Here are some numbers I ran on Moose odds based on the 2015 draw summary:
Total applicants: 23,861
Total numbers in the hat: 1,844,164
Total tags available: 107
So, if you had 20 points (400 numbers in the hat), your basic odds of being one of the top 107 numbers chosen would look like this: 1,844,164/400/107 = 43. I.e., 1:43.
Someone with 10 points would be 4x worse off with their 100 numbers in the hat, or 1,844,164/100/107 = 172, i.e., 1:172.
You can increase your odds from there by putting down Hangman or Parker or one of the other "easier" to draw odds, because it is likely that there are still Hangman tags left once we get to number 107 in the draw. Conversely, you'd probably be worse off if you only put down one choice and it was 49DN or Huckleberry. Also, the average applicant only applies for 2.6 hunt choices out of a possible 4, so that will impact the draw odds somewhat as well.
