how to fix WA. OIL draw system

[Skyvalhunter]

Probably including all those goats in the Olympics, and enchantments that are thick as dog hair.

[shanevg]

If you limit it to one category, your odds of drawing THAT tag go up, but your odds of drawing A tag are the same.  Just think about it, same number of tags and same number of hunters.  Divide total tags by total hunters and the odds simply cannot change unless you reduce hunters or increase tags.  It's just playing games.

The only people that would benefit are the ones that only want to hunt a single species.  If you put in for them all every year it won't matter.

The problem is still numbers.  It isn't 100 people, it is 15,000 and counting.  If there isn't enough tags to clear the top points, point creep will continue to get worse. Limiting it to one category only delays the inevitable truth and it doesn't even fix it in the short term.

There would still be about 3,000 people in each draw with a bunch over 20 points.  Me sitting here with 6 won't ever have any reasonable chance of drawing.  Too few tags.

The only realistic fix is to combine all points into one category.  You can only put in for one including cow and doe tags.  Guys like me will bail on OIL and get our points cleared out frequently.  Guys staying with OIL will have better odds with the downside of not ever drawing any deer/elk/bear tags.  You would have to pick what you want and stick with it.  Incentivize hunters to pull out of the oil draw with easier to draw regular tags.

That's not correct. Because essentially every hunter applies in each of the 5 categories you are essentially multiplying the number of hunters by 5. Say there are 15k applicants for 200 tags but each applicant gets to apply 5 different times, you are actually getting 75,0000 applicants for 200 tags. By making everyone pick a category you are again reducing the pool back down to 15,000 applicants and GREATLY increasing everyone's odds of actually drawing a tag.

[trophyhunt]

I think they just need to add more goat tags....lol

In an area I frequent during summer time bear hunting there is a ton of goats I see large groups frequently and there is no permit for that area from what I have researched. I know Trophyhunt goes to the same area and has posted pics of goats he has seen. There should be at least one permit up there and it's in Western WA 653

Agree, I heard somewhere that wdfw wants 100 goats to have 1 permit?  That area I have seen them has a very nice billy, I want him bad!! Maybe with these pierce county prosecutors I should just go harvest him, probably just get off??                                                                I'm just kidding Huntwa, don't get your panties in a bunch. 

[shanevg]

I think they just need to add more goat tags....lol

In an area I frequent during summer time bear hunting there is a ton of goats I see large groups frequently and there is no permit for that area from what I have researched. I know Trophyhunt goes to the same area and has posted pics of goats he has seen. There should be at least one permit up there and it's in Western WA 653

I'm not a goat bio or expert but im pretty confident there could be more tags available...my experience is from around st hellens and there's no way that area couldn't support at least a couple

So just between mine and your area we could nearly double the odds !!!

  I seem to remember ready somewhere that washington has the highest goat population in the lower 48 states, but hands down has the fewest tags than any state and by a large margin.  Can't remember for the life of me where I read it though

You are correct. WA's goat population is the largest in the lower 48. There are more factors that go into tag numbers than you'd think though. Part of the reason for low tag numbers is conservative management. But also, introduced herds like those in CO, UT, NV, OR and some in MT (Crazy Mountain) herd reproduce at a much higher rate than native herds do (WA and ID.) As a result,states with native herds need to be more conservative in their tag numbers like WA and ID are.

With that said, WA state is obviously VERY conservative and I think a big reason for that is tribal harvest of goats. They simply don't know how many are harvested in a given year for a lot of these herds.

[Karl Blanchard]

I think they just need to add more goat tags....lol

In an area I frequent during summer time bear hunting there is a ton of goats I see large groups frequently and there is no permit for that area from what I have researched. I know Trophyhunt goes to the same area and has posted pics of goats he has seen. There should be at least one permit up there and it's in Western WA 653

I'm not a goat bio or expert but im pretty confident there could be more tags available...my experience is from around st hellens and there's no way that area couldn't support at least a couple

So just between mine and your area we could nearly double the odds !!!

  I seem to remember ready somewhere that washington has the highest goat population in the lower 48 states, but hands down has the fewest tags than any state and by a large margin.  Can't remember for the life of me where I read it though

You are correct. WA's goat population is the largest in the lower 48. There are more factors that go into tag numbers than you'd think though. Part of the reason for low tag numbers is conservative management. But also, introduced herds like those in CO, UT, NV, OR and some in MT (Crazy Mountain) herd reproduce at a much higher rate than native herds do (WA and ID.) As a result,states with native herds need to be more conservative in their tag numbers like WA and ID are.

With that said, WA state is obviously VERY conservative and I think a big reason for that is tribal harvest of goats. They simply don't know how many are harvested in a given year for a lot of these herds.

Good info, thank you.  I do know the Yakamas take more goats than we do here in central washington.

[fishngamereaper]

I think they just need to add more goat tags....lol

In an area I frequent during summer time bear hunting there is a ton of goats I see large groups frequently and there is no permit for that area from what I have researched. I know Trophyhunt goes to the same area and has posted pics of goats he has seen. There should be at least one permit up there and it's in Western WA 653

I'm not a goat bio or expert but im pretty confident there could be more tags available...my experience is from around st hellens and there's no way that area couldn't support at least a couple

So just between mine and your area we could nearly double the odds !!!

I know the Alpine Lks could easily handle 2-3 tags. Ton of goats up there, always has been.

[Stein]

If you limit it to one category, your odds of drawing THAT tag go up, but your odds of drawing A tag are the same.  Just think about it, same number of tags and same number of hunters.  Divide total tags by total hunters and the odds simply cannot change unless you reduce hunters or increase tags.  It's just playing games.

The only people that would benefit are the ones that only want to hunt a single species.  If you put in for them all every year it won't matter.

The problem is still numbers.  It isn't 100 people, it is 15,000 and counting.  If there isn't enough tags to clear the top points, point creep will continue to get worse. Limiting it to one category only delays the inevitable truth and it doesn't even fix it in the short term.

There would still be about 3,000 people in each draw with a bunch over 20 points.  Me sitting here with 6 won't ever have any reasonable chance of drawing.  Too few tags.

The only realistic fix is to combine all points into one category.  You can only put in for one including cow and doe tags.  Guys like me will bail on OIL and get our points cleared out frequently.  Guys staying with OIL will have better odds with the downside of not ever drawing any deer/elk/bear tags.  You would have to pick what you want and stick with it.  Incentivize hunters to pull out of the oil draw with easier to draw regular tags.

That's not correct. Because essentially every hunter applies in each of the 5 categories you are essentially multiplying the number of hunters by 5. Say there are 15k applicants for 200 tags but each applicant gets to apply 5 different times, you are actually getting 75,0000 applicants for 200 tags. By making everyone pick a category you are again reducing the pool back down to 15,000 applicants and GREATLY increasing everyone's odds of actually drawing a tag.

I'm saying that 1/15,000 and 1/75,000 both round to a 0% chance of drawing a tag. 

1/75000 = .000133%
1/15,000 = .00067%

Mathematically, the odds went up.  Practically, it made zero difference - you didn't move the needle.  The number of tags is pretty much fixed, the only solution is to remove TONS hunters from the pool - lots and lots of them.  Forcing a choice among only oil tags simply doesn't remove enough hunters.  To make any sort of difference you need to get the odds up to at least single digit % without a 25 year wait to collect points.

There are only a few ways to do this:

Make it a rich man's sport - charge $500 to apply and you won't have 15,000.
Incentivize them to not apply - only have one choice (for all draw tags) and many won't chose to apply for oil.
Don't let them apply - pick birth month and you can only apply once every 12 years.

I hold the only way that is palatable is to force a choice - do you want to draw often, hold out for a great deer tag, hold out for a great elk tag, or hold out for an oil tag - pick one.  The wildlife can't support more than one choice.

[3boys]

Eliminate youth, disabled and over 65 hunts

There is nothing better then youth hunts to get our youth into the sport. Disabled and 65 and over hunts make me proud to be part of the sport. if nothing else provide more opportunity for the youth. Both my sons took a couple deer when they were youth and it was some of the best times of my hunting career. If I could gift my moose tag for this season to my son I would in a minute.

A deer is one thing but a moose. Society is too entitled these days if anything it probably ruins kids from hunting. Kids should be thrilled to get the opportunity to sit in the duck blind with there old man. When they get to shoot moose when there 11 what more do they have to look forward to in the sport.

The youth only get cow moose and there is a very slim chance to be drawn. I love the pics of youth hunters with animals. You can bet they are hooked for life. Now that my sons are 17 and 20 with only a few moose points there chance of getting drawn are slim to none. If they were entitled they would be going on guided moose trips in Canada or Alaska. 

[WAPatriot]

If you put your kids in from the time they were born they are just about garenteed a moose or two. Under the current youth regs. Last year there was a kid that drew two moose tags in three years. I just think it's ridiculous to have so many moose tags for youth. It it was one of two tags fine but there are like 50 or something. I'd love the chance to harvest a cow moose but will propably never draw a tag.

[WAPatriot]

Also I'd be fine with people being allowed to transfer their tags to their kids under 18 or something along those lines.

[Stein]

If you put your kids in from the time they were born they are just about garenteed a moose or two. Under the current youth regs. Last year there was a kid that drew two moose tags in three years. I just think it's ridiculous to have so many moose tags for youth. It it was one of two tags fine but there are like 50 or something. I'd love the chance to harvest a cow moose but will propably never draw a tag.

There are 18 youth moose tags this year.

[WAcoueshunter]

If you put your kids in from the time they were born they are just about garenteed a moose or two. Under the current youth regs. Last year there was a kid that drew two moose tags in three years. I just think it's ridiculous to have so many moose tags for youth. It it was one of two tags fine but there are like 50 or something. I'd love the chance to harvest a cow moose but will propably never draw a tag.

These are all cow tags.  I don't think most people are thinking about cow moose when they talk about the terrible moose odds. 

[Magnum_Willys]

Stein had it right the first time: If you limit it to one category, your odds of drawing THAT tag go up, but your odds of drawing A tag are the same.  Just think about it, same number of tags and same number of hunters.  Divide total tags by total hunters and the odds simply cannot change unless you reduce hunters or increase tags.  It's just playing games.

Draw from one bucket with 20 tickets in it or draw from each of 5 buckets with 100 tickets in each your odds are essentially the same.  With a single bucket Your odds increase for that one bucket but are no higher overall.   No the odds do not remain at 100:1 regardless of the number of buckets - thats just odds per bucket not odds overall. 

[WAPatriot]

18 is way too many. You know I don't think that many African Americans get to shoot moose. Maybe we should make a special category. My point being it ridiculous to have entitled and privilege groups. What is the point of the 65 and over tags. It should just be one class equality. And don't even get me started with the tribes I don't want to get banned again for voicing my opinion about them. Speak bad about the tribes and you will get banned.

[WAPatriot]

I think the best way for the state to do it would be to make it a raffle for all oil tags but have a cap a say 1000 bucks worth of tickets. And make tickets for non res cost 10x