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Big Game Hunting => Other Big Game => Topic started by: rasbo on January 11, 2009, 07:11:36 AM


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Title: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: rasbo on January 11, 2009, 07:11:36 AM
what area has the best moose population?And for someone that dont know the areas,which do you think would be the best pick?
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: 270Shooter on January 11, 2009, 08:38:39 AM
Never hunted moose, but I'd say 49 or selkirk. :twocents:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: boneaddict on January 11, 2009, 08:50:36 AM
What would make you say those two 270?
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: 270Shooter on January 11, 2009, 08:56:57 AM
Because those two have a lot of public land and a lot of bull tags. I think units with less bull tags may have bigger bulls, like Huckleberry. But there isn't very much public land there.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: boneaddict on January 11, 2009, 09:02:04 AM
I believe the last bio report said that hangman had the "highest density" of moose.  It also has probably towards the least amount of tags.  Huckleberry is on the climb.  49 and Selkirk are BIG units with some Big country in it.  I think you have the best trophy potential in Selkirk as there are more places to get away.  The general idea is the closer to the boundary you go the bigger the bulls (canadian crossover).  The Selkirk has much tougher country to hunt.  49 has alot more access( road).  It can be legitimately argued that there are huge bulls in every unit that a tag is offered.  Just get one and you'll be happy.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: PA BEN on January 11, 2009, 09:03:22 AM
First choice 49, second choice Huckleberry, third choice Aladdin, fourth choice Selkirk. :twocents:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Ridgerunner on January 11, 2009, 09:03:41 AM
I think it totally depends on what you want out of the experience really all the units are good just different those who hunt selkirk will have a much different experience than those who hunt like hangman or mount spokane drawing the tag is the toughest part
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Wea300mag on January 11, 2009, 09:05:17 AM
For someone who doesn't know the areas I would use the stats that the WDFW provide to choose and, if I remember correctly, 49 Deg N has the best stats. For me, any of the four choices I put down would be fine because I just want to go moose hunting. :mgun2:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: boneaddict on January 11, 2009, 09:06:05 AM
exactly What Ridge said
What is your hunting style?
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: PA BEN on January 11, 2009, 09:11:04 AM
After drawing a tag last year for 49 and talking to members here and being from Chewelah and have talked to a lot of my friends over there, you will find good numbers of moose in all area's. I would plan on hunting behind gates, less pressure. Hangman has a lot of Private property, harder excess. I would talk to someone who has hunted Hangman before I put in for it.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: fc2038 on January 11, 2009, 11:58:35 AM
I think it totally depends on what you want out of the experience really all the units are good just different those who hunt selkirk will have a much different experience than those who hunt like hangman or mount spokane drawing the tag is the toughest part


ain't that a fact! One of these years I guess I might be able to draw.  :dunno:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: huntnphool on January 11, 2009, 01:35:21 PM
Well I hunted hard for 27 days in 49DN and I can assure you there are trophy class bulls in that unit. 22 of those days I was after a bull that a lot of people put at 60" we looked at him from 30 yards for 2 1/2 hours and came up with a spread of about 57" and a score of 170+ I finally found him again on Nov. 24th and was crushed to find he had dropped one side :bash: That gave me only a few days to regroup and find another big bull. You all know how the story ends but let me tell you there are potential record bulls in 49 :twocents:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: bobcat on January 11, 2009, 01:42:40 PM
Well I hunted hard for 27 days in 49DN

That 27 days is sure going to make the stats for that unit look bad, on the "Average Days/Kill" column.  :chuckle:   I see in '07 it was 4.39 days per kill.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: NWTFhunter on January 11, 2009, 01:44:24 PM
All you guys saying Huck are seeing things... there aint no moose on that side of the Highway, they all stay on the east side...... :chuckle:
I got a good feeling this year that I am going to draw
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Ridgerunner on January 11, 2009, 01:56:32 PM
i know of another unit that at least one b&c bull was left on the mountain<  :bdid:

the only unit i haven"t heard great things about lately is mount spokane its seen better days i believe
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: WDFW-SUX on January 11, 2009, 02:11:07 PM
The one you can draw.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: popeshawnpaul on January 11, 2009, 03:58:13 PM
Selkirk for me.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: MLBowhunting on January 16, 2009, 09:41:30 PM
49 is good ive been there twice and seen more bulls then cows also selkirk has nice bulls also just didnt see as many moose there as 49 just my  :twocents:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: TeacherMan on January 17, 2009, 09:39:29 AM
100% no question, 1st choice 49 2nd choice Selkirk, no 3rd or 4th
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: rasbo on January 17, 2009, 09:49:21 AM
Sounds like 49 will be choice #1 well ive got 1 point already.next year I will get drawn right :chuckle:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: whacker1 on January 17, 2009, 10:26:48 AM
Mt Spokane still has a good population of moose - I believe the difficulty with that unit is the big bulls are relatively protected by private property on the West & South Side.  There is some access on the North Side and the Park up high.  The East Side turns into Idaho.  There are still a lot of moose and some with size coming off that hill, but it is the most difficult for folks from out of town to get permission to hunt, because of the small parcels of land (5, 10, 20, 40 acre parcels.) 

Selkirk is my favorite for Big Bulls, but I would also say that it is one of the more difficult to hunt, because it is very brushy and overgrown.  But there is a lot of escapement for animals, because it is very overgrown and brushy.

 
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Elkfever on January 20, 2014, 11:32:36 AM
Moose is at the top of my list as far as an animal I would love to hunt and harvest.  Ive got a few points built up and am always reflecting on where I am applying.  Living and hunting in SW WA, I don't have intimate knowledge of the NE moose areas.  After reading this old post from '09, it got me wondering what has changed in the last 5 years.  Is 49 Degrees and Selkirk still the best place for a boot hunter (that has done his hw) to have opportunities at good bulls, hunt in beautiful moose country and have access to lots of public land?  Have the wolves made much of an impact on the NE population or moose behavior?  Ive had the Kettle Range/East Okanogan area as my third choice- thoughts?  Would like to start putting in for a fourth choice but don't want to just "fill up" my choices.  Just looking to generate conversation on the moose areas of our state.  Thanks for sharing. 
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bob33 on January 20, 2014, 11:46:10 AM
Any unit that starts with the letters "ID".
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: boneaddict on January 20, 2014, 11:49:37 AM
Get drawn, that's the hardest part.   Any unit that there are tags for in this state have record class moose in them.  Its not rocket science.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: kentrek on January 20, 2014, 12:44:10 PM
Get drawn, that's the hardest part.   Any unit that there are tags for in this state have record class moose in them.  Its not rocket science.

I would assume this is the case but in my experience in idaho the wolf's shows up an the moose left  :dunno: I have no stats or credible sources except rumours an my observations but tha seemed to be the case an I dont think it would be any different in wa...

Thatd kinda suck to draw a moose tag where a big wolf pack has pushed all the moose out  :dunno:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: quadrafire on January 20, 2014, 12:49:47 PM
Good point Kentrek. I think I read recently that the state is starting to study the population situation for that very reason.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: boneaddict on January 20, 2014, 12:55:18 PM
Get drawn, that's the hardest part.   Any unit that there are tags for in this state have record class moose in them.  Its not rocket science.

I would assume this is the case but in my experience in idaho the wolf's shows up an the moose left  :dunno: I have no stats or credible sources except rumours an my observations but tha seemed to be the case an I dont think it would be any different in wa...

Thatd kinda suck to draw a moose tag where a big wolf pack has pushed all the moose out  :dunno:

Wolves are effecting the moose ....VERY TRUE
There are wolves in essentially every unit there are moose tags, so ............ not sure how much of a factor they will be, until you start seeing fewer moose thus fewer tags in all units represented, and even poorer OIL draws.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: kentrek on January 20, 2014, 01:09:11 PM
Once again its just my observations but wolves seem to come an go in certain regions all pending on the amount of prey they have..so you will have a bubble of sparce game that follows behind a big pack..it takes about 2 years to have animals move back into an area once the wolves eat everything an move on...while I doubt we could rely on fish an game to keep us up to date maybe with the use of the forum we could at least post observations  :dunno: idk if the wolf problem is that bad in wa yet but I doubt its gona get better an seems to be just where idaho was about 10 years ago
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bob33 on January 20, 2014, 01:40:48 PM
With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bean Counter on January 20, 2014, 01:52:01 PM
With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.

 :yike:  :(
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: finnman on January 20, 2014, 02:50:37 PM
If you really want, and I mean really want to hunt moose then you need to just apply in Idaho, cough up the $2,200 bucks and get the tag, some very easy draw odds for decent bulls.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bob33 on January 21, 2014, 08:40:00 AM
If you really want, and I mean really want to hunt moose then you need to just apply in Idaho, cough up the $2,200 bucks and get the tag, some very easy draw odds for decent bulls.
The sooner, the better. I just read this "letter to the editor" in an outdoor magazine. Coming soon to a state near you....
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: bearpaw on January 21, 2014, 08:49:28 AM
 :yeah: excellent post bob!

I would have voted Selkirk in the past, but wolves are already impacting that herd and moose numbers are dropping. Another unit in decline is Kettle Range, the moose have been hit hard by wolves in several areas of this unit.

Currently I will vote 49 Degrees, Hangman, Mt Spokane, and Huckleberry as having the most concentrated moose numbers.

But, this is going to change as the wolves are hitting the moose pretty good in Huckleberry and more wolves are moving into 49 degrees.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: boneaddict on January 21, 2014, 08:53:04 AM
I was extremely disappointed in my photo ops this year in Hangman and the Idaho side of it.   Definitely a decline.    Its pretty sad as the moose were a success story, but another user groups success story is now capitalizing on it. :(
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: bearpaw on January 21, 2014, 09:20:18 AM
I was extremely disappointed in my photo ops this year in Hangman and the Idaho side of it.   Definitely a decline.    Its pretty sad as the moose were a success story, but another user groups success story is now capitalizing on it. :(

I hadn't heard that about hangman yet, very sorry to hear.  :(
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: boneaddict on January 21, 2014, 09:54:16 AM
The wolves moved into the Idaho side of Mica, and they go where their food is, as you know, the  stateline means nothing.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: WAcoueshunter on January 21, 2014, 10:36:12 AM
With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.

Definitely good advice, although I'm not sure about the math. 

In 2012, there were 13,068 49DN applicants with an average of 6 points, or 470,448 total numbers in the draw.  Divide by 21 49DN tags, equals 22,402 numbers in the draw per tag.  Someone with 19 points would have 361 numbers in the draw.  22,402/361 = 62, or 1:62 odds.

If that same person put in for three other units, his/her overall odds would get down to 1:15 or so.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: bobcat on January 21, 2014, 10:49:05 AM
There's no possible way moose odds ever get close to 1 in 15. But I sure wish that were true!
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: WAcoueshunter on January 21, 2014, 10:58:46 AM
There's no possible way moose odds ever get close to 1 in 15. But I sure wish that were true!

Feel free to point out where the math is incorrect.  I'm not a statistician, but I think that math gets you pretty close.  Also, if you just eyeball the point totals, those guys at the top are in the 1:30 range.  10 successful applicants out of 372 applications with 18 points, 7 out of 244 with 16 points, etc.  Could be that some of those guys don't put in for all four choices, which would lower their odds.  Could be that my math is a little off somewhere.  Either way, it's a whole lot lower than 1:125.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bob33 on January 21, 2014, 11:12:51 AM
With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.

Definitely good advice, although I'm not sure about the math. 

In 2012, there were 13,068 49DN applicants with an average of 6 points, or 470,448 total numbers in the draw.  Divide by 21 49DN tags, equals 22,402 numbers in the draw per tag.  Someone with 19 points would have 361 numbers in the draw.  22,402/361 = 62, or 1:62 odds.

If that same person put in for three other units, his/her overall odds would get down to 1:15 or so.
Average points don't work for this. You need to compute "names in the hat" individually.  There were 890,434 names in the hat for 49 DN. See below. Example - for the three applicants with 19 points, there were 1083 names in the hat: 19^2 x 3.

Points   Applications   Names
19   3   1083
18   5   1620
17   332   95948
16   189   48384
15   203   45675
14   568   111328
13   568   95992
12   584   84096
11   617   74657
10   677   67700
9   847   68607
8   860   55040
7   875   42875
6   992   35712
5   1095   27375
4   1130   18080
3   1148   10332
2   1185   4740
1   1190   1190
Totals   13068   890434
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: idahohuntr on January 21, 2014, 11:29:59 AM
There's no possible way moose odds ever get close to 1 in 15. But I sure wish that were true!

Ummm, okay.  Feel free to point out where the math is incorrect.  I'm not a statistician, but I think that math gets you pretty close.
Your average points calculation is incorrect...there were approximately 890,000 "names in the hat" for the 49 moose tag in 2012...not 470k. 

I am really uncertain how best to go about cumulative probabilities with putting in for 4 moose hunts...it is definitely in your interest to do so...1:15 does seem too low...just looking at the distribution of tags for "max" points holders it has hovered around 1:35-1:40...which is acutally quite a bit lower (better) odds than I would have expected...maybe in some scenarios your odds approach 1:15  :dunno:

I think with the OIL species draw odds are kind of pointless (pun intended) :chuckle:  :chuckle: 
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bob33 on January 21, 2014, 11:50:36 AM
"I am really uncertain how best to go about cumulative probabilities with putting in for 4 moose hunts...it is definitely in your interest to do so"

Here's how. First, compute the odds of not drawing any of the four.

The odds of not drawing the first choice is 1 - 'odds of drawing'.  For sake of discussion, let's assume all four units have a 1 in 100 chance. That means the chance of not drawing the first choice = 1 - .01 = .99.  The odds of not drawing the second choice is .99. Same for the third and four.

Therefore the odds of not drawing any of the four is .99 x .99 x .99 x .99 = approximately .9606. The odds of drawing one of them is thus 1 - .9606 or about .0394.

Some people mistakenly believe that you can add individual probabilites. It's easy to see the falacity of this if you consider a coin flip. The odds of flipping heads is 50%. However, flipping the coin twice does not produce a 100% chance of getting heads.

Using the reverse method is often the easiest way to solve this problem.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: WAcoueshunter on January 21, 2014, 12:04:50 PM
With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.

Definitely good advice, although I'm not sure about the math. 

In 2012, there were 13,068 49DN applicants with an average of 6 points, or 470,448 total numbers in the draw.  Divide by 21 49DN tags, equals 22,402 numbers in the draw per tag.  Someone with 19 points would have 361 numbers in the draw.  22,402/361 = 62, or 1:62 odds.

If that same person put in for three other units, his/her overall odds would get down to 1:15 or so.
Average points don't work for this. You need to compute "names in the hat" individually.  There were 890,434 names in the hat for 49 DN. See below. Example - for the three applicants with 19 points, there were 1083 names in the hat: 19^2 x 3.

Points   Applications   Names
19   3   1083
18   5   1620
17   332   95948
16   189   48384
15   203   45675
14   568   111328
13   568   95992
12   584   84096
11   617   74657
10   677   67700
9   847   68607
8   860   55040
7   875   42875
6   992   35712
5   1095   27375
4   1130   18080
3   1148   10332
2   1185   4740
1   1190   1190
Totals   13068   890434


Yes, the average I used is off.   I assumed 6 (for all moose applicants), but it appears to be closer to 8.  The average 49DN applicant has 8.255 points, so odds for someone with 19 points would be 890,434/21/361 = 1:117. 

I just added up the numbers for Hangman and got 166,592/7/361 = 1:66 for someone with 19 points.  If you also applied for three of the other less popular units (Kettle, Three Forks, etc.), overall odds with four choices should be down in the 1:25 range.

Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bob33 on January 21, 2014, 12:13:00 PM
"I just added up the numbers for Hangman and got 166,592/7/361 = 1:66 for someone with 19 points.  If you also applied for three of the other less popular units (Kettle, Three Forks, etc.), overall odds with four choices should be down in the 1:25 range."

A person with 19 points, assume he lives long enough does have some hope of drawing in his lifetime if he puts in for multiple units every year. Still, he would have to put in with the with 1 in 25 odds for 17 years to get to a 50/50 chance of drawing. Anyone with less than 19 points obviously has worse odds.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: WAcoueshunter on January 21, 2014, 12:22:45 PM
"I just added up the numbers for Hangman and got 166,592/7/361 = 1:66 for someone with 19 points.  If you also applied for three of the other less popular units (Kettle, Three Forks, etc.), overall odds with four choices should be down in the 1:25 range."

A person with 19 points, assume he lives long enough does have some hope of drawing in his lifetime if he puts in for multiple units every year. Still, he would have to put in with the with 1 in 25 odds for 17 years to get to a 50/50 chance of drawing. Anyone with less than 19 points obviously has worse odds.

Besides tag numbers and number of applicants, points creep could have a huge impact over time.  Wonder what the trend is?
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bob33 on January 21, 2014, 12:29:56 PM
"I just added up the numbers for Hangman and got 166,592/7/361 = 1:66 for someone with 19 points.  If you also applied for three of the other less popular units (Kettle, Three Forks, etc.), overall odds with four choices should be down in the 1:25 range."

A person with 19 points, assume he lives long enough does have some hope of drawing in his lifetime if he puts in for multiple units every year. Still, he would have to put in with the with 1 in 25 odds for 17 years to get to a 50/50 chance of drawing. Anyone with less than 19 points obviously has worse odds.

Besides tag numbers and number of applicants, points creep could have a huge impact over time.  Wonder what the trend is?
See this post for WA moose: http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,144901.msg1926481.html#msg1926481 (http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,144901.msg1926481.html#msg1926481)

In the example used, odds for the hunter with max points would go from 1 in 118 to 1 in 130 if everyone moved up one point, and no applicants were added or dropped out.

In most Western states, points creep is hurting applicants with high point numbers.

I expect that as more and more hunters become aware of how poor draw odds actually are in many cases, applications will decline which would improve odds.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: WAcoueshunter on January 21, 2014, 01:59:32 PM
Thinking about the odds calculations, the one problem with adding up the four different application choices is that all of the hunts are really just part of one big pool the way they run the draw.

Take Hangman for example.  Of those 2256 (out of 20,597 total) that applied for Hangman as one of their four choices, some of the successful applicants with Hangman as one of their four choices will have put 49DN, Selkirk, Huckleberry, etc., as a higher choice.  I wouldn't doubt that most of the 2256 put something else as their first or second choices.  Who knows how many Hangman applicants were successful in the draw overall, but you can bet it was significantly more than the 7 that wound up with Hangman tags.  There are 75 non-Hangman tags, so let's assume that all the other tags went first.  If only 10% of the pool had Hangman listed (about right), they could go an extra 70 names or so before filling those last seven tags.  If that were the case, you'd only need to be one of the top 145 or so names out of the hat to draw the Hangman tag.   

20,597 applicants x 8.25 points = 1,401,883 names in the hat / 361 for someone with 19 points / 145 = 1:26 odds.

I'm picking on Hangman, and maybe its Kettle, Three Forks or somewhere else that is the last tag to go.  The point is, if you just want a tag, you need to put the easiest to draw tags on your list.  Someone with 19 points should be able to get down near the 1:25 range. 
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: idahohuntr on January 21, 2014, 02:28:13 PM
Yea, this was my hang up to Bob's more simplified calculation of cumulative odds...the way the draw works there is not independence in the events...maybe he is still correct...and certainly if each moose hunt was an independent draw he is exactly correct...and given that so few tags are handed out maybe it doesn't make much of a difference.  :dunno: 
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bob33 on January 21, 2014, 02:50:09 PM
Yea, this was my hang up to Bob's more simplified calculation of cumulative odds...the way the draw works there is not independence in the events...maybe he is still correct...and certainly if each moose hunt was an independent draw he is exactly correct...and given that so few tags are handed out maybe it doesn't make much of a difference.  :dunno:
IF there were quite a few tags/permits relative to the number of applicants, it would be a factor. There were 75 "any moose" permits given out for 19,000 applicants. As each one draws, his names are "eliminated from the hat" which improves the odds of remaining applicants but not by very much due to the small number of tags.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: whacker1 on January 21, 2014, 02:56:06 PM
Yea, this was my hang up to Bob's more simplified calculation of cumulative odds...the way the draw works there is not independence in the events...maybe he is still correct...and certainly if each moose hunt was an independent draw he is exactly correct...and given that so few tags are handed out maybe it doesn't make much of a difference.  :dunno:
IF there were quite a few tags/permits relative to the number of applicants, it would be a factor. There were 75 "any moose" permits given out for 19,000 applicants. As each one draws, his names are "eliminated from the hat" which improves the odds of remaining applicants but not by very much due to the small number of tags.

there are more new young people coming into the equation than there are being eliminated by drawing.  Even if 75 people at max points were eliminated 75x19=1425.  I would be willing to wager that there are more than 1425 first year applicants coming into the draw to keep the draw odds in check rather than favoring each of us with higher point numbers.  Just my two cents
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: WSU on January 21, 2014, 03:03:31 PM
Except that points are squared, meaning the "names in the hat" removed would be 19X19X75=27,075.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: deaner on January 21, 2014, 03:05:34 PM
breaking down the draw odds is equal parts confusing and depressing.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: whacker1 on January 21, 2014, 03:12:14 PM
Except that points are squared, meaning the "names in the hat" removed would be 19X19X75=27,075.

Oops, small math error.  So the number of new applications and increasing applications would have to override the 27k that are leaving the pool.   I guess all you can do is total the numbers year over year based on averages to see what the total might look like.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Falcon on January 21, 2014, 08:01:20 PM
I am in WAY too deep to look back! :yike:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bob33 on January 21, 2014, 08:34:53 PM
Except that points are squared, meaning the "names in the hat" removed would be 19X19X75=27,075.
Only if those with 19 points draw. Someone with 1 point could draw which removes 1 name from the hat.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: deaner on January 21, 2014, 09:13:37 PM
oh come on, somebody with one point cant draw and we all know it.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: bradslam on January 21, 2014, 09:24:45 PM
oh come on, somebody with one point cant draw and we all know it.

And you base this on...?
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: deaner on January 21, 2014, 09:42:22 PM
oh come on, somebody with one point cant draw and we all know it.

And you base this on...?

my own *censored* luck?  :dunno:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Mr Mykiss on January 21, 2014, 09:44:37 PM
What would be the best unit to apply for with 8 points?
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: huntnnw on January 21, 2014, 10:25:39 PM
they are all good and all hold big bulls..worry about drawing first.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Whitpirate on January 21, 2014, 10:29:56 PM
Put in for the same as me... .49, Selkirk and Huckleberry that way you'll get drawn.  Going on 18 points this next year.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Annette on January 21, 2014, 10:48:28 PM
I missed this one and he's still there.... mt Spokane South  :bash:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: quadrafire on January 22, 2014, 08:00:42 AM
I spend a fair amount of time in all of these units, and see moose in similar numbers it seems.
I believe I would select based on the hunting experience I would like and not necessarily a particular animal  for me. I would just be meat hunting.
I probably spend the most time in Mica (hangman) but for me it wouldn't be the ideal hunt. I would choose Selkirk for sure.

I have given you all a boost and taken my name out of the hat. I quit applying for the draw last year. Tired of wasting my money.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Threewolves on February 15, 2014, 07:04:08 PM
Alaska is the best place and you do not have to draw.  I have killed 5 up there, the last one was with bow and arrow. Hunting Alaska bull moose with a bow is kind of like hunting dinosaurs. I too have a bunch of WA Moose points and Max for big horn sheep, crap is it 19 point now? I guess if I really wanted one I should go some place other than WA, Same with moose if you really wanted one go hunt some place else. 19 pts, that is a life time waiting, life is too short.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Sitka_Blacktail on February 15, 2014, 09:01:58 PM
"I am really uncertain how best to go about cumulative probabilities with putting in for 4 moose hunts...it is definitely in your interest to do so"

Here's how. First, compute the odds of not drawing any of the four.

The odds of not drawing the first choice is 1 - 'odds of drawing'.  For sake of discussion, let's assume all four units have a 1 in 100 chance. That means the chance of not drawing the first choice = 1 - .01 = .99.  The odds of not drawing the second choice is .99. Same for the third and four.

Therefore the odds of not drawing any of the four is .99 x .99 x .99 x .99 = approximately .9606. The odds of drawing one of them is thus 1 - .9606 or about .0394.

Some people mistakenly believe that you can add individual probabilites. It's easy to see the falacity of this if you consider a coin flip. The odds of flipping heads is 50%. However, flipping the coin twice does not produce a 100% chance of getting heads.

Using the reverse method is often the easiest way to solve this problem.

Yup. If you flip a coin once the odds are 50% of flipping a head. The odds of the next flip being  head is also 50%. This makes the odds of flipping a coin twice and getting heads at least once 75%. Flip again and that flip also has 50% odds of being a head, but the overall odds of having flipped a head has climbed to 87.5% flip a 4th flip, and the overall odds climb to 93.75%. The odds of flipping a coin 5 times and flipping a head at least once are 98.675% and if you flip a coin 6 times those odds go up to 98.4375%. If you flip a coin 7 times the odds of flipping a heads at least once is 99.21875 and finally if you flip a coin 8 times, the odds of flipping at least one heads is 99.609375%. Nearly 100%, but no matter how man times you continue to flip, you will never reach 100% You will just get ever so small closer to it.

But while 99.609375% seems pretty much a sure bet, what does it mean? I'll round it to 99.6094% for an example. It means if you flipped a coin 8 times and did that a total of 1 million times, probability would dictate that 996,094 times you would flip at least one heads. But probability would also dictate that 3,906 times, you would flip 8 tails in a row. Certainly not an impossibility, just highly unlikely. Divide both sides of the equation by 1,000 and if you flipped a coin 8 times and did that 1,000 times, you'd likely flip 8 tails about 4 times.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Sitka_Blacktail on February 15, 2014, 10:03:51 PM
With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.

Definitely good advice, although I'm not sure about the math. 

In 2012, there were 13,068 49DN applicants with an average of 6 points, or 470,448 total numbers in the draw.  Divide by 21 49DN tags, equals 22,402 numbers in the draw per tag.  Someone with 19 points would have 361 numbers in the draw.  22,402/361 = 62, or 1:62 odds.

If that same person put in for three other units, his/her overall odds would get down to 1:15 or so.
Average points don't work for this. You need to compute "names in the hat" individually.  There were 890,434 names in the hat for 49 DN. See below. Example - for the three applicants with 19 points, there were 1083 names in the hat: 19^2 x 3.

Points   Applications   Names
19   3   1083
18   5   1620
17   332   95948
16   189   48384
15   203   45675
14   568   111328
13   568   95992
12   584   84096
11   617   74657
10   677   67700
9   847   68607
8   860   55040
7   875   42875
6   992   35712
5   1095   27375
4   1130   18080
3   1148   10332
2   1185   4740
1   1190   1190
Totals   13068   890434

This chart shows the downfall of using preference points or weighted preference points for extremely limited draw situations.  As time goes on, if everyone stays in the system from the time they get a license until they quit hunting, or get drawn since this is a once in a lifetime draw, the odds will continue to get smaller that someone who puts in for the first time will ever get drawn. It gets even worse if the number of applicants keeps growing as is evidenced by this chart.

I will use the chart above as an example and will put the average career for a hunter at 50 years (age 15-65). For starters, if everything else stays the same 13,068 individual hunters put in for this draw for 21 tags.  That means only .16% will draw this year, regardless of the preference points. The reality of that is, it will take the average hunter 625 years to be drawn. With an average hunting career of 50 years, that equates to only 1 out of 8 hunters ever being drawn for this tag during their hunting lifetime. No amount of preference point will ever change that fact. But the ones who got started gaining preference points later will be at an even bigger disadvantage. Right now, only 8 people have either 18 or 19 preference points. But if you look at this chart, in 6 years, over 1800 people will have 18 or more preference points.  Where does that put a first time hunter?  At 21 tags per year times a 50 year hunting career, that equals 1050 tags given out in the average hunter's career. But in 6 years, there will be 1800 with 18 or more points. That means  750+ of those people will never draw in their lifetime. Actually it means even more of the will never draw because most of them will be 20 or more years already into their hunting career. So they would have 30 years or less remaining to hunt and draw a tag. In the graph above, a first time applicant has over 11,800 people ahead of them in the preference points race. Even if future applicant numbers stay static, at 1190 per year, a first time applicant in six years will have over 6800 more people ahead of them than a first time applicant this year.  And that also includes removing the top six point categories out of the system.  Realistically, some of them will also still be in the system and be ahead of a first time applicant. Add to that the fact that the preference points are weighted and you can see how disadvantaged a first time applicant will be in six years.  Most of those first time applicants will never be drawn. And as the years go by, the few successful applicants will be older and older as the number of high preference point applicants swells. The game is stacked. But by adding preference points and letting people apply for 4 different moose hunts, it gives the impression that you might have a good chance to draw. All that does is attract more people to the draw, making more money each draw, but making the odds of being drawn even worse. If you are looking to encourage new hunters, disenfranchising them before they ever start is not the way to go about it.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: brew on February 15, 2014, 10:34:02 PM
oh come on, somebody with one point cant draw and we all know it.
sorry to be the buzz kill but back in 2006 I drew the 49 degrees north tag with only one point....saw 5 moose the opening day and shot a bull that was chasing a cow that evening.....wasn't a monster but the spread was 43 1/2"......it can be done
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: lhrbull on February 16, 2014, 08:56:20 AM
so the only species they don't square points for is the sheep?
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bob33 on February 16, 2014, 09:01:09 AM
"Add to that the fact that the preference points are weighted and you can see how disadvantaged a first time applicant will be in six years. Most of those first time applicants will never be drawn. And as the years go by, the few successful applicants will be older and older as the number of high preference point applicants swells. The game is stacked. But by adding preference points and letting people apply for 4 different moose hunts, it gives the impression that you might have a good chance to draw. All that does is attract more people to the draw, making more money each draw, but making the odds of being drawn even worse. If you are looking to encourage new hunters, disenfranchising them before they ever start is not the way to go about it."

I agree. Its just like the lottery: the system is intended to make money and has very few winners.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Bob33 on February 16, 2014, 09:10:03 AM
so the only species they don't square points for is the sheep?
Bighorn sheep are no different than other species. Points are squared.
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: BullMagnet76 on February 16, 2014, 06:54:50 PM
First choice 49, second choice Huckleberry, third choice Aladdin, fourth choice Selkirk. :twocents:


 :yeah:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: PolarBear on February 16, 2014, 07:17:15 PM
I missed this one and he's still there.... mt Spokane South  :bash:
Hey Annette, I saw a picture of you and your moose in Northwest Sporstman Magazine.  Congrats!!
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: Biggerhammer on February 24, 2014, 05:56:27 PM
oh come on, somebody with one point cant draw and we all know it.
sorry to be the buzz kill but back in 2006 I drew the 49 degrees north tag with only one point....saw 5 moose the opening day and shot a bull that was chasing a cow that evening.....wasn't a monster but the spread was 43 1/2"......it can be done

Awesome! :tup:
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: stew pidasso on March 01, 2014, 02:51:22 PM
Is kettle mostly private or what. Its right next to selkirks and the border so why doesn't anybody feeltthat would be a first choice?
Title: Re: best draw for moose unit wise
Post by: huntnnw on March 02, 2014, 10:44:24 PM
Lots of public in Kettle range...some of the biggest bulls I have ever seen are in this unit

My buddy drew Mt spokane the first year he applied
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