LUCK OF THE DRAW ! What is your chances for moose ??????

[NWWA Hunter]

Probably around 1/5. Lol

[bobcat]

Your odds certainly are better with max points versus someone putting in for the first time. 19 points will be max this year, and with that number a person would have a 361 times greater chance of drawing than a person with only 1 point.

[Solohunter84]

The link to story didnt work. Im wonderin their names? Or where they are from? Think i may know them haha

[Bob33]

Here are the actual odds for 49 Degrees North Any Moose, based on points in the 2012 draw.

There were 12,380 applications from 13,068 applicants.

The total number of “names in the hat” was 890,434.

There were 21 permits. Odds of drawing one of the 21 permits with the following number of points is shown below:

Points   Odds   "1 in…"
19   0.85%   118
18   0.76%   131
17   0.68%   147
16   0.60%   166
15   0.53%   189
14   0.46%   217
13   0.40%   251
12   0.34%   295
11   0.28%   351
10   0.24%   424
9   0.19%   524
8   0.15%   663
7   0.12%   866
6   0.08%   1178
5   0.06%   1697
4   0.04%   2651
3   0.02%   4712
2   0.01%   10601
1   0.00%   42402

[The scout]

so your telling me there's a chance

[Curly]

Your odds of winning $1,000 in the WA state lottery is better than drawing a moose permit with only 1 point.

[RB]

so your telling me there's a chance

 

[Halo]

I have max points for moose in Washington and Montana and 13 years worth of points in Wyoming & Colorado and 5 moose points in Utah and I'm not betting I'll be eating moose meat this fall.

[boneaddict]

Getting close to a few units in Wyoming worth drawing with 13.....

[Bob33]

Here are the actual odds for 49 Degrees North Any Moose, based on points in the 2012 draw.

There were 12,380 applications from 13,068 applicants.

The total number of “names in the hat” was 890,434.

There were 21 permits. Odds of drawing one of the 21 permits with the following number of points is shown below:

Points   Odds   "1 in…"
19   0.85%   118
18   0.76%   131
17   0.68%   147
16   0.60%   166
15   0.53%   189
14   0.46%   217
13   0.40%   251
12   0.34%   295
11   0.28%   351
10   0.24%   424
9   0.19%   524
8   0.15%   663
7   0.12%   866
6   0.08%   1178
5   0.06%   1697
4   0.04%   2651
3   0.02%   4712
2   0.01%   10601
1   0.00%   42402

Here's a little more cheerful news. If everyone that applied in this example applied the next year, and no new applicants entering the draw, the odds would get worse for everyone with more than ten points. Applicants with 19 points would have 20 points the next year, and so forth. Because there are so many applicants with not many points, they tip the odds towards the lower end: the 1100 applicants with 1 point would have a total of 1100 names in the hat in the first year, but the second year they would have 4400. The applicant with a maximum 19 points would have a 1 in 118 chance the first year, but only a 1 in 130 chance the next.

Points   "1 In" odds      Points   "1 In" odds
19   118      20   130
18   131      19   144
17   147      18   160
16   166      17   179
15   189      16   203
14   217      15   230
13   251      14   264
12   295      13   307
11   351      12   360
10   424      11   428
9   524      10   518
8   663      9   639
7   866      8   809
6   1,178      7   1,056
5   1,697      6   1,437
4   2,651      5   2,069
3   4,712      4   3,233
2   10,601      3   5,747
1   42,402      2   12,931

[boneaddict]

Like I said, some interesting math involved, and folks would be surprised with it out on paper.   There are some things the WDFW could do to help, but they wont with the current system.

[bobcat]

Anything the WDFW did to "help," would help some but hurt others. The only thing to actually help, as in increasing odds of drawing, would be to increase the number of permits. And of course they can't do that unless moose numbers go up.

[Curly]

And the likelihood of moose #'s increasing is slim with all the wolves, bears, and cougars around. 

[Bob33]

Anyone that really wants to hunt moose, mountain goat, or bighorn sheep in his lifetime needs to look to other states.

Hope springs eternal, and everyone knows someone who "drew with just one point", or they look at "average points" and conclude they'll draw in the near future. Unfortunately, it just isn't so.

WDFW loves stories like the family that drew three moose permits.

[boneaddict]

Go to Idahos system.  Best chance of drawing OIL. 
Front the cash
One choice
One species
Choose OIL or elk and deer special permits
No points.

The latter not being possible really at this point without a civil war.   

You have a better chance of drawing a moose tag right now in Washington, than a chance of them fixing their system.  They have their hands in your pockets and those hands aren't coming out.  Even all the incentive tags and multiple raffle tags and auction tags are ways to get more money out of your pockets.