22 points

[dreamingbig]

I think permit numbers will bounce back in a few years for most elk units.

Why are you optimistic?


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[D-Rock425]

I think permit numbers will bounce back in a few years for most elk units.

Why are you optimistic?


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I saw it happen back in 2010 in the bumping and Nile archery season went spike only cow permits dropped and in just a few short years later archery season was back to antlerless and spike otc and wdfw was giving out 430 cow permits in the two units to modern and muzzy hunters (2016 numbers)

[High Climber]

I’ve got 22 quality elk points as well, plenty of years of ghost points and the last 5 years or so putting in for the toughest to draw tags...just gotta get lucky. If I was dying for a quality elk permit I would have had one by now in a less desirable unit I have no doubt. Our system works fine just have to get the tag numbers up and get everyone to realize that it’s a Lottery and points are just tickets.

[Rainier10]

I think permit numbers will bounce back in a few years for most elk units.

I had 49 cows, two spikes and 49 calves on my place last weekend.  If the predators don't get them that is great news for the herds assuming other areas have similar cow to calf numbers this year.  It has been a great spring early summer, lots of rain showers once every week or two keeping vegetation green and plentiful.  Wildlife is resilient and I think we are going to see a boom in numbers, if the predators don't get them all and the young ones can make it through the first few months.

[7mmfan]

Permits will increase again at some point. We all know that everything in nature is cyclical. If harvest on cows is reduced dramatically for a few years, like we're experiencing now, we will begin to see a substantial increase in animals very soon. It wouldn't surprise me if we see permit numbers increase in 4-5 years, or sooner even.

[dreamingbig]

I think permit numbers will bounce back in a few years for most elk units.

Why are you optimistic?


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I saw it happen back in 2010 in the bumping and Nile archery season went spike only cow permits dropped and in just a few short years later archery season was back to antlerless and spike otc and wdfw was giving out 430 cow permits in the two units to modern and muzzy hunters (2016 numbers)

The increase happened because of active vocal groups who were willing to call them on their BS.  The WSB was particularly active.  I haven’t seen any groups currently willing to push them back the other way.


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[huntingaddiction]

I know a lot of people with a lot of points that aren't drawing.

[Hockman]

If someone made this point, I missed it.

To me, the issue with our point system is it should be designed such that the longer you stay in the system, and more points you build, the better your odds drawing should be.  Unfortunately that is not the case.

I was only able to find data for 2019 so I picked goats because the number of hunts is small and I had to enter the data in a spreadsheet manually.  The attached pdf should have a trend of applicants per point level (Note:  In 2019 there were an additional 3,862 applicants for points only that are not reflected in the data) and an assumed scenario for North Lake Chelan where the real 2019 data is advanced one year.  It assumes the same people (2 applicants who drew are removed at their level) apply and assumes the same number of number applicants.

The data shows that each point level the odds drop as time advances.

[huntingaddiction]

22?  That seems crazy to me.  Are you putting in for rifle tags?

[High Climber]

22?  That seems crazy to me.  Are you putting in for rifle tags?

I’ve never put in for rifle tags, mostly apply for archery but the last two years went muzzy for slightly better odds in the particular units I was applying. 22 points = crappy odds still

[Stein]

If someone made this point, I missed it.

To me, the issue with our point system is it should be designed such that the longer you stay in the system, and more points you build, the better your odds drawing should be.  Unfortunately that is not the case.

I was only able to find data for 2019 so I picked goats because the number of hunts is small and I had to enter the data in a spreadsheet manually.  The attached pdf should have a trend of applicants per point level (Note:  In 2019 there were an additional 3,862 applicants for points only that are not reflected in the data) and an assumed scenario for North Lake Chelan where the real 2019 data is advanced one year.  It assumes the same people (2 applicants who drew are removed at their level) apply and assumes the same number of number applicants.

The data shows that each point level the odds drop as time advances.

It's true, in general your odds of drawing the hard tags tend to go down year to year but your odds at X points in any given draw are better than if you had <X points.  It's two ways of looking at odds and both are accurate.

[Rainier10]

If someone made this point, I missed it.

To me, the issue with our point system is it should be designed such that the longer you stay in the system, and more points you build, the better your odds drawing should be.  Unfortunately that is not the case.

I was only able to find data for 2019 so I picked goats because the number of hunts is small and I had to enter the data in a spreadsheet manually.  The attached pdf should have a trend of applicants per point level (Note:  In 2019 there were an additional 3,862 applicants for points only that are not reflected in the data) and an assumed scenario for North Lake Chelan where the real 2019 data is advanced one year.  It assumes the same people (2 applicants who drew are removed at their level) apply and assumes the same number of number applicants.

The data shows that each point level the odds drop as time advances.

Exactly.  One guy that had 10 points/100 names in the hat drops out of the running.  Everyone else gets a point and that increases the number of names in the hat.  The guy that had 20 points/400 names in the hat the following year has 21 points/441 names in the hat.  It only takes three guys still in the drawing with 21 points to drown out the points removed by the 10 point guy that was drawn.

It is worse for elk, there were 34,000 people in the draw.  Only 464 got drawn and they go back into the system the next year.  They only have one point but they are still in.  The other 33,546 people are still in the hat with one more point added to their old total.  The number is astronomical even if the average of points is 5/25 names in the hat goes to 6/36 names in the hat.  33,546 x 11 =380,006 more names in the hat.

People think the system is set up to give you a better chance which technically it does.  But if you look at it closer what it really is doing is giving you a better chance than a guy with fewer points than you but you are both dealing with ever decreasing odds.  Nobody really gets ahead.

[Stein]

It's best to think of it like a Powerball draw where every year they add a few more balls to the hopper and it gets harder to win.

[D-Rock425]

Would giving a percentage of tags out in preference drawing help at all?  Lets just say 25% of tags go in a preference draw for any hunt that has more than 4 tags?  The remaining 75% would stay in current system.  I don't know enough about preference vs bonus points to know if this,would help at all.

[Rainier10]

People hate the raffles because you can buy as many tickets as you want seemingly increasing your odds but want that extra point in the draw to increase their odds over the first time applicant or the guy that drew the year before.

I think the best way to do it is to zero the points and everyone gets one name in the hat.  It really is the most fair.  You either get lucky or you don't.