Montana Big Game Combo Draw chances

[Bowbender]

So My partner and I have been hunting out of state Montana for many years. We have drawn as a group several times. Last year we did not draw. So my question is are the chances better for each of us to put in separately, or stick with the group draw. We each have 2 points and would go if only one of us draws individually, as a party we are averaged to 2 pts. Things have been changing for out of state hunters over the years and I'm not sure of what draw provides the best chances for Combo big game non resident drawing. School me on this. Thanks!

[Gentrys]

you have 2 points already and able to buy a 3rd this year when you apply?  If that's the case, you'll likely draw this year.

[OltHunter]

https://myfwp.mt.gov/getRepositoryFile?objectID=112967

[Bowbender]

so if we both put in separately, we are increasing the odds of one of us drawing a big game combo, over putting in together as a party?

[3nails]

so if we both put in separately, we are increasing the odds of one of us drawing a big game combo, over putting in together as a party?

I don't believe so. How would your odds be greater applying separately?

[vandeman17]

so if we both put in separately, we are increasing the odds of one of us drawing a big game combo, over putting in together as a party?

I don't believe so. How would your odds be greater applying separately?

They are much greater on limited entry tags because there could be one tag left and you get drawn as a pair so your application is tossed out. For the combo, your odds are mathematically lower but not enough to worry about. The bigger concern in my mind is if one of you draws and one doesn't, if you are good with that. If so, send it 

[3nails]

so if we both put in separately, we are increasing the odds of one of us drawing a big game combo, over putting in together as a party?

I don't believe so. How would your odds be greater applying separately?

They are much greater on limited entry tags because there could be one tag left and you get drawn as a pair so your application is tossed out. For the combo, your odds are mathematically lower but not enough to worry about. The bigger concern in my mind is if one of you draws and one doesn't, if you are good with that. If so, send it

The general draw is what I'm referring to. Seems like such a tiny difference in percentage that it's a non-issue.

[pickardjw]

Pretty sure 3 points will still be 100% draw odds for big game combo...So what Gentrys said. I'd apply as a group, both buy the pref point, and y'all should be guaranteed a tag. Last year's stats:

3pts - 100%
2pts - 84%
1pts - 0%
0pts - 53%

[vandeman17]

so if we both put in separately, we are increasing the odds of one of us drawing a big game combo, over putting in together as a party?

I don't believe so. How would your odds be greater applying separately?

They are much greater on limited entry tags because there could be one tag left and you get drawn as a pair so your application is tossed out. For the combo, your odds are mathematically lower but not enough to worry about. The bigger concern in my mind is if one of you draws and one doesn't, if you are good with that. If so, send it

The general draw is what I'm referring to. Seems like such a tiny difference in percentage that it's a non-issue.

Agreed. The difference in odds isn't enough to even take into consideration

[Sakko300wsm]

Ya I would put in as a group - good chance you will draw. We basically hunt Montana every year - horn tags every other year and B tags on the off years

[Bowbender]

Thanks to all who responded, we are putting in as a group. We have 2 pts each and will each buy a third PP. I will let you know how we do. Thanks again, you guys are the best.

[KNOPHISH]

Will the NR combo tag odds be affected by the deer tag reduction or is on deer tags only?

[vandeman17]

Will the NR combo tag odds be affected by the deer tag reduction or is on deer tags only?

I could see some guys apply for the deer/elk combo and applying for an elk permit so that they can return the elk tag and retain the deer tag when not drawn

[OltHunter]

Thanks to all who responded, we are putting in as a group. We have 2 pts each and will each buy a third PP. I will let you know how we do. Thanks again, you guys are the best.

You guys will 100% draw with 3 points. Have a great hunt this year!

[muleyguy]

You will most likely draw with 3pts.  But it might not be as much of a slam dunk as in previous years.  The NR deer tags that Montana cut are coming out of a pool of tags that is created when NR who applied for the Big Game combo, and were successful, kept their elk tag but returned their deer tags, and those tags then toll down into the deer combination NR pool. That was 5000 people last yr.  The cut is 50%.  So that roughly equates to 2500 tags.  But nobody will know the exact number until after the draw.  But what many people do not understand is those tags still “exist” before the draw; they exist at the Big Game Combo.  My expectation is there will be a decent amount of people who would normally apply just for the deer combo, move “up” and apply for the big game combo.  And then, if successful, turn their elk tag back.   So I think there will be quite a few more applicants than previous years in the big game combo pool.  3pts might still be close to 100%, but I think you are going to see some slippage off of that.

As for how to think of it if you apply as a party, or individually, then that depends.  When you apply as a party, you have one “slip” of paper in the tumbler so to speak.  If your group of 5 applies individually, then you have 5 “slips” of paper in the tumbler.   The effect of that is “individually” one of you has a significantly greater chance of drawing if you split it, but your chances of all 5 of you getting drawn decreases.   The caveat to that is the points.  With 3 your chance is so high that it doesn’t make any sense to split it up.   But, if you had 2 pts, then the chances of one or two of you drawing is higher then if you applied as a group.