point out, are reduced by the names in the hat that were removed by the individual getting drawn for the preceeding permit).There are 30 permits to be given out in this hypothetic example. Assuming they are drawn one by one, the chance of getting the first one drawn is about 1 in 177. If you don't get the first one drawn, you get another 1 in 177 chance and so forth until all 30 have been drawn. Your odds are therefore much better than 1 in 177. That would be the case if there was one tag and you had 529 of the 94,000 names in the hat.
Post by: 400out on March 16, 2011, 03:58:55 PM
ouch! those numbers hurt :o Please don't do the numbers on my odds :ACRY:I usually don't jump in on these posts, but i'm pretty sure this is incorrect. Its been a while since I took statistics, but having 30 chances doesn't change your odds proportionately. The odds are still 1 in 177 for each drawing (except, as you point out, are reduced by the names in the hat that were removed by the individual getting drawn for the preceeding permit).There are 30 permits to be given out in this hypothetic example. Assuming they are drawn one by one, the chance of getting the first one drawn is about 1 in 177. If you don't get the first one drawn, you get another 1 in 177 chance and so forth until all 30 have been drawn. Your odds are therefore much better than 1 in 177. That would be the case if there was one tag and you had 529 of the 94,000 names in the hat.
Post by: BENCHLEG on March 16, 2011, 04:11:06 PM
Post by: AlpineMuley on March 16, 2011, 04:12:35 PM
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 16, 2011, 04:35:19 PM
Understanding that your odds are substantially better to the point you could almost say no one has better odds, they still suck!!!!!
If it were me.........
Got pack stock? Going to pop for a guide? If yes to either, the Wenaha's rifle rut would be #1 and #2.
Got pack stock and 1 friend? Watershed would be #3.
Dayton would also make the short list. Nooksack might make the short list.
Roosie's? No clue. I don't do the wet........
Post by: gonehuntin68 on March 16, 2011, 04:35:34 PM
Post by: Bob33 on March 16, 2011, 04:42:29 PM
The numbers do hurt. Unfortunately the good tags are very difficult to draw, even with lots of points. For a hunt with 30 permits and 1700 applicants, it doesn’t take much math expertise to see that 1670 won’t get drawn…ouch! those numbers hurt :o Please don't do the numbers on my odds :ACRY:I usually don't jump in on these posts, but i'm pretty sure this is incorrect. Its been a while since I took statistics, but having 30 chances doesn't change your odds proportionately. The odds are still 1 in 177 for each drawing (except, as you point out, are reduced by the names in the hat that were removed by the individual getting drawn for the preceeding permit).There are 30 permits to be given out in this hypothetic example. Assuming they are drawn one by one, the chance of getting the first one drawn is about 1 in 177. If you don't get the first one drawn, you get another 1 in 177 chance and so forth until all 30 have been drawn. Your odds are therefore much better than 1 in 177. That would be the case if there was one tag and you had 529 of the 94,000 names in the hat.
Having lots of points increases the odds, but it does not assure a tag.
Post by: TeacherMan on March 16, 2011, 04:51:34 PM
I've know guy with 4points that have got a rimrok tag and three years late a peaches so I guess some are just lucky
I got Peaches with 1 point!!! :chuckle: Oh, I forgot to say I had Observatory the year before :chuckle:
Post by: whacker1 on March 16, 2011, 05:06:38 PM
Post by: 400out on March 16, 2011, 05:29:52 PM
Post by: elkslayer069 on March 16, 2011, 05:35:44 PM
Post by: Snapshot on March 16, 2011, 05:57:28 PM
Seriously...a big Roosie is the prize a guy can't get in most other states, so I'd look to a coastal hunt for my first choice and ghost points for the second and third choices.
Post by: YoterHunter on March 16, 2011, 06:07:47 PM
Post by: Halo on March 16, 2011, 06:59:21 PM
Post by: Boss .300 winmag on March 16, 2011, 07:04:55 PM
Post by: huntnnw on March 16, 2011, 09:56:39 PM
I wouldn't worry to much about the odds. In the system that wdfw uses is a load of crap. I have been drawn several times for deer tags with next to no points. Like this past year I was drawn for the alta quality deer. I had 2 points. I talked to several guys on the hunt that had been puting in for this hunt for 10 to 15 years. jjhunter on here had only 2 points also. Like last year I put in for a cow tag in 336 had 6 points going in a buddy had 1. He got the tag and I did not. Deffinetly with 23 points I would say you would have a good shot at what every you put in for. I am just saying that the system they use is not fair and do not believe it is a very weighted system. I am not complaining because I have been drawn for several hunts with a low point count. I just think I should be a little more fair to everyone!
CRAP? what do you prefer?? a system like UT or CO? where people who are 10 years back probably never get drawn in a life time, those system suck! If your starting now in those type of systems your chit out of luck for any high demand tag...ID has it right.. no points how it should be..NV and WA are the next with people with few points have a chance to draw
Post by: cle elum bowhunter on March 16, 2011, 10:39:31 PM
Post by: trophyhunt on March 17, 2011, 06:46:10 AM
Post by: WSU on March 17, 2011, 09:43:26 AM
The numbers do hurt. Unfortunately the good tags are very difficult to draw, even with lots of points. For a hunt with 30 permits and 1700 applicants, it doesn’t take much math expertise to see that 1670 won’t get drawn…ouch! those numbers hurt :o Please don't do the numbers on my odds :ACRY:I usually don't jump in on these posts, but i'm pretty sure this is incorrect. Its been a while since I took statistics, but having 30 chances doesn't change your odds proportionately. The odds are still 1 in 177 for each drawing (except, as you point out, are reduced by the names in the hat that were removed by the individual getting drawn for the preceeding permit).There are 30 permits to be given out in this hypothetic example. Assuming they are drawn one by one, the chance of getting the first one drawn is about 1 in 177. If you don't get the first one drawn, you get another 1 in 177 chance and so forth until all 30 have been drawn. Your odds are therefore much better than 1 in 177. That would be the case if there was one tag and you had 529 of the 94,000 names in the hat.
Having lots of points increases the odds, but it does not assure a tag.
Perhaps a better example is rolling a single die. Each roll gives you a one in six chance of getting a two. Rolling six times doesn't change the odds. Each time you have a one in six chance of rolling a two. Obviously the likelihood of getting a two goes up the more times you take the one in six chance, but not in the manner you indicated. Do the same math you did for everyone having 7.5 points (the assumed average) and you will see that everyone cannot have that high of a percentage chance of drawing.
Post by: rosscrazyelk on March 17, 2011, 02:41:36 PM
Post by: trophyhunt on March 18, 2011, 01:22:13 PM
Post by: bobcat on March 18, 2011, 01:26:23 PM
So this topic is making me feel worse about my chances of getting drawn :bash:. From what I can gather with my 16 points this year I still don't have much of a chance this year???? Is this what I hearing??? what do you guys think? I will be applying for muzzy in the dayton and wenaha.
With 16 elk points you should have a really good chance of drawing a good bull permit. Maybe not the Blue Mountain permits though, I'm not sure. I don't apply for those so I don't pay attention to how many they have, but I think numbers are pretty low. You might be better off applying for some of the Yakima area permits, if you want to draw this year.
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 18, 2011, 01:30:11 PM
Post by: jackelope on March 18, 2011, 01:40:31 PM
Post by: Bob33 on March 18, 2011, 01:59:48 PM
ouch! those numbers hurt :o Please don't do the numbers on my odds :ACRY:
The numbers do hurt. Unfortunately the good tags are very difficult to draw, even with lots of points. For a hunt with 30 permits and 1700 applicants, it doesn’t take much math expertise to see that 1670 won’t get drawn…
Having lots of points increases the odds, but it does not assure a tag.
Perhaps a better example is rolling a single die. Each roll gives you a one in six chance of getting a two. Rolling six times doesn't change the odds. Each time you have a one in six chance of rolling a two. Obviously the likelihood of getting a two goes up the more times you take the one in six chance, but not in the manner you indicated. Do the same math you did for everyone having 7.5 points (the assumed average) and you will see that everyone cannot have that high of a percentage chance of drawing.
If you roll a die six times, you have a better chance of getting a two from one of the six rolls than if you roll it only once.
Post by: HighCountryHunter88 on March 18, 2011, 02:09:03 PM
Post by: Dan-o on March 18, 2011, 04:11:46 PM
Post by: trophyhunt on March 19, 2011, 09:25:23 AM
Post by: Scott on March 19, 2011, 09:32:41 AM
I talked to a guy who's son had drew the dayton muzzy 3 or 4 years ago and he had 23 or 24 points and didn't draw the same tag his son did with i think 7. Last year I didn't draw the muzzy tag in the blues and I had 15 points, the 3 people that did draw had 2,4,and6 points. So anyone can draw with any amount of points, I wouldn't be shocked if 23 points didn't draw you a tag. Sorry for the bit of negativaty but I've been waiting since I was in my 20's for a tag like the blues and all it's done is give me the blues.Not true...i know a guy who dru..with at least 13 points last year in the blues! Thats in unit 154.
Post by: trophyhunt on March 19, 2011, 09:37:00 AM
Post by: Bob33 on March 19, 2011, 09:37:54 AM
So this topic is making me feel worse about my chances of getting drawn :bash:. From what I can gather with my 16 points this year I still don't have much of a chance this year???? Is this what I hearing??? what do you guys think? I will be applying for muzzy in the dayton and wenaha.With 16 points you have odds of drawing an elk permit somewhere between about 2% and 100%. What more can you expect, really? In 2010 there was one Lick Creek bull tag and about 550 applicants. How many people can draw that one tag?
There are quite a few applicants with lots of points putting in for the very best tags in places like the Blues. Someone with 1 point can draw. Odds with 16 points are 256 times better than someone with 1 point, but that does not guarantee a tag.
You have a much better chance with 16 points than the average applicant. Go for the tag you really want.
Post by: trophyhunt on March 19, 2011, 09:46:10 AM
Post by: trophyhunt on March 19, 2011, 10:04:02 AM
Post by: Bob33 on March 19, 2011, 10:06:19 AM
I know one thing for sure, if I do draw the wenaha tag for muzzy I will definetly hire Mntcook to set me up in the wilderness. Since I won't be putting in for the east after I do draw, I would want the experience to be the best it can be. I just wish he could guide in the dayton aswell. I will put the dayton as my first choice since it seems the biggest bulls come from there, the only draw back about drawing the dayton would be the fact that I couldn't experience the product that mntcook has in his area's.If you draw a Dayton tag, I suspect you'll have quite a few offers to help ;)
Post by: trophyhunt on March 19, 2011, 10:13:08 AM
Post by: SkookumHntr on March 19, 2011, 10:15:56 AM
whats not true?? I know people did draw with 13 points but in the wenaha west last year muzzy the 3 people had 2, 4, and 6 points. that came streight from the wdfw. Anyway, all this waiting has been a drag. I was just thinking about this years draw and thought about putting in for a ghost point for quality and putting in for a bull tag on the west side which should be a heck of alot easier to draw. Atleast then I can plan on hunting big bulls in the rut.-You might wanta check your info on that!
Post by: Magnum_Willys on March 19, 2011, 10:35:15 AM
In the end with 23 pts you still need to be lucky to draw, with less than 14 points you need to be real lucky.
Post by: trophyhunt on March 19, 2011, 01:24:36 PM
Post by: coachcw on March 19, 2011, 01:38:19 PM
Post by: bucklucky on March 19, 2011, 02:21:45 PM
whats not true?? I know people did draw with 13 points but in the wenaha west last year muzzy the 3 people had 2, 4, and 6 points. that came streight from the wdfw. Anyway, all this waiting has been a drag. I was just thinking about this years draw and thought about putting in for a ghost point for quality and putting in for a bull tag on the west side which should be a heck of alot easier to draw. Atleast then I can plan on hunting big bulls in the rut.-You might wanta check your info on that!
I was going to say I was pretty sure one of the muzzy guys had a ass load of points last year in the wenaha west ;)
Post by: bow4elk on March 19, 2011, 03:20:26 PM
I have 14 Oregon elk points, 11 Colorado elk points, and 7 Nevada elk points and a decent 6 point Wyoming bull on the wall, so a good Rosevelt is really apealing to me. Probably my only chance at a good Rosevelt. I have shot lots of raghorn Rosevelts but never a good one.
You're about 3 years out on a Wenaha elk tag in OR (keep after it!!!), about 10 years+ or so for CO elk (I have 16pts), NV is a crap shoot. I'd consider a west side Rosey hunt based on your desire to take a mature bull. Everyone is different but I'd rather take a 300" class Roosevelt than a 350" Rocky Mtn bull. Just me, I love big chunky Rosies.
Post by: Bob33 on March 19, 2011, 03:59:55 PM
I think the odds are even lower when you figure the effects of squaring the points - if you had 7 people with points from 1 through 7 they would have a total of 140 "chances" in the drawing. Take another 7 people each with 8 to 14 points and they would have 1100 "chances". The result is there are more "chances" in the pot than if just figuring everyone at 7.5 years squared.?
In the end with 23 pts you still need to be lucky to draw, with less than 14 points you need to be real lucky.
Pts Chances
8 64
9 81
10 100
11 121
12 144
13 169
14 196
Total 875
Post by: saylean on March 19, 2011, 04:07:03 PM
Post by: shedcrazy on March 19, 2011, 04:09:41 PM
Post by: bucklucky on March 19, 2011, 06:54:38 PM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 19, 2011, 07:02:16 PM
Post by: SkookumHntr on March 19, 2011, 07:20:50 PM
I know for a fact 1 did! lolwhats not true?? I know people did draw with 13 points but in the wenaha west last year muzzy the 3 people had 2, 4, and 6 points. that came streight from the wdfw. Anyway, all this waiting has been a drag. I was just thinking about this years draw and thought about putting in for a ghost point for quality and putting in for a bull tag on the west side which should be a heck of alot easier to draw. Atleast then I can plan on hunting big bulls in the rut.-You might wanta check your info on that!
I was going to say I was pretty sure one of the muzzy guys had a ass load of points last year in the wenaha west ;)
Post by: YoterHunter on March 20, 2011, 03:01:41 PM
Post by: 50CalJim on March 20, 2011, 06:35:41 PM
Post by: willapawapiti on March 20, 2011, 07:46:46 PM
Post by: Bob33 on March 20, 2011, 07:49:12 PM
okey. so what ive seen on this thred for points. i will have 24 points this year when i put in. i drew mud flow cow tag last year. so do i still have 24 points for qulity hunt.and if i drew a tag for that .do i still have 24 points for a bull tag.What category was the Mud Flow permit in? Whichever category is was, the points were reset to zero so you will have one point this year in that category if you apply in that category. The other categories are unchanged.
Post by: unc32 on March 20, 2011, 07:49:57 PM
http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
Previous years are available as well. From the summary level you'll note that during the 2009 harvest year there was an elk application with 22 points which was not drawn. Likewise for 4 applications with 21 points. If you're curious, below each species summary is a link to a PDF with a complete results breakdown. The data covers all hunts and summarizes entries at all points levels from first-year hunter to frustrated veteran. Quite a bit of data to sift through, but very interesting nonetheless. I haven't done so, but you should be able to use this additional data to find out where the applicants with 21 and 22 points applied and weren't drawn.
Based on the summary information you should be able to accurately determine the total number of "cards in the barrel" by species and figure the appropriate success rates. To be even more precise, with a bit more number extracting/crunching you should be able to boil this down by actual hunt. While past results will never be an accurate predictor of future results, this might give you some kind of an idea as to success rates for someone with 23 points. Hope this helps.
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 20, 2011, 07:57:35 PM
Post by: Bob33 on March 20, 2011, 08:19:44 PM
This data indicates there would have been 49,206 names in the hat. Someone with 23 points would have 529 names in the hat. For each of the 21 permits drawn, that individual would have approximately a 1% chance of being drawn.
Post by: SkookumHntr on March 21, 2011, 03:29:47 PM
Post by: Fetch em up on March 21, 2011, 03:57:17 PM
Margret or the Toutle, there are masher bulls everywhere in there. I got guys that tell me about all the 350 class bulls they see in there all the time :drool:
I hunted in Margaret 2 years in a row- 2007, and 2008, and there MIGHT be 1 or 2 350 bulls in there. For the most part, a 6x6 is a trophy there, and the biggest I saw wouldn't have broke 300! Go to the BLUES!!!
Post by: bucklucky on March 21, 2011, 08:36:34 PM
Margret or the Toutle, there are masher bulls everywhere in there. I got guys that tell me about all the 350 class bulls they see in there all the time :drool:
I hunted in Margaret 2 years in a row- 2007, and 2008, and there MIGHT be 1 or 2 350 bulls in there. For the most part, a 6x6 is a trophy there, and the biggest I saw wouldn't have broke 300! Go to the BLUES!!!
Obviousely you dont know what your looking at ..... JK I was beeing sarcastic, trust me I know what is on there. Top end bulls are in that 280-290 range with just a few in the 300's for the most part. Alot of 250 type bulls though. ;)
Post by: bucklucky on March 21, 2011, 08:37:26 PM
-That graph shows exactly how much of a joke the washington points system is. >:(
At leat everyone has a chance to draw, just better odds if you got a bagillion points is all.
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 21, 2011, 08:44:55 PM
Post by: Bob33 on March 21, 2011, 09:13:04 PM
Yea it's alot better than some of the other states where the tags go to the highest points. Atleast you have a small chance of drawing.That's the good and bad of our system. If our system were purely preference like some states, the person with 23 points would be guaranteed to draw the Dayton tag. The person with five points now would be guaranteed to draw in 23 years if no other hunters entered the pool other than those already in. For the first 22 years, his odds of drawing would be zero.
Post by: Kent Hunter on March 21, 2011, 11:40:51 PM
Post by: dreamingbig on March 22, 2011, 06:45:23 AM
Is this correct or do you believe that they have individual barrels for each specific hunt? i.e. The barrel for dayton quality bull for modern firearm is only filled with those who chose it as their first or second choices?
I thought the way it worked was the first scenario I described but it seems that some are suggesting it works like the second scenario?
Post by: trophyhunt on March 22, 2011, 06:51:24 AM
This is short but sweet. Buy a West side tag and put in for GMU 485 Green River. I work for the railroad and we run trains through there on the run to Ellensburg from Seattle. There are some MONSTER bulls in there. ALOT of bulls!!SSSHHHHHHH.
Post by: rasbo on March 22, 2011, 07:02:50 AM
This is short but sweet. Buy a West side tag and put in for GMU 485 Green River. I work for the railroad and we run trains through there on the run to Ellensburg from Seattle. There are some MONSTER bulls in there. ALOT of bulls!!side note kent hunter,when you go through the stampede tunnel and you see the words above the tunnel I did the drilling to put them in,it was a blast working off a train,
Post by: SkookumHntr on March 22, 2011, 08:43:11 AM
-Look at that graph, at that time 14pts were top without poacher points. 1 person drew with 14 points. I think thats *censored*!-That graph shows exactly how much of a joke the washington points system is. >:(
At leat everyone has a chance to draw, just better odds if you got a bagillion points is all.
Post by: MtnMuley on March 22, 2011, 12:15:51 PM
Post by: Alan K on March 22, 2011, 12:33:20 PM
Here are actual draw results for Hunt #2005, Dayton A in 2009:
This data indicates there would have been 49,206 names in the hat. Someone with 23 points would have 529 names in the hat. For each of the 21 permits drawn, that individual would have approximately a 1% chance of being drawn.
Hey Bob, where did you find that breakdown of info?
Post by: trophyhunt on March 22, 2011, 12:46:42 PM
I agree skookum. As I've mentioned before, I'd like a weighted point system where 50% of the tags go to those in the top 10-20% of the point pool. :twocents:I also agree that 50% of the tags should go to the ones with the most points, and yes I would think the same thing if I only had 2 points.
Post by: willapawapiti on March 22, 2011, 12:50:16 PM
Post by: SkookumHntr on March 22, 2011, 02:30:27 PM
- Ya and the guy with 1 point still has a chance! or a minumum amount of points to apply for certain hunts! Anything but what it is now! Getting the guys at the top of the points ladder drawn and back down to zero is the only way to actually increase the odds for everybody else!I agree skookum. As I've mentioned before, I'd like a weighted point system where 50% of the tags go to those in the top 10-20% of the point pool. :twocents:I also agree that 50% of the tags should go to the ones with the most points, and yes I would think the same thing if I only had 2 points.
Post by: arees on March 22, 2011, 02:49:23 PM
I have a question about the draw system. My understanding was that all applicants for a particular specie/type of permit (i.e. elk, quality bull) and user group (i.e. modern firearm) got put into the same barrel (point weighted). Then they start drawing names out of that barrel. If you are successfully drawn, then they look at what you selected for your 1st and 2nd choice. If your first choice is available then you are allocated to that hunt, if not then they go to your second choice. If your 1st and 2nd choice are both full when you are drawn then you become "not selected" even though there are other hunts still available. Then they draw the next name out of the barrel and keep doing so until all permits are allocated. You are never told if you were drawn but your hunt choices were full already (this would be good to know).
Is this correct or do you believe that they have individual barrels for each specific hunt? i.e. The barrel for dayton quality bull for modern firearm is only filled with those who chose it as their first or second choices?
I thought the way it worked was the first scenario I described but it seems that some are suggesting it works like the second scenario?
The hunt choices are explained here: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/wps_faq.html#11 (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/wps_faq.html#11)
Q: How do the hunt choices work?
A: When the drawing occurs, it is as if all of the applications for a species category are placed in a barrel. The computer spins the barrel by issuing random numbers to each application. The lowest random number that is issued to each application is the number used to order the applications from the lowest random number to the highest. It is the same as drawing cards from a barrel one by one. The application with the lowest random number is drawn first from the barrel and the hunt choices are checked. As each application comes up for consideration, the first hunt choice is checked to see if there is a permit left to be awarded. If there are none left, the second hunt choice is checked. If there is a permit available for that hunt choice, the application is selected for that hunt. If not, the process continues until all of the hunt choices on the application have been checked. If all of the hunt choices marked on the card have run out of permits, no permits are awarded to that application.
This means that if you get drawn for Quality Elk Hunts, all your choices for Quality Elk Hunts would be considered before anyone else's Quality Elk Hunt choices would be considered.
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 22, 2011, 03:15:16 PM
Like Bob33 said, the 23 points give him basically a 1% drawing chance.
Yet, if you look at the 2010 Dayton Quality results, it says the average points to draw was 8.17. Here in lies the bait in switch. It's just the average of the successful ones points. Not the true draw odds. People who see this 8.17 think that since I have 4 points now, only 4-5 more years to go. Wrong!!!! So they keep playing the game. WDFW bait taken.
If the WDFW actually posted what the the draw odds were, based on the applications received and squared, the revenue generating tool for the WDFW just went in the tank, I would venture to guess. There's the switch.
Realistically, it's better than playing the Mega Lotto odds wise from a chance at winning. But 1% vs .xxxx% for the Mega is still a minuscule chance at winning either.
And yes, guilty as charged!!! I keep playing the game thinking that someday I might pull the hail Mary yet I understand that I will more than likely go to my grave with a train load of points in the deer, elk and OIL tag categories. Every year I say "I'm done" but I keep getting sucked in every year on a gee, what if..........
It is cheap entertainment on top of the license fees for the what if factor though. :chuckle:
Post by: NRA4LIFE on March 22, 2011, 03:21:17 PM
Post by: Bob33 on March 22, 2011, 03:39:33 PM
6X6, you hit the nail on the head. I have been harping about this on other threads. When you do some simple calculations on draw odds and consider the number of tags and how many people are applying, most of us will never draw a deer, quality elk or OIL tag in our lifetimes. And yet yes, we all still put in because "someone has to win", right? I'd bet that in most cases, your odds are better by buying a couple raffle tickets every year that facing the odds of the draw.Most quality tags are OIL, if you are lucky. More likely, they are NOIL. The addiction continues...
Post by: arees on March 22, 2011, 04:04:26 PM
The bottom line is that someone with 26 points had about a 0.0707% chance of being drawn. This was only 676 times better than a first time applicant who has about a 0.0001% chance. I hope this convinces you all to just give up now. It will improve my odds, but not by much :).
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 22, 2011, 04:36:19 PM
But hey, it's a chance.
WDFW wins $$$$$$$$$$$$
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 22, 2011, 04:39:22 PM
6X6, you hit the nail on the head. I have been harping about this on other threads. When you do some simple calculations on draw odds and consider the number of tags and how many people are applying, most of us will never draw a deer, quality elk or OIL tag in our lifetimes. And yet yes, we all still put in because "someone has to win", right? I'd bet that in most cases, your odds are better by buying a couple raffle tickets every year that facing the odds of the draw.Most quality tags are OIL, if you are lucky. More likely, they are NOIL. The addiction continues...
An antlerless tag is darn near an OIL, effective last year. :chuckle:
Post by: FWilliams on March 22, 2011, 04:55:47 PM
6X6, you hit the nail on the head. I have been harping about this on other threads. When you do some simple calculations on draw odds and consider the number of tags and how many people are applying, most of us will never draw a deer, quality elk or OIL tag in our lifetimes. And yet yes, we all still put in because "someone has to win", right? I'd bet that in most cases, your odds are better by buying a couple raffle tickets every year that facing the odds of the draw.
and than there are the guys that just keep drawing tags every 3 or 4 years....... ;)
Post by: Pathfinder101 on March 22, 2011, 05:11:11 PM
I tried to put together a spreadsheet to take a swag a the odds for elk. I used WDFW's data from here: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html) just using the number of applicants which ignores the effects of group applications. This also ignores whether you get your first choice (or any choice if all your choices are already taken). The numbers I get are hopefully attached to this post. It is also completely meaningless now that WDFW has added so many more choices.
The bottom line is that someone with 26 points had about a 0.0707% chance of being drawn. This was only 676 times better than a first time applicant who has about a 0.0001% chance. I hope this convinces you all to just give up now. It will improve my odds, but not by much :).
I am not a mathematican, but that can't possibly be right, can it? I mean, if you have 23 points, you are much more likely than that to draw. Does this table assume that everyone in the state is putting in for the exact same hunt you are?
If you only have a 0.07% chance of being drawn, then statistically it would take you over 100 years to draw the tag, right? :dunno:
Post by: trophyhunt on March 22, 2011, 05:14:56 PM
Post by: bucklucky on March 22, 2011, 05:23:24 PM
Post by: huntnnw on March 22, 2011, 07:12:49 PM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 22, 2011, 07:35:45 PM
Post by: bucklucky on March 22, 2011, 07:42:44 PM
No point system probably won't happen. Some people need incentive to turn in law breakers. The current system seems to be fine as long as their is no shady buisness.
Catch a poacher get a tag ?? I wonder how many poaachers get cought and convicted where there are points given to an individual each year. Tell you what , that would be some good incentive if they gave me a tag for turning in a poacher. Could really care less about the points.
Post by: Alan K on March 22, 2011, 07:45:27 PM
Post by: Alan K on March 22, 2011, 07:48:33 PM
Post by: Bob33 on March 22, 2011, 07:59:16 PM
I don't understand it. The odds are better than what is shown there.I tried to put together a spreadsheet to take a swag a the odds for elk. I used WDFW's data from here: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html) just using the number of applicants which ignores the effects of group applications. This also ignores whether you get your first choice (or any choice if all your choices are already taken). The numbers I get are hopefully attached to this post. It is also completely meaningless now that WDFW has added so many more choices.
The bottom line is that someone with 26 points had about a 0.0707% chance of being drawn. This was only 676 times better than a first time applicant who has about a 0.0001% chance. I hope this convinces you all to just give up now. It will improve my odds, but not by much :).
I am not a mathematican, but that can't possibly be right, can it? I mean, if you have 23 points, you are much more likely than that to draw. Does this table assume that everyone in the state is putting in for the exact same hunt you are?
If you only have a 0.07% chance of being drawn, then statistically it would take you over 100 years to draw the tag, right? :dunno:
Post by: Bob33 on March 22, 2011, 08:04:12 PM
Dog - Washington's Lottery TV commercial (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5XBc74O42Y#ws)
Post by: huntnnw on March 22, 2011, 08:42:14 PM
Post by: bobcat on March 22, 2011, 08:42:25 PM
Post by: dscubame on March 22, 2011, 08:43:14 PM
Post by: bobcat on March 22, 2011, 08:46:10 PM
Post by: huntnnw on March 22, 2011, 08:52:09 PM
Post by: Skyvalhunter on March 22, 2011, 08:53:47 PM
Post by: dscubame on March 22, 2011, 08:56:56 PM
Our draw system was one of the best until they screwed it up last year with all the unnecessary categories, and giving out free points to people in all the additional categories was unfair to those who had recently drawn a permit and had their points go to zero. The only thing that would make it better would be to do away with most, or all, of the general season hunts and add thousands more permits. Then many of the "never in a lifetime" hunts just might become "once in a lifetime."
I like the fact that I can put in for other tags and keep my points for my desirable hunts.
Post by: bobcat on March 22, 2011, 08:58:21 PM
yup! and WDFW says its was in response to increase draw odds :bash: please explain!! The way to increase was toup the price per permit and limit it to 2 choices! or 1!
Well, NOW they are increasing the price! If only they could have just done that last year and left the draw system as it was. :bash:
Post by: bobcat on March 22, 2011, 09:01:51 PM
Our draw system was one of the best until they screwed it up last year with all the unnecessary categories, and giving out free points to people in all the additional categories was unfair to those who had recently drawn a permit and had their points go to zero. The only thing that would make it better would be to do away with most, or all, of the general season hunts and add thousands more permits. Then many of the "never in a lifetime" hunts just might become "once in a lifetime."
I like the fact that I can put in for other tags and keep my points for my desirable hunts.
I like that too, but I'd be willing to sacrifice that in order to improve the quality AND quantity of our deer and elk herds. Of course, I do realize there is the issue of tribal hunting which does make it hard for us to cut back on our hunting just so they can kill more and bigger animals.
Post by: Bob33 on March 22, 2011, 09:05:59 PM
Post by: dscubame on March 22, 2011, 09:07:18 PM
I think if more people knew how poor their odds were for most of the good hunts, they would not put as much money into the drawings. I believe last year's changes made it even worse for several of the categories like quality elk and antlerless elk.
I spend more on lunch on a daily basis. Really?
Post by: bobcat on March 22, 2011, 09:08:33 PM
I think if more people knew how poor their odds were for most of the good hunts, they would not put as much money into the drawings. I believe last year's changes made it even worse for several of the categories like quality elk and antlerless elk.
I think they just might apply for hunts that they have a more realistic chance of drawing.
Post by: huntnnw on March 22, 2011, 09:10:18 PM
Post by: bobcat on March 22, 2011, 09:11:57 PM
the hardest tag in the state to draw became the antlerless moose tag :chuckle:
That is not far from the truth! :bash:
They didn't need an additional antlerless moose category! There should only be ONE moose category! :bash:
Post by: Bob33 on March 22, 2011, 09:13:03 PM
If you have unlimited funds, your odds for several species are probably better buying raffle tickets.I think if more people knew how poor their odds were for most of the good hunts, they would not put as much money into the drawings. I believe last year's changes made it even worse for several of the categories like quality elk and antlerless elk.
I spend more on lunch on a daily basis. Really?
Post by: dscubame on March 22, 2011, 09:14:07 PM
If you have unlimited funds, your odds for several species are probably better buying raffle tickets.I think if more people knew how poor their odds were for most of the good hunts, they would not put as much money into the drawings. I believe last year's changes made it even worse for several of the categories like quality elk and antlerless elk.
I spend more on lunch on a daily basis. Really?
Not unlimited?? just enough for lunch every day.
Post by: Bob33 on March 22, 2011, 09:15:25 PM
:chuckle:If you have unlimited funds, your odds for several species are probably better buying raffle tickets.I think if more people knew how poor their odds were for most of the good hunts, they would not put as much money into the drawings. I believe last year's changes made it even worse for several of the categories like quality elk and antlerless elk.
I spend more on lunch on a daily basis. Really?
Not unlimited?? just enough for lunch every day.
Post by: Magnum_Willys on March 22, 2011, 09:23:22 PM
Post by: NRA4LIFE on March 23, 2011, 12:05:40 PM
Not really. Consider the situation where your calculated odds were 1% in a draw. If there were 100 tags for that unit and 5000 applicants, if you multiplied by 100, then your chances would be 100% with the multiplying. Definitely not the case.
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 23, 2011, 04:49:11 PM
Magnum,
Not really. Consider the situation where your calculated odds were 1% in a draw. If there were 100 tags for that unit and 5000 applicants, if you multiplied by 100, then your chances would be 100% with the multiplying. Definitely not the case.
To expand on what NRA was saying.
If there were 100 tags available in a given draw and there were 5000 applicants (and those 5000 applicants with points squared, came to 50,000 applications in the draw).
And lets say we are talking about the person who has 10 points in the draw.
100(tags) divided by 50000(applications) = .2% per application in the draw.
.2% X 100(how many times the 10 point holder's name is in the hat) = 20%
20% chance of drawing the tag is what that 10 point holder has bestowed upon themselves in this scenario.
I'll give another example.......
2009 Peaches A tag:
129 tags
3626 Applicants
67,738 Applications in the draw
129 / 67,738 = .1904% per Application
The 642 1 point applicants had .19% chance of drawing. And there was 1 very lucky person!!!
The 385 5 pointers had a 4.76% chance. 13 of which scored!
The 36 10 pointers had a 19.04% chance. 13 of these also hit the home run. 36% success here way exceeded the 19.04% odds.
The 3 who had 13 points (32.18%) and the 2 who had 16 points (48.75%) went spike hunting.
The moral, as stated previously in this thread, the more tags available the better the odds.
What needs to be considered is, for example, 10% of the tags should go to the individual(s) with the most points. 1st selection drives where they would pull there tag. Have a draw for the top point app's if the app's exceed the 10% tag number.
The remaining 90% and the top 10% who did not get there tag awarded could stay in the system and draw as presently set up.
This would fix the States perception of chance at drawing. Because right now, if the top point people do not get drawn it continues to send the odds of drawing spiraling down.
I know this. I have tracked this stuff since 1999 in 3 other GMU's beyond Peaches. As my points in the bank go up, my odds have not always gone up likewise. Some years go up very minor, others take a 3-5% jump. Next year might only be a 1.5% jump.
Permits available, in Peaches for example in 01 and 03 which were under 100, have had an affect on this. What also had a greater affect on this were the years that a lot of top point holders were successful. 2009, for example, was not a good year for plucking out top point holders to help out the odds down the line.
It will be interesting to see what the tag choice changes did to the odds when the WDFW posts their 2010 draw stats. My gut says it got a whole lot worse in most if not all areas. But it won't be significant in the first year because those 1 point people really do not have a whole lot of "disruption" to the draw odds. Over time, as their points grow, it most definitely will have a negative affect on the odds for the people near the top and deserving of that tag.
Post by: arees on March 24, 2011, 09:14:18 AM
I put together the numbers again to estimate you chances of having your choices looked at. As I read the WDFW site, all the applications for elk tags were in the same bucket with first time applicants having one ticket in the bucket and 10 time applicants having 100 tickets etc. Tickets are pulled one at a time and then all the choices of that application are checked to see if they are still available.
This means that some of the high point applicants shown for Peaches Ridge that did not get that tag may have gotten some other tag. They might not have had Peaches Ridge as their first choice or they may have been drawn after all of the Peaches Ridge tags were given away and got one of their other choices.
So here is the table again showing approximate odds of having your application considered. The actual odds are somewhat better because this assumes constant odds for each of the draws while your odds improve slightly each time another applicant is drawn and pulled out of the pool. It also doesn't account for people who will be drawn but find that all of their choices are all ready taken. There are too many variables to do this with high accuracy.
Finally, this is just the approximate odds for having your application drawn, you may still find that all of your choices are already taken. It does show that the high point people have a high chance of having their choices considered, but if you put Peaches Ridge as your only choice, you may find that you are drawn but still get nothing.
Post by: NRA4LIFE on March 24, 2011, 09:21:24 AM
Post by: Ridgerunner on March 24, 2011, 09:42:29 AM
Post by: NRA4LIFE on March 24, 2011, 09:49:09 AM
Quote
Quit applying, the odds of drawing are terrible, save your money. I love all the efforts to try to figure out draw odds, I've got my own too but in the end I think it takes a little luck still.
That coming from a guy who's almost out of OIL tags. Sheesh. There's another poster on this thread who's the luckiest SOB in WA draws. 2 or 3 cow tags and a bull tag to my zip, zero, nada.
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 24, 2011, 09:50:50 AM
Post by: STIKNSTRINGBOW on March 24, 2011, 10:00:51 AM
I have been applying for tags since before the "points" system started, getting my refund check was usually my way of saving fuel money for hunting season...
I drew Elk permits the first year, and with 6 points the second time, and 6 points the third time, both times on my first choice (336,340)
I drew deer in 4 different hunts during the same time period, and Bear last year (5 points)
OIL permits still elude me, and I really don't expect to be drawn, but when I get 6 points for Elk again, I will apply for Multi, and hope to get drawn for Observatory again....
Peaches would be cool, and it has been my second choice, but I do not know it as well as the Manastash....
Post by: Ridgerunner on March 24, 2011, 10:03:06 AM
Post by: NRA4LIFE on March 24, 2011, 10:17:20 AM
Post by: Alan K on March 24, 2011, 11:13:38 AM
Post by: Alan K on March 24, 2011, 11:31:27 AM
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 24, 2011, 11:36:52 AM
Also, where do I find the same breakdown of information like that for 2009 for previous years? I can't find out how to get to it aside from using the link someone provided on here.http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/ (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/)
Post by: bobcat on March 24, 2011, 11:43:17 AM
When does the WDFW generally post the permit summary information? I don't think there is any question the new application categories are going to shake things up a bit; I'm curious if they'll have it out in time so that we can look over the data before our applications for this year are due.
It's been up for a long time: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/ (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/)
All I'm waiting on now is the harvest report for 2010.
Post by: Alan K on March 24, 2011, 11:43:36 AM
Average points to the winner doesn't give you squat for your draw odds. You need the more in depth breakdown like the 2009 summary by species and then individual hunt.
Post by: 6x6in6 on March 24, 2011, 12:20:56 PM
Yeah, been there and went through that. Now I see where the link came from for the 2009 breakdown, but I'm not seeing the same information for years prior. Was the same breakdown, as far as amount of points each applicant had etc. like in the 2009 data done for the other years, or are people who say they've been tracking their draw odds through the years using a different method of calculating it?The by year data is in the link I posted just above Bobcat's.
Average points to the winner doesn't give you squat for your draw odds. You need the more in depth breakdown like the 2009 summary by species and then individual hunt.
You have to click the year first on the column in the left than dig your way through to find the draw results.
It's kind of messed up on how you navigate your way through to get to the draw results.
Post by: NRA4LIFE on March 24, 2011, 12:37:59 PM
Post by: Alan K on March 24, 2011, 03:31:19 PM
If you guys who can figure it out don't mind, could you post links to the same information for like 2006, 2007, & 2008?
Thanks. . .
Post by: trophyhunt on March 24, 2011, 06:50:36 PM
Post by: jharstad on March 28, 2011, 03:23:22 PM
Post by: Alan K on March 28, 2011, 03:38:11 PM
Gah, still can't figure it out. . . This is the information I'm after, and for each specific hunt as well, which you get by clicking the link below the species: http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html (http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/harvest/2009/species_summary.html)
If you guys who can figure it out don't mind, could you post links to the same information for like 2006, 2007, & 2008?
Thanks. . .
Anyone? I've got all my odds figured for hunts I'm interested in with the 2009 data, would like to figure it for other years and see how it's changed. Thanks guys.