Free: Contests & Raffles.
I'm saying that 1/15,000 and 1/75,000 both round to a 0% chance of drawing a tag. 1/75000 = .000133%1/15,000 = .00067%Mathematically, the odds went up. Practically, it made zero difference - you didn't move the needle. The number of tags is pretty much fixed, the only solution is to remove TONS hunters from the pool - lots and lots of them. Forcing a choice among only oil tags simply doesn't remove enough hunters. To make any sort of difference you need to get the odds up to at least single digit % without a 25 year wait to collect points.There are only a few ways to do this:Make it a rich man's sport - charge $500 to apply and you won't have 15,000.Incentivize them to not apply - only have one choice (for all draw tags) and many won't chose to apply for oil.Don't let them apply - pick birth month and you can only apply once every 12 years.I hold the only way that is palatable is to force a choice - do you want to draw often, hold out for a great deer tag, hold out for a great elk tag, or hold out for an oil tag - pick one. The wildlife can't support more than one choice.
Stein had it right the first time: If you limit it to one category, your odds of drawing THAT tag go up, but your odds of drawing A tag are the same. Just think about it, same number of tags and same number of hunters. Divide total tags by total hunters and the odds simply cannot change unless you reduce hunters or increase tags. It's just playing games.Draw from one bucket with 20 tickets in it or draw from each of 5 buckets with 100 tickets in each your odds are essentially the same. With a single bucket Your odds increase for that one bucket but are no higher overall. No the odds do not remain at 100:1 regardless of the number of buckets - thats just odds per bucket not odds overall.
I do think it should be "one moose tag in a lifetime." Not one bull moose tag and as many cow moose tags as you can draw. If you draw a cow moose tag, even as a youth, that's it, you should no longer be able to apply for a moose tag, period. It wouldn't change the odds much, but it doesn't seem right that some people get to hunt moose more than once in Washington, while most other people never get to hunt moose at all. There should only be one moose category, not an "any moose" and an "antlerless" category. Odds for a cow moose tag used to be reasonable, before they created the separate categories. Now it's easier to draw a bull tag than a cow tag.
I don't know how many different ways I can illustrate this but your math is just plain incorrect. Go get 5 pots with 10 marbles each (9 black and 1 white.) Pick one marble from each pot 10 different times and see how many times you actually draw a white marble. Then go to 1 pot with 2 marbles (1 white and 1 black).
That's just a pessimist viewpoint of it. There are goat and moose tags with odds around 1:300. The archery/muzzie moose tags are 1:100 I believe. Improve those by 20% and you are looking at 1:20 to 1:60 draw odds. Those odds actually give you a statistical chance of drawing a tag in your lifetime which makes this discussion well worth while.
Quote from: bobcat on June 14, 2016, 08:37:16 AMI do think it should be "one moose tag in a lifetime." Not one bull moose tag and as many cow moose tags as you can draw. If you draw a cow moose tag, even as a youth, that's it, you should no longer be able to apply for a moose tag, period. It wouldn't change the odds much, but it doesn't seem right that some people get to hunt moose more than once in Washington, while most other people never get to hunt moose at all. There should only be one moose category, not an "any moose" and an "antlerless" category. Odds for a cow moose tag used to be reasonable, before they created the separate categories. Now it's easier to draw a bull tag than a cow tag.Sorry disagree on youth:So your dad starts putting you in for a youth moose tag when you are 3, you draw a cow permit in the fourth grade as 9 year old. What excitement. Flash forward 10 years - " Sorry son, you can't ever apply to hunt bull moose in this state, dad messed you up with that cow in the 4th grade".We need more youth opportunities not less - youth should Not be penalized for hunting as a youth imo.
But if you limit each hunter to applying for only one category, you now have 10,000 applications for 100 tags. You pick the pot you put your name in and now get 20:2,000 odds or 1:100 odds of drawing.
Youth can apply along with everyone else for OIL. They don't need a separate category. There is just too few OIL permits to go around trying to add several categories to the limited amount of permits.Let the youth have cow elk and doe permits. That will be good enough to get them excited about hunting. (Probably the first and only time I've ever agreed with WApatriot).
Quote from: Curly on June 14, 2016, 09:19:45 AMYouth can apply along with everyone else for OIL. They don't need a separate category. There is just too few OIL permits to go around trying to add several categories to the limited amount of permits.Let the youth have cow elk and doe permits. That will be good enough to get them excited about hunting. (Probably the first and only time I've ever agreed with WApatriot). I could go along with that too. I'm not sure there needs to be a separate youth category for moose. But I'm sure building up points for my daughters in that category! So I'm not sure how they could just do away with it, after people have money invested in the system. Same with all the other categories. I don't like it but I really don't want the system to be changed again. The only change I favor is a waiting period after drawing a permit.