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Big Game Hunting => Elk Hunting => Topic started by: heavy hauler on May 19, 2011, 07:51:02 PM


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Title: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: heavy hauler on May 19, 2011, 07:51:02 PM
does anyone think they are going to draw a elk tag and where?  i think i may draw a wenaha  bow tag.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Webfoot on May 19, 2011, 08:02:29 PM
After 16 years of NOT SELECTED I don't even think about it.

John
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: fair-chase on May 19, 2011, 08:06:06 PM
As long as the same number of people applied this year as last I have a guaranteed cow tag in the pot. As for quality I put in for the long shot "go big or go home" tags.  :chuckle:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: deerdog on May 19, 2011, 08:14:33 PM
I think I will draw something somewhere just not sure which state!  8)
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: bowsandhose on May 19, 2011, 08:18:06 PM
i always feel lucky  :)
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Huntbear on May 19, 2011, 08:20:02 PM
I always feel lucky.   :IBCOOL:


I will get my cow tag this year.. lol...  Hoping for my quality deer...

 
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: benhuntin on May 19, 2011, 08:22:08 PM
My wife is sure she is drawin a moose tag with 1 point
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: bobcat on May 19, 2011, 08:36:15 PM
I'm pretty sure I'm going to get a moose tag and a sheep tag this year.  :rolleyes:   After 15 years of applying, how could I not? Seriously I do have high hopes for the January cow elk permit I applied for. The best chance of all is the August cow elk hunt I put my dad in for. He's got 10 points and according to my calculations, he's got a 70% chance of drawing it. So I'm already planning on taking a week off work to help him with that. I'd really like to draw the quality deer but with a 1 in 10 chance my hopes aren't too high, but it's still a very good possibility.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: rotty33 on May 19, 2011, 08:59:23 PM
I am on pins and needles. But my past experiences have taught me that I probably should know better! :o
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: heavy hauler on May 19, 2011, 09:04:26 PM
hard to say right now how much time i will have for a quality elk hunt this year,  thats why i think i may draw.  i should have put in for points. o well, i wont be to broken hearted  if i draw :chuckle:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: steelhead13 on May 19, 2011, 09:16:44 PM
I will probally draw everything i have ever wanted. This since i am going to be in school and can't miss any days.. Probaly just put all my 15 moose points to waste.  Ya right!
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: bobcat on May 19, 2011, 09:19:34 PM
Yeah that's what I'm worried about- drawing too many permits this year. 
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: rosscrazyelk on May 19, 2011, 09:26:43 PM
I am very optomistic. but everything is crossed.    My friend who is disabled put in for the little naches hunt in start of oct. I think she has a good shot.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: alecvg on May 19, 2011, 09:27:42 PM
No.  I honestly am not, I only applied for one tag, kind of hope I don't get it to be honest, since I can't take any more time off for hunting this year with the Colorado trip we have planned. 
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: WDFW Hates ME!!! on May 19, 2011, 09:37:01 PM
I only put in for 1 elk permit this year. A bull permit.
 
Points for quality and antlerless.
 
Hopeing for Deer... COuld care less if it is Buck or Quality.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: bobcat on May 19, 2011, 09:52:18 PM
Points?  Man I'm in for everything this year. No points option for me.
 
Only thing I did the points option for was the multi-season elk.
 
I'm sure glad people do that though- makes my chances a lot better.   :IBCOOL:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Camp David on May 19, 2011, 09:58:02 PM
I'll be out of the country for a while...points only. :'(
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: carpsniperg2 on May 19, 2011, 10:48:03 PM
RimRock :IBCOOL:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: smartazz171 on May 20, 2011, 01:02:15 AM
Keep your heads up guys I drew a peaches ridge tag with only 3 points last year (and by the wdfw results in unit 336 I was only 1 of 10 guys to get a 6x6 or better).  I'm not gloating (alright alittle) but point is you never know who's years it will be!   :archery_smiley:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: trophyhunt on May 20, 2011, 05:18:05 AM
After 16 years of NOT SELECTED I don't even think about it.

John
I'm in the same boat as you, except I'm definetly thinking about it.  It's too bad our odds still are very bad with 16 points.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: arrowflinger on May 20, 2011, 06:00:55 AM
Always feeling lucky.....just tired of the disappointment. Fingers crossed and hoping for a Quality buck
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: pianoman9701 on May 20, 2011, 07:27:44 AM
I put in for a 2nd elk in the Toledo unit. It's the only tag I put in for and I have no extra points. I'm going to get it.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: grundy53 on May 20, 2011, 08:04:47 AM
No I'm not
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Lucky Eric on May 20, 2011, 08:25:08 AM
I hope I don't get drawn this year as I won't be going hunting this year anyway.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: 7mag. on May 21, 2011, 10:55:14 AM
I've been putting in for points only for years. This is the first year that I am actually trying to draw, so I am optimistic. But with only 8 points, my chances are pretty slim.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Alan K on May 21, 2011, 11:08:00 AM
I always feel lucky!
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: longknife on May 21, 2011, 12:13:20 PM
I have a lucky feeling my 13 yr daughter will draw something.... I apply for anything i can so she gets hooked on hunting like i did!
Its kinda odd how she loves it more than me already, without bagging anything yet!!!

Took her with me archery hunting, when she was 11. Had wounded a doe, tracked her, and hit her in the neck with my 2nd shot. The doe dropped, and started screamming! Told my daughter to look away, and plug her ears. (her first time watching me kill an animal)
She lifts her head, and says "Why dad,,,YOU NAILED HER!!"
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 21, 2011, 12:25:51 PM
I'm feeling a blues bull tag or a goat tag coming my way this year. 
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: jjhunter on May 21, 2011, 12:29:54 PM
I believe in the "law of averages" RR......at least you have an MT tag!  :chuckle:  Some guys would cash in a butt-load of CO points for a guaranteed tag hunting giant mule deer?  :chuckle:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: rebal69972 on May 21, 2011, 04:54:54 PM
i put in for several hunts but with 0 points my high hopes are about knee level. but on the other hand i have my lucky horse shoe out. i guess its lucky for me not so much for the horse
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Ridgeratt on May 21, 2011, 05:27:27 PM
Points?  Man I'm in for everything this year. No points option for me.
 
Only thing I did the points option for was the multi-season elk.
 
I'm sure glad people do that though- makes my chances a lot better.   :IBCOOL:

Wow a few days ago you were the biggest Naysayer and Dooms Dayer on here!
Now your as giddy as a high school girl going to the prom.
   :dunno:

I ghosted everything but a quality Deer. So I can be a scout for my hunting's  buddy
Multi-elk tag.

Who knows he may just get lucky now and then.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: bobcat on May 21, 2011, 05:53:12 PM
Points?  Man I'm in for everything this year. No points option for me.
 
Only thing I did the points option for was the multi-season elk.
 
I'm sure glad people do that though- makes my chances a lot better.   :IBCOOL:

Wow a few days ago you were the biggest Naysayer and Dooms Dayer on here!
Now your as giddy as a high school girl going to the prom.
   :dunno:

I ghosted everything but a quality Deer. So I can be a scout for my hunting's  buddy
Multi-elk tag.

Who knows he may just get lucky now and then.

Not sure exactly what you're talking about, but I do try to point out the true odds on some of these special permits, when people start talking like just because they have 10 points, drawing the permit they want should be guaranteed. The thing is, I apply for the hunts with the best odds of drawing, so I feel like I do have a chance. Other people always pick nothing but the hunts with the worst odds, and then wonder why they haven't drawn anything in 15 years.

Oh, and if I seem to be "giddy" it's because I am! This is the best time of the year for me. I'm like a kid at Christmas time, just waiting to find out what this hunting season has in store for me. I'm pretty certain that between my dad, uncle, brother, and I, that one of us is going to draw a good hunt. At the minimum, a good cow elk hunt. So I'm definitely anticipating meat in the freezer this year. So I'm really looking forward to that, since the last time I put elk meat in the freezer was three years ago. I can't afford to do any out of state hunts, so this is all I've got.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Ridgerunner on May 21, 2011, 06:18:03 PM
JJ, I'm already planning on cashing out in CO next year buddy, time to get a BIG muley. 
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Wea300mag on May 21, 2011, 06:41:00 PM
This is my year, of course I've been saying that for the last 25 years :chuckle:.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: D-Rock425 on May 22, 2011, 07:01:25 AM
I think it could be my dads year he has 8 points for archery elk.  I would think he should be getting close to drawing he put in for peaches ridge and observatory
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: YoterHunter on May 22, 2011, 07:07:04 AM
i feel lucky .but not with the draw system.it sucks.but i still have to try. :dunno:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: piledup on May 22, 2011, 07:39:46 AM
I feel lucky...since I paid more for it.  :rolleyes:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: bobcat on May 22, 2011, 08:20:18 AM
I think it could be my dads year he has 8 points for archery elk.  I would think he should be getting close to drawing he put in for peaches ridge and observatory

His odds with 8 points are 71% for Observatory, and 33% for Peaches Ridge.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: OlympicElkJunkie on May 22, 2011, 08:53:45 AM
I decided to take a crack at the new archery bull tag in Skokomish this year. Have no idea what the odds are since it is a new tag, but I'm feeling lucky! I have no idea what to expect on that hunt but will certainly do my best to do it justice should I have the good fortune to draw it.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: STIKNSTRINGBOW on May 22, 2011, 10:42:33 AM
I decided to take a crack at the new archery bull tag in Skokomish this year. Have no idea what the odds are since it is a new tag, but I'm feeling lucky! I have no idea what to expect on that hunt but will certainly do my best to do it justice should I have the good fortune to draw it.
I applied for that also, but with only 3pts..  :dunno:
some lucky dogs gonna win it !!
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Alan K on May 22, 2011, 11:00:09 AM
I was disappointed to see that the September rifle Skok tag is gone this year. . . The hunter last year probably raised hell to the game department about all the tribal hunters out there with rifles that time of year and they decided to just avoid that situation all together. My crazy conspiracy theory.  :chuckle:  :tinfoil:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: link on May 22, 2011, 08:27:36 PM
I know its been on here before, but how do you find your odds taking into account everyones points? Just curious what my odds are for the late desert rifle buck hunt with 14 points.
I never get my hopes up for the draws in this state. I have been pretty lucky in the past though. I drew a goat tag in 99, with just a point or two. I drew peaches ridge bull tag twice in four years, first time rifle with 5 points and then the muzzy tag with 4 points. No luck with deer though.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: bobcat on May 22, 2011, 09:14:10 PM
I know its been on here before, but how do you find your odds taking into account everyones points? Just curious what my odds are for the late desert rifle buck hunt with 14 points.

You have to know the number of applicants from the year before, and the number of points they each had. It's complicated, but the Excel spreadsheet I have shows odds of 1% for the Desert permit with 14 points.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Elkstuffer on May 22, 2011, 09:32:52 PM
I wasn't feeling lucky, I'm points rich and tag poor, but then I drew what I feel is one of the best tags in the state last month. The Hunter Ed Incentive any elk tag for Region 3. It includes units 336-368, all general and permit seasons using all 3 weapons. I feel extremely fortunate. Maybe my luck is changing. I'll need all the luck I can get for this hunt. Needless to say I bought points for everything this year so as not to interfere with the elk hunt.

Good luck to everyone else. I hope you all get what you put in for!
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: carpsniperg2 on May 22, 2011, 09:35:15 PM
Sounds like a great tag :drool: Hope you can do good with it.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Rhinoron247 on May 23, 2011, 11:55:30 AM
It's gonna be a twofer year for me and the Mrs.  she's in for a rifle bull in the peaches then observatory with 11 pts.  I'm in both areas with 7 pts.  Feeling pretty lucky this year.  Everything is in place to score big.

 Have been pts only for 12 years for both of us on the moose, goat, sheep tags.  So this year we are opening a moose option.  Fingers crossed.

Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: huntnnw on May 24, 2011, 11:44:27 PM
I am due..its been a couple of years
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: sled on May 25, 2011, 12:25:21 AM
I know its been on here before, but how do you find your odds taking into account everyones points? Just curious what my odds are for the late desert rifle buck hunt with 14 points.

You have to know the number of applicants from the year before, and the number of points they each had. It's complicated, but the Excel spreadsheet I have shows odds of 1% for the Desert permit with 14 points.
What about the odds of 9 points for muzzy observatory, and tanuem Elk?
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: bobcat on May 25, 2011, 12:42:02 AM
Observatory- 25%
Peaches Ridge- 13%
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: wlandrum on May 25, 2011, 06:26:09 AM
I feel lucky each year or else I wouldn't put in.     :) :) :) :)
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: trophyhunt on May 25, 2011, 06:30:45 AM
I think it could be my dads year he has 8 points for archery elk.  I would think he should be getting close to drawing he put in for peaches ridge and observatory
My dad had 11 points last year for the same archery elk tag and didn't draw.  My cousin had 2 points and drew.  I hope your dad draws, my dad is a disabled hunter and he puts in for the disabled little naches tag with way less people in it and he still hasn't drawn that with 11 points.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: jackmaster on May 25, 2011, 06:39:11 AM
I AM GONNA DRAW ALL THE TAGS, so sorry fellas no tags for anyone else maybe next year, seriously if my son draws a good tag, deer or elk, or both i will be fine with that, its his last year as a youth hunter, i am sure like all dads on here it would be kick ass if he drew that youth moose tag, i will crap down my leg if that happens
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Kowsrule30 on May 25, 2011, 11:17:41 AM
I doubt I'll draw anything..... But you never know.... Drew a bull tag with 4 points and a few cow tags with 0,1, and 2 points.....  :dunno:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: C-Money on May 25, 2011, 11:23:08 AM
I have never drawn a Bull, or cow tag and I have a crap load if points. :'( Maybe this year? I also want a monster muley tag! A plethora of points will get you nothing, you need a little luck too! Wife and I have our fingers crossed!
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: HUNT on May 25, 2011, 11:27:04 AM
Yep --  I do feel lucky.   ;)
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: hunter-4-life on May 25, 2011, 11:30:39 AM
I hope I get lucky. I am in for the Mountain View and Wenaha east Muzzy permit with 5 points. I got a good feeling. With a little luck like I had in 2006 when I drew the Peaches Ridge rifle tag with 2 points I should draw this year.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: jstone on May 25, 2011, 03:30:35 PM
In 2006 got 1 of 8 clockum archery tags. Got a nice 5x6 bull. First Bull... Also got the Late Entiat Archery tag. ot a basket 4x4. Buddy got his first archery deer.. Awesome year.. Hope this year works out like that.. :)
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Pathfinder101 on May 25, 2011, 03:50:33 PM
Yeah, I feel something funny this year. I have 10 points for elk, and the tag I put as my #1 choice only had about 150 applicants last year for 4 tags, so it's not outside the realm of possiblity.

Problem is that I just started a new job (teaching high school), and September is about the worst month to try to take any time off, so I'll be going after school and weekends if I draw.  That "funny feeling" I have may be dread. 
Feels like if I draw this year I am either going to end up fired, or eating tag soup... ;)

3 points for Antelope in Montana.  Good God.  Had no idea that it was that damn hard to get a speedgoat tag there... :bash:  I better draw this year or I am going to spend my summer picketing FWP headquarters in Helena... >:(
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Woodchuck on May 25, 2011, 04:13:51 PM
I am feeling lucky this year and if I am right I will be having a new hat made  8)
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Bigshooter on May 25, 2011, 05:31:36 PM
Bobcat,
Can you tell me the odds of drawing a Margaret or Toutle bull muzzy tag is?  And the same for cows?  With 7pts.

Thanks
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: grundy53 on May 25, 2011, 07:09:52 PM
I am feeling lucky this year and if I am right I will be having a new hat made  8)

Out of @$$?  :tung: :chuckle: :chuckle:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: bobcat on May 25, 2011, 10:59:57 PM
Bobcat,
Can you tell me the odds of drawing a Margaret or Toutle bull muzzy tag is?  And the same for cows?  With 7pts.

Thanks

Toutle bull: 20%
Margaret bull: 4%

Toutle cow: 59%
Margaret cow: 49%
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Bigshooter on May 26, 2011, 10:10:52 AM
Thanks bobcat.
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Pathfinder101 on May 26, 2011, 10:13:54 AM
I am feeling lucky this year and if I am right I will be having a new hat made  8)

 :chuckle: :chuckle:
Title: Re: anyone feeling lucky this year?
Post by: Woodchuck on May 26, 2011, 10:19:53 AM
I am feeling lucky this year and if I am right I will be having a new hat made  8)

Out of @$$?  :tung: :chuckle: :chuckle:
absolutely  :chuckle:
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