Some quality hunts, the real numbers of guys in the hat! Shocking!

[Watimberghost]

Somebody posted the mathematical formula on here a week ago. I ran every decent tag that I apply for, some were 1-2% at best, but most were well under 1%. But guess what, ill be applying again this year just most everyone else. Honestly, most people applying for the same units as me have about the same disgusting odds that I do. So its kind of a sad level playing field. The wdfw loves people like me. The dreams of big bucks and big bulls keep me spending money

[Opportunist]

That is not the way your points work in the draw.  I copied this off of the WDFW web page. Everyone goes into the draw with their ONE lowest number for each hunt series. Not your mutliplied total sets of numbers.

This is off the WDFW website.

"Under our current system, a hunter’s points are squared and he/she is assigned that number of random numbers. (For example, a hunter with 7 points is assigned 49 (7 X 7) random, computer-generated numbers.) This is done for all hunters. Then the computer throws out all but the best (lowest) number for each hunter. Next, the hunters are ranked by their number - lowest (best number) to highest (worst number). The computer then (starting at the top of the list) looks at a hunter’s first hunt choice selection. If a permit is available for that hunt, it is awarded (the person is drawn for that hunt). If that hunt has already been filled (all permits have been awarded), it looks at the hunter’s second choice. This same process is followed for all of the hunter’s hunt choice selections. Then the computer follows the same process for each hunter."

If you have good luck you can randomly be assigned a low number and draw every year with no points while someone with 20 points may never draw if they have bad luck.  None of the draw systems in the different states are perfect and this one is ours.

[idahohuntr]

That is not the way your points work in the draw.  I copied this off of the WDFW web page. Everyone goes into the draw with their ONE lowest number for each hunt series. Not your mutliplied total sets of numbers.

Reducing everyone down to their lowest number is a step in the draw process, however, it is correct to say that someone with 7 points has 49 "names in the hat" even though it is reduced to his lowest random number.  His lowest number was selected from 49 different random numbers.  The guy with 1 point was assigned 1 random number.   

[Mudman]

I never have played these app. games.  It seems sorta fair but I dont like the money end of it.  Just so many people apply compared to the early years.  If a guy adds up 20 years of money spent applying for a good east bull draw etc.!

[SkookumHntr]

-How does the computer pick who gets assigned there random numbers first then?? Because once the random numbers are assigned there gone so whoever is randomly assigned last will be screwed even if they have 17 points because all the low numbers will most likely be taken!? This system sounds more *censored*ed up then what I already thought it was if this is the case! Or is that the loophole where the wdfw can have there buddies and poacher point guys names assigned first before the low numbers are taken! Hence why I know of a guy that drew 4 Margaret tags in a row!!

[HoofsandWings]

Well, after reading some of the comments, I see you are not gamblers. Never been to a casino. Never bought a Lotto or Powerball ticket where the odds are a lot longer.
By you not buying a permit, my odds improve. Now if you can convince 99.99 percent of the usual permit applicants to not apply, my odds of drawing will increase to 100 percent.

[autodink13]

So would the odds be the same if the points werent squared and you just had the true amount of points you accrued each year?  nwhunter

The odds are better for people with more points. It really depends on the scenario though. For example, lets simplify and say there's 2 people in the draw with 2 points and one with 10 points. True numbers-10/12=83.3% 2/12=16.7% squared points-100/104=96.2% 4/104=3.8%
Lets do one more example. One person has 10points and one person has 11 points. True numbers-11/21=52.38% 10/21=47.62% squared points-121/221=54.75% 100/221=45.25%

[trophyhunt]

They have to start with all the names in hat in the beggining, so from the very start ALL the names are in the drawing. I would assume they have a random draw to assign those random numbers, so I wasn't completly wrong with how they draw.  I would expect to draw a special tag at some point in my life, but I would never expect to hit winning lottery numbers.....just a bit different.

[Mudman]

I gamble some in life but I dont do lottery tickets or casinos.  4 Margaret tags in a row says all there is too be said.  System is a joke and HUGE moneymaker!  15 years applying for 1%??  I will keep my money.  My dad gave up and drew toutle tag with 17pts I think he had.  Woo-Hoo, waste of money imop.

[bobcat]

I sure wouldn't say the system is a joke. We actually have one of the best point systems out of all the western states. (in my opinion)

If you don't like it or don't want to spend the money, then hunt the general seasons. No problem. It's true some of the hunts are nearly impossible to ever draw in a person's lifetime. But there are also good hunts that you could reasonably expect to draw in 5 to 10 years.

[Mudman]

You may be right.  They could make it cheaper/free?  Or a better system?  I will stick to general seasons.  -1% really?  Why would you waste money for that?  Im not rich.  Cheaper to go out of state possibly.

[runamuk]

Somebody posted the mathematical formula on here a week ago. I ran every decent tag that I apply for, some were 1-2% at best, but most were well under 1%. But guess what, ill be applying again this year just most everyone else. Honestly, most people applying for the same units as me have about the same disgusting odds that I do. So its kind of a sad level playing field. The wdfw loves people like me. The dreams of big bucks and big bulls keep me spending money

or people could look at this as there is a 98-99% probability you will not draw I dont play might put in for a doe tag if I feel like spending the money way before I even know if I will be able to hunt, hell I could get hit by a bus tomorrow so buying tags to put in for draws that are a 99% chance of failure seems sort of like asking to be struck by lightning, oddly I know 2 people personally who have been struck by lightning ....

[hunterrcc]

Run the numbers for the 1 tag in each of the Colockum rifle tag hunts.
It's worse odds than any OIL tag.   

What are you talking about those odds were great for my wife!!!!

I think I will put her in for it again!  What are those odds is the question!!!! lol

[HoofsandWings]

 

I sure wouldn't say the system is a joke. We actually have one of the best point systems out of all the western states. (in my opinion)

If you don't like it or don't want to spend the money, then hunt the general seasons. No problem. It's true some of the hunts are nearly impossible to ever draw in a person's lifetime. But there are also good hunts that you could reasonably expect to draw in 5 to 10 years.

 

[Opportunist]

Our system is based on luck and the longer you play the game you have an increased chance at having good luck. When I think of your name "being in the hat" say 100 times=10 points you would actually have a better chance at drawing in the long run since your not hoping on a low randomly selected computer generated number.

If my name was in the draw 100 times=10 points and my buddy puts in with no points so his name is in the draw one time for his application, my odds at drawing would be much better, versus how it works where we all go in the draw with one random number. Good luck you will draw, bad luck you won't.

I'm not bitching about our system, I play the game in alot of states and like I said in my other post all of the draw systems have their upside and downside, none are perfect. I've been fairly lucky drawing 2 Peaches and one Toutle tag under the current system, so like a good friend of mine always says "I'd rather be lucky than good"