how to fix WA. OIL draw system

[Bob33]

Changing the system mid stream to make it easier for certain individuals to draw will make it more difficult or costly for others to draw. More winners means more losers unless permit numbers are increased.

[ramslam]

There is no doubt that Pope's idea would increase everyone's odds significantly for one species.  I would have to evaluate the data/predictions/assumptions considerably, however, before I could support it.  It looks good from the surface, but let's not make the same mistake WDFW did and not seriously evaluate what it looks like long term.

I 'll use sheep as an example.  I'm going to assume 2000 of the sheep applicants stay in the game (a higher percentage than in Idaho because our harvest success is considerably higher and the vast majority of our sheep areas are not as physical).  With ~25 ram tags a year it would take 80 years to fulfill those 2000 assuming there are no new applicants.  In the mean time their odds of drawing quality elk = 0, bull elk = 0, antlerless elk = 0, quality deer = 0, buck deer = 0, antlerless deer = 0, 2nd deer = 0, etc.    How many will stick it out the 80 years to draw sheep?  Will Pope and other max guys that love sheep draw the next ten years or so?  Likely, but a drastic change like this will still mean the majority of applicants will still never draw sheep and consequently no other special permit as well for any other species.

I can't offer a fair solution that will drastically increase odds.  The system currently favors those with the most points yet offers hope for the newbies.  I think the special categories need to go and I think every category of OIL should be OIL for that species.

For the record I only need moose for all three OIL tags so logic says I would support Pope's plan.  I do not want to focus on what's best for me, however, I want to look at all applicants as a whole.

Great discussion!

[trophyhunt]

Changing the system mid stream to make it easier for certain individuals to draw will make it more difficult or costly for others to draw. More winners means more losers unless permit numbers are increased.

Im surely no spokesman for Shawns proposal, but my idea involved NO increase in costs, you simply buy your ghost points for the species you can't draw for.  The odds would most definitely increase for OIL tags, most hunters will choose to apply for deer/elk permits, only the serious oil hunters will choose oil over deer/elk.  I bet, without any scientific facts, that 75% of hunters would choose deer/elk draws over the big three oil's.  Just my 2cents

[trophyhunt]

And I don't see how it makes it easier for only certain individuals?  It would make it easier across the board.  I'm also not saying Shawns idea will make it easy to draw, just easier. 

[WAPatriot]

Get rid of points system and increase the fee to apply and make people float money for tags. That would increase odds

[trophyhunt]

Get rid of points system and increase the fee to apply and make people float money for tags. That would increase odds

That will just not happen, the state will never give up this machine that prints money. 

[180-GRAIN]

I like that it is a truly random system and allows a first time applicant a chance to draw a tag. However I would like to see a certain percent of tags go to people with max points. Also put a limit on non resident tags awarded like a lot of other states.

[X-Force]

I like that it is a truly random system and allows a first time applicant a chance to draw a tag. However I would like to see a certain percent of tags go to people with max points. Also put a limit on non resident tags awarded like a lot of other states.

Delegating permits for Max points holders has been proven to be a bad idea. But, I am all for finding out how many non residence put in for our draw and if they are drawing more than 10% of the tags I am all for putting a cap on it.

[trophyhunt]

I like that it is a truly random system and allows a first time applicant a chance to draw a tag. However I would like to see a certain percent of tags go to people with max points. Also put a limit on non resident tags awarded like a lot of other states.

yes, limited non resident tags!  I will email Wdfw on Monday to see if I can get some numbers on non residents.

[crabcreekhunter]

Heres some simple math so big horn sheep for example, lets say 30 tags a year (more than we currently have now) and 15000 applicants (less than we have now) so 500 years for everyone applying now to draw.  I dont know about ya'll but im not planning on hiking the swakane in 500 years and there will not be any sheep in this state in 500years, washington will not be a state in 500 years and hunting will not be around in 500 years.  Sooooooooo im assuming myself and thousands of others will never get to harvest a sheep and goat in our lifetimes. Simple truth.  Considering all that, I feel that my odds are as fair as can be with the system now. Other states have other systems that are far from perfect also, work for their population/animal densities which are different than Washingtons.  The world has always revolved around money and the WDFW is no different.  If you have the money there is plenty of options for sheep and goat in North America with price tags that arent as astronomical as Govenors tags here.  Even though Ill have 20 points next year doesnt give me any more entitlement to a tag than bigfoots stepsister henrietta littlefoot. 

[trophyhunt]

Heres some simple math so big horn sheep for example, lets say 30 tags a year (more than we currently have now) and 15000 applicants (less than we have now) so 500 years for everyone applying now to draw.  I dont know about ya'll but im not planning on hiking the swakane in 500 years and there will not be any sheep in this state in 500years, washington will not be a state in 500 years and hunting will not be around in 500 years.  Sooooooooo im assuming myself and thousands of others will never get to harvest a sheep and goat in our lifetimes. Simple truth.  Considering all that, I feel that my odds are as fair as can be with the system now. Other states have other systems that are far from perfect also, work for their population/animal densities which are different than Washingtons.  The world has always revolved around money and the WDFW is no different.  If you have the money there is plenty of options for sheep and goat in North America with price tags that arent as astronomical as Govenors tags here.  Even though Ill have 20 points next year doesnt give me any more entitlement to a tag than bigfoots stepsister henrietta littlefoot.

I'm hoping Ridgrunner will chime in with some real stats on how much better our odds will be if far less people apply.  And I guess I differ with you on the whole entitlement comment, cause I do feel a guy with 20 points is way more entitled to that tag than bigfoots step sister who just decided to put in this year with 1 point.

[bobcat]

I like that it is a truly random system and allows a first time applicant a chance to draw a tag. However I would like to see a certain percent of tags go to people with max points. Also put a limit on non resident tags awarded like a lot of other states.

yes, limited non resident tags!  I will email Wdfw on Monday to see if I can get some numbers on non residents.

They won't give you that information. I asked last year and was told no.

[ramslam]

I see the sheep/goat list about every year. It is a very, very low number going to non-residents. Like 0-2 total for both species so far less than 10%. Not sure about moose. That said, it would be prudent to place a cap at a max of 10% before it becomes an issue.

[X-Force]

If every moose, sheep and goat permit was an oil draw and if people were required to be more discerning in their applications (select 1 or 2 species and 2 options) Washington could easily have better draw odds than 30/1500 for sheep.

WDFW requires us to be discerning in or license and tag purchases, weapon selection, side of the state etc.. So how is it that making the same discerning requirements for special permit applications that big of a stretch or a negative? I don't thin this has anything to do with someone deserving a permit more than another..In this state everyone has a chance, a change would mean that people would have a greater likelihood of drawing the permits most important to them.

[trophyhunt]

I like that it is a truly random system and allows a first time applicant a chance to draw a tag. However I would like to see a certain percent of tags go to people with max points. Also put a limit on non resident tags awarded like a lot of other states.

yes, limited non resident tags!  I will email Wdfw on Monday to see if I can get some numbers on non residents.

They won't give you that information. I asked last year and was told no.

really? That is strange, why the secret?  Seems like it would be public info.