Draw Odds 2012 for Quality Deer in Washington

[idahohuntr]

Below I attached a PDF of draw odds by point total for each quality deer hunt offered in 2012.  Each hunt is listed by hunt number and name (same order as in the 2012 regs).

[jackelope]

How did you calculate them?

[cvandervort]

I did the same for all of the hunts that I am interested in...it's in excel format though
KENTREK published the formula in a different post.
The formula is: [your points^2/((average points^2)*number of applicants)]*number of tags*100 = % odds

I created a spreadsheet that reads just like the regs, but has another column with this formula...makes me SERIOUSLY reconsider some of the hunts I was putting in for. (granted I only have a couple of points...)

PM me if you need more info.

[adamR]

Average points squared doesn't sound very accurate.  Why not get the actual points per person that applied from the game dept and ill bet your numbers are even further rediculous.

[Sawbuck]

Thanks for taking the time to do that

[idahohuntr]

How did you calculate them?

I use the HYPGEOMDIST function in excel and solve for 1 - odds of not drawing.  It is very similar to how Bob33 described his methods in another thread.  It requires you to input the number of tags (chances of success), your point total and the total number of applications.

[Bob33]

Average points squared doesn't sound very accurate.  Why not get the actual points per person that applied from the game dept and ill bet your numbers are even further rediculous.

Average points can be accurately computed from the actual data. Using them will produce meaningful results. Quality Deer was 5.53 points in 2012.

[Ridgerunner]

Yeah the odds definately aren't in anyones favor for drawing, thats for sure.

[bobcat]

Looks like a 4% chance for my deer application. But, I didn't expect any better than that. I'm planning on hunting the general season.

[huntnnw]

i see these and think blah blah

[wilywin]

Below I attached a PDF of draw odds by point total for each quality deer hunt offered in 2012.  Each hunt is listed by hunt number and name (same order as in the 2012 regs).

Depressing...cept i noticed you had chewuch/perrygin as 1026-1027...its actually 1025-1026 (pg23) 

I got my " LOSER "  hat ready! 

[bobcat]

Below I attached a PDF of draw odds by point total for each quality deer hunt offered in 2012.  Each hunt is listed by hunt number and name (same order as in the 2012 regs).

Depressing...cept i noticed you had chewuch/perrygin as 1026-1027...its actually 1025-1026 (pg23) 

I got my " LOSER "  hat ready!

Th hunt numbers he has listed are the 2012 hunt numbers, since that is where all the data came from.

[D-Rock425]

i see these and think blah blah

me too.

[bobcat]

i see these and think blah blah

me too.

Why, you guys can't face reality?

[fishunt247]

Thanks for doing this. Pretty interesting stuff. How do you get the information about average points for quality (or any category for that matter)? Really wish I would have looked at this prior to submitting my apps.