Some quality hunts, the real numbers of guys in the hat! Shocking!

[trophyhunt]

Was bored today so I did some research. Everyone knows that your points in special permits are exponential (your number is X by itself- 8x8=64 and so on). Well I calculated some different elk hunts today and the numbers are incredible, I now feel a little bit better about NOT drawing because it's amazing how bad the odds really are. Now I'm not saying what the odds are, that is for the math guys, I'm showing you exactly how many names were in the hat for last years draws on these hunts.                               Hunt #2603 Disabled cow elk had 5,763 names in the hat for 5 permits.    Hunt# 2602 disabled bull had 10,881 names in the hat for 5 permits.       Hunt#2062 Archery bull peaches ridge had 18,098 names in the hat for 101 permits.     Hunt#2021 peaches ridge rifle Sept hunt had 44,697 names in hat for 1 tag.      Hunt#2079 muzzy tucannon had 9,176 names in the hat for 3 permits (2 this year).        Hunt#2081 muzzy east wenaha had 4,588 names in the hat for 3 tags (2 this year).       Hunt#2023 little naches oct 1st rifle bull hunt had......72,240 names in the hat for 10 permits, that's 1 permit every 7,224 names.  I thought I'd share this info, pretty depressing isn't it.

[Bob33]

"I now feel a little bit better about NOT drawing because it's amazing how bad the odds really are."

Very true, and many don't understand that.

[trophyhunt]

It took me a while to get it, it's really amazing how some guys draw consecutive years on tough to draw tags.

[buckfvr]

Its like giving them money for nothing......

[elksnout]

Thanks for cheering me up.   

[pope]

Take your last example:

Hunt#2023 little naches oct 1st rifle bull hunt had......72,240 names in the hat for 10 permits

I don't typically apply for tags, so correct me if I'm wrong but I think you're allowed to build up to 15 points? If so, you'd have 225 copies of your name in that hat which brings your probability of getting drawn to about 0.003 (or 1/3 of 1%) after 15 years of disappointment. I put in for the Green River quality deer tag a few times because it's close to home, but after looking at the numbers (and the fact you can't get in there to scout), I quit playing the game. I think good hunting is found w/o drawing a tag, by instead putting effort into getting away from hunting pressure and by scouting. This year, I had an opportunity on a really nice buck (yeah, I missed) in the most unlikely place.

[6x6in6]

Run the numbers for the 1 tag in each of the Colockum rifle tag hunts.
It's worse odds than any OIL tag.   

[6x6in6]

Take your last example:

Hunt#2023 little naches oct 1st rifle bull hunt had......72,240 names in the hat for 10 permits

I don't typically apply for tags, so correct me if I'm wrong but I think you're allowed to build up to 15 points? If so, you'd have 225 copies of your name in that hat which brings your probability of getting drawn to about 0.003 (or 1/3 of 1%) after 15 years of disappointment. I put in for the Green River quality deer tag a few times because it's close to home, but after looking at the numbers (and the fact you can't get in there to scout), I quit playing the game. I think good hunting is found w/o drawing a tag, by instead putting effort into getting away from hunting pressure and by scouting. This year, I had an opportunity on a really nice buck (yeah, I missed) in the most unlikely place.

There is no cap on the amount of points one can build.
Quite a few people have over 20.  One of the Wenaha West rifle quality tags went to someone with 37 points last year.

[nwhunter]

WHere do you find a list showing how many people put in for a unit and how many points they each had? And yes the odds for good hunts are staggering but someone has to get lucky so we keep playing the game. So would the odds be the same if the points werent squared and you just had the true amount of points you accrued each year?  nwhunter

[6x6in6]

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2012.php

Click on the blue text at the bottom of each animal type category to see the draw details.

[sakoshooter]

I've sat here with the calculator a couple of times doin the same thing. Damn scary to say the least.
That is why I feel that 2nd, 3rd & 4th choices shouldn't be included with 1st choices in raffles.

[KFhunter]

The odds must be too good, otherwise why plant wolves? 

[trophyhunt]

WHere do you find a list showing how many people put in for a unit and how many points they each had? And yes the odds for good hunts are staggering but someone has to get lucky so we keep playing the game. So would the odds be the same if the points werent squared and you just had the true amount of points you accrued each year?  nwhunter

I will probably keep playing the game, but I might just switch to the westside where I can hunt the weapon, season and big bulls every year insted of hunting spikes or not at all on the eastside. I wonder if the odds would be the same, I bet they would be, good question.  I also agree with some sort of waiting period, but I would prefer a ten point requirement for area's that we consider OIL hunts, like the blue's. Those number's I posted really expanded when I started adding the guys up between 4 to 8, that's what sent the numbers over the charts.

[rtspring]

Dont like the system. Move somewhere else.  Its really that easy

[iRem]

Dont like the system. Move somewhere else.  Its really that easy

I like that system! That's what's been happening for quit some time, maybe not moving out of state but diffenetly hunting out of state.