best draw for moose unit wise

[Bob33]

"I just added up the numbers for Hangman and got 166,592/7/361 = 1:66 for someone with 19 points.  If you also applied for three of the other less popular units (Kettle, Three Forks, etc.), overall odds with four choices should be down in the 1:25 range."

A person with 19 points, assume he lives long enough does have some hope of drawing in his lifetime if he puts in for multiple units every year. Still, he would have to put in with the with 1 in 25 odds for 17 years to get to a 50/50 chance of drawing. Anyone with less than 19 points obviously has worse odds.

Besides tag numbers and number of applicants, points creep could have a huge impact over time.  Wonder what the trend is?

See this post for WA moose: http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,144901.msg1926481.html#msg1926481

In the example used, odds for the hunter with max points would go from 1 in 118 to 1 in 130 if everyone moved up one point, and no applicants were added or dropped out.

In most Western states, points creep is hurting applicants with high point numbers.

I expect that as more and more hunters become aware of how poor draw odds actually are in many cases, applications will decline which would improve odds.

[WAcoueshunter]

Thinking about the odds calculations, the one problem with adding up the four different application choices is that all of the hunts are really just part of one big pool the way they run the draw.

Take Hangman for example.  Of those 2256 (out of 20,597 total) that applied for Hangman as one of their four choices, some of the successful applicants with Hangman as one of their four choices will have put 49DN, Selkirk, Huckleberry, etc., as a higher choice.  I wouldn't doubt that most of the 2256 put something else as their first or second choices.  Who knows how many Hangman applicants were successful in the draw overall, but you can bet it was significantly more than the 7 that wound up with Hangman tags.  There are 75 non-Hangman tags, so let's assume that all the other tags went first.  If only 10% of the pool had Hangman listed (about right), they could go an extra 70 names or so before filling those last seven tags.  If that were the case, you'd only need to be one of the top 145 or so names out of the hat to draw the Hangman tag.   

20,597 applicants x 8.25 points = 1,401,883 names in the hat / 361 for someone with 19 points / 145 = 1:26 odds.

I'm picking on Hangman, and maybe its Kettle, Three Forks or somewhere else that is the last tag to go.  The point is, if you just want a tag, you need to put the easiest to draw tags on your list.  Someone with 19 points should be able to get down near the 1:25 range. 

[idahohuntr]

Yea, this was my hang up to Bob's more simplified calculation of cumulative odds...the way the draw works there is not independence in the events...maybe he is still correct...and certainly if each moose hunt was an independent draw he is exactly correct...and given that so few tags are handed out maybe it doesn't make much of a difference.   

[Bob33]

Yea, this was my hang up to Bob's more simplified calculation of cumulative odds...the way the draw works there is not independence in the events...maybe he is still correct...and certainly if each moose hunt was an independent draw he is exactly correct...and given that so few tags are handed out maybe it doesn't make much of a difference. 

IF there were quite a few tags/permits relative to the number of applicants, it would be a factor. There were 75 "any moose" permits given out for 19,000 applicants. As each one draws, his names are "eliminated from the hat" which improves the odds of remaining applicants but not by very much due to the small number of tags.

[whacker1]

Yea, this was my hang up to Bob's more simplified calculation of cumulative odds...the way the draw works there is not independence in the events...maybe he is still correct...and certainly if each moose hunt was an independent draw he is exactly correct...and given that so few tags are handed out maybe it doesn't make much of a difference. 

IF there were quite a few tags/permits relative to the number of applicants, it would be a factor. There were 75 "any moose" permits given out for 19,000 applicants. As each one draws, his names are "eliminated from the hat" which improves the odds of remaining applicants but not by very much due to the small number of tags.

there are more new young people coming into the equation than there are being eliminated by drawing.  Even if 75 people at max points were eliminated 75x19=1425.  I would be willing to wager that there are more than 1425 first year applicants coming into the draw to keep the draw odds in check rather than favoring each of us with higher point numbers.  Just my two cents

[WSU]

Except that points are squared, meaning the "names in the hat" removed would be 19X19X75=27,075.

[deaner]

breaking down the draw odds is equal parts confusing and depressing.

[whacker1]

Except that points are squared, meaning the "names in the hat" removed would be 19X19X75=27,075.

Oops, small math error.  So the number of new applications and increasing applications would have to override the 27k that are leaving the pool.   I guess all you can do is total the numbers year over year based on averages to see what the total might look like.

[Falcon]

I am in WAY too deep to look back!

[Bob33]

Except that points are squared, meaning the "names in the hat" removed would be 19X19X75=27,075.

Only if those with 19 points draw. Someone with 1 point could draw which removes 1 name from the hat.

[deaner]

oh come on, somebody with one point cant draw and we all know it.

[bradslam]

oh come on, somebody with one point cant draw and we all know it.

And you base this on...?

[deaner]

oh come on, somebody with one point cant draw and we all know it.

And you base this on...?

my own *censored* luck? 

[Mr Mykiss]

What would be the best unit to apply for with 8 points?

[huntnnw]

they are all good and all hold big bulls..worry about drawing first.