Point Creep

[Bean Counter]

I'm an educated man but don't seem to have figured this concept out. Can someone please explain it to me like I'm 6 because I still don't get it. Maybe a short example?

Thanks.

[Halo]

It's like a marathon that when you see the finish line they keep moving it another half mile further until you're just walking down the road cussing and kicking rocks. 

[vandeman17]

very simple idea is that each year the "value" of a point decreases and thus each year, even though you gain a point, your odds don't increase at the same rate.

[Bean Counter]

It's like a marathon that when you see the finish line they keep moving it another half mile further until you're just walking down the road cussing and kicking rocks. 

Please sir, can I have another? 

[cbond3318]

It's like a marathon that when you see the finish line they keep moving it another half mile further until you're just walking down the road cussing and kicking rocks. 

This actually made very good sense to me! 

[Woodchuck]

 

[Ridgerunner]

very simple idea is that each year the "value" of a point decreases and thus each year, even though you gain a point, your odds don't increase at the same rate.

Well said, perhaps you are applying for a tag that took 5 points to draw the first year, the next year it takes 6, or 8 whatever the demand drives it up to.  That is point creep where the "finish" line keeps getting moved and it feels like you wont reach it.   

We dont really have point creep here due to our draw process but other states like Colorado definately do. 

[Bean Counter]

very simple idea is that each year the "value" of a point decreases and thus each year, even though you gain a point, your odds don't increase at the same rate.

So its about diminishing returns to scale? Add a point this year and next year I have X% better odds, but then add a point next year and the following year I only have +0.75X% marginally better odds?

If I saw a spreadsheet I'm sure my disturbed mind could make sense of it. Then it would be simple enough for a Bean Counter to understand 

[3nails]

It's like a marathon that when you see the finish line they keep moving it another half mile further until you're just walking down the road cussing and kicking rocks. 

That sums it up pretty darn good!     

[Ridgerunner]

BC, you're a CPA its not that hard to figure out. 

[Bean Counter]

Well said, perhaps you are applying for a tag that took 5 points to draw the first year, the next year it takes 6, or 8 whatever the demand drives it up to.  That is point creep where the "finish" line keeps getting moved and it feels like you wont reach it.   

This is my understanding... but I don't understand how it works. I guess I just look at it as standing in line at Costco for a hot dog. More people might get behind me in the points game, but theoretically people shouldn't be cutting in front of me in point totals. . 

[Bean Counter]

BC, you're a CPA its not that hard to figure out.

A guy in a bar leans over to the guy next to him and says, "Want to hear an accountant joke?"

The guy next to him replies, "Well, before you tell that joke, you should know that I'm 6 feet tall, 200 pounds, and I'm an accountant. And the guy sitting next to me is 6'2" tall, 225 pounds, and he's an accountant. Now, do you still want to tell that joke?"

The first guy says, "No, I don't want to have to explain it two times." 

[Jonathan_S]

Year 1:  Everybody has 1 point.
Year 2:  Everybody has 2 points except the guy who drew in Year 1
Year 3:  Everybody has 3 points except the guys who drew previously
And so on and so forth

The number of applicants will never be met by the number of tags given.  The average points used only increases on a yearly basis.

It's really about getting lucky.  Points are deceiving.

[vandeman17]

very simple idea is that each year the "value" of a point decreases and thus each year, even though you gain a point, your odds don't increase at the same rate.

So its about diminishing returns to scale? Add a point this year and next year I have X% better odds, but then add a point next year and the following year I only have +0.75X% marginally better odds?

If I saw a spreadsheet I'm sure my disturbed mind could make sense of it. Then it would be simple enough for a Bean Counter to understand 

Precisely! I am an econ major and work in finance so I know what you mean 

[Ridgerunner]

People jump in front of you if they have been buying points only and then decide to put in for a unit.  If I have 10 points becuase I've been saving them and then decide to use them on a unit that last year only took 7, I'm driving the # of points up to draw that unit, if enough people do that then you get point creep.