Idaho's affect on Montana for 2021???

[dvolmer]

(BG=Non Res Big Game combo and D=Non Res Deer combo)

So with one bonus point (bought at time of applying), 2018 odds were BG=100% and D=100%.  2019 odds were BG=77% and D=100%.  2020 odds were BG=68.5% and D=78.2%.

So the question is, as these tags get harder and harder to draw in the future, What will they be in 2021 as another variable is introduced and that being the changes in Idaho that will drive more hunters to find what they think are "Greener Pastures" in other non-resident states like Montana.  Im sure other states like Wyoming, Colorado, etc will also be affected.

My guess is that Montana will be down to 50% draw odds or less very soon.  Maybe even in year 2021. 

[Stein]

Well, they will likely keep dropping regardless of what ID does.

History suggests price changes have little to no impact on numbers of applicants, except for very short term.  They either still sell out or bounce right back in a year or two.  That said, ID also restricted where you can hunt, so that could change things.

MT is still more expensive and harder to draw a tag and people are less likely to pull up stakes and move to a new area and state where they have to start over from scratch and learn the rules and areas.  With ID first, you also would have to pass on ID with the hopes you are able to get a MT tag.  The timing of applications has a big impact for people that hunt multiple states.

I would guess the number of people dropping ID and going to MT is much less than the overall number of new people applying every year - either adding MT to whatever they were already doing or new hunters.

[dvolmer]

Well, they will likely keep dropping regardless of what ID does.

History suggests price changes have little to no impact on numbers of applicants, except for very short term.  They either still sell out or bounce right back in a year or two.  That said, ID also restricted where you can hunt, so that could change things.

MT is still more expensive and harder to draw a tag and people are less likely to pull up stakes and move to a new area and state where they have to start over from scratch and learn the rules and areas.  With ID first, you also would have to pass on ID with the hopes you are able to get a MT tag.  The timing of applications has a big impact for people that hunt multiple states.

I would guess the number of people dropping ID and going to MT is much less than the overall number of new people applying every year - either adding MT to whatever they were already doing or new hunters.

Good insight!  I have never been in the Idaho game.  Just Wyoming and Montana for me.  But I am wondering what the impact of Idaho's changes will have on me in Wyoming and Montana.  I agree with you that Wyoming's and Montana's odds are going to get worse on their own but just wondering if the Idaho thing will accelerate that some?

[Stein]

They could for sure.  Some people didn't get a tag that wanted one and I bet a chunk of people weren't paying attention or forgot on the big day in addition to the people that made the choice to not hunt ID.

If those people decided to hunt MT and they weren't already applying, you could see an additional drop in the chances of drawing an MT tag.  Since you have to draw the general tag, every additional person drops the odds for everyone else as opposed to states or animals that don't have general tags.

Tags are getting harder in every state in the west.  I'm actually thinking about midwest and eastern states, easy to get tags and plenty of game to chase, having to fly is the only real barrier.

[7mmfan]

It will accelerate it some. Who knows how much really. I am applying to Wyoming this year, if for no other reason to start acquiring points. I want to elk hunt every year and at this point Idaho has become too much of a crap shoot to depend on, so I need to start learning other areas and acquiring the points necessary to draw tags there.

[dvolmer]

Tags are getting harder in every state in the west.  I'm actually thinking about midwest and eastern states, easy to get tags and plenty of game to chase, having to fly is the only real barrier.

Not to be negative Stein, but my son in law tried that this season and went to Kansas with a buck and doe tag.  What we Westerners don't realize and take for granted is the public land option.  Out here in the west we have tons of public land.  Back east, just about everything is private.  He had a tough hunt with little to no access.  I asked him on what other options he had (paying a trespass fee etc) and he said it was tough because all of the good land was leased to outfitters and they wanted thousands to hunt.  But with the proper homework, you could probably find some good eastern states with options. I haven't done that yet but it is def worth looking into.

[Stein]

True, I'm looking into two states where I have family or friends that own land and have access to additional private land.

My work has a facility in TX I used to go to all the time, I looked into public hunting there figuring I could add it onto a trip and save big on travel.  That research ended quickly.

When I hunt MT and WY, the vast majority of other out of state trucks I see traveled west to get there, not east.  I think ID is different though.

[3nails]

 Expect the volume of hunters applying for Montana this year to set a new record.

[dilleytech]

Tags are getting harder in every state in the west.  I'm actually thinking about midwest and eastern states, easy to get tags and plenty of game to chase, having to fly is the only real barrier.

Not to be negative Stein, but my son in law tried that this season and went to Kansas with a buck and doe tag.  What we Westerners don't realize and take for granted is the public land option.  Out here in the west we have tons of public land.  Back east, just about everything is private.  He had a tough hunt with little to no access.  I asked him on what other options he had (paying a trespass fee etc) and he said it was tough because all of the good land was leased to outfitters and they wanted thousands to hunt.  But with the proper homework, you could probably find some good eastern states with options. I haven't done that yet but it is def worth looking into.

Sounds like Wyoming in my experience. 90%+ private with all private land going to outfitters.

[Skyvalhunter]

Plus the fact in WY a non resident has to hire a guide to hunt the Wilderness areas

[vandeman17]

Another Montana factor, though smaller, is Oregon's eastside deer and elk tags that were OTC going to draw for 2021 and 2022 will probably spread some of those people out as well.

[High Climber]

I’ll be in for the first time this year along with a few first time buddies.. no deer tag in Idaho for the first time in 5 years or so

[MADMAX]

Don’t do it
No deer there

[Magnum_Willys]

I’ll be in for the first time this year along with a few first time buddies.. no deer tag in Idaho for the first time in 5 years or so

Us too!!!!  Not firstime MT but first time in years dropping ID

[Bigshooter]

Are you sure that ID will hurt odds in other states?  ID is usually everyone's "backup" state.  But I have 6 friends that have already bought ID tags that usually would have waited to see if they would have drawn MT first.  But they didn't want to take a chance of not drawing MT and then no tags being left in ID so they bought them early.