collapse

Advertisement


Author Topic: Oregon Seed numbers 2024  (Read 3364 times)

Offline Doublelunger

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 1107
  • Location: Pacific NW
Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« on: May 28, 2024, 04:15:17 PM »
Oregon drew the seed numbers today. If anyone wants to geek out and do some math you can get a decent idea if you're going to draw or not.


Offline youngbuckslayer

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hunter
  • ***
  • Join Date: Sep 2010
  • Posts: 162
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2024, 04:45:27 PM »
Always been confused on that how exactly do you figure it out

Offline Doublelunger

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 1107
  • Location: Pacific NW
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2024, 05:32:32 PM »
Always been confused on that how exactly do you figure it out

Look at your application #. The closer to the seed number the better. You can look at how many applicants there were last year and figure out roughly what the distribution is then multiply that by the number of tags. If you app number is within that range you have a good shot. Example: say you apply for a tag that had 700 applicants last year and they give away 50 tags then I'd do this. 10,000,000 possible app numbers divided by 700 applicants equals a distribution of 14,285 between applicants. Multiply that by the 50 tags given out and it equals 714,285. So if the seed number for that series was 3,000,000 then your app # would need to be between 3,000,000 and 3,714,285. This assumes a perfectly even distribution which never happens.It gets even more confusing if you don't have max points. There's an awesome website that breaks it down by points.

https://oregontags.com/?fbclid=IwAR0aRnoqHWgptgJyhCD4eyerG61Vr_PzFK_E2wbsHdxsrCdLNE-e99y9iqU

Another example. I applied for E Whitehorse buck with 0 points. According to this resource zero points has a 32% chance of drawing. My app # is 6,639,530. The seed # is 3,633,092. That's a difference of 3,006,438. So..3,006,438/10,000,000= %30. So basically my app number puts me in the top 30% so if the top 32% draw line predicted then I should get it.

I suck at explaining. Are you thoroughly confused?

Offline trophyhunt

  • Forum Sponsor
  • Trade Count: (+11)
  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2008
  • Posts: 19049
  • Location: Wetside
  • Groups: Wa Wild Sheep Life Member
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2024, 05:41:42 PM »
Even more confused!!!! Lol
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline Doublelunger

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 1107
  • Location: Pacific NW
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2024, 06:03:26 PM »
I will say I've done the math for the last 7 years on 7 applications and it's been right 49 out of 49 times.

Offline mp.hunter

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Longhunter
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2010
  • Posts: 580
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2024, 06:58:51 PM »
Do you want your app # to be below the seed #?
I can’t remember


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Doublelunger

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 1107
  • Location: Pacific NW
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2024, 07:09:43 PM »
Do you want your app # to be below the seed #?
I can’t remember


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


You want your app # to be above the seed#. The closer the better.

Offline mp.hunter

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Longhunter
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2010
  • Posts: 580
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2024, 07:10:16 PM »
Do you want your app # to be below the seed #?
I can’t remember


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


You want your app # to be above the seed#. The closer the better.
Thanks


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Crunchy

  • Political & Covid-19 Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Frontiersman
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2007
  • Posts: 4850
  • Location: Puyallup
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2024, 07:19:46 PM »
mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Offline trophyhunt

  • Forum Sponsor
  • Trade Count: (+11)
  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2008
  • Posts: 19049
  • Location: Wetside
  • Groups: Wa Wild Sheep Life Member
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2024, 07:30:10 PM »
I did this last year, took me about 2 weeks just to find my app #.   Lol
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline ShaneTyTrey

  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Mar 2012
  • Posts: 1729
  • Location: Richland, Wa
  • Is there anything better than hunting?
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2024, 07:33:27 PM »
Not good numbers for me.  We all have zero chance!

Offline trophyhunt

  • Forum Sponsor
  • Trade Count: (+11)
  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2008
  • Posts: 19049
  • Location: Wetside
  • Groups: Wa Wild Sheep Life Member
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2024, 07:41:33 PM »
Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973.  So you’re saying I have a chance!!!  🤣🤣
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline pickardjw

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Oct 2019
  • Posts: 1554
  • Location: Pendleton, OR
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2024, 08:11:29 PM »
Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.

2023 First Choice Applicants = 629

9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898

15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230

Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092

3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322

My App # = 5,666,941

So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.

Offline Crunchy

  • Political & Covid-19 Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Frontiersman
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2007
  • Posts: 4850
  • Location: Puyallup
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2024, 08:37:58 PM »
Wonder how the NON resident gets figured into this math??

Offline Doublelunger

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 1107
  • Location: Pacific NW
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2024, 09:10:07 PM »
mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?

Offline Crunchy

  • Political & Covid-19 Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Frontiersman
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2007
  • Posts: 4850
  • Location: Puyallup
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2024, 09:14:23 PM »
mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?

Does it matter if only 5% of tags go to non-res for all 200 series

Offline millerwheeler

  • Trade Count: (+4)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Jun 2014
  • Posts: 1420
  • Location: Spanaway
  • Get out and put some miles on those boots
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2024, 09:21:18 PM »
This is all so confusing lol I’ll just wait for the disappointment
« Last Edit: May 29, 2024, 06:05:01 AM by millerwheeler »

Offline Doublelunger

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 1107
  • Location: Pacific NW
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2024, 09:32:40 PM »
Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.

2023 First Choice Applicants = 629

9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898

15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230

Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092

3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322

My App # = 5,666,941

So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.

Well it looks like chesnimus gives 22 tags to non residents. Last year there were 30 non res applicants. You have to search for the points summary reports to get that number. Its not in the regs.
https://myodfw.com/articles/point-summary-reports

But 'd go: 10,000,000÷30=333,333×22=7,333,333, add that to the seed number(3,633,092) and roll it over and you get 0,926,425. So ya if your app number is between 3,633,092 and 0,926,425 then you should be good to go.

Offline Doublelunger

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 1107
  • Location: Pacific NW
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2024, 09:38:58 PM »
mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?

Does it matter if only 5% of tags go to non-res for all 200 series


Depends on what you put in for. Still some 200 series hunts that are 100% for non res.

Offline Ricochet

  • Political & Covid-19 Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Longhunter
  • *****
  • Join Date: Jan 2009
  • Posts: 877
  • Location: Oregon
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2024, 09:55:36 PM »
Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973.  So you’re saying I have a chance!!!  🤣🤣

I let Ron Wold do the math at https://oregontags.com/ If he says you have, for example, a 10% chance of drawing at your point level then you need to be 10% or less above the seed number, which is less than 1,000,000 over the number. In your case, Trophyhunt you are 17.4% over the seed number. Check and see what Ron says your chances are. It's worked for me every time and no calculator needed.  Probably less accurate for non-residents because it doesn't take much of a swing in application numbers to skew the results but as a resident, it's been spot on for me.
It is not my duty to validate your delusions.

Offline trophyhunt

  • Forum Sponsor
  • Trade Count: (+11)
  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2008
  • Posts: 19049
  • Location: Wetside
  • Groups: Wa Wild Sheep Life Member
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2024, 10:20:08 PM »
Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973.  So you’re saying I have a chance!!!  🤣🤣

I let Ron Wold do the math at https://oregontags.com/ If he says you have, for example, a 10% chance of drawing at your point level then you need to be 10% or less above the seed number, which is less than 1,000,000 over the number. In your case, Trophyhunt you are 17.4% over the seed number. Check and see what Ron says your chances are. It's worked for me every time and no calculator needed.  Probably less accurate for non-residents because it doesn't take much of a swing in application numbers to skew the results but as a resident, it's been spot on for me.
thanks, still confusing as heck though.
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline pickardjw

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Oct 2019
  • Posts: 1554
  • Location: Pendleton, OR
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #21 on: May 29, 2024, 05:53:43 AM »
Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.

2023 First Choice Applicants = 629

9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898

15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230

Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092

3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322

My App # = 5,666,941

So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.

Well it looks like chesnimus gives 22 tags to non residents. Last year there were 30 non res applicants. You have to search for the points summary reports to get that number. Its not in the regs.
https://myodfw.com/articles/point-summary-reports

But 'd go: 10,000,000÷30=333,333×22=7,333,333, add that to the seed number(3,633,092) and roll it over and you get 0,926,425. So ya if your app number is between 3,633,092 and 0,926,425 then you should be good to go.

Ahh, that’s how you do non-res. Gotcha.

Offline trophyhunt

  • Forum Sponsor
  • Trade Count: (+11)
  • Explorer
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2008
  • Posts: 19049
  • Location: Wetside
  • Groups: Wa Wild Sheep Life Member
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #22 on: May 29, 2024, 08:37:04 AM »
I watched the Oregon drawing live yesterday for the raffle tickets, that is pretty cool!  I’d love to see Wa do the same thing. When they get down to about 10-15 people for each tag, their names are floating around on the screen, it would be exciting to see your name bouncing around. 
“In common with”..... not so much!!

Offline bigfish51

  • Political & Covid-19 Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hunter
  • ***
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 100
  • Location: East side
  • Groups: RMEF
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #23 on: May 29, 2024, 09:45:33 AM »
Oh so close!  My son's # is 532 under the elk seed #.  Dang it!  Wish he was 532 over, he'd be in great shape for a tag.  Oh well!  Not even close on the rest of the seed #'s, so it looks like it will be points accumulated again this year in OR.  Good luck to all of you.

Offline Ricochet

  • Political & Covid-19 Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Longhunter
  • *****
  • Join Date: Jan 2009
  • Posts: 877
  • Location: Oregon
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #24 on: May 29, 2024, 11:03:47 AM »
Missed the bighorn number by a country mile, starting to think somebody up there doesn't like me since I've been applying since 1968 and still no luck.  :bash:
It is not my duty to validate your delusions.

Offline Elkfever

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hunter
  • ***
  • Join Date: May 2009
  • Posts: 203
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #25 on: May 29, 2024, 10:35:38 PM »
18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance?  😬

Offline mp.hunter

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Longhunter
  • *****
  • Join Date: Apr 2010
  • Posts: 580
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #26 on: May 30, 2024, 06:55:45 AM »
18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance? 
I hope you get it, I was in the same boat 2 years ago only 18,000 and change and I did not get I was very confused


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Elkfever

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hunter
  • ***
  • Join Date: May 2009
  • Posts: 203
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #27 on: May 30, 2024, 07:35:33 AM »
Yeah, I’ve never been this close before but also feel like it could still be a long shot.  If nothing else, I’ll enjoy the anticipation before the draw. 

Offline Doublelunger

  • Non-Hunting Topics
  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2011
  • Posts: 1107
  • Location: Pacific NW
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #28 on: May 31, 2024, 06:53:20 AM »
18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance?  😬

300 people put in for pine creek premium last year. Assuming an even distribution that's 33,333 between applicants. So if you were to also assume the same number of applicants this year that would mean you have a very realistic chance.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2024, 07:19:04 AM by Doublelunger »

Offline CNELK

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Scout
  • ****
  • Join Date: Aug 2013
  • Posts: 280
  • Location: Vancouver
  • Groups: RMEF
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #29 on: May 31, 2024, 07:44:40 AM »
According to the math, I have about a 13% chance, which is a long shot at my premium deer tag. I’m 130,936 off


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Offline Browndawg

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Hunter
  • ***
  • Join Date: Dec 2015
  • Posts: 120
  • Location: Camas
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #30 on: June 03, 2024, 04:57:30 PM »
I think you have the equation wrong. You have to multiply by how many tags are available in the 25% pool. Not the entire hunt. Also, if you are a non-resident, and don't have enough points to draw in the 75% pool, don't count on there being any tags left for non-residents in the 25% pool. Basically, what I'm saying is, multiply your final number by zero, and that is the chance you have to draw

Offline redi

  • Trade Count: (+48)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2011
  • Posts: 1848
  • Location: centralia
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #31 on: June 06, 2024, 01:26:39 PM »
When will the results post?

Offline go4steelhd

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sourdough
  • *****
  • Join Date: Dec 2012
  • Posts: 1342
  • Location: Behind the crosshairs
  • MT Wild Sheep Foundation Life Time Member
  • Groups: go4steelhd
Re: Oregon Seed numbers 2024
« Reply #32 on: June 06, 2024, 02:17:59 PM »
When will the results post?


Most Likely the 12th
NW__HUNTER Instagram

 


* Advertisement

* Recent Topics

Commissioner of Public Lands 2024 by spin05
[Today at 01:08:04 AM]


Brewster by Caseyd
[Yesterday at 11:54:07 PM]


Name that animal! by addicted1
[Yesterday at 11:31:56 PM]


Grizz attacks huckleberry picker by elkslayer069
[Yesterday at 10:07:04 PM]


Huckleberry early bull moose by Bonnie
[Yesterday at 09:30:26 PM]


East Okanogan Quality by Birdguy
[Yesterday at 08:19:53 PM]


2024 Mountain View Rifle Quality Bull by andersonjk4
[Yesterday at 08:18:59 PM]


Friday's Commission vote on WOlves and Cougar by dwils233
[Yesterday at 07:17:14 PM]


Experience with 35 Whelen ? by zwickeyman
[Yesterday at 06:07:01 PM]


Area 11 Opener Next Week? by trophyhunt
[Yesterday at 04:55:09 PM]


Any bull moose moved from Spokane north to Spokane west by mountainman
[Yesterday at 03:20:40 PM]


Electronic Torque wrenches by Rob
[Yesterday at 02:44:51 PM]


Any local taxidermists? by livin4fishin
[Yesterday at 02:44:13 PM]


Blinds Tip & Tricks by ghosthunter
[Yesterday at 01:04:19 PM]


Wall Tents Tips and Tricks by ghosthunter
[Yesterday at 12:33:09 PM]


Hiding by hunter399
[Yesterday at 11:32:51 AM]


Hunter399/2024 pics by hunter399
[Yesterday at 11:11:40 AM]


Best place to buy high end optics? by Nate Ortloff
[Yesterday at 10:36:31 AM]


2024 WSTA ANNUAL SUMMER RENDEZVOUS SCHEDULE by Frank The Tank
[Yesterday at 09:38:29 AM]


Got my 2023 archery Speed Goat back from Taxidermist by Bob33
[Yesterday at 08:31:21 AM]

SimplePortal 2.3.7 © 2008-2024, SimplePortal