Point odds for Oil tags

[time2hunt]

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[Skyvalhunter]

Courtesy Huntin fool

[Bob33]

http://wdfw.wa.gov/hunting/permits/results/points/2015.php

You can get it from the source.

[Magnum_Willys]

Shows why its more likely someone with one or two points will draw (7297 chances) vs one of the four with 21 points (1764 chances) 

[Bob33]

Shows why its more likely someone with one or two points will draw (7297 chances) vs one of the four with 21 points (1764 chances) 

That's right. "I knew someone who drew with one point!" is because there are so many of them, not because their individual odds are better.

[WAcoueshunter]

Here are some numbers I ran on Moose odds based on the 2015 draw summary:

Total applicants:  23,861
Total numbers in the hat:  1,844,164
Total tags available:  107

So, if you had 20 points (400 numbers in the hat), your basic odds of being one of the top 107 numbers chosen would look like this:  1,844,164/400/107 = 43.  I.e., 1:43. 

Someone with 10 points would be 4x worse off with their 100 numbers in the hat, or 1,844,164/100/107 = 172, i.e., 1:172.

You can increase your odds from there by putting down Hangman or Parker or one of the other "easier" to draw odds, because it is likely that there are still Hangman tags left once we get to number 107 in the draw.  Conversely, you'd probably be worse off if you only put down one choice and it was 49DN or Huckleberry.  Also, the average applicant only applies for 2.6 hunt choices out of a possible 4, so that will impact the draw odds somewhat as well. 

[RadSav]

If I'm the guy with 11 fall turkey points that can't get drawn...I'd be claiming to be the "Most Unsuccessful Man Alive!"

It's nice when I find out that there are bigger losers in this world than me!!   Gives me hope!   

[Ridgerunner]

What amazes me is with the odds being so low how many guys are jumping into the points game each year.

[carlyoungs]

The overall odds are pretty hard to draw any tag with 20 points or 1 point. Can't win if you dont put in. That's why i just got in the game. I'm still fairly young and want a shot at a moose or ram.

[Bob33]

What amazes me is with the odds being so low how many guys are jumping into the points game each year.

Hope springs eternal; it's only after 20 years of not being drawn that many start to get skeptical.

[Ridgerunner]

Cheap way to dream big too. 


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[Whitenuckles]

I only have 11 points. I feel hopeless after reading this.

[LabChamp]

Cheap way to dream big too. 


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STUD

[fishngamereaper]

Cheap way to dream big too. 


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Your mean....

[andrew_in_idaho]

Haha my dad is in that top point category on both moose and mountain goat. I don't know what to think of that. Maybe I should plan some time off to join him on a hunt this fall. Then again the odds are probably still against him drawing.


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[shanevg]

Haha my dad is in that top point category on both moose and mountain goat. I don't know what to think of that. Maybe I should plan some time off to join him on a hunt this fall. Then again the odds are probably still against him drawing.


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Odds are probably still less than 1% for goat and less than 2% for moose even with max points.  Plus they are going down every year as we continue to water down the pot by squaring so many peoples points.  We really need to change our OIL permit system.   

[Buckblaster]

Those points are for 2015, when I had 20 points for Any Ram and for Any Moose, and there is still no guarantee that I will ever draw.  That's why I put in for Wyoming moose for 15 years, at least I knew I would draw eventually with preference points, and now I have a freezer full of moose meat.

[lhrbull]

blaster which unit did you draw in Wyoming

[WAcoueshunter]

Those points are for 2015, when I had 20 points for Any Ram and for Any Moose, and there is still no guarantee that I will ever draw.  That's why I put in for Wyoming moose for 15 years, at least I knew I would draw eventually with preference points, and now I have a freezer full of moose meat.

You were smart to get in at the beginning.  Those of us that waited in WY (I've got about 9), are now stuck behind all those preference point tags.  Point creep is almost 1 point per year, I may never catch up. 

[trophyhunt]

Those points are for 2015, when I had 20 points for Any Ram and for Any Moose, and there is still no guarantee that I will ever draw.  That's why I put in for Wyoming moose for 15 years, at least I knew I would draw eventually with preference points, and now I have a freezer full of moose meat.

You were smart to get in at the beginning.  Those of us that waited in WY (I've got about 9), are now stuck behind all those preference point tags.  Point creep is almost 1 point per year, I may never catch up.

yup, I missed one dang year and my odds are way different than if I had max points.  Stupid me spaced out one year! 

[Katmai Guy]

So, wouldn't it put the better odds for the people with the most points if we got rid of the draw for the one lowest number to use in the final draw and just had the number generator draw a number to match a number in somebody's squared pool?