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Author Topic: Idaho true draw odds for NR  (Read 8299 times)

Offline Gringo31

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Idaho true draw odds for NR
« on: May 01, 2015, 11:48:22 AM »
http://blog.eastmans.com/what-are-your-odds-really/


IDAHO BIGHORN DRAW ODDS – NOT WHAT THEY SEEM

The application deadline for Idaho Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep and California bighorn is coming up Thursday, April 30.

Thousands of hunters salivate at the prospects of drawing a bighorn sheep tag in the Lower 48, realizing that a sheep hunt anywhere else – Mexico, Alberta, Alaska, the Yukon or NW Territories runs $14,000 – $25,000, plus thousands more for air fare, charter plane (usually), taxidermy and tips to guides, wranglers, cooks, etc.

So, Idaho has a straight-up random draw and the online odds look great, some as high as 1 in 7! I’m not kidding. That sounds exciting. No preference points, no bonus points. Wow! Sign me up – quick!

But, when something sounds too good to be true…

Here’s the scoop – and it’s the same ol’ story. Great for residents, not so great for nonresidents.

Yes, if you want to try for a Unit 26 early season sheep hunt deep in the Frank Church Wilderness where harvest success consistently runs just 25% for tight-curled rams you will find that last year only 29 hunters applied for 4 tags. That’s about 1 in 7 odds. Terrific!

Well, not if you’re a nonresident. You see, there’s this little thing called the nonresident tag cap.

In Idaho last year, there were 66 total sheep tags. By law, a maximum of 10% can go to nonresidents. That’s 6 total tags for 1,064 nonresident applicants, which comes out to odds of 0.0056 (6/1,064). That’s about 1 in 177, well under 1%.

It gets worse. After getting past the nonresident cap you still have to beat the 1 in 7 odds on that hunt, which is for good reason the easiest to draw in the state by far.

So multiply the 0.0056 nonresident cap odds X the 0.138 odds for Unit 26, Hunt 5006 and you get 0.0008, or 1 in 1,284. Those are close to your TRUE nonresident odds (ideally, you should adjust for other nonresidents who applied for that hunt). It’s close enough.

Idaho residents get a 1 in 7 chance and nonresidents 1 in 1,284 and much worse. Other sheep hunts can be almost 20 times harder to draw. Well, buy me a lottery ticket.

What’s worse is that guys that haven’t figured this out spend over $2,000 upfront to apply and then maybe don’t have enough money to put toward a hunt on another species with much better odds. Then, expecting a 1 in 7 chance to draw a bighorn tag, they wait anxiously for the draw results when their true odds are slightly worse than a high school senior football player eventually being drafted in the NFL.

It’s not that Idaho is trying to be deceptive. The info is all there, you just have to think about it and do the math. Sure, four guys will draw that tag (4 residents, probably). Just realize what you’re up against when you lay your money down.

Dave Hoshour
We must reject the idea that every time a law's broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions.
-Ronald Reagan

Online Ridgerunner

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Re: Idaho true draw odds for NR
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2015, 12:27:36 PM »
Great post, I bet it is pretty eye opening for some people.

Offline Call em in

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Re: Idaho true draw odds for NR
« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2015, 01:03:16 PM »
Great post and useful information.  I'm going with "you can win if you don't play". I'm going to try my luck because hunting a wild sheep is at the top of my list. I'm new to applying out of state. I know I may be late on some of the draw dates. Any advice from seasoned sheep hunters would be greatly appreciated. Feel free to pm me if you don't want to post. Thank you in advance and good luck everybody!

Online WAcoueshunter

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Re: Idaho true draw odds for NR
« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2015, 01:24:19 PM »
Yes, we did an Idaho NR overall cap analysis in another thread.  1:170 for sheep, and 1:55 for goats.  The overall cap doesn't appear to be a factor for moose though.

http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,172914.25.html




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Re: Idaho true draw odds for NR
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2015, 01:25:55 PM »
Bottom line is if a guy wants to hunt moose Idaho is the state with the best odds.  Sheep are a tough, tough draw no matter what state you are applying in. 

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: Idaho true draw odds for NR
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2015, 09:16:38 PM »
Great post and useful information.  I'm going with "you can win if you don't play". I'm going to try my luck because hunting a wild sheep is at the top of my list. I'm new to applying out of state. I know I may be late on some of the draw dates. Any advice from seasoned sheep hunters would be greatly appreciated. Feel free to pm me if you don't want to post. Thank you in advance and good luck everybody!
If you were wanting to apply this year you missed the boat. App period for trophy species closed yesterday. If you want to apply next year the app period is April 1st-30th. Do remember you have to front the tag fee in idaho but it still gives you the best chance to draw a sheep tag unless you are sitting on a bunch of points in other states

Offline idahohuntr

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Re: Idaho true draw odds for NR
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2015, 09:31:56 PM »
Good description for NR's...I know in the earlier thread I was unaware the cap applied to the OIL species as a whole.  For deer/elk/antelope, the cap is hunt by hunt. 
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood..." - TR

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: Idaho true draw odds for NR
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2015, 09:36:41 PM »
Yes, we did an Idaho NR overall cap analysis in another thread.  1:170 for sheep, and 1:55 for goats.  The overall cap doesn't appear to be a factor for moose though.

http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,172914.25.html
I figured out the rocky mt bighorn odds for a NR and came to about 1:180. Your figures were based on the Cali bighorn odds. Just adding to it is all. The other thing to factor in is since there are 6 rocky mt bighorn tags allowed to NR you can figure by hunt based on NR applicants for a specific tag and using the overall cap as well but I think we need bean counter for that kind of math.

As a resident on the other hand my odds are fairly easy to figure out. Take unit 21 which I applied for last year as an example. If I assume that a NR most likely will not draw one of the 3 tags for that particular unit and also assume resident applicant numbers stay the same I am looking at 1:10.667 draw odds. Assuming a NR does draw 1 of the 3 and resident applicants stay roughly the same I would have odds around 1:16. However this year I went with the new unknown odds hunt 19A. No idea what my odds will be but I'm hoping that being a new hunt it won't have a whole lot of applicants

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: Idaho true draw odds for NR
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2015, 09:45:09 PM »
Good description for NR's...I know in the earlier thread I was unaware the cap applied to the OIL species as a whole.  For deer/elk/antelope, the cap is hunt by hunt.

Reason for the species wide cap is most units would essentially become like unit 11 where a resident actually has less chance than a NR every year.

I also have a tendency to think the blog writer didn't do a whole lot of research when I look at the draw odds for sheep and find 3 tags with overall draw odds right at 1-5. Maybe a blogger trying to improve his own draw odds on a tag he would really like
« Last Edit: May 01, 2015, 09:52:57 PM by andrew_in_idaho »

Offline idahohuntr

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Re: Idaho true draw odds for NR
« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2015, 09:51:23 PM »
An individual resident doesn't actually have less chance than an individual nr...even in 11....just a total numbers thing.
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood..." - TR

Offline andrew_in_idaho

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Re: Idaho true draw odds for NR
« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2015, 09:54:45 PM »
True just due to volume of NR apps vs resident apps odds say NR will be hunting 11 most years. Why I won't waste my time applying there

 


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