Bighorn sheep increase to apply

[shanevg]

The AG believes there are legal issues with them holding money when it's fronted so that won't happen.  In the next 3 year cycle, we are going to propose that you pick whether you would like to apply for an OIL species or deer/elk, much like Idaho.  You would keep your points in every category but the odds will theoretically almost double although many people don't apply for OIL species and just deer/elk or vice versa.  You would only have to choose what you would like to prioritize on what you are applying for.  If you don't care about sheep but it's cheap and easy to apply so you do, you might likely keep applying for the Blues elk or coveted deer tag instead.  Those that really want a sheep/goat/moose would have a higher chance of drawing.

The only way to increase odds is to lower the applicant base.  Period.  No other system will work and make it "fair".

The only way to increase odds is to lower the applicant base.  Period.  No other system will work and make it "fair".
  Absolutely true and I'm glad people are finally realizing it! 

I really like going to the Idaho system as you mentioned, especially if we can still apply for points in all categories.  (Seriously, why would WDFW not allow that as they continue to make money?)  I sure hope this gets pushed through!

[X-Force]

I may be a simpleton but how would building points in all categories but only applying for 1 change the odds? Across the board odds would remain the same correct? The goal is to lower the applicant base. If everyone was acquiring points across the board the applicant base would remain the same.

Wouldn't this change necessitate allowing people to keep there points they have acquired so far but from here on limiting them to build points only in species they are applying for?

[BULLBLASTER]

I may be a simpleton but how would building points in all categories but only applying for 1 change the odds? Across the board odds would remain the same correct? The goal is to lower the applicant base. If everyone was acquiring points across the board the applicant base would remain the same.

Wouldn't this change necessitate allowing people to keep there points they have acquired so far but from here on limiting them to build points only in species they are applying for?

I personally say you should only accrue points in applied species. But either way would increase odds because there would be less names in the hat for everything.
If I applied for deer and not moose. My name being out of the moose draw increases your odds.

[Dhoey07]

My solution to the application racket that the state runs.

Dual system.

A hunter can only apply for 1 system per hunting year.

60% of the tags will be allocated to "The Points" system.  Meaning the system in place now, points squared plus one = names in the hat.

40% of the tags go to a "Idaho Style" system.  No point accumulation, 1 permit app = 1 name in the hat.

There will be a point when people stop applying for special draws because they know that the percentage is so low, there is and never will be a chance to draw. 

[shanevg]

I may be a simpleton but how would building points in all categories but only applying for 1 change the odds? Across the board odds would remain the same correct? The goal is to lower the applicant base. If everyone was acquiring points across the board the applicant base would remain the same.

Wouldn't this change necessitate allowing people to keep there points they have acquired so far but from here on limiting them to build points only in species they are applying for?

If you assumed everyone would evenly distribute between the 4 categories (1. Deer/Elk 2. Sheep 3. Moose 4. Goat) and for simplicity assume there are 1000 applicants that would either a. apply for all 4 categories, or 4. evenly distribute between the 4 categories.   When everyone applies in all 4 categories, you get 1/1000+1/1000+1/1000+1/1000 = 4/4000 (since each category is mutually exclusive, not drawing in one category does nothing to hurt or help your odds in the other category.)  When everyone can only apply in one category your odds in that one category would be 1/250 so your odds of drawing a tag actually improves dramatically!

(What you lose by allowing hunters to apply in only one category is the potential to draw in multiple categories in a given year.  But by simple math, the odds of that happening is only 1/1000*1/1000 or 1/100,000 so I'm not really concerned with that possibility.  I'd rather have a 1/250 odd of drawing a single tag than have 1/1000 odds of drawing a tag+1/100000 odds of drawing two tags.)

That's keeping math simple, the reality is that things would not be evenly distributed.  If you look at Idaho, deer/elk/pronghorn tags get about 80-90% of the total applicants.  The OIL tags see odds improve dramatically.  Furthermore, in WA you would actually have a chance of starting to cycle through the top point holders in a given category (particularly in moose where there are enough tags every year to actually make a significant impact on the total number of applicants.)  My guess is we would see goat odds in the ballpark of 1/25 - 1/50 (as goats are generally not considered as good of a "trophy" animal as moose/sheep).  Moose odds in the range of 1/40 - 1/60 (a lot of people want to hunt moose but there are also enough tags that odds wont' look so terrible).  Sheep odds in the range of 1/50 - 1/100 (sheep is still considered the pinnacle of trophy hunting and we have some really good units in our state.)  I think deer/elk odds would probably improve by 20-30% overall.   

The real advantage of this is that a hunter can get in the game and say: "I really want to hunt sheep in my life in WA" and keep applying for sheep his/her whole life and statistically have a realistic chance of that happening.  The way it stands now with sheep odds in the 1/3000 to 1/7000 range, statistically 99.99% of us will never sniff a sheep tag in our life.

[X-Force]

I may be a simpleton but how would building points in all categories but only applying for 1 change the odds? Across the board odds would remain the same correct? The goal is to lower the applicant base. If everyone was acquiring points across the board the applicant base would remain the same.

Wouldn't this change necessitate allowing people to keep there points they have acquired so far but from here on limiting them to build points only in species they are applying for?

I personally say you should only accrue points in applied species. But either way would increase odds because there would be less names in the hat for everything.
If I applied for deer and not moose. My name being out of the moose draw increases your odds.

But the points you acquire would negate any increase in draw odds because people with high points would clog the top every time the moved from species to species and there wouldn't be any direct reduction in applicants to permit. Its like pressure. You have the same volume just going through a smaller hole.

[bobcat]

I may be a simpleton but how would building points in all categories but only applying for 1 change the odds? Across the board odds would remain the same correct? The goal is to lower the applicant base. If everyone was acquiring points across the board the applicant base would remain the same.

Wouldn't this change necessitate allowing people to keep there points they have acquired so far but from here on limiting them to build points only in species they are applying for?

If the goal is to increase odds of drawing, building points in multiple categories is not helpful. Especially when it comes to the recruitment of new hunters.

[X-Force]

There will be a point when people stop applying for special draws because they know that the percentage is so low, there is and never will be a chance to draw.

I don't agree with you. Look at how bad the odds are right now and look at the state and federal lottery system. Basically all of the western states are banking on people not doing math. Look at the articles on what it takes to draw coveted out of state tags. You are better off investing in your livelihood and going on outfitted hunts in many circumstances, when you consider the years invested and money spent. 

[shanevg]

If the goal is to increase odds of drawing, building points in multiple categories is not helpful. Especially when it comes to the recruitment of new hunters.

That's actually not correct, take a look at my earlier post.  Everyone's odds of drawing a tag will actually go up.  You just don't have a chance at drawing more than 1 tag in a year (well maybe 1 deer+1 elk tag.)

The reason WDFW should allow people to continue to build points is:
1. WDFW won't agree to a system that will reduce their revenue.
2. Hunters in general are less likely to "buy in" to a system where they feel their hard earned points in all the categories are going to be "lost" forever.  By allowing hunters to continue to build points in all categories they could jump from category to category in a given year and not get "behind."  (I.e. apply for goat this year, deer/elk next year, sheep the following year, and then back to goat.)

[BULLBLASTER]

I may be a simpleton but how would building points in all categories but only applying for 1 change the odds? Across the board odds would remain the same correct? The goal is to lower the applicant base. If everyone was acquiring points across the board the applicant base would remain the same.

Wouldn't this change necessitate allowing people to keep there points they have acquired so far but from here on limiting them to build points only in species they are applying for?

I personally say you should only accrue points in applied species. But either way would increase odds because there would be less names in the hat for everything.
If I applied for deer and not moose. My name being out of the moose draw increases your odds.

But the points you acquire would negate any increase in draw odds because people with high points would clog the top every time the moved from species to species and there wouldn't be any direct reduction in applicants to permit. Its like pressure. You have the same volume just going through a smaller hole.

but all those points are not in the draw in every year. My 14 moose points won't be in the moose draw while I apply for deer and elk.
Besides as it is now the points in the oil categories are essentially meaningless anyhow. Bottom line less names in the hat = higher odds.
Like I said I'd personally rather see only points accrued in active category for that year

[shanevg]

but all those points are not in the draw in every year. My 14 moose points won't be in the moose draw while I apply for deer and elk.
Besides as it is now the points in the oil categories are essentially meaningless anyhow. Bottom line less names in the hat = higher odds.
Like I said I'd personally rather see only points accrued in active category for that year

I'm actually with you.  I think that's the most fair system and would not mind seeing it set up that way at all.  I'm just afraid that's a harder sell to both the hunters and to WDFW.

[BULLBLASTER]

but all those points are not in the draw in every year. My 14 moose points won't be in the moose draw while I apply for deer and elk.
Besides as it is now the points in the oil categories are essentially meaningless anyhow. Bottom line less names in the hat = higher odds.
Like I said I'd personally rather see only points accrued in active category for that year

I'm actually with you.  I think that's the most fair system and would not mind seeing it set up that way at all.  I'm just afraid that's a harder sell to both the hunters and to WDFW.

i hear ya. People and their sacred points.    either way would work wonders for draw odds.

[bearpaw]

If you have a lot of points it's a big investment, I don't see them going away! 

[X-Force]

I can see what you guys are saying but what I'm saying is that having everyone acquiring a point for everything across the board and only applying for just 1 is just a gimmick with the same results. Meaning we have 30,000 permits each year and 61,500 applicants with 245,000 applications whether you apply for only 1 species or you apply for every single permit your odds would remain the same because those numbers arent changing. The only thing changing is the preciseness of an individuals application.

If we had 30000 permits and 61500 applicants with 61500 applications we would have a meaningful change.

To make my point: now until 10 years

1) current system : 30,000 permits, 61,500 applicants, 245,000 applications (total points accumulated)
2) your system you can get points for all categories like today but only put in for 1 species: 30,000 permits, 61,500 applicants, 61,500 applications, 245,000 total points (application point and category points)
3) my system you only receive a point for the single category you put in for 30,000 permits, 61,500 applicants, 61,500 applications (total points)

After ten years the total points accumulated from now until then is as follows
1) current system 2,350,000
2) your system 2,350,000
3) my system 315,000

[bearpaw]

The best way to increase odds is buy a lot of raffle tickets or a governor tag!