Point Creep

[Bigshooter]

Bonus systems don't have pt creep.  Call it what you want, maybe pt devalue but it is not pt creep.  You can draw with 1pt or a hundred pts in a bonus system.  You have to have the most pts to draw in a preference pt system.

Depends on the way you look at it.  If the average points required to draw goes from 5 to 6 to 7, I still call that point creep.  It's the same issue - demand exceeds supply and each year it's harder and harder to draw - just applied in a different draw mechanism.

When an average pt gets you a tag I will consider it pt creep.  But when a person can draw with any amount of pts (Less than the average or more than the average) I don't see how it can be considered pt creep.

[idahohuntr]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

[Romulous]

I did not read the entire thread. But do you realize this issue of point creep does not exist in Colorado so far as sheep goat and moose are concerned. Somebody challenge me on it and I might post the article explaining how the draw is different in Colorado for sheep goat and moose. Step 1. In a barn somewhere 10 digits 0-9 are hung on a wall. Step 2. Another set of digits 0-9 are selected one at a time. Pause for example. Step 1. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 are hung on a wall in order. Step 2. Some randomly picks a digit from a second set. Perhaps they pick the digit 3. Then the digit three gets hung under the 0 digit from step 1. Perhaps the next digit randomly drawn from step 2 is a 7. Then 7 gets hung under the digit 1 from step 1. So on and so forth.  End example. Step 3. Your application number is coded  by converting your app number to a new app number using the sequencing process in steps 1 and 2. For example if your app number was 37xxxxxxxx then your decoded app number would be 01xxxxxxxx. Step 4. Your decoded app number is reversed. For example. xxxxxxxx10. Step 5. The number generated in step 4 is divided by the number of preference points you have. Step 6. The lowest number after step 6 gets the tag. Let me know if you want me to reference the article.


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[Bigshooter]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

You odds never change in a preference pt system they are 0% until you have enough pts to draw.  So in a preference pt system your odds get better.  Pt creep just adds a couple years on to how many pts you need until you draw.  It's nothing like a bonus pt system where you can draw with fewer pts than what the average pts draw are.  Those average pts draw numbers are fools gold.  They are some of the reason why people get mad that they didn't draw in a bonus pt system.

When those average pts in WA guarantee me a tag then I will consider it pt creep.  But when someone can draw with less than the averge pts it isn't pt creep. 

[Bigshooter]

I did not read the entire thread. But do you realize this issue of point creep does not exist in Colorado so far as sheep goat and moose are concerned. Somebody challenge me on it and I might post the article explaining how the draw is different in Colorado for sheep goat and moose. Step 1. In a barn somewhere 10 digits 0-9 are hung on a wall. Step 2. Another set of digits 0-9 are selected one at a time. Pause for example. Step 1. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 are hung on a wall in order. Step 2. Some randomly picks a digit from a second set. Perhaps they pick the digit 3. Then the digit three gets hung under the 0 digit from step 1. Perhaps the next digit randomly drawn from step 2 is a 7. Then 7 gets hung under the digit 1 from step 1. So on and so forth.  End example. Step 3. Your application number is coded  by converting your app number to a new app number using the sequencing process in steps 1 and 2. For example if your app number was 37xxxxxxxx then your decoded app number would be 01xxxxxxxx. Step 4. Your decoded app number is reversed. For example. xxxxxxxx10. Step 5. The number generated in step 4 is divided by the number of preference points you have. Step 6. The lowest number after step 6 gets the tag. Let me know if you want me to reference the article.


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CO OIL tags are a whole different ballgame.
What you just painfully described is how numbers get generate in all bonus pt systems to the best of my knowledge.  Whoever gets the lowest generated number gets the tag.
 In CO for OIL tags you apply with 0% chance of drawing the first 3 years.  Then starting year 4 it is a bonus pt system like you explained.

[Sitka_Blacktail]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

And they continue to diminish while the perception is that they actually increase.  I liked the old days when you could put in for one draw per species. You had to do some choosing then, but your odds of getting drawn were way better. Some of the draws today get way more action than they would because you can put in for each category of each species. If you had to choose between quality buck, doe, any season, second deer, or buck deer tags, plus you only got to make one choice as far as hunt in whatever category you put in for, a lot of the draws become less popular and were fairly easy draws.

Preference point systems weren't put in place to make it easier for hunters to draw. They were put in to make you perceive it was easier to get drawn with the real reason of making more money for the State. It's as simple as that.  They appeal to your greed (ie making you think points give you an advantage) while slipping your wallet out of your back pocket. This works the same way all good cons do.

[Bigshooter]

I just thought of something. 

 If a unit in WA gave out 1 tag.  And you had guys applying for it with pt totals from 1 - 25 the first year, with the biggest number increasing by one the next year.  And every year a guy drew the tag with 3 pts.  Is that pt creep? 

[Bigshooter]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

And they continue to diminish while the perception is that they actually increase.  I liked the old days when you could put in for one draw per species. You had to do some choosing then, but your odds of getting drawn were way better. Some of the draws today get way more action than they would because you can put in for each category of each species. If you had to choose between quality buck, doe, any season, second deer, or buck deer tags, plus you only got to make one choice as far as hunt in whatever category you put in for, a lot of the draws become less popular and were fairly easy draws.

Preference point systems weren't put in place to make it easier for hunters to draw. They were put in to make you perceive it was easier to get drawn with the real reason of making more money for the State. It's as simple as that.  They appeal to your greed (ie making you think points give you an advantage) while slipping your wallet out of your back pocket. This works the same way all good cons do.

This diminished odds thing is a WA thing.  If you looke at NV where they have a bonus pt system.  Each year that you gain a pt the next year (unless there was a big tag cut) your odds increase from the previous year.  The reason being is that they give out a lot more tags that removes guys with pts out of the system then replaces them with guys with a lot less pts the next year.  In 2014 23 pts was the most pts you could have in NV.  The most pts that anyone applied with for deer was 12.  NV has enough tags to get guys in and out of the system farily quickly unlike WA.  You just can't compare WA to any other state. 

[bobcat]

Yeah, that's because Nevada does not have general seasons. If you don't draw, you don't hunt. That's why they can afford to have more tags in the draw. So in Nevada it does seem like it makes sense to use a point system. But here, I think we'd be better off without it.

[grundy53]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

And they continue to diminish while the perception is that they actually increase.  I liked the old days when you could put in for one draw per species. You had to do some choosing then, but your odds of getting drawn were way better. Some of the draws today get way more action than they would because you can put in for each category of each species. If you had to choose between quality buck, doe, any season, second deer, or buck deer tags, plus you only got to make one choice as far as hunt in whatever category you put in for, a lot of the draws become less popular and were fairly easy draws.

Preference point systems weren't put in place to make it easier for hunters to draw. They were put in to make you perceive it was easier to get drawn with the real reason of making more money for the State. It's as simple as that.  They appeal to your greed (ie making you think points give you an advantage) while slipping your wallet out of your back pocket. This works the same way all good cons do.

[Bob33]

In our bonus point system draw odds do increase from year to year for those in the lower point tiers such as 1 to 10 points. Going from year 1 to year 2, names in the hat increases from one to four. Those at the upper ends experience a slight decrease. The problem is that if you don't get in or stay in the game your odds are between zero and worse.

[actionshooter]

Semantics.  The principle issue is that your odds or frequency of getting a tag continue to diminish.

You odds never change in a preference pt system they are 0% until you have enough pts to draw.  So in a preference pt system your odds get better.  Pt creep just adds a couple years on to how many pts you need until you draw.  It's nothing like a bonus pt system where you can draw with fewer pts than what the average pts draw are.  Those average pts draw numbers are fools gold.  They are some of the reason why people get mad that they didn't draw in a bonus pt system.

When those average pts in WA guarantee me a tag then I will consider it pt creep.  But when someone can draw with less than the averge pts it isn't pt creep. 

This is right on the money, true "point creep" only happens in states where you are guaranteed a tag if you have enough points to "buy" (for lack of a better word) the tag.

 In Wyoming if it takes 4 points to obtain a tag for a specific draw everyone who put in with 4 points or more will draw that tag until there are more people with 4 (or more) points putting in than tags available.

 Its frustrating when you have your eyes on a tag and the required points go up.

[pd]

Point creep is at play in WA as well.  For example, in 2012, if you applied for a quality deer Entiat MF tag with 10pts your odds were approximately 2%.  In 2014, with 10 points for the same hunt your odds were 1%.  Now here is the kicker...the guy with 10 pts in 2012 had 2% draw odds, in 2014 with 12pts, his odds of drawing the tag are 1.5% As more "points" are added to the system your odds go down and the value of each point diminishes at a rate greater than your individual increase in points/odds.

The bottom line here is that point systems are 110% a ponzi scheme.  You get in on the base level or you are SOL.  And really, even those on the base level are fighting a losing game.  One last bit of advice...never invest or do business with anyone who has something positive to say about point systems 

Best explanation that I've read.