2013 Moose and Sheep Draw Odds

[Ridgerunner]

Some on the peninsula. You probably missed my baker being added to the high buck hunt to.

[soccerguy]

Yikes...drew a Selah Butte ram tag in 2012 with 14 points and guessed my odds were 450/1...looks like I was pretty close.  The ridiculous thing that year was that I had better odds of drawing the same tag in Oregon with zero points as a nonresident!!!!  I'd love to have someone at WDFW justify that to me!

[bobcat]

How would WDFW "justify" the low odds of drawing a sheep tag? They can't control the number of people that apply for those tags, and they certainly can't increase the number of tags available to be drawn.   

[idahohuntr]

How would WDFW "justify" the low odds of drawing a sheep tag? They can't control the number of people that apply for those tags, and they certainly can't increase the number of tags available to be drawn.   

Yep...there are two ways you change overall draw odds:

1. Increase the number of tags - this is more of a biological issue, so generally in draw odd issues its best to just not discuss this option...assume the population is being managed correctly to acheive desired objectves.

2. Decrease Applicants - This can be done a lot of ways (limit choices, increase application fees, etc.).  Almost everybody will agree that we should "increase draw odds"...but when you start talking about the options to get you there the wheels fall off 

[lhrbull]

one way to reduse applicants is to charge the tag fee up front or just buy points and not be active in the draw

[Ridgerunner]

Unfortunately this issue will never go away, it's supply and demand.  Any changes made will not significantly impact odds, apply and hope to get lucky is the best strategy I know of.

[lhrbull]

that would be a combination Wyoming and idaho

[benhuntin]

Only allow one unit on the application. Problem solved


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[bobcat]

Only allow one unit on the application. Problem solved


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That wouldn't make any difference in odds. Odds for a particular unit might change slightly, for better or worse, but overall I think odds would remain exactly the same.

[benhuntin]

Only allow one unit on the application. Problem solved


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That wouldn't make any difference in odds. Odds for a particular unit might change slightly, for better or worse, but overall I think odds would remain exactly the same.

i think the same 10000 people put in for several units. How would breaking that up not help? 



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[bobcat]

Only allow one unit on the application. Problem solved


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That wouldn't make any difference in odds. Odds for a particular unit might change slightly, for better or worse, but overall I think odds would remain exactly the same.

i think the same 10000 people put in for several units. How would breaking that up not help? 



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Because there would still be the same number of people applying for the same number of permits.

[shanevg]

Only allow one unit on the application. Problem solved


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That wouldn't make any difference in odds. Odds for a particular unit might change slightly, for better or worse, but overall I think odds would remain exactly the same.

i think the same 10000 people put in for several units. How would breaking that up not help? 



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Because there would still be the same number of people applying for the same number of permits.

Unfortunately, bobcat is right. It would increase odds for individual hunts by about 4x but assuming every hunter uses all 4 choices, it would not increase your odds of getting drawn as your name would no longer be in 4 separate pots. I'm still in favor of only one choice though.

The best things to do to increase draw odds is only allow hunters to apply for elk/deer or sheep or goat or moose in a given year. Fronting tag fees wouldn't hurt either.

[huntnnw]

Something needs to be done! the odds here are horrendous. There needs to be pick 1 unit only in OIL tags or do like ID and you either apply for bucks and bulls or OIL tags not both. If your drawn for a quality bull or buck tag you have to sit out the following year.

[fair-chase]

Pre pay, allowing only a single choice, and not allowing a quality deer or elk in the same year are all good suggestions. They would all work to temporarily increase odds, especially if done simultaneously. But they still fail to address the issue of points creep. I fail to see any way around the issue of points creep without scrapping the bonus point system all together. Go ahead and hate on me as much as you like, I understand that many of you have a vested interest in points. But having a bonus points system does a severe disservice to future generations of hunters. And even though I'm not personally invested in the OIL tags catagories, I would gladly give up my deer and elk preference points in order to go to a true random draw. I just don't see any other way to ensure opportunity for future hunters.

I say rip the bandaid off now. I will only hurt worse the longer you drag it out. Flame away. 

[bobcat]

I agree points shouldn't be used in the goat, sheep, and moose draw. But for deer and elk I think it's fine. There are enough permits that are relatively easy to draw, if someone doesn't want to wait 20 years for a special permit, then apply for the easier ones. I've drawn four quality deer permits since the point system started. So the point system does work.