how to fix WA. OIL draw system

[WAcoueshunter]

The 5 times with a probability of 1:100 are not connected at all. You still only have a 1:100 chance to win anything. If those 100 people could only apply in one of the 5 and evenly distributed you would have 1 tag for 20 apps. Therefore a drastic increase in odds

If you only want the goat tag, your odds indeed go from 1:100 to 1:20.  But if you are happy with any of the five, your current odds of drawing any one of the five (without getting to choose which) are already 1:20.  When you make people choose which of the five to apply for, the overall odds of drawing a quality tag stay at 1:20, but you essentially get to choose that species with the downside being that you're giving up on the rest. 

Think of it this way - right now, it's the same 100 people in each of the five draws.  Five tags, 100 total people, odds of drawing any of the five tags are 1:20.  If those 100 people are divided up by species, with 20 people applying in each of the five categories, odds are still 1:20.

Take that a step further, and if you're sitting on max points for the five categories, and you've got 1:20 combined odds right now, you might draw moose 10 years from now (or 1 or 30).  Cross moose off after you draw, and you're still sitting on max for the other four.  Now go the Idaho route and force that guy to just pick moose.  His 1:20 odds might still produce a tag in Year 10.  Problem is, in Year 11, he's now WAY behind in the other draws.  He's the loser in the Idaho system.

[BULLBLASTER]

The odds don't compound that way for completely unrelated events. All 5 of the draws are unrelated... You have 1:100 in one draw. 1:100 in another draw so on so forth.
Still 1:100 it is 1;100 5 times but that is not the same as 5:100. It is 5:500.
If the pool stayed the same and draw was pulled from the same pool it would be 5:100.
Each of the 1:100 draws are completely separate and unrelated to one another. The odds of any have zero affect on any other.

https://www.quora.com/If-I-have-a-1-100-chance-of-something-happening-when-I-do-something-and-I-do-that-thing-3-times-does-it-mean-a-3-100-chance-of-that-outcome

This explains it Better. It is close to the same for a small sample of 5 draws... But the real benefit would be to clear out all the "I'll apply because I can" apps. For example I really don't care if I draw goat or sheep but I still apply in WA because I can and what the hell why not. Not I really want a moose or elk tag. I'd rather have the "because I can" apps out of the moose or elk pool to increase my odds there. And I'm sure the die hard sheep and goat guys would rather I didn't apply "because I can" in the draws they really want....

[BULLBLASTER]

The 5 times with a probability of 1:100 are not connected at all. You still only have a 1:100 chance to win anything. If those 100 people could only apply in one of the 5 and evenly distributed you would have 1 tag for 20 apps. Therefore a drastic increase in odds

If you only want the goat tag, your odds indeed go from 1:100 to 1:20.  But if you are happy with any of the five, your current odds of drawing any one of the five (without getting to choose which) are already 1:20.  When you make people choose which of the five to apply for, the overall odds of drawing a quality tag stay at 1:20, but you essentially get to choose that species with the downside being that you're giving up on the rest. 

Think of it this way - right now, it's the same 100 people in each of the five draws.  Five tags, 100 total people, odds of drawing any of the five tags are 1:20.  If those 100 people are divided up by species, with 20 people applying in each of the five categories, odds are still 1:20.

Take that a step further, and if you're sitting on max points for the five categories, and you've got 1:20 combined odds right now, you might draw moose 10 years from now (or 1 or 30).  Cross moose off after you draw, and you're still sitting on max for the other four.  Now go the Idaho route and force that guy to just pick moose.  His 1:20 odds might still produce a tag in Year 10.  Problem is, in Year 11, he's now WAY behind in the other draws.  He's the loser in the Idaho system.

so let him keep buying points in the other categories he isn't applying for.  but only one he could actually apply for a hunt. The rest... Points only.

[stew pidasso]

My thought is let us do what we want with our pts. Keep all permit categories for the revenue. But allow me to combine my deer, elk, ect. To whatever categories I want, like an oil category or quality. I figure within a few years there would be a lot less pts in the system.
Example.
I have 20 pts in q deer. 20 pts in q bull. 4 pts in antlerless cow. 9 in bull elk. 7 in buck deer. I really want to hunt my q elk so I add all of them to my submission in q elk which would be 60 pts. I may or may not get drawn. But if I did there would be a lot less pts in the system the next year. I know the number of applicants stays relatively the same but you could up your chances with names in the hat.

Anybody giving this any thoughts?

[BULLBLASTER]

My thought is let us do what we want with our pts. Keep all permit categories for the revenue. But allow me to combine my deer, elk, ect. To whatever categories I want, like an oil category or quality. I figure within a few years there would be a lot less pts in the system.
Example.
I have 20 pts in q deer. 20 pts in q bull. 4 pts in antlerless cow. 9 in bull elk. 7 in buck deer. I really want to hunt my q elk so I add all of them to my submission in q elk which would be 60 pts. I may or may not get drawn. But if I did there would be a lot less pts in the system the next year. I know the number of applicants stays relatively the same but you could up your chances with names in the hat.

Anybody giving this any thoughts?

absolutely no way!
I already got screwed once by drawing a elk permit in 2008. Had I known my points would go into every category I would have ghost pointed that year. Essentially people got 20-40 free points that I didn't.... They have already completely screwed it all up...

[87Ford]

absolutely no way!
I already got screwed once by drawing a elk permit in 2008. Had I known my points would go into every category I would have ghost pointed that year. Essentially people got 20-40 free points that I didn't.... They have already completely screwed it all up...

I also got screwed by drawing that year.  People got free points that I didn't because my points had gone to zero.  Think it was 2009 though..

[stew pidasso]

What was max pts you could have that year. I'm just trying to add up how many pts total you would be behind.


 

My thought is let us do what we want with our pts. Keep all permit categories for the revenue. But allow me to combine my deer, elk, ect. To whatever categories I want, like an oil category or quality. I figure within a few years there would be a lot less pts in the system.
Example.
I have 20 pts in q deer. 20 pts in q bull. 4 pts in antlerless cow. 9 in bull elk. 7 in buck deer. I really want to hunt my q elk so I add all of them to my submission in q elk which would be 60 pts. I may or may not get drawn. But if I did there would be a lot less pts in the system the next year. I know the number of applicants stays relatively the same but you could up your chances with names in the hat.

Anybody giving this any thoughts?

absolutely no way!
I already got screwed once by drawing a elk permit in 2008. Had I known my points would go into every category I would have ghost pointed that year. Essentially people got 20-40 free points that I didn't.... They have already completely screwed it all up...

[BULLBLASTER]

I drew with 9 points in 2008. So had I ghost pointed I would have had 9 in quality 9 in antler less and 9 in bull. That's 18 total points I didn't get. In actuality it was more since I applied as a partner with someone who had less. I don't remember how many I had tho. To be able to recombine would be rediculous.

Mostly I despise points systems anyhow. Idaho has the ideal system.

Oh and for the record they should implement a 5 year waiting period in any category after drawing. 

[brew]

here's an idea that will irate 99.9% of people on the site but a guaranteed way for the state to create more revenue (which this is ultimately all about anyway)...why does a person have to have a hunter ed card to start applying for permits ?  why can't a newborn/youth be able to start pumping money into the WDFW system and amass ghost points only and once they pass their hunter ed requirements be able to put in for permits ?  they are Washington citizens and if ultimately the wildlife within the state belongs to them as well i don't see a reason that they cannot pay their share to have the opportunity once they are able to start hunting and passing a hunter ed class demonstrates their commitment to do so ( i understand they are not employed and don't pay taxes but their parents do)...makes me shake my head that the majority of the people who want to make the drawing "fairer" are looking to swing the odds in their favor...

[BULLBLASTER]

I'd be just fine with what brew said. Let people buy a preference point only for any category or species without a license. Then to apply for a hunt they need a license

[WAcoueshunter]

I'd be just fine with what brew said. Let people buy a preference point only for any category or species without a license. Then to apply for a hunt they need a license

Your newborn can apply for OIL points.  You only need hunter ed to buy a license, which is required for deer and elk. 

[WAPatriot]

Eliminate youth, disabled and over 65 hunts

[trophyhunt]

Eliminate youth, disabled and over 65 hunts

[3boys]

Eliminate youth, disabled and over 65 hunts

There is nothing better then youth hunts to get our youth into the sport. Disabled and 65 and over hunts make me proud to be part of the sport. if nothing else provide more opportunity for the youth. Both my sons took a couple deer when they were youth and it was some of the best times of my hunting career. If I could gift my moose tag for this season to my son I would in a minute.

[danderson]

Problem is supply and Demand  lots of folks want one, only a few given out.