Another question regarding WA special permits (points system)

[pd]

I know that this has been covered multiple times before.  I must have rocks between my ears, so I need to ask again.

I have no points in the WA tag system.  (I am lucky enough to be able to tag a deer pretty much every year in the modern rifle general season, so I have never needed to apply for a special permit.)

I am thinking of applying next month for a Spring bear tag.  I want to go hunting with a younger relative, and this would be a good experience for him.  (He doesn't have any points, either.)

My question regards the strategy for getting selected.  I have reviewed the areas that we would like to hunt, and we have covered the data for # of applicants, average # of points for tags drawn, # of hunters (declared) and # of animals bagged (declared).  I know the odds.

For Spring bear we get 4 choices, right?  Is there any difference if I submit 4 choices, or do my odds improve if I submit less than 4 choices?  (I know that the computer considers my choices in the order submitted, but what about the ODDS of being selected??)

Should my nephew and I submit separately?  (I wouldn't mind if he got a tag and I didn't--we would still camp together.)

I have already PM'd a few of you seasoned hunters.  Thanks for your advice, but I am kind of thick, and need more information.

[bobcat]

Apply separately. That will double the chance that ONE of you will be drawn.

Also apply for 4 hunts. That should improve your odds as well, as long as you don't care which unit you draw.

The actual odds of drawing are nearly impossible to calculate, because of the variable number of points that each applicant may have.

List your 4 choices in order of hardest to draw to easiest to draw. (just going by the number of applicants and the number of permits)

[pd]

Thank you, Bobcat.

I think that I have finally understood the system (after re-reading the WDFW Q&A several times).  So my partner and I have a better chance of one of us drawing a tag if we apply separately.  Without any banked points, we only get one (each) randomly generated number for the drawing.  Those who have banked points are exponentially advantaged--a person with 3 banked points would get 3^2 randomly generated numbers (in other words, 9 tries at the Brass Ring). 

And, what I finally understood from Bobcat is that we should list our hunt choice preferences in descending order from the most difficult to draw to the easiest to draw.  This is because--if our randomly generated number is selected--the computer will go through our entire choice list, and give us the first available tag; the most popular units fill up first, of course.

There!  I finally got it, right?

Thanks again to you all for looking.

[Ridgerunner]

You got it, only potential issue would be drawing in different units if you apply separately.

[bobcat]

Good point Ridgerunner.

[pd]

You got it, only potential issue would be drawing in different units if you apply separately.

Thanks again, RidgeRunner and Bobcat.

Understood. However, at this stage this would be like counting two birds in the bush rather than one bird in hand.  We will apply for adjoining units.  If by some lucky stoke we both get tags, but in different units, then we will just split up and hunt in our tagged areas, and share a camp.  That would not be such a bad thing.  Honestly, I would be happy with just one tag between the two of us, in any of the four areas.

As you can see, I am not picky.   

[fair-chase]

Hope I don't jack your thread here PD. Would it be possible to put all four choices down as the same hunt number? Thereby increasing your chances for a single unit. I guess this could go for any special permit category, not just bear.  Never tried it before but I don't see a rule prohibiting entering the same hunt number multiple times.

[pd]

Hope I don't jack your thread here PD. Would it be possible to put all four choices down as the same hunt number? Thereby increasing your chances for a single unit. I guess this could go for any special permit category, not just bear.  Never tried it before but I don't see a rule prohibiting entering the same hunt number multiple times.

Hi FairChase.  Don't worry about hijacking a thread.  No question should go un-answered!

If my understanding is correct (some of the old salts should comment!), you would gain ZERO advantage by doing that.  Here is why. 

The WDFW computer will take your Special Permit application, and assign you a random number.  If you have zero points banked, you get one application (that means that the computer will give you 1 randomly generated number).  If you had 2 points in the system when you applied, then you will receive a total of 9 randomly generated numbers (2 banked points, plus one for the 2013 application gives you 3, and then this 3 is squared, giving you 9 numbers).  The computer then keeps only the lowest number generated (and discards the other 8 numbers). 

Then, the computer goes through the entire list of randomly generated numbers (if there were 500 Spring bear hunters to have purchased the Special Permit application, then the computer starts with the lowest number out of the 500 hunters).  Next, the computer looks a this first selected hunter/application, and looks at your first choice.  If that choice is Hunt #7000 (for the GMU 101/Sherman unit) is #1 on your list, and if there are still tags available (out of the pool of 25), then you get a tag.

Do you see why your strategy would not work?  If your first choice (Hunt #7000) has already been filled, then the computer would go next to your second choice.  If this were also Hunt #7000, then the computer would skip to your third choice.

In other words, you would screw yourself with such a strategy.  You would be better off listing 4 separate choices.  Or, if you only want to hunt one (or two or three) units, then just list those. 

Do NOT duplicate hunt choices on your application.

Hey Old Hunters: Did I get this right?

[bobcat]

That's exactly right. Saved me some typing, and you explained it way better than I would have.

[pd]

That's exactly right. Saved me some typing, and you explained it way better than I would have.

Thanks for fact checking, Bobcat.

I realize that I made a mistake in a earlier post.  I said:

I think that I have finally understood the system (after re-reading the WDFW Q&A several times).  So my partner and I have a better chance of one of us drawing a tag if we apply separately.  Without any banked points, we only get one (each) randomly generated number for the drawing.  Those who have banked points are exponentially advantaged--a person with 3 banked points would get 3^2 randomly generated numbers (in other words, 9 tries at the Brass Ring). 


This is not correct.  For the hunter who starts with 3 banked points (from previous years of Special Hunt applications), then he would receive 16 randomly generated numbers (and not 9 like I said above).  This is because he gets 3 (from the bank) plus 1 (for the 2013 application), for a total of 4, and then the 4 is squared to get to 16.  Of course, the computer generates 16 randomly assigned numbers, and only the lowest number is kept.

Ahhh.  Feels so good.  Now, if I could only get a tag (with zero banked points).

[fair-chase]

Thanks PD. I did not know about the "lowest number generated" part of that. I thought it was a simple as names in a hat. Should have known better considering the source. 

[deaner]

ill be applying for my spring bear on the 2nd.  havent applied for it before, so ill only have one point, but the unit im applying for had an avg of 3pts for 2012 so im feeling kind of optimistic.         on another note, anybody know if theyre handing out the same number of multi season elk this year?