Point Creep

[Bean Counter]

People jump in front of you if they have been buying points only and then decide to put in for a unit.  If I have 10 points becuase I've been saving them and then decide to use them on a unit that last year only took 7, I'm driving the # of points up to draw that unit, if enough people do that then you get point creep.

 

[cbond3318]

Well said, perhaps you are applying for a tag that took 5 points to draw the first year, the next year it takes 6, or 8 whatever the demand drives it up to.  That is point creep where the "finish" line keeps getting moved and it feels like you wont reach it.   

This is my understanding... but I don't understand how it works. I guess I just look at it as standing in line at Costco for a hot dog. More people might get behind me in the points game, but theoretically people shouldn't be cutting in front of me in point totals. . 

Except the line is side to side not front to back and the guy serving hot dogs randomly picks someone and gives them a hotdog. More people in the line the more options for him. Oh and don't bother trying to wear a brightly colored shirt  cause he is blind....

[soccerguy]

BC, you're a CPA its not that hard to figure out.

That's me!!! But still very frustrating.  Oregon and Colorado are the worst.

[Ridgerunner]

Lots of us bean counters on here. 

[WAcoueshunter]

Point Creep?  I thought that's what my Brittany does when she can't hold the point?   


Pretty simple, demand exceeds supply, so the number of points it takes to draw from one year to the next "creeps" up.  They need another term for places like the Strip where the increase from one year to the next in points required is much more than a little creep. 

[JimmyHoffa]

Think of it as the inflation of the permit world.  Your 6 points this year get you what 5 points got you a couple years ago.  But if too many people get in the game, you'd need 8 points or more next year but could only get 7 by then.

[Bigshooter]

Take for example NW CO.  There are a couple of highly sought after units up there for elk that give out very few tags.  The first year they start a pt system everyone has 1pt.  They give out 10 tags for the unit and 1000 people apply.  So the first year 10 people draw with 1 pt.  The 2nd year 10 people draw with 2 pts.  The 3rd year 10 people draw with 3pts.  Fast forward to year 20 and now 10 people draw with 20pts.  That is pt creep.  To me pt creep only happens in a preference pt system.

Pt creep also happens when guys who have been buying pts only jump into the draw all at once.  This usually happens when dates change for the better.

[idahohuntr]

Point creep is at play in WA as well.  For example, in 2012, if you applied for a quality deer Entiat MF tag with 10pts your odds were approximately 2%.  In 2014, with 10 points for the same hunt your odds were 1%.  Now here is the kicker...the guy with 10 pts in 2012 had 2% draw odds, in 2014 with 12pts, his odds of drawing the tag are 1.5% As more "points" are added to the system your odds go down and the value of each point diminishes at a rate greater than your individual increase in points/odds.

The bottom line here is that point systems are 110% a ponzi scheme.  You get in on the base level or you are SOL.  And really, even those on the base level are fighting a losing game.  One last bit of advice...never invest or do business with anyone who has something positive to say about point systems 

[Bob33]

It happens in Washington to applicants at the upper ends of the points spectrum because of the large number of applicants at the lower end.

Here's an exaggerated example: For a high quality hunt, there may be 100 applicants with 20 points. Each one has 400 names in the hat. They have a total of 8000 names in the hat. There may be 1000 applicants with 1 point. They have a total of 1000 points in the hat. Combined there are 9000 names in the hat.

Next year, the 100 applicants with 20 points have 21 so they each have 442 names in the hat. That's a total of 8840 names, an increase of about 10%. The 1000 applicants that had 1 point now have 2 points, so each has 4 names in the hat. Together they have 4000 names, an increase of 300%. Their disproportionate increase "swamps" the slight increase that those at the upper end had.

Those at the lower end of points distribution usually do have an increase in draw odds from year to year, while those at the upper end usually experience a slight decrease from year to year.

[kentrek]

Idk if some of you have noticed but application numbers fluctuate up and down from year to year Givin a certain tag So doing your draw odds for one unit doesn't really prove anything

So some units your odds get better and others get worse...the only way total odds (all draw units) get worse is to increase total hunters while keeping the same amount of draws available

at that point the moon and Saturn get affected by the gravitational pull of Pluto to result great than average rains in California reducing the overall total harvest in the methow valleys deer heard increasing total hunters and thus decreasing our overall odds

Pretty simple really


 

[Bigshooter]

Bonus systems don't have pt creep.  Call it what you want, maybe pt devalue but it is not pt creep.  You can draw with 1pt or a hundred pts in a bonus system.  You have to have the most pts to draw in a preference pt system.

[WAcoueshunter]

Bonus systems don't have pt creep.  Call it what you want, maybe pt devalue but it is not pt creep.  You can draw with 1pt or a hundred pts in a bonus system.  You have to have the most pts to draw in a preference pt system.

Depends on the way you look at it.  If the average points required to draw goes from 5 to 6 to 7, I still call that point creep.  It's the same issue - demand exceeds supply and each year it's harder and harder to draw - just applied in a different draw mechanism. 

[grundy53]

Bonus systems don't have pt creep.  Call it what you want, maybe pt devalue but it is not pt creep.  You can draw with 1pt or a hundred pts in a bonus system.  You have to have the most pts to draw in a preference pt system.

Depends on the way you look at it.  If the average points required to draw goes from 5 to 6 to 7, I still call that point creep.  It's the same issue - demand exceeds supply and each year it's harder and harder to draw - just applied in a different draw mechanism.

Remember every year that the average points go up they are squared, not added.

[X-Force]

Point creep = Idaho looks better and better every year. No points, only put in for 1oil or elk and deer, money up front so no one backs out.

[grundy53]

Point creep = Idaho looks better and better every year. No points, only put in for 1oil or elk and deer, money up front so no one backs out.

I agree.