The absurdity of WDFW draw system

[idahohuntr]

Purchasing points- I don't like the idea. It would end up becoming a rich mans special permit. Even if you limited it to purchasing (Example- 5 points per year) you would end up with too many high point holders. I think it would muddy up the draw system. That is what the govenors tag and raffle tags are for. You can pay to play as much as your budget can afford.

I wasn't suggesting you be allowed to buy multiple points per year.  I am saying keep the system the way it is, except limit number of hunt choices/applications somewhat like Idaho.  Maybe something like you get one "quality" choice (deer, elk, sheep, moose, or goat) and one antlerless choice etc.  However, still allow guys to build points by putting in for a ghost point option like you can do now if you don't want to actually enter the draw.

I am fortunate that I can buy points for many states but I agree with you that it should not be a "rich mans" sport/permit.  I understand the benefits and revenue associated with governors tags, raffle tags, point systems etc...but at the end of the day when you have raffles/point systems etc. you are basically saying unless you can commit the resources (money) to buy tickets and apps for many years you will be at a disadvantage.  Wildlife is owned by all of the people, not just the wealthy and while I prefer raffles/points over outright auctioning a tag that only 4 friggin people can bid on I still think the little guy is at a disadvantage to accessing what should be a public resource equally available to folks regardless of their income/wealth.   

[steeleywhopper]

Maybe we could put some heat to the WDFW and make them show us the "true" odds. Every casino game and lottery style game will have the true odds posted somewhere, why not this "lottery". Just saying....

[idahohuntr]

They provide the information you need to calculate odds yourself...but it is not a super straightforward process.  Is there a specific hunt you are interested in knowing the odds of (for a given number of points)?

[dreamingbig]

I haven't read all 182 posts so I apologize if this has already been said but here goes...

Each year your draw odds get worse even though you get another point.  If you stop and do the probability/math/statistics it gets really depressing. 

[steeleywhopper]

They provide the information you need to calculate odds yourself...but it is not a super straightforward process.  Is there a specific hunt you are interested in knowing the odds of (for a given number of points)?

Not interested myself, I really don't care to know the true odds of drawing a tag. I would like to believe in my own small world that I might draw another East side bull tag sometime before 2089. Figured the guys trying to bust their brains to figure out the odds might just want to have WDFW put them out for all to see.

[6x6in6]

Maybe we could put some heat to the WDFW and make them show us the "true" odds. Every casino game and lottery style game will have the true odds posted somewhere, why not this "lottery". Just saying....

It is impossible to truly calculate the draw odds this state has with there present system, except for the hunts that offer only 1 tag in that particular draw.  And even then, the 1 tag hunt choice odds will be based on how many actually apply and the points that they have.  Odds cannot be truly put out there pre-application wise.
Scenario:
2 tags.
2,000 people apply
Squared, there would be roughly 40,000 names in the hat.
The 16 point holder drew the 1st tag available.
Now there are 39,744 names in the hat.
Your odds just got a whole lot worse even though that 16 point holder is out of the way since now there's only 1 tag left.
Everytime a tag gets drawn, regardless of how many points you have, your odds get significantly worse.
But hey, everyone has a chance..........cough, cough, cough (sales pitch bought hook-line-and sinker courtesy of the WDFW)

Look at the fine print on a lottery ticket.  Odds of winning are an estimation.  Lots of disclaimer language in the fine print, for example.

[6x6in6]

sometime before 2089.

 
I'll be 126 years old.
That means I'll have 92 points.
My odds will still suck.   

[skywalker253]

Did you voice your concerns to WDFW?

No....

As I have stated many times; I like our current draw system. I went from drawing zero cow permits to 3 in 3 years. Like anything; there is always room for improvement. I am simply throwing out ideas for others in the topic, who are not happy with it. Just ideas....

[idahohuntr]

You cant calculate exact draw odds for any state prior to application because it is dependent on the number of people that actually apply (and their point total if their is a point system).  However, it is usually very reasonable to use the prior year or two odds to estimate the upcoming years odds.  You can estimate draw odds by your point total for hunts with more than 1 tag.

Some examples:
 
Dayton Quality Bull Unit (Hunt 2006 - 26 permits) Odds for 2012 Draw:
1 pt - 0.046%
5 pts - 1.141%
10 pts - 4.489%
15 pts - 9.829%

Quality Elk Unit with the worst odds??? Colockum (2019) 25 points would have given you a 1.144% chance in 2012

[skywalker253]

All applicants need to know; if they don't have 10 points or more then everything stays the same and their chances increase. They no longer have to compete with high point holder. Those that do have 10 or more points; they apply in Group A. Everything else stays the same and their draw chances increase.

This is not possible. Your idea is to have a separate draw for those with 10 points or more. You say it would increase their odds. But you also say those people with less than ten points would have better odds. How is that possible? If you make odds better for one group, it gets worse for the other.

This talk of giving even more of an advantage to those with high numbers of points- all it will do is make it even harder for new hunters. That's the complete opposite of what we need to do.

I dislike the un-needed categories in our system, but I don't want to see any changes. Just leave it as it is and let people get used to it. Everyone has the same chances. I see no reason to complain about any of it.

I am not an odds guru, but here is my example...

Under the current system the more points you have; the more entires you have in the pool. Correct?

So if you remove anyone with 10 points or more; simple math should tell us that anyone with 9 points or less would have a better chance of drawing, because they are not compeating with the high point holders. Am I missing something?

[snowpack]

But each year only a few '10 pointers' are removed and many, many more '8 pointers' are turned into '9 pointers' so the odds actually tend to keep dropping as the years roll by.

[skywalker253]

This talk of giving even more of an advantage to those with high numbers of points- all it will do is make it even harder for new hunters. That's the complete opposite of what we need to do.

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the entire purpose of the point system designed around the more points you have the better odds you have of being selected? A new hunter has a chance to draw with 1 point, but the system is designed to provide an advantage to those, who have been applying for several years to get a permit. I like our current system; however based off the posts in this topic, I don't feel (like many others) that a applicant with high points has much of an advantage in the draw. Too many applicants with a high number of points.

[skywalker253]

Purchasing points- I don't like the idea. It would end up becoming a rich mans special permit. Even if you limited it to purchasing (Example- 5 points per year) you would end up with too many high point holders. I think it would muddy up the draw system. That is what the govenors tag and raffle tags are for. You can pay to play as much as your budget can afford.

I wasn't suggesting you be allowed to buy multiple points per year.  I am saying keep the system the way it is, except limit number of hunt choices/applications somewhat like Idaho.  Maybe something like you get one "quality" choice (deer, elk, sheep, moose, or goat) and one antlerless choice etc.  However, still allow guys to build points by putting in for a ghost point option like you can do now if you don't want to actually enter the draw.

I am fortunate that I can buy points for many states but I agree with you that it should not be a "rich mans" sport/permit.  I understand the benefits and revenue associated with governors tags, raffle tags, point systems etc...but at the end of the day when you have raffles/point systems etc. you are basically saying unless you can commit the resources (money) to buy tickets and apps for many years you will be at a disadvantage.  Wildlife is owned by all of the people, not just the wealthy and while I prefer raffles/points over outright auctioning a tag that only 4 friggin people can bid on I still think the little guy is at a disadvantage to accessing what should be a public resource equally available to folks regardless of their income/wealth.   

I couldn't agree more. I suggested your idea a few weeks back and everyone in the thread said it would not work.

[skywalker253]

But each year only a few '10 pointers' are removed and many, many more '8 pointers' are turned into '9 pointers' so the odds actually tend to keep dropping as the years roll by.

So then it would work for the first year, then go to crap after that. Good post!

[snowpack]

I like our current system; however based off the posts in this topic, I don't feel (like many others) that a applicant with high points has much of an advantage in the draw. Too many applicants with a high number of points.

I think part of it is that most focus on permits for a handful of areas--2 that really get the most applicants.  They could apply with little competition to other hunt choices.  Some good hunts too.  But human nature...get attached to points and think more points = more value = need to be used on the higher 'trophy' hunt choice.