The truth about our draw odds

[Alan K]

I think the info counts a 1st choice or a 2nd choice application as the same, so it shouldn't throw the numbers off

How many people actually draw on a 2nd choice? You would have to remove all 2nd choice applications in order to get your approximate actual odds. I don't see how there is any way that a 2nd choice applicant has the same exact odds as a 1st choice applicant, therefore your odds would seem actually worse than they are.

Right? 

1st or 2nd choice winners are on the above links.
Far right column is combined 1st and 2nd choice winners.
3rd column from right is just the 1st choice winners.

Thanks, I always wondered that. Sort of figured it was along those lines but wasn't sure.

[dreamingbig]

There is one unit I want to draw for archery elk. It isn't the best unit but it is sentimental.  I am hoping to get lucky in the lottery.

Todd, question, did you deduct the successful applicants from the previous year in your forecast and did you make any attempt to quantify how many have dropped out (illness, death, or economy) of the pool?

[6x6in6]

There is one unit I want to draw for archery elk. It isn't the best unit but it is sentimental.  I am hoping to get lucky in the lottery.

Todd, question, did you deduct the successful applicants from the previous year in your forecast and did you make any attempt to quantify how many have dropped out (illness, death, or economy) of the pool?

I'm not going to answer for Todd, but I think he will concur since I think he's been tracking this like I have for many years now.
The winners and removing their points from the projected like Todd did does not equal the projected future applicants.  This is courtesy of the squaring of the points.
Like Todd said, your odds get worse every year.
The only  things that can make your odds get better is less applicants and more tags available in a given hunt choice.  Less applicants really is the biggest factor in possible odds increase, again squaring.  Unless it's a significant increase in tags (like more than double) it does not have much to do with it in the big picture.
We are all going backwards folks.

[seth30]

Wow!  Those are some serious odds, thanks for breaking it down!  Not going to show the wife, no way I can jusitify to spend on the tags if she sees this

[dreamingbig]

That makes sense... the squaring of the points is an exponential increase in the number of applications.  Okay, after I draw, lets blow the system up and start over with straight preference points and limited non-resident like NM did. 

[Dry creek]

my brother a westside hunter drew a muti elk permit he thinks 2080 and 2081 is his best shot with 15 points.

[6x6in6]

Here's something to chew on.........

To have 50% chance in drawing in 2010:
Dayton #2006 - 31 points.
Colockum #2019 - Over 400 points.  Yes, over 400 or 160,000 of your applications in that drawing. 

[shanevg]

Just did the odds on my favorite goat unit. This year I have a 0.162% chance of drawing. Even if I turn in a poacher and get 10 additional points my odds only go up to 0.587%. 

[cmiller85]

That makes sense... the squaring of the points is an exponential increase in the number of applications.  Okay, after I draw, lets blow the system up and start over with straight preference points and limited non-resident like NM did. 

I better idea would be to go with no points system at all. Look at Idaho. They know how to do it when it comes to improving draw odds. No point system = way better odds. Period.

[CamoDup]

You cant figure odds unless you know how many people have certain amounts of points. Come on guys, just apply and hope to get lucky

  there are way too many guys that think way too hard about this...

[shanevg]

You cant figure odds unless you know how many people have certain amounts of points. Come on guys, just apply and hope to get lucky

  there are way too many guys that think way too hard about this...

WDFW tells us exactly how many people had how many points.

[fair-chase]

Most depressing thread ever. 

[shanevg]

What we need o do is get data like this in front of WDFW at one of their "input" meetings and show them that the current system is mathematically making our drawing odds worse each year. If we could just convince them to limit everyone to one choice per category it would increase our draw odds significantly.

[dreamingbig]

Btw, the depressing draw odds are the reason I am willing to risk blowing quality elk, bull elk, and cow elk by applying for all three.  No way in heck would I get more than one or two!

[bowsandhose]

Most depressing thread ever.