Oregon Seed numbers 2024

[Doublelunger]

Oregon drew the seed numbers today. If anyone wants to geek out and do some math you can get a decent idea if you're going to draw or not.

[youngbuckslayer]

Always been confused on that how exactly do you figure it out

[Doublelunger]

Always been confused on that how exactly do you figure it out

Look at your application #. The closer to the seed number the better. You can look at how many applicants there were last year and figure out roughly what the distribution is then multiply that by the number of tags. If you app number is within that range you have a good shot. Example: say you apply for a tag that had 700 applicants last year and they give away 50 tags then I'd do this. 10,000,000 possible app numbers divided by 700 applicants equals a distribution of 14,285 between applicants. Multiply that by the 50 tags given out and it equals 714,285. So if the seed number for that series was 3,000,000 then your app # would need to be between 3,000,000 and 3,714,285. This assumes a perfectly even distribution which never happens.It gets even more confusing if you don't have max points. There's an awesome website that breaks it down by points.

https://oregontags.com/?fbclid=IwAR0aRnoqHWgptgJyhCD4eyerG61Vr_PzFK_E2wbsHdxsrCdLNE-e99y9iqU

Another example. I applied for E Whitehorse buck with 0 points. According to this resource zero points has a 32% chance of drawing. My app # is 6,639,530. The seed # is 3,633,092. That's a difference of 3,006,438. So..3,006,438/10,000,000= %30. So basically my app number puts me in the top 30% so if the top 32% draw line predicted then I should get it.

I suck at explaining. Are you thoroughly confused?

[trophyhunt]

Even more confused!!!! Lol

[Doublelunger]

I will say I've done the math for the last 7 years on 7 applications and it's been right 49 out of 49 times.

[mp.hunter]

Do you want your app # to be below the seed #?
I can’t remember


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[Doublelunger]

Do you want your app # to be below the seed #?
I can’t remember


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You want your app # to be above the seed#. The closer the better.

[mp.hunter]

Do you want your app # to be below the seed #?
I can’t remember


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You want your app # to be above the seed#. The closer the better.

Thanks


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[Crunchy]

mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

[trophyhunt]

I did this last year, took me about 2 weeks just to find my app #.   Lol

[ShaneTyTrey]

Not good numbers for me.  We all have zero chance!

[trophyhunt]

Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973.  So you’re saying I have a chance!!!  🤣🤣

[pickardjw]

Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.

2023 First Choice Applicants = 629

9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898

15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230

Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092

3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322

My App # = 5,666,941

So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.

[Crunchy]

Wonder how the NON resident gets figured into this math??

[Doublelunger]

mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?

[Crunchy]

mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?

Does it matter if only 5% of tags go to non-res for all 200 series

[millerwheeler]

This is all so confusing lol I’ll just wait for the disappointment

[Doublelunger]

Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.

2023 First Choice Applicants = 629

9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898

15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230

Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092

3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322

My App # = 5,666,941

So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.

Well it looks like chesnimus gives 22 tags to non residents. Last year there were 30 non res applicants. You have to search for the points summary reports to get that number. Its not in the regs.
https://myodfw.com/articles/point-summary-reports

But 'd go: 10,000,000÷30=333,333×22=7,333,333, add that to the seed number(3,633,092) and roll it over and you get 0,926,425. So ya if your app number is between 3,633,092 and 0,926,425 then you should be good to go.

[Doublelunger]

mine is 0795,352 for 200 series elk.  IM SCREWED

Which hunt did you apply for? Res or non res?

Does it matter if only 5% of tags go to non-res for all 200 series

Depends on what you put in for. Still some 200 series hunts that are 100% for non res.

[Ricochet]

Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973.  So you’re saying I have a chance!!!  🤣🤣

I let Ron Wold do the math at https://oregontags.com/ If he says you have, for example, a 10% chance of drawing at your point level then you need to be 10% or less above the seed number, which is less than 1,000,000 over the number. In your case, Trophyhunt you are 17.4% over the seed number. Check and see what Ron says your chances are. It's worked for me every time and no calculator needed.  Probably less accurate for non-residents because it doesn't take much of a swing in application numbers to skew the results but as a resident, it's been spot on for me.

[trophyhunt]

Math guys, the difference between my app# and the elk seed, is 1,747,973.  So you’re saying I have a chance!!!  🤣🤣

I let Ron Wold do the math at https://oregontags.com/ If he says you have, for example, a 10% chance of drawing at your point level then you need to be 10% or less above the seed number, which is less than 1,000,000 over the number. In your case, Trophyhunt you are 17.4% over the seed number. Check and see what Ron says your chances are. It's worked for me every time and no calculator needed.  Probably less accurate for non-residents because it doesn't take much of a swing in application numbers to skew the results but as a resident, it's been spot on for me.

thanks, still confusing as heck though.

[pickardjw]

Okay I think I follow this. For my 100 series rifle buck tag in the Ches.

2023 First Choice Applicants = 629

9,999,999 / 629 = 15,898

15,898 x 440 tags = 6,995,230

Buck Deer 100 Series Seed # = 3,633,092

3,633,092 + 6,995,230 (less 9,999,999 for overlapping) = 0,658,322

My App # = 5,666,941

So I should be in. And that website is showing 100% odds for non-res with 2 points which is where I'm at. Pretty neat.

Well it looks like chesnimus gives 22 tags to non residents. Last year there were 30 non res applicants. You have to search for the points summary reports to get that number. Its not in the regs.
https://myodfw.com/articles/point-summary-reports

But 'd go: 10,000,000÷30=333,333×22=7,333,333, add that to the seed number(3,633,092) and roll it over and you get 0,926,425. So ya if your app number is between 3,633,092 and 0,926,425 then you should be good to go.

Ahh, that’s how you do non-res. Gotcha.

[trophyhunt]

I watched the Oregon drawing live yesterday for the raffle tickets, that is pretty cool!  I’d love to see Wa do the same thing. When they get down to about 10-15 people for each tag, their names are floating around on the screen, it would be exciting to see your name bouncing around. 

[bigfish51]

Oh so close!  My son's # is 532 under the elk seed #.  Dang it!  Wish he was 532 over, he'd be in great shape for a tag.  Oh well!  Not even close on the rest of the seed #'s, so it looks like it will be points accumulated again this year in OR.  Good luck to all of you.

[Ricochet]

Missed the bighorn number by a country mile, starting to think somebody up there doesn't like me since I've been applying since 1968 and still no luck. 

[Elkfever]

18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance?  😬

[mp.hunter]

18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance? 

I hope you get it, I was in the same boat 2 years ago only 18,000 and change and I did not get I was very confused


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[Elkfever]

Yeah, I’ve never been this close before but also feel like it could still be a long shot.  If nothing else, I’ll enjoy the anticipation before the draw. 

[Doublelunger]

18,494 over the premium elk seed number for Pine Creek.  Do I have a chance?  😬

300 people put in for pine creek premium last year. Assuming an even distribution that's 33,333 between applicants. So if you were to also assume the same number of applicants this year that would mean you have a very realistic chance.

[CNELK]

According to the math, I have about a 13% chance, which is a long shot at my premium deer tag. I’m 130,936 off


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[Browndawg]

I think you have the equation wrong. You have to multiply by how many tags are available in the 25% pool. Not the entire hunt. Also, if you are a non-resident, and don't have enough points to draw in the 75% pool, don't count on there being any tags left for non-residents in the 25% pool. Basically, what I'm saying is, multiply your final number by zero, and that is the chance you have to draw

[redi]

When will the results post?

[go4steelhd]

When will the results post?

Most Likely the 12th