Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded

[emac]

I love third person posts. Very clever bushcraft. Good luck to you. 👍

I started thinking the same thing once I saw that he posted this same thing over on the rockslide form.

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[grundy53]

Why the third person post? Why not just come out and say that you dumped a bunch of money into the goat raffle?

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[Bushcraft]

Why the third person post? Why not just come out and say that you dumped a bunch of money into the goat raffle?

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That's a fair question Grundy.

To be perfectly honest I deliberately used the third person since it seemed more like a light-hearted courtesy than a horn tooting.  Quite frankly, I was surprised that in this day and age the WDFW website doesn't update automatically.  For crying out loud...it's 2016!  I'd be a little ticked at WDFW if I went into it not knowing what the updated odds are, only to find out three or four other guys bought a chunk at pretty much the exact same time.

Regards,

Allen

[rosscrazyelk]

Once again just another ave for the rich to play and the poor guy get suckered into buying..

[grundy53]

Why the third person post? Why not just come out and say that you dumped a bunch of money into the goat raffle?

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That's a fair question Grundy.

To be perfectly honest I deliberately used the third person since it seemed more like a light-hearted courtesy than a horn tooting.  Quite frankly, I was surprised that in this day and age the WDFW website doesn't update automatically.  For crying out loud...it's 2016!  I'd be a little ticked at WDFW if I went into it not knowing what the updated odds are, only to find out three or four other guys bought a chunk at pretty much the exact same time.

Regards,

Allen

That's understandable. Thanks for the response.

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[Bushcraft]

Once again just another ave for the rich to play and the poor guy get suckered into buying..

I'm not rich. I'm just a guy that works his butt off and has a very specific set of prioritized goals and objectives in life.  One of them happens to be hunting goats in this state and being able to enjoy the DIY experience with hunting buddies over the course of the fall season instead of a 5-7 day "hurry-up-golf" type of guided hunt in B.C. where you just show up, hike up and shoot the one a guide points out. Could someone that buys one tag win it? Absolutely. In fact, that may have happened last year but I don't know for certain.

[bobcat]

The person who won the goat raffle last year bought 10 tickets. I just looked it up.

[jkthomps]

The WDFW website doesn't reflect it yet, but the goat tag raffle got heavily flooded yesterday by a guy who still has some in reserve.  Evidently, WDFW only updates the website once a week.

As it stands now, it will take at least $25K to get 60% odds at this point if historical figures are any indication. And, at least $60K or more to get to 85%.  Of course, a guy that buys just one tag would win it all. Crazy.

Anyway, I'm just passing this along as a courtesy since it would suck for someone that's thinking about doing it to depend on WDFW's outdated website for the latest raffle tag count and then end up inadvertently screwing themselves on the odds...and whoever else that already laid down some dough for mountain goat conservation.

I just decreased your odds by a lot. Sorry.

[Ridgerunner]

Bushcraft, good luck!  You seem to want the tag pretty bad, its crazy how much the governor tag is going for now, it used to be a pretty good bargin I'm not sure why the demand is so high now though, maybe goats are the new sheep, IDK. 

[whacker1]

Trying to not come across like a jerk, but what is the point of starting this thread? I sort of get the feel that you're bragging about it.

   The raffles should be capped at a certain # of tickets per person. If you want a goat hunt and are dropping alot of money, go north, or buy the auction tag. Everyone should be able to have the same chance...ya, ya i know that we all do in the draw.....  also, I am not saying I disagree with $ going towards our wildlife at all.. just don't agree with filling the tumbler...

I agree. I'd much rather see a cap on raffle tag purchases than see 1 guy "buy" the raffle. Folks can say everyone has a chance but when a guy drops $10k on raffle tickets, that pretty much destroys most everyone else's odds of winning it.

I appreciate that Bushcraft came on here to say that he dumped a bunch of tickets into the game and hope that he has grand success and shares it with us.  But I do agree that I wish that they would cap the buying on these raffle tags at set figure of tickets available to any one individual.  But until they do, I hope it is guys like him that win, participate and share

[whacker1]

Once again just another ave for the rich to play and the poor guy get suckered into buying..

I'm not rich. I'm just a guy that works his butt off and has a very specific set of prioritized goals and objectives in life.  One of them happens to be hunting goats in this state and being able to enjoy the DIY experience with hunting buddies over the course of the fall season instead of a 5-7 day "hurry-up-golf" type of guided hunt in B.C. where you just show up, hike up and shoot the one a guide points out. Could someone that buys one tag win it? Absolutely. In fact, that may have happened last year but I don't know for certain.

I like your logic on spending the whole season with friends after the experience.  I hope you share the experience with us along the way.  Again, Best of luck and I will find one of the other raffles to put my money in

[Rainier10]

It sounds like you have a plan and I wish you luck.

It will be interesting to see if this tactic works.  I am not sure I would have told the world about it and maybe dropped the cash at the last minute.  This may work and keep others from spending $60 or $120 on a few tickets, only time will tell.  This may come down to you and another big spender taking your chances at a coin flip for the tag with each of you buying 49% of the tickets and the other 2% going to the smaller investors.

I do hope if you or whoever is lucky enough to win the raffle that you keep us in the loop and let us follow along.

[Skillet]

It's a good poker move.  In the game I've played in,  sometimes the guy with the big bank will over bet early on hopes of pushing everybody out. In poker, he's called a bully.  We all don't really like it at the table, and all wish we had the chips to pull it off ourselves.
Probably totally different in the raffle, though.

[Colville]

The raffle's purpose isn't equality. It's revenue. With the idea, if not reality, that the one animal cash haul is dedicated to that species development in the state.  Caps to x tix per person are going to cut the haul significantly. It's "likely" to be won by a thicker than average wallet, but odds on one ticket are better than a number of ordinarly special permit draws.  If I didn't have kids in high competition sports I could be dropping big into these things.... instead, OIL permit draw here I come.

[Colville]

It's a good poker move.  In the game I've played in,  sometimes the guy with the big bank will over bet early on hopes of pushing everybody out. In poker, he's called a bully.  We all don't really like it at the table, and all wish we had the chips to pull it off ourselves.
Probably totally different in the raffle, though.

The difference is that you can't bluff.  You can tilt the table with real tag purchases and that puts a huge dent in the thought that one or two guys might have been able to get 75% odds.  They still could but now it takes a lot more resources.  It's definitely an aggressive move, but there's no bluffing.

Now if the state wanted to protect maximum sales.... they could chose to post NO updates on tickets sold until the moment of the draw. hmmmm  Now every guy hoping to tilt the scales has to go blind.