Moose Draw Odds - 2012

[Curly]

Well, it's the system we have. Don't like it? Don't apply. I agree using a point system with moose permits doesn't make sense. It should have just been left to a totally random draw like it used to be. But, this happened because of hunters complaining that they had more rights to these limited tags just because they had been applying for many years.

So like I said in another thread- please don't ask the state to "fix" the draw system. The only thing that will happen is they'll find a way to make it worse.

I agree that we shouldn't request the state to "fix" anything. They should just do away with it. But I don't buy the fact that a few hunter complaints is what led to the point system. I think the WDFW saw a way to make more money and used a few complaints as their reasoning, just like they did when they split the permit categories a couple of years ago. I don't doubt that some people wanted it that way but the WDFW isn't going to just listen to a few hunters like that. there was no overwhelming demand from hunters that I'm aware of, the department had something to gain.

A good example is the lighted nocking issue. It had something like 90% support from hunters (as I remember), but WDFW shot it down. It took a large majority several years to get them to finally give in to the pressure. The WDFW when to the point system and expanded categories because they wanted to, IMO. If they thought they could have sold a lighted nock permit then all it would likely have taken would be a short rant from one disgruntled bow hunter who lost his arrow to "convince" them it was an overwhelming public demand. 

   Next year they will probably have a lighted nock fee.   

[WAcoueshunter]

I don't think limiting moose applications to one choice would change odds at all. How could it? You'd still have the same number of people applying for the same number of permits. That equals the same exact odds.   Correct? 

Yup, exactly.  It will move them around a bit to the extent people want 49DN and not Hangman (for example), but overall odds of drawing a bull permit basically stay the same.   Same number of total applicants vying for the same number of total tags.

Maybe the benefits of going to a single choice are (i) optically, it would LOOK like you have better odds even though you really don't (of course, this might just invite more people to apply), and (ii) we would decrease the number of silly statistics threads on HuntWA.

[6x6in6]

I don't think limiting moose applications to one choice would change odds at all. How could it? You'd still have the same number of people applying for the same number of permits. That equals the same exact odds.   Correct? 

Isn't applicants the total number of hunt choices selected by application?
If we were limited to 1 hunt choice then the applicants would certainly come down and so would the overall odds.  I know I have always applied for 2 hunt choices and therefore I would be considered an applicant twice.

[bobcat]

I don't think limiting moose applications to one choice would change odds at all. How could it? You'd still have the same number of people applying for the same number of permits. That equals the same exact odds.   Correct? 

Isn't applicants the total number of hunt choices selected by application?
If we were limited to 1 hunt choice then the applicants would certainly come down and so would the overall odds.  I know I have always applied for 2 hunt choices and therefore I would be considered an applicant twice.

Doesn't matter how you want to look at it. There are, or were, 19,224 people who applied for a bull moose permit last year. If that number stays the same, and the number of tags stays the same, odds will remain the same. Regardless of how many choices each person gets.

[Bob33]

If everyone submits the same number of hunt choices it does not matter how many there are. If one person submits four and someone else submits one, it alters their draw odds slightly.

[cmiller85]

I don't think limiting moose applications to one choice would change odds at all. How could it? You'd still have the same number of people applying for the same number of permits. That equals the same exact odds.   Correct? 

Isn't applicants the total number of hunt choices selected by application?
If we were limited to 1 hunt choice then the applicants would certainly come down and so would the overall odds.  I know I have always applied for 2 hunt choices and therefore I would be considered an applicant twice.

Doesn't matter how you want to look at it. There are, or were, 19,224 people who applied for a bull moose permit last year. If that number stays the same, and the number of tags stays the same, odds will remain the same. Regardless of how many choices each person gets.

Overall, yes. But odds of drawing aren't based of the overall applicants and the overall tags. It is based on applicants applying for a specific hunt. What it would do is force people to choose one hunt.

If there are 100 people with four hunt choices applying for 4 hunts then there will be 100 applications in each hunt. If the 100 people only get 1 choice then those 100 people get divided up into each hunt. For instance, hunt #1 might then get 35 applications, hunt #2 might get 25 applicants, hunts #3 and 4 might get 20 applications. This is of course very basic but you can get the idea.

[bobcat]

Right, overall odds is what I'm talking about. I assume most people are like me, and just want to draw a moose tag, regardless of the unit. I also assume that most people apply for four hunts, in order to maximize your odds of drawing a tag. If it went to only one choice, I believe odds would be virtually the same, with the exception of one or two of the least popular units. Hangman might be the one and only hunt that would actually see an increase in odds.

[WAcoueshunter]

Right, overall odds is what I'm talking about. I assume most people are like me, and just want to draw a moose tag, regardless of the unit. I also assume that most people apply for four hunts, in order to maximize your odds of drawing a tag. If it went to only one choice, I believe odds would be virtually the same, with the exception of one or two of the least popular units. Hangman might be the one and only hunt that would actually see an increase in odds.

I bet it would even stay pretty close to the same for Hangman.  Hangman has better odds right now.  It's not like deer where you feel like you can hold out for the Entiat or Desert and will eventually get there.  If you're holding out for 49DN or Selkirk, you LIKELY will never get there.   The first year might shift it around a bit, but if Hangman has significantly better odds you better believe people will apply there and things will balance out.

[cmiller85]

Right, overall odds is what I'm talking about. I assume most people are like me, and just want to draw a moose tag, regardless of the unit. I also assume that most people apply for four hunts, in order to maximize your odds of drawing a tag. If it went to only one choice, I believe odds would be virtually the same, with the exception of one or two of the least popular units. Hangman might be the one and only hunt that would actually see an increase in odds.

Gotchya.    I wasn't considering the cumulative probabilities of simply drawing a tag. That is a good point. You are probably right, it probably wouldn't be much different overall. I'll have to think on that some more. I was assuming that most people apply for their first choice as the one they really wanted and that each hunt must contain thousands of 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice entries that just make it more difficult for those who really want that hunt, and that by removing those non-first choice entries total applications for a hunt could only go down increasing odds for that particular hunt.

[Hoythunter]

LOL, I applied 1-1 as well.  What hunt did you guys apply for?

 

9-15 - 11/15

Sorry to say but that now makes 3 of us.

[shanevg]

LOL, I applied 1-1 as well.  What hunt did you guys apply for?

 

9-15 - 11/15

Sorry to say but that now makes 3 of us.

I applied for 11/1 - 11/15.  Better draw odds!

[Bob33]

I just finished a similar exercise in a different format using Excel. I've included Moose, Goat, and Sheep.

To answer a few questions asked in this thread: (1) the odds of drawing once in more than one year is not the sum of the individual years. Think about flipping a coin: the odds of flipping heads is 50% each time, but if you flip twice the odds are not 100%. It's more complicated than that. (2) Odds of drawing with 28 bonus points are about double the odds of drawing with 20, everything else being equal. The problem is that when you have 28 points, many others will as well. Everyone moves up. The odds curve shifts as time goes on.

[Gringo31]

Bob,
I think I'm even more depressed...

Thx

[boneaddict]

I have a zero chance in hell of drawing this year, only slightlty worse odds than you guys.

[bobcat]

1 in 100 odds for moose with my 17 points!   

With odds that good, how could I possibly NOT draw?