Goat Tag Raffle - Flooded

[Skillet]

Agreed, it was a bit of a stretch... 

 I have no problem with raffles and unlimited ticket buying opportunities.
Draw - everybody has relatively the same odds (very bad) at a very low buy-in
Raffle - Increase your odds by increasing your buy-in, but still not a 100% guarantee
Gov Tag - Bid more than the second place guy and your odds of winning are 100%

There's room for all three methods.  Trying to limit raffle tags to make it more like a draw defeats the purpose - shaking down the medium money players who would otherwise sit on the sidelines of the Gov tag auctions.

Interesting point about publishing tickets bought. 

[emac]

Bushcraft. If you win the raffle pick me, pick me to tag along. Hopefully I am the first to ask

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[High Climber]

I'm gonna be the guy that draws with one ticket :chuckle:sorry about your luck

[Bushcraft]

Bushcraft. If you win the raffle pick me, pick me to tag along. Hopefully I am the first to ask

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With some luck, there will be plenty of room for extra glass on the mountain. 

[PlateauNDN]

So there's still a chance I could win...

[Buckjunkie]

This is funny. I have a friend that said he just dropped $10k in the goat raffle. Can't wait to see the new numbers.

[kentrek]

Your odds keep going down...sorry

[emac]

Bushcraft. If you win the raffle pick me, pick me to tag along. Hopefully I am the first to ask

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With some luck, there will be plenty of room for extra glass on the mountain. 

Well keep me in mind if you draw. But hopefully I am chasing my own goat

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[Buckjunkie]

The WDFW website doesn't reflect it yet, but the goat tag raffle got heavily flooded yesterday by a guy who still has some in reserve.  Evidently, WDFW only updates the website once a week.

As it stands now, it will take at least $25K to get 60% odds at this point if historical figures are any indication. And, at least $60K or more to get to 85%.  Of course, a guy that buys just one tag would win it all. Crazy.

Anyway, I'm just passing this along as a courtesy since it would suck for someone that's thinking about doing it to depend on WDFW's outdated website for the latest raffle tag count and then end up inadvertently screwing themselves on the odds...and whoever else that already laid down some dough for mountain goat conservation.

I will challenge your math:

$25,000 to get 60% odds means there is a total of $16,666 including the 147 that already show on WDFW's website.

$60,000 to get 85% odds means there is a total of $10,588 including the 147 showing.

Both can't be true?

[Bango skank]

Ive never bought raffle tickets, but despite my wish to give wdfw as little money as possible im having a hard time not buying a handful of moose tickets.  I really want a wa moose tag!  This thread isnt helping.

[Rainier10]

Ive never bought raffle tickets, but despite my wish to give wdfw as little money as possible im having a hard time not buying a handful of moose tickets.  I really want a wa moose tag!  This thread isnt helping.

This thread has inspired me to get involved in one or more of these raffles.

that is why i think this is going to be so interesting to watch.

[Bushcraft]

The WDFW website doesn't reflect it yet, but the goat tag raffle got heavily flooded yesterday by a guy who still has some in reserve.  Evidently, WDFW only updates the website once a week.

As it stands now, it will take at least $25K to get 60% odds at this point if historical figures are any indication. And, at least $60K or more to get to 85%.  Of course, a guy that buys just one tag would win it all. Crazy.

Anyway, I'm just passing this along as a courtesy since it would suck for someone that's thinking about doing it to depend on WDFW's outdated website for the latest raffle tag count and then end up inadvertently screwing themselves on the odds...and whoever else that already laid down some dough for mountain goat conservation.

I will challenge your math:

$25,000 to get 60% odds means there is a total of $16,666 including the 147 that already show on WDFW's website.

$60,000 to get 85% odds means there is a total of $10,588 including the 147 showing.

Both can't be true?

Sorry for any confusion.  It was quickie math for the purpose of brevity.  I'm including another 4K in reserve plus 500ish tags bought by others in increments.  Here's a chart of diminishing returns.

[Tbar]

Good luck.  This would be an amazing hunt.

[Buckjunkie]

Good Luck!

[jkthomps]

The WDFW website doesn't reflect it yet, but the goat tag raffle got heavily flooded yesterday by a guy who still has some in reserve.  Evidently, WDFW only updates the website once a week.

As it stands now, it will take at least $25K to get 60% odds at this point if historical figures are any indication. And, at least $60K or more to get to 85%.  Of course, a guy that buys just one tag would win it all. Crazy.

Anyway, I'm just passing this along as a courtesy since it would suck for someone that's thinking about doing it to depend on WDFW's outdated website for the latest raffle tag count and then end up inadvertently screwing themselves on the odds...and whoever else that already laid down some dough for mountain goat conservation.

I will challenge your math:

$25,000 to get 60% odds means there is a total of $16,666 including the 147 that already show on WDFW's website.

$60,000 to get 85% odds means there is a total of $10,588 including the 147 showing.

Both can't be true?

Sorry for any confusion.  It was quickie math for the purpose of brevity.  I'm including another 4K in reserve plus 500ish tags bought by others in increments.  Here's a chart of diminishing returns.

This is a start but what is your input data? Where is your margin for error?  What are you entering for unknown number of tags for others? Are you using a law of large numbers or past 5 year tags sold, 10 year?  I need more info lol.

I like the graph, but it doesn't help without knowing your input factors. Details man detail