best draw for moose unit wise

[finnman]

If you really want, and I mean really want to hunt moose then you need to just apply in Idaho, cough up the $2,200 bucks and get the tag, some very easy draw odds for decent bulls.

[Bob33]

If you really want, and I mean really want to hunt moose then you need to just apply in Idaho, cough up the $2,200 bucks and get the tag, some very easy draw odds for decent bulls.

The sooner, the better. I just read this "letter to the editor" in an outdoor magazine. Coming soon to a state near you....

[bearpaw]

  excellent post bob!

I would have voted Selkirk in the past, but wolves are already impacting that herd and moose numbers are dropping. Another unit in decline is Kettle Range, the moose have been hit hard by wolves in several areas of this unit.

Currently I will vote 49 Degrees, Hangman, Mt Spokane, and Huckleberry as having the most concentrated moose numbers.

But, this is going to change as the wolves are hitting the moose pretty good in Huckleberry and more wolves are moving into 49 degrees.

[boneaddict]

I was extremely disappointed in my photo ops this year in Hangman and the Idaho side of it.   Definitely a decline.    Its pretty sad as the moose were a success story, but another user groups success story is now capitalizing on it.

[bearpaw]

I was extremely disappointed in my photo ops this year in Hangman and the Idaho side of it.   Definitely a decline.    Its pretty sad as the moose were a success story, but another user groups success story is now capitalizing on it.

I hadn't heard that about hangman yet, very sorry to hear. 

[boneaddict]

The wolves moved into the Idaho side of Mica, and they go where their food is, as you know, the  stateline means nothing.

[WAcoueshunter]

With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.

Definitely good advice, although I'm not sure about the math. 

In 2012, there were 13,068 49DN applicants with an average of 6 points, or 470,448 total numbers in the draw.  Divide by 21 49DN tags, equals 22,402 numbers in the draw per tag.  Someone with 19 points would have 361 numbers in the draw.  22,402/361 = 62, or 1:62 odds.

If that same person put in for three other units, his/her overall odds would get down to 1:15 or so.

[bobcat]

There's no possible way moose odds ever get close to 1 in 15. But I sure wish that were true!

[WAcoueshunter]

There's no possible way moose odds ever get close to 1 in 15. But I sure wish that were true!

Feel free to point out where the math is incorrect.  I'm not a statistician, but I think that math gets you pretty close.  Also, if you just eyeball the point totals, those guys at the top are in the 1:30 range.  10 successful applicants out of 372 applications with 18 points, 7 out of 244 with 16 points, etc.  Could be that some of those guys don't put in for all four choices, which would lower their odds.  Could be that my math is a little off somewhere.  Either way, it's a whole lot lower than 1:125.

[Bob33]

With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.

Definitely good advice, although I'm not sure about the math. 

In 2012, there were 13,068 49DN applicants with an average of 6 points, or 470,448 total numbers in the draw.  Divide by 21 49DN tags, equals 22,402 numbers in the draw per tag.  Someone with 19 points would have 361 numbers in the draw.  22,402/361 = 62, or 1:62 odds.

If that same person put in for three other units, his/her overall odds would get down to 1:15 or so.

Average points don't work for this. You need to compute "names in the hat" individually.  There were 890,434 names in the hat for 49 DN. See below. Example - for the three applicants with 19 points, there were 1083 names in the hat: 19^2 x 3.

Points   Applications   Names
19   3   1083
18   5   1620
17   332   95948
16   189   48384
15   203   45675
14   568   111328
13   568   95992
12   584   84096
11   617   74657
10   677   67700
9   847   68607
8   860   55040
7   875   42875
6   992   35712
5   1095   27375
4   1130   18080
3   1148   10332
2   1185   4740
1   1190   1190
Totals   13068   890434

[idahohuntr]

There's no possible way moose odds ever get close to 1 in 15. But I sure wish that were true!

Ummm, okay.  Feel free to point out where the math is incorrect.  I'm not a statistician, but I think that math gets you pretty close.

Your average points calculation is incorrect...there were approximately 890,000 "names in the hat" for the 49 moose tag in 2012...not 470k. 

I am really uncertain how best to go about cumulative probabilities with putting in for 4 moose hunts...it is definitely in your interest to do so...1:15 does seem too low...just looking at the distribution of tags for "max" points holders it has hovered around 1:35-1:40...which is acutally quite a bit lower (better) odds than I would have expected...maybe in some scenarios your odds approach 1:15 

I think with the OIL species draw odds are kind of pointless (pun intended)    

[Bob33]

"I am really uncertain how best to go about cumulative probabilities with putting in for 4 moose hunts...it is definitely in your interest to do so"

Here's how. First, compute the odds of not drawing any of the four.

The odds of not drawing the first choice is 1 - 'odds of drawing'.  For sake of discussion, let's assume all four units have a 1 in 100 chance. That means the chance of not drawing the first choice = 1 - .01 = .99.  The odds of not drawing the second choice is .99. Same for the third and four.

Therefore the odds of not drawing any of the four is .99 x .99 x .99 x .99 = approximately .9606. The odds of drawing one of them is thus 1 - .9606 or about .0394.

Some people mistakenly believe that you can add individual probabilites. It's easy to see the falacity of this if you consider a coin flip. The odds of flipping heads is 50%. However, flipping the coin twice does not produce a 100% chance of getting heads.

Using the reverse method is often the easiest way to solve this problem.

[WAcoueshunter]

With maximum points (19) the odds of drawing a 49 Degree North tag are currently about 1 in 125. I think the best advice is to apply for as many units as possible (currently four) each year. If drawn in any unit, you will find quality moose.

Definitely good advice, although I'm not sure about the math. 

In 2012, there were 13,068 49DN applicants with an average of 6 points, or 470,448 total numbers in the draw.  Divide by 21 49DN tags, equals 22,402 numbers in the draw per tag.  Someone with 19 points would have 361 numbers in the draw.  22,402/361 = 62, or 1:62 odds.

If that same person put in for three other units, his/her overall odds would get down to 1:15 or so.

Average points don't work for this. You need to compute "names in the hat" individually.  There were 890,434 names in the hat for 49 DN. See below. Example - for the three applicants with 19 points, there were 1083 names in the hat: 19^2 x 3.

Points   Applications   Names
19   3   1083
18   5   1620
17   332   95948
16   189   48384
15   203   45675
14   568   111328
13   568   95992
12   584   84096
11   617   74657
10   677   67700
9   847   68607
8   860   55040
7   875   42875
6   992   35712
5   1095   27375
4   1130   18080
3   1148   10332
2   1185   4740
1   1190   1190
Totals   13068   890434

Yes, the average I used is off.   I assumed 6 (for all moose applicants), but it appears to be closer to 8.  The average 49DN applicant has 8.255 points, so odds for someone with 19 points would be 890,434/21/361 = 1:117. 

I just added up the numbers for Hangman and got 166,592/7/361 = 1:66 for someone with 19 points.  If you also applied for three of the other less popular units (Kettle, Three Forks, etc.), overall odds with four choices should be down in the 1:25 range.

[Bob33]

"I just added up the numbers for Hangman and got 166,592/7/361 = 1:66 for someone with 19 points.  If you also applied for three of the other less popular units (Kettle, Three Forks, etc.), overall odds with four choices should be down in the 1:25 range."

A person with 19 points, assume he lives long enough does have some hope of drawing in his lifetime if he puts in for multiple units every year. Still, he would have to put in with the with 1 in 25 odds for 17 years to get to a 50/50 chance of drawing. Anyone with less than 19 points obviously has worse odds.

[WAcoueshunter]

"I just added up the numbers for Hangman and got 166,592/7/361 = 1:66 for someone with 19 points.  If you also applied for three of the other less popular units (Kettle, Three Forks, etc.), overall odds with four choices should be down in the 1:25 range."

A person with 19 points, assume he lives long enough does have some hope of drawing in his lifetime if he puts in for multiple units every year. Still, he would have to put in with the with 1 in 25 odds for 17 years to get to a 50/50 chance of drawing. Anyone with less than 19 points obviously has worse odds.

Besides tag numbers and number of applicants, points creep could have a huge impact over time.  Wonder what the trend is?