how to fix WA. OIL draw system

[bobcat]

I do think it should be "one moose tag in a lifetime." Not one bull moose tag and as many cow moose tags as you can draw. If you draw a cow moose tag, even as a youth, that's it, you should no longer be able to apply for a moose tag, period. It wouldn't change the odds much, but it doesn't seem right that some people get to hunt moose more than once in Washington, while most other people never get to hunt moose at all. There should only be one moose category, not an "any moose" and an "antlerless" category. Odds for a cow moose tag used to be reasonable, before they created the separate categories. Now it's easier to draw a bull tag than a cow tag.

[huntnphool]

 Very interesting following along in this thread, how many here are going to whine louder when they realize WDFW is giving them exactly what they want?

 It sounds like a good number of you understand that the only viable way to improve draw odds is to increase the number of tags (not going to happen without decimating the herds) or reducing the number of participants.

 So if they (WDFW) can't increase the tags/herd numbers, how do they go about reducing the participants without people noticing what they are doing?

 You start by putting your frog in a pot of room temp water.... http://hunting-washington.com/smf/index.php/topic,196635.msg2609684.html#msg2609684 

[shanevg]

I'm saying that 1/15,000 and 1/75,000 both round to a 0% chance of drawing a tag. 

1/75000 = .000133%
1/15,000 = .00067%

Mathematically, the odds went up.  Practically, it made zero difference - you didn't move the needle.  The number of tags is pretty much fixed, the only solution is to remove TONS hunters from the pool - lots and lots of them.  Forcing a choice among only oil tags simply doesn't remove enough hunters.  To make any sort of difference you need to get the odds up to at least single digit % without a 25 year wait to collect points.

There are only a few ways to do this:

Make it a rich man's sport - charge $500 to apply and you won't have 15,000.
Incentivize them to not apply - only have one choice (for all draw tags) and many won't chose to apply for oil.
Don't let them apply - pick birth month and you can only apply once every 12 years.

I hold the only way that is palatable is to force a choice - do you want to draw often, hold out for a great deer tag, hold out for a great elk tag, or hold out for an oil tag - pick one.  The wildlife can't support more than one choice.

That's just a pessimist viewpoint of it.  There are goat and moose tags with odds around 1:300.  The archery/muzzie moose tags are 1:100 I believe.  Improve those by 20% and you are looking at 1:20 to 1:60 draw odds.  Those odds actually give you a statistical chance of drawing a tag in your lifetime which makes this discussion well worth while.

Stein had it right the first time: If you limit it to one category, your odds of drawing THAT tag go up, but your odds of drawing A tag are the same.  Just think about it, same number of tags and same number of hunters.  Divide total tags by total hunters and the odds simply cannot change unless you reduce hunters or increase tags.  It's just playing games.

Draw from one bucket with 20 tickets in it or draw from each of 5 buckets with 100 tickets in each your odds are essentially the same.  With a single bucket Your odds increase for that one bucket but are no higher overall.   No the odds do not remain at 100:1 regardless of the number of buckets - thats just odds per bucket not odds overall. 

I don't know how many different ways I can illustrate this but your math is just plain incorrect.  The best thing I can tell you to do is test it out for yourself.  Go get 5 pots with 10 marbles each (9 black and 1 white.)  Pick one marble from each pot 10 different times and see how many times you actually draw a white marble.  Then go to 1 pot with 2 marbles (1 white and 1 black).  Pick from that pot 10 different times and see how often you get your white marble.  Statistically you will draw WAY more white marbles in scenario 2 (1 pot) than scenario 1 (2 pots).

Maybe another way that can help you understand is to look at it this way.  I'll use simple numbers for illustration purpose.  Lets say there are 100 quality permits (in 5 different categories) and 10000 hunters applying.  That would give you 20 tags per category.  If every single hunter is allowed to apply for every single category, then there are 50000 applications for those 100 tags.  Yes you get 5 applications, but your application only gives you 20:10,000 or 1:500 odds.  Every single bucket gives you the same odds of drawing, 1:500.  When a name is selected from pot 1, you have 1 name in the pot with 500 other names giving you 1:500 odds.  When a name is selected from pot 2, you still only have 1 name in the pot with 500 other names, still giving you only 1:500 odds.  It continues the same way through all of the pots. 

But if you limit each hunter to applying for only one category, you now have 10,000 applications for 100 tags.  You pick the pot you put your name in and now get 20:2,000 odds or 1:100 odds of drawing.  In pot 1 you have no name, so no chance of drawing.  Same in pots 2, 3, and 4.  But in pot 5 (your chosen pot) you have 1:100 odds of drawing since there are 100 names in the pot and one of them is yours.  Therefore you have improved your odds by 5x from the previous example.

I do think it should be "one moose tag in a lifetime." Not one bull moose tag and as many cow moose tags as you can draw. If you draw a cow moose tag, even as a youth, that's it, you should no longer be able to apply for a moose tag, period. It wouldn't change the odds much, but it doesn't seem right that some people get to hunt moose more than once in Washington, while most other people never get to hunt moose at all. There should only be one moose category, not an "any moose" and an "antlerless" category. Odds for a cow moose tag used to be reasonable, before they created the separate categories. Now it's easier to draw a bull tag than a cow tag.

I 100% agree with you.  Any moose should be an OIL moose. 

[WAPatriot]

The state only cares about money what's the best forumal number of hunter x cost to apply.  As cost to apply goes up number of hunters goes down. What's the forumal I don't know but I know it should be more than 13 bucks and you basically never have a chance at drawing I'd pay a couple hundred bucks if I knew I had somewhat decent odds

[Magnum_Willys]

I do think it should be "one moose tag in a lifetime." Not one bull moose tag and as many cow moose tags as you can draw. If you draw a cow moose tag, even as a youth, that's it, you should no longer be able to apply for a moose tag, period. It wouldn't change the odds much, but it doesn't seem right that some people get to hunt moose more than once in Washington, while most other people never get to hunt moose at all. There should only be one moose category, not an "any moose" and an "antlerless" category. Odds for a cow moose tag used to be reasonable, before they created the separate categories. Now it's easier to draw a bull tag than a cow tag.

Sorry disagree on youth:

So your dad starts putting you in for a youth moose tag when you are 3, you draw a cow permit in the fourth grade as 9 year old.  What excitement.   Flash forward 10 years - " Sorry son, you can't ever apply to hunt bull moose in this state, dad messed you up with that cow in the 4th grade".

We need more youth opportunities not less - youth should Not be penalized for hunting as a youth imo.

 

[WAcoueshunter]

I don't know how many different ways I can illustrate this but your math is just plain incorrect.

Go get 5 pots with 10 marbles each (9 black and 1 white.)  Pick one marble from each pot 10 different times and see how many times you actually draw a white marble.  Then go to 1 pot with 2 marbles (1 white and 1 black). 

Shane, that's what Stein, Magnum, me, and others are all trying to explain to you.   

The pots are a great example.

Each of the 5 pots, after 10 draws, should average 1 white marble per pot.  Each marble should get its turn, on average.  Some will have zero, some will have 2, but you'll average 1 white marble per pot after 10 tries in each.  Add them up, and white got drawn 5 times in aggregate.

In the single pot, after 10 draws, you should also get white 5 times. 
 

[WAPatriot]

Dad starts putting you in at 3 shot you first moose in fourth grade probably shoot another as a youth. Have 27 points by the time your 30 probably draw another cow and then a bull later. That person killed 4 moose by the time there 30. Then that a hunter that dosent have a dad and starts hunting figures out the game and starts applying at age 20 they would be lucky to draw a cow moose tag in there lifetime.

[Stein]

That's just a pessimist viewpoint of it.  There are goat and moose tags with odds around 1:300.  The archery/muzzie moose tags are 1:100 I believe.  Improve those by 20% and you are looking at 1:20 to 1:60 draw odds.  Those odds actually give you a statistical chance of drawing a tag in your lifetime which makes this discussion well worth while.

Sorry man, your math just isn't right.  If you have odds of 1:300 and improve them 20% you get 1:250 odds.  You are simply calculating the odds wrong.

Make it even more simple, two buckets and two guys.  If both put in for both draws, you have the following outcomes:

I draw both (1 way possible)
You draw both (1 way possible)
We each draw one tag (two ways possible)

There are 4 outcomes and you draw a tag in 3 of those outcomes so your chance of drawing A tag is 75%.

Now, change it to a rule where you can only put in for one bucket.  Here are the outcomes:

You apply for A, I apply for B - you draw
You apply for A, I apply for A - you draw or I draw
You apply for B, I apply for A - you draw
You apply for B, I apply for B - you draw or I draw

So, there are 6 outcomes and you draw a tag in 4 which is 66%.  Your odds actually go down because you lost the option of drawing two tags.

[bobcat]

I do think it should be "one moose tag in a lifetime." Not one bull moose tag and as many cow moose tags as you can draw. If you draw a cow moose tag, even as a youth, that's it, you should no longer be able to apply for a moose tag, period. It wouldn't change the odds much, but it doesn't seem right that some people get to hunt moose more than once in Washington, while most other people never get to hunt moose at all. There should only be one moose category, not an "any moose" and an "antlerless" category. Odds for a cow moose tag used to be reasonable, before they created the separate categories. Now it's easier to draw a bull tag than a cow tag.

Sorry disagree on youth:

So your dad starts putting you in for a youth moose tag when you are 3, you draw a cow permit in the fourth grade as 9 year old.  What excitement.   Flash forward 10 years - " Sorry son, you can't ever apply to hunt bull moose in this state, dad messed you up with that cow in the 4th grade".

We need more youth opportunities not less - youth should Not be penalized for hunting as a youth imo.

Okay, I'll give you that. The youth moose tag should not count.

[Curly]

Youth can apply along with everyone else for OIL.  They don't need a separate category.  There is just too few OIL permits to go around trying to add several categories to the limited amount of permits.

Let the youth have cow elk and doe permits.  That will be good enough to get them excited about hunting.      (Probably the first and only time I've ever agreed with WApatriot).

[Magnum_Willys]

But if you limit each hunter to applying for only one category, you now have 10,000 applications for 100 tags.  You pick the pot you put your name in and now get 20:2,000 odds or 1:100 odds of drawing.

You forgot there are only 20 tags in that single category not 100.

[bobcat]

Youth can apply along with everyone else for OIL.  They don't need a separate category.  There is just too few OIL permits to go around trying to add several categories to the limited amount of permits.

Let the youth have cow elk and doe permits.  That will be good enough to get them excited about hunting.      (Probably the first and only time I've ever agreed with WApatriot).

I could go along with that too. I'm not sure there needs to be a separate youth category for moose. But I'm sure building up points for my daughters in that category! So I'm not sure how they could just do away with it, after people have money invested in the system. Same with all the other categories. I don't like it but I really don't want the system to be changed again. The only change I favor is a waiting period after drawing a permit.

[Katmai Guy]

WAcoueshunter, what everybody is forgetting is that the draw is completely RANDOM, you could pull black marbles 5000 times before a white comes up or you could pull white 7 times before a black is pulled.  RANDOM.  The scenario you portrait is in a perfect world, not random.

[Curly]

Youth can apply along with everyone else for OIL.  They don't need a separate category.  There is just too few OIL permits to go around trying to add several categories to the limited amount of permits.

Let the youth have cow elk and doe permits.  That will be good enough to get them excited about hunting.      (Probably the first and only time I've ever agreed with WApatriot).

I could go along with that too. I'm not sure there needs to be a separate youth category for moose. But I'm sure building up points for my daughters in that category! So I'm not sure how they could just do away with it, after people have money invested in the system. Same with all the other categories. I don't like it but I really don't want the system to be changed again. The only change I favor is a waiting period after drawing a permit.

Yeah.  No going back now.  They implemented the category system and it is here to stay.  Can't really get rid of the categories or points now without a huge backlash.  I'd be buying points for my kids too if I had any.

[WAPatriot]

Lets not forget literally everyone apply for moose even if they don't really like hunting that much cause it's so cheap. People apply for there parents children spouses. If you want to improve the odds jack the price up and price out the people who aren't that passionate about hunting moose but apply because heck it's 6 bucks why not.