Top 5

[Wacenturion]

For deer I pick one and only one.  Have no interest in another unit.  If for some reason I changed my mind to say the Desert, it would still only one choice.  I do the same for elk.

If that is your strategy, well, you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. To maximize my odds I always apply for the maximum number of choices allowed, and I put them in order from hardest to easiest.

Not a strategy, it's what I prefer to do.  Chasing big whitetails in the rut is at the top of my list, always has been.  To tell you how much I enjoy them, well...I passed on an honest 190 plus buck back in 93' within the first 4 hours of my first day hunting in the Blues.  Watched him for over an hour tending a doe at 100 yards.  Passed because I planned on hunting for a least a week.  Dumb...perhaps.  My son who was with me and didn't have a permit named that deer "The *censored* Buck", because I was a *censored* to not shoot him.

 I've had opportunities at several 150-180 class bucks where I either passed or they screwed with my mind enough that I ended up telling myself..."Why did I do that....I know better".  That's whitetail hunting.

I like the Blues because I've put in the years to learn the area well and have made friends over the years with some of the locals.  However I spend a lot of time on property pretty much accessible to anyone.

Why would I want to burn a tag for something less desirable in my mind.  It's not about drawing whatever, it's all about quality and the experience I choose to have.

[huntnphool]

A lot of the hunt choices are migratory, which you you really can't scout out until just prior to the hunts.

You can be scouting them right now.

[Kola16]

I still think the state should make us choose one, one only

 

[fish vacuum]

I'd like to see it go west or east for deer too.

 

[grundy53]

If 16 people put in for 4 units and they only have 1 choice (for the sake of this argument they split up their choices evenly) that's 4 4 4 an 4. everyone has 25% chance of drawing. Now give those guys four choices. 16 16 16 and 16. Everyone now has a 6.25% chance of drawing. Bobcat, your saying that both scenarios have the same odds of drawing? Please correct me if I misunderstood you.

[grundy53]

I still think the state should make us choose one, one only

[bobcat]

If 16 people put in for 4 units and they only have 1 choice (for the sake of this argument they split up their choices evenly) that's 4 4 4 an 4. everyone has 25% chance of drawing. Now give those guys four choices. 16 16 16 and 16. Everyone now has a 6.25% chance of drawing. Bobcat, your saying that both scenarios have the same odds of drawing? Please correct me if I misunderstood you.

I don't know if you mis-understood me, but your math is wrong. 16 people applying for 4 hunts, is 16 divided by 4 which is 1 in 4 odds. It doesn't make any difference if they have 1 choice or 4 choices, the odds are still 1 in 4. Meaning 1 person out of 4 will draw a hunt.

[grundy53]

If 16 people put in for 4 units and they only have 1 choice (for the sake of this argument they split up their choices evenly) that's 4 4 4 an 4. everyone has 25% chance of drawing. Now give those guys four choices. 16 16 16 and 16. Everyone now has a 6.25% chance of drawing. Bobcat, your saying that both scenarios have the same odds of drawing? Please correct me if I misunderstood you.

I don't know if you mis-understood me, but your math is wrong. 16 people applying for 4 hunts, is 16 divided by 4 which is 1 in 4 odds. It doesn't make any difference if they have 1 choice or 4 choices, the odds are still 1 in 4. Meaning 1 person out of 4 will draw a hunt.

It wouldn't be 16 divided by four it would be 16 multiplied by 4 which is 64.  16 people have 4 choices each. Thats 64. not 4.

[huntnphool]

If 16 people put in for 4 units and they only have 1 choice (for the sake of this argument they split up their choices evenly) that's 4 4 4 an 4. everyone has 25% chance of drawing. Now give those guys four choices. 16 16 16 and 16. Everyone now has a 6.25% chance of drawing. Bobcat, your saying that both scenarios have the same odds of drawing? Please correct me if I misunderstood you.

I don't know if you mis-understood me, but your math is wrong. 16 people applying for 4 hunts, is 16 divided by 4 which is 1 in 4 odds. It doesn't make any difference if they have 1 choice or 4 choices, the odds are still 1 in 4. Meaning 1 person out of 4 will draw a hunt.

It wouldn't be 16 divided by four it would be 16 multiplied by 4 which is 64.  16 people have 4 choices each. Thats 64. not 4.

I think the two of you need to read each others posts more carefully, it might make it easier to understand each other.

[bobcat]

You're making it too complicated. How many people are there and how many permits? That's all that matters. Four people will be drawn for hunts, out of 16 people. That's 1 in 4 odds. No matter how the drawing works, the odds are the same.

[grundy53]

Obviously making it a smaller number to lessen the confusion doesn't work. Yes, your right if there are the exact same amount of people putting in for tags as there are choices available up to 16 then yes you are right. I should of caught that 4x4 =16 so my example doesn't work. But take my numbers and extrapolate the number of people putting in for the permits but leave the permit numbers the same. Which is how our current system is. so let's say 64 people only have one choice of 4 hunts and they are evenly distributed. That would be 16 16 16 and 16 which gives you a 6.25 percent chance of drawing. Now lets say the same 64 people get 4 choices. 64 64 64 and 64 = a 1.25 percent chance of drawing. Now that there isn't a tag per 4 choices it should be a little more clear....

[grundy53]

You're making it too complicated. How many people are there and how many permits? That's all that matters. Four people will be drawn for hunts, out of 16 people. That's 1 in 4 odds. No matter how the drawing works, the odds are the same.

The only way your math works is if there are the same amount of permits as there are applicants. If you increase the amount of applicants and keep the amount of permits available the same, inherently the odds will get worse. Therefore 4 choices per person is reducing the odds of you drawing a certain permit my 4.

[bobcat]

Again, I'm only looking at the number of applicants and the number of permits.

So you say there are 64 applicants, and 4 permits. That's 1 in 16 odds.

Meaning out of every 16 people that applied, 1 will draw a permit.

[WAcoueshunter]

Obviously making it a smaller number to lessen the confusion doesn't work. Yes, your right if there are the exact same amount of people putting in for tags as there are choices available up to 16 then yes you are right. I should of caught that 4x4 =16 so my example doesn't work. But take my numbers and extrapolate the number of people putting in for the permits but leave the permit numbers the same. Which is how our current system is. so let's say 64 people only have one choice of 4 hunts and they are evenly distributed. That would be 16 16 16 and 16 which gives you a 6.25 percent chance of drawing. Now lets say the same 64 people get 4 choices. 64 64 64 and 64 = a 1.25 percent chance of drawing. Now that there isn't a tag per 4 choices it should be a little more clear....

Yeah, but you have four choices, so you'd be 1 of the 64 in each of those draws with combined total draw odds of 1:16.

[grundy53]

Again, I'm only looking at the number of applicants and the number of permits.

So you say there are 64 applicants, and 4 permits. That's 1 in 16 odds.

Meaning out of every 16 people that applied, 1 will draw a permit.

Notice how you went from the previous example of a 1 in 4 chance to a 1 in 16 just by adding 28 new applicants. Now add 20,000 applicants. and change your 4 hunts to 30.